Sunday was the day of the comeback in NFL. Four teams overcame fourth-quarter deficits to win, including three that clawed back from being down double digits. That happened only six times across the entire 2021 season. We saw onside kick recoveries, spectacular long touchdowns and what might be the longest 2-point conversion in the history of the league.
Let's break down those four comebacks and see how the trailing teams managed to pull out their last-second victories. I'll also try to get a sense of what it means for those teams moving forward. Naturally, I have to start in Baltimore, where we might have seen the league's next great offense announce itself to the world in one spectacular quarter of football:
Jump to a comeback:
MIA over BAL | NYJ over CLE
ARI over LV | DEN over HOU
Miami Dolphins 42, Baltimore Ravens 38
Four hundred and sixty-nine passing yards and six touchdowns. We'll get to the comeback and the receivers and the blown coverages and the controversial calls and everything else that came into play during Miami's massive comeback win over the Ravens, but the single most dramatic performance of Sunday came from Tua Tagovailoa. If I'd told you before the season that a quarterback would throw for 469 yards and six touchdowns in September, how many passers would you have guessed before you got to Tagovailoa? Ten? Fifteen? Twenty?
Let's start here, because this is the first question that came to mind for me after the game ended: Is this enough to say that Tagovailoa is going to be a superstar? Are there quarterbacks with mediocre careers who are even capable of producing ceiling performances like this one? Or is something like this strictly the territory of great signal-callers?
I'll let you decide. Loosening the baseline, here are the other quarterbacks who have 400 passing yards and five touchdowns in a game over the past decade: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Nick Foles, Jared Goff, Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub and Deshaun Watson. If we look back an 11th season, we can add former Packers backup Matt Flynn, who threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns in a Week 17 win over the Lions in 2012. There are a few Hall of Famers in there, a few surefire superstars and a couple of guys who were in great schemes and had great afternoons.
For most of Sunday's game, it felt like the quarterback having the breakout performance was the guy on the other side of the field. When Lamar Jackson kept the ball on a QB power read and took it 79 yards to the house, he appeared to have the Ravens on track for a comfortable victory. Having thrown for three touchdowns before running in this fourth, he was having one of his best games as a pro. The Ravens were up 35-14 with seconds to go in the third quarter. Teams with a 21-point lead at the end of three had won their past 107 contests, with the last such loss coming in 2006.
You know what happened next. Tagovailoa, who had been inconsistent to this point and had thrown two interceptions, had one of the most dazzling fourth quarters we've ever seen. Including a 33-yard completion to Jaylen Waddle on the final snap of the third quarter, he went 14-of-18 for 232 yards and four touchdowns. No quarterback has thrown for four touchdowns in the fourth quarter in 15 years. The last guy to do it was Sage Rosenfels.
It took 21 plays for the Dolphins to score 28 points. Watching those back, you can see a clear plan for how coach Mike McDaniel wanted to attack this defense and how Tagovailoa executed. The scary thing is despite 28 points in 21 plays, the Dolphins weren't perfect; Tagovailoa missed an open Cedrick Wilson for one completion, while the otherwise impeccable Waddle dropped a perfect pass and nearly handed safety Marcus Williams his third interception of the game, only for the pass to fall narrowly incomplete.
After losing cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Fuller in Week 1, the Ravens were forced to promote rookie fourth-rounders Jalyn Armour-Davis and Damarion Williams into meaningful roles for Week 2. It was clear McDaniel wanted to attack Damarion Williams near the goal line, even if it meant back-to-back targets for River Cracraft. Williams was isolated against Cracraft on a drag route and made a nice play on the first snap, but Cracraft eventually ran away from him on a scramble drill to set up Tagovailoa's second touchdown of the quarter.
Armour-Davis had a much more destructive fourth quarter. He was in coverage on the 33-yard completion that ended the third quarter but didn't get anywhere near Waddle as a Cover 3 corner; the star wideout had 9.6 yards of separation when he made the catch, which is about as open as it gets. Armour-Davis was in coverage on Waddle when Waddle caught the winning touchdown, one of two touchdowns he allowed as the nearest defender in coverage during the fourth quarter.
The other was the game-tying throw to Tyreek Hill, which was one of the stranger touchdowns I can recall seeing:
One of the more bizarre coverage busts you'll see from the Ravens on the game-tying Tyreek TD. Show a one-on-one with Hill vs. Jayln Armour-Davis before the snap, Armour-Davis barely budges, Hill runs right by him for the easiest long TD you'll ever see. pic.twitter.com/z9FH63UUo7
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 19, 2022
Armour-Davis barely moves as Hill runs by him. I have to believe he thought he had safety help over the top, but there's not a safety anywhere near him on this play. The Ravens lined up in what looked to be Cover 0 before the snap -- which would have been a terrifying mismatch for Hill anyway -- before bailing, but nobody gets the sort of immediate depth you would expect if they were going to offer safety help over the top. Even if that were the plan, that sort of idea would be dangerous given the speed Miami possesses at wide receiver. This is pitch and catch, and Tagovailoa's throw was perfect.
Hill's other long score in the fourth quarter might not have been a coverage bust, but it was a product of McDaniel and Tagovailoa hammering Waddle over the middle of the field. I'd like to see the All-22 before making any bolder statements, but it looked like Hill ran past the returning Marcus Peters, and deep safety Kyle Hamilton was drawn in by Waddle's deep post over the middle of the field. Hamilton might have been able to help on Hill, which would have mattered, given that Tagovailoa's heave was a bit underthrown. The throw was good enough to beat Peters, though, and Hill brought it in for a 48-yard score.
McDaniel's 49ers teams also had a habit of picking up a big play with a run in a situation where everybody was expecting a pass, with two famous trap plays against the Packers in the playoffs leading to a pair of 49ers victories. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan might have called those plays, but McDaniel pulled out a perfectly timed run to set up the winning score. Chase Edmonds ceded most of the carries in this game to Raheem Mostert, but with 46 seconds to go, Edmonds took a rush off of split zone and ran for 28 yards to set up first-and-goal:
Split zone from the Dolphins with 46 seconds left to set up the game-winning score. Watch how Gesicki coming across the formation (with his man defender following) clears out the gap for Edmonds to hit. pic.twitter.com/O4E4c1DVuS
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 19, 2022
The Ravens didn't do much on offense during this stretch, although they had opportunities. Their first drive of the fourth quarter ended after Jackson was stuffed on a fourth-and-1 in the backfield. Another drive ended after a scrambling Jackson missed an open Isaiah Likely on what would have been a 22-yard completion, one play after Xavien Howard dropped what should have been a pick-six. Baltimore did drive after the tying score by Hill to get into field goal range, but Jackson overthrew Mark Andrews on a third-down big blitz before Justin Tucker gave the Ravens a three-point lead with a field goal.
Lost in the chaos of what happened in the fourth quarter was a moment that ended up changing the game, although it didn't appear to matter as such for most of the contest. Facing a third-and-goal from the 1-yard line, Jackson appeared to plunge in for a touchdown, only for the call to be overturned on review. Jackson then fumbled the snap on the ensuing fourth down from the 1-inch line, with the Ravens turning the ball over to the Dolphins on downs. Miami then drove the length of the field for an impressive touchdown drive. Jackson was great at his best Sunday, but he came up short in several key moments.
As for Tagovailoa, while he had some sloppy moments, he more than held up his end of the bargain. Yes, he has a pair of great wide receivers. Yes, the Ravens were playing a couple of cornerbacks with huge targets on their back. He did an excellent job of getting balls out on time and hitting his receivers in stride, especially during the fourth quarter. He was poised in the pocket, which is remarkable for someone who had such little time to throw during his first two seasons in the league.
The concerns about Tagovailoa's arm strength were always overblown, given what he did during his time at Alabama and the easier explanation about his offensive line issues over the past two seasons. Tagovailoa isn't Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes in terms of arm strength, but even if he underthrows Hill on a pass or two, he isn't going to be held back by his arm.
Does this game prove Tagovailoa is the guy? Probably not. Does it change the way we should think about him? I think so. This game doesn't mean we look at Tagovailoa in a totally different eye or put him in a different tier of quarterbacks, but it does raise the ceiling expectations for what he can be at his best.
There never has been a moment in Tagovailoa's career in which he seemed capable of producing like an MVP candidate for one week, let alone an entire season. He had yet to throw for 300 yards or three touchdowns even once in a win before Sunday, let alone the massive totals we saw from him against Baltimore. There are only a few quarterbacks who have this sort of possibility in their range of outcomes, and now, we know Tagovailoa is one of them.
Dolphins fans have been dreaming of this version of Tagovailoa since 2019, when he was still in college and Miami was Tanking for Tua. Now, after one of the most dramatic comeback wins in recent memory, Miami fans might finally be seeing their dreams come to life. His next miracle would be to topple the Bills in Week 3, and Buffalo has beaten the Dolphins seven straight times, outscoring them 258-123 in the process.
New York Jets 31, Cleveland Browns 30
From the Browns' perspective, this was an example of what happens when two previous moments of genius go wrong. The decision to trade up for kicker Cade York during April's draft looked to be a masterstroke in Week 1, when the fourth-round pick booted a 58-yarder through the uprights with eight seconds left to give the Browns a one-point victory over Carolina. On Sunday, York missed an extra point with 2:02 to go, opening up the door for an unlikely Jets comeback.
The other came with Nick Chubb, because the Browns could have avoided their late-game fiasco if Chubb had repeated one of the choices he made in the past. In 2020, with Chubb about to score a 60-yard touchdown against the Texans, he stepped out of bounds at the 1-yard line. With Cleveland holding a 3-point lead and Houston out of timeouts, the decision allowed the Browns to kneel out the victory, although it cost Chubb's fantasy managers six points.
I didn't think Chubb's decision made much of a difference at the time. The Browns would have had a two-possession lead with 56 seconds to go, even if their kicker had missed the extra point after a would-be touchdown. The only way they could have lost is by giving up a quick score, failing to recover an onside kick and giving up a second scoring drive before the end of regulation, with a field goal sending the game to overtime. A missed extra point after the Chubb score would have allowed the Texans to win by scoring 10 points in the final minute.
Fast forward to Sunday. With 2:02 to go and the Jets out of timeouts, the Browns were 12 yards away from the end zone. Chubb stepped onto the field after a Kareem Hunt carry and ran right toward the first-down marker on the sideline. After making a vicious cut to shed safety Lamarcus Joyner, he had the option of going down inside the 2-yard line, which would have ended the game after three Jacoby Brissett kneel-downs.
Instead, Chubb plowed forward for his third touchdown of the day. I don't blame him for his decision, nor would I blame anybody for scoring with an open field in front of them in those situations. He didn't cost the Browns the game by being great at his job. It was just about everything else that happened after that touchdown that ended up ruining Cleveland's day.
York missed the extra point, but with a 13-point lead, 1:55 to go, and the Jets out of timeouts, it seemed like quarterback Joe Flacco & Co. had no hope of scoring twice in 120 seconds. They needed two breaks. One came on the second play of their subsequent possession, when wideout Corey Davis took advantage of a busted coverage for a 66-yard touchdown. It looked like cornerback Denzel Ward thought he had help over the top from safety Grant Delpit in a two-deep defense, but Delpit's movement suggested he thought Ward was responsible for carrying Davis' route upfield. Either way, the Jets had their first touchdown with 1:32 to go.
Next, after a Browns timeout, the Jets managed to pull off the most difficult piece of the puzzle and recover an expected onside kick. Cleveland would likely generally be happy with how its players handled it, as they moved out of the way and created a clear lane for Amari Cooper. Braden Mann's kick was perfectly timed, though, and with Cooper waiting for the ball 11 yards past the line of scrimmage, New York's Will Parks was able to attack the ball moments before it went out of bounds. Special-teamer Justin Hardee came out of the resulting scrum with the football, giving the Jets a possession with a chance to take the lead.
From then on, the result almost felt like fate. New York still needed to go 53 yards for the winning touchdown, but outside of one absurd pass pressure from Myles Garrett, it marched comfortably up the field. The only third down the Jets faced was their final offensive snap of the game, when rookie receiver Garrett Wilson ran past linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and found the soft spot against a Cover 2 look for his second touchdown of the game. The second was more dramatic, but the first might have been more impressive, with Wilson flummoxing cornerback Martin Emerson at the line with his release before catching an easy fade for a score.
The Browns still had a chance at their own comeback with one timeout and 22 seconds to go, but Brissett threw an interception to end the game. It was a crushing loss for the Browns, who were humming on offense for most of the game, but it's also the second time in two weeks the defense has blown a fourth-quarter lead. Last week, the offense bailed out its teammates. This time around, it didn't happen. Cleveland has outscored its competition by one point in two weeks and is 1-1. That seems fair.
For the Jets, meanwhile, this sort of win is motivational manna for coach Robert Saleh. For a team in Year 2 of its latest rebuild killing time before quarterback Zach Wilson returns from his right knee injury, an against-all-odds comeback victory gives Saleh the ultimate talking point as he continues to build this team's culture. The Jets will face garbage time late in losses in the weeks to come, and Saleh will remind his team of how important it is to play well in moments like this one, knowing that the near-impossible is still possible. Facing a wounded 0-2 Bengals team at home in Week 3, Saleh might like his chances of winning back-to-back games for the first time as a head coach.
Arizona Cardinals 29, Las Vegas Raiders 23 (OT)
Talk about saving a season. Through six quarters, the Cardinals looked to be among the worst teams in the league. They had been outscored 64-21 by the Chiefs and Raiders, with 14 of those 21 points coming in fourth-quarter garbage time against Kansas City. The version of quarterback Kyler Murray who looked shell-shocked during a blowout postseason loss to the Rams appeared to have shown back up for the beginning of the 2022 season, while a string of injuries and suspensions left him throwing to practice-squad receiver Greg Dortch as his primary target. It looked for all the world like the Cardinals were about to drop to 0-2 in advance of a rematch with those Rams in Week 3.
A lot can change in 36 minutes of football, especially if Murray scrambles for about six of those minutes during an incredible 2-point conversion. The Cardinals held the Raiders to a field goal after halftime, scored two touchdown, converted a pair of 2-pointers and then took the second Hunter Renfrow fumble of overtime to the house for a 59-yard touchdown. If not season saved, season certainly revived for Kliff Kingsbury's team.
Murray and the offense got plenty of attention for their comeback, and we'll get to them in a second, but the bigger turnaround between the six quarters of hell and the two-plus quarters of redemption that followed came on the defensive side of the ball. In Week 1, the Cardinals allowed the Chiefs to score touchdowns on their first three possessions of the game and 44 points on nine drives before coach Andy Reid let up. The Raiders followed by scoring on each of their first four possessions in the first half, with Derek Carr & Co. turning four drives into 20 points.
Arizona held the Raiders to a field goal on five possessions after halftime, and even that was only the product of a bad pass interference call against cornerback Marco Wilson. (Wilson did interfere with Raiders wideout Mack Hollins on what ended up as a 46-yard play, but the interference came on a pass that was clearly uncatchable, with Carr's throw landing about 5 yards beyond the receiver.)
The 46-yard pass interference call was the only big play Arizona allowed after halftime, which went a huge way in slowing down the Raiders. After 11 plays gained more than 10 yards before halftime, the Raiders only mustered that pass interference call and an 11-yard gain by Renfrow in overtime. That catch was an example of what had been going wrong for the Cardinals, as they ended up with linebacker Zaven Collins lined up as a hole defender against Renfrow, a severe mismatch. The Cardinals limited those mismatches after halftime.
They also got pressure in those moments where they didn't blitz. They pressured the Chiefs on only 11.1% of their dropbacks when they sent four or fewer in Week 1, a mark that rose all the way to 57.1% during the second half of Week 2. They affected Carr with pressure and the threat of pressure during that second-half comeback, forcing incompletions, checkdowns and quick passes to avoid exposing Carr behind Vegas's offensive line.
The Cards also did a better job of tackling, in part because the Raiders got away from the run. Josh Jacobs broke three tackle attempts on a second down, but after Arizona defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence broke into the backfield and brought down Jacobs for a 4-yard loss with 6:54 to go, the Raiders didn't run the ball again, as each of their final seven plays from scrimmage were pass attempts.
As for Murray and the Cardinals, the long drives we saw in the second half helped gas out the Vegas defense. He was pressured on 30% of his dropbacks during that scoreless first half, but after the break, the Raiders pressured him on only 10% of his passes. A Maxx Crosby sack was wiped off by a holding penalty. It's hardly as if Murray was dominant as a passer -- he averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, posted a completion percentage 5.4% below expectation and finished with a 85.8 passer rating from the third quarter on -- but he did enough to push the offense forward.
Murray also did much more as a runner and scrambler, even without the presence of running back James Conner, who left after the opening drive of the third quarter with an ankle injury and did not return. Arizona's offense looked better with Darrel Williams and Eno Benjamin. The Cardinals incorporated more speed options, including one Williams took for a 30-yard gain at the start of the fourth quarter. This is never going to be an offense that runs the widest variety of offensive concepts, but the Cardinals found a solution by going after Raiders corner Amik Robertson, who was in coverage on Marquise Brown's 24-yard catch in the fourth quarter.
For all the numbers and schematic concepts I can give you, the real story on offense is Murray made a play when the Cardinals had to survive. For the second straight week, they were abysmal on third down, going 3-of-13. Murray and his offense went 3-for-5 on fourth down. Arizona did fail on a fourth-and-1 inside the red zone with 12:37 to go, though, meaning he had to count on scoring touchdowns and picking up 2-pointers on his next two drives.
After converting a fourth-and-4 with a lob to Brown and a Williams touchdown, Murray scrambled for 20 seconds of real time before sneaking into the end zone for a 2-pointer. He scrambled to convert another fourth-and-1 on the next drive at the Vegas 41-yard line, then converted on a fourth-and-goal from the 3-yard line on the final snap of regulation to get the Cardinals within two points. Needing a second 2-pointer to make overtime, Murray found A.J. Green within an incredibly narrow window to tie things up at 23.
The Cardinals still made plenty of mistakes. A 14-yard run by Benjamin was wiped off for too many men on the field, while a 22-yard Murray scamper came back for holding on Green. Brown dropped what should have been a long conversion on fourth-and-1 in overtime after being hit by safety Duron Harmon, giving the Raiders life after they blew their lead and lost the overtime coin toss. After narrowly missing out on Renfrow's first fumble, the Cardinals forced a second one, and Murphy returned it 59 yards for the winning score. There's still plenty to work on and improve, but better to work on those things at 1-1 than at 0-2.
For the Raiders, this was a second straight narrow loss for a team that went 7-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer a year ago. They have looked unstoppable when Carr has time to throw and the pass rush is humming, but the weaknesses along their offensive line and in the secondary have been exposed in other stretches. Star wideout Davante Adams showed off his famed connection with Carr in the opener, but he caught just two of seven targets for 12 yards Sunday, and miscommunication between the two in overtime nearly led to a Cardinals interception.
At 0-2, the Raiders are now in sole possession of last place in the AFC West. Things don't get easier, as they now travel to Tennessee next week before a home game against the Broncos and a road trip to play Kansas City. The season isn't over, but the Raiders desperately need to find some semblance of consistency to start winning games.
Denver Broncos 16, Houston Texans 9
The least interesting and least dramatic comeback of the week is still worth mentioning. The Broncos trailed 9-6 at the start of the fourth quarter amid a dismal performance by their offense and coaching staff, only to be bailed out by a productive fourth quarter from Russell Wilson. (Does this formula sound familiar?)
The Texans were competitive throughout, with their loss coming down to a middling game from their offense. Quarterback Davis Mills averaged 4.7 yards per attempt, while the offense went 3-for-16 on third and fourth down, including zero conversions on their last four drives. Wideout Brandin Cooks dropped what should have been a touchdown on Houston's only trip to the red zone; with even a competent offensive performance, the Texans should have upset the Broncos.
I don't bring that up to suggest the Broncos had a competent offensive performance. Through the first three quarters, Wilson was 9-of-23 for 116 yards and an interception. His completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) during that stretch was nearly 19 percentage points below what an average quarterback would have completed in those same situations.
Wilson wasn't as bad as those numbers suggest, though. His receivers let him down with two drops over that three-quarter span to start the game. He racked up 62 yards on three pass interference penalties, which would boost his yards per attempt from a dismal 5.0 to a more reasonable 6.8 yards per pass. The Broncos also missed Jerry Jeudy, who left Sunday's win in the first half with an injury to his ribs after just nine snaps. Denver, whose receiving depth seemed to be the envy of the league heading into the season, handed regular snaps to Kendall Hinton, Tyrie Cleveland and Montrell Washington on Sunday.
It's fair to wonder how much help Wilson is also getting from his coach. Making decisions on fourth down is only part of the job, but after a disastrous end-of-game scenario in Week 1, it seemed reasonable to expect more expedient decision-making from Nathaniel Hackett in Week 2. As I wrote Thursday, "If it happens once, Hackett is inexperienced. If it happens twice, he's overmatched."
I didn't think we would be getting to the overmatched conversation within a week, but Hackett might have bungled a situation even worse Sunday. The call didn't matter as much since it wasn't the final meaningful snap of the game, but it was an even messier process. Facing a third-and-inches from the Houston 35-yard line trailing by three points in the third quarter, Hackett called for Wilson to hand the ball off to H-back Andrew Beck for what looked like an option with Javonte Williams. The play was stuffed.
In a game in which the duo of Williams and Melvin Gordon averaged nearly 4.9 yards per carry, it's difficult to believe Hackett couldn't have found a playcall to get the ball into the hands of one of his running backs. If that wasn't an option, Wilson and Courtland Sutton were also available. Beck had one career rushing attempt beyond high school before Sunday, and he's not known for game-breaking speed getting around the edge.
After the third-and-inches play failed, Hackett again went into a panic. The Broncos first seemed to think about running a play, only for him to then send his field goal unit on. With the ball on the 36-yard line, they comfortably were in field goal range in the thin air of Denver for Brandon McManus, so it's unclear why Hackett had the holdup. By delaying the decision, though, the Broncos ran out of time. Hackett should have spotted the clock running down and used a timeout, but instead, they committed a delay of game penalty, knocking themselves out of field goal range.
Scarily enough, this wasn't the only time the Broncos struggled with a fourth-down decision. In the first half, facing a fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line, Hackett unadvisedly sent out his field goal unit to attempt a kick, only to also be whistled for a delay of game call. It's possible McManus preferred more space from which to attempt the kick, but even if that's the case, Hackett left a point on the field by sending his field goal team out for a 19-yarder.
If they hadn't scored a touchdown later in the contest, this would be a much bigger fiasco for the Broncos, who could have credibly blamed their first two losses of the season on dismal decision-making by their new coach. By the end of this game, the Denver crowd was counting along with the final few seconds of the play clock so Hackett's offense didn't take another delay of game.
The team eventually bailed out Hackett, but something is wrong here and needs to change. The Broncos cannot go into Week 3 with the same process for fourth-down decision-making, because it's clear whatever they're doing is not working. He can defer the decision to somebody else, have a decision ready before a possible fourth down begins or work more during the week to have a stronger sense of the possibilities and decision-making ready before the game even begins -- or some combination of those three. Denver now has made clearly incorrect decisions and cost itself points in each of the first two games.
Thankfully for the Broncos, their defense has played well over the past six quarters, and the Texans weren't difficult enough opponents to exploit their sloppiness in critical moments. Things are about to get more difficult for Hackett and the Broncos, as they play their next four games against teams that posted a winning record in 2021. With Denver struggling with giveaways and Wilson going through some visible growing pains in his new offense, it can't afford to give away points with more fourth-down puttering.