It is a national tradition to pick breakout players before each NFL season. I have resisted the urge for most of my time here at ESPN, but now I have succumbed to temptation. Nothing is more fun than being right about players being good. Nobody likes being wrong, and it's no fun predicting that players will fall off or decline. In August, before we actually have to see players prove themselves in meaningful football games, it's the right time to be wildly optimistic.
Let's run through 25 breakout candidates in 2022. I've split the players into five archetypical tiers, because this would otherwise be a list of first-round picks from 2020 and 2021. (I've excluded rookies.) There are a few highly drafted players from the past couple of years, of course, but I wanted to focus on a variety of guys from different backgrounds at different points in their careers.
These are my opinions, so while I've tried to use as much evidence as possible to make my choices, there are other players who didn't make this list but could qualify for yours. In some cases, I might think players have already broken out, with many of those guys showing up on my All-Underrated Team from last November.
I'll start with the most notable players in each tier and work my way down. I'll begin with a long look at a quarterback who might be capable of making a bigger leap than anybody this season:
Jump to a tier:
Bench to Supernova
Pro Bowler to Stardom | Starter to Pro Bowl
Rotational to Starter | Post-Hype Candidates
Tier 1: Bench to Supernova
One player who barely played last season but might be an MVP candidate in 2022 belongs in a class of his own. He's not like anybody else on this list, and he's certainly not like the player he's replacing in San Francisco ...
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
There's nobody in the league I'm more excited to see play 17 games than the new starting quarterback in San Francisco. We saw Lance take the field for 178 snaps a year ago with inconsistent returns, but I would essentially throw out those snaps in terms of what we'll see going forward. The 49ers hadn't committed to an offense with Lance, who was dealing with a broken finger on his right hand throughout the campaign while sitting behind Jimmy Garoppolo. The Patrick Mahomes we saw make a spot start at the end of the 2017 season for the Chiefs looked nothing like the guy who torched the league in a full-time role in 2018.
On the personnel side, Lance is the most extreme example of the versatility and plausible deniability coach Kyle Shanahan attempts to get on the field with his ball carriers. When everyone is healthy, Shanahan's 49ers have five eligible players who can either catch a pass, block or carry the football as a running back. Everyone needs to be able to make plays with the ball in their hands.
We saw Deebo Samuel prominently feature in that role last season, but the 49ers have given George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk carries in the past. Kyle Juszczyk does a little bit of everything, with Shanahan scheming him up for big plays as a receiver. San Francisco hasn't been able to keep a running back healthy long enough to count on him as a long-term option, but its biggest investment at the position was signing Jerick McKinnon, who had been a solid receiver with the Vikings, to a four-year, $30 million contact in 2018. When Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk and Juszczyk were all on the field together in 2021, the 49ers generated .175 expected points added (EPA) per play, which would have comfortably been the league's best offense over a full season.
The one position in which Shanahan didn't have a player capable of threatening teams was quarterback, where Garoppolo was a conventional dropback passer. Garoppolo has his strengths, but he doesn't threaten teams with his legs or create huge plays. From 2018 to '21, no quarterback threw downfield less frequently; just 7.2% of his pass attempts traveled at least 20 yards downfield. Lance did so on 18.3% of his 71 attempts a year ago, which would have led the league over a larger sample.
Lance also gives the 49ers solutions for dealing with the changes defenses are making to slow the Shanahan offense. The 49ers have grown into a more diverse and power-focused ground game than the outside-zone-heavy approach his coaching tree is known for, but they still stretch teams horizontally with runs and motion before attempting to attack vertically uphill. They then create quarterback-friendly passing opportunities by using play-action and boot concepts to work away from the flow of the defense as they chase what they expect to be another run.
In the past, the weakside end (the defensive end away from the blocking strength of the offense) would chase down the line on run concepts and attempt to prevent the running back from attacking his cutback lane. The "boot" concept takes advantage of that aggressiveness and runs the quarterback in the opposite direction, taking the end out of the play as a pass-rusher. After seeing quarterbacks such as Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield feast off play-action boot concepts and post career-best numbers in Shanahan-style offenses, defenses began to change their priorities.
Last year in particular, defenses got sick of getting bashed by booting quarterbacks. Instead of sending their weakside end down the line to try to stop the run, coordinators told their ends to run straight at the quarterback. They were happy to trade a few extra yards on the ground for the opportunity to take a free run at an exposed quarterback and either produce a sack or take away an explosive pass play.
I'm not sure if Shanahan saw this on tape in 2020 or saw it coming as a solution in the years to come, but having a mobile quarterback like Lance is the ultimate weapon against this defense. Left one-on-one against Garoppolo, most defensive ends were able to blow up plays. Left alone against Lance, those same ends are going to get embarrassed in open space. He can run past those ends and continue the boot concept, either scrambling for significant gains or finding receivers at one of three different levels.
The threat of Lance puts weakside ends into a torture chamber. It also creates impossible binds for the other linebackers on the field, who will be forced to try to attack those horizontal stretches with the threat of Lance running past them straight uphill. One of the concepts he ran in his first game with the 49ers was QB GT counter, which the Ravens have run effectively with Lamar Jackson. If linebackers are aggressively flowing to try to stop runs outside the tackle box, Shanahan will get Lance going upfield. If they're locked in with the No. 3 overall pick, the 49ers will run the same core rushing concepts that have worked for them over the past few years, but now against less-aggressive defenders.
Of course, what sounds great on paper might not play out in reality. Lance and his playmakers need to stay healthy. He will need to do enough with raw physical traits and his abilities as a vertical passer to make up for his inexperience throwing into NFL-sized windows at the intermediate level. Garoppolo was at his best working the middle of the field, where Lance posted a 25.6 QBR and minus-16.7% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on 33 attempts last season. We could get many spectacular moments from Lance in 2022, but they'll be mixed in with growing pains.
As was the case with Mahomes, projecting Lance to be a superstar in Year 2 is about both the player and what's around him. Mahomes was prioritized by the best quarterback developer of his generation in the draft and got a year to redshirt. He stepped onto the field with the best group of playmakers in football. He might have been an instant MVP candidate with the Jaguars, Giants or Bears, but he had his best chance of succeeding with Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in Kansas City.
Likewise, Lance is the perfect fit for Shanahan, whose best quarterback as an offensive playcaller has been Matt Ryan. Lance unlocks elements of the offense that simply weren't possible in years past and makes life easier for everyone else on the field. He gets to play with the league's best left tackle and the third-best set of playmakers in football heading into the season. Lance is about to have a special season.
Tier 2: Pro Bowler to Superstar
Here, I'm considering players who were either named to the Pro Bowl or who should have been named to the Pro Bowl at any point over the past couple of seasons. These guys are capable of becoming All-Pros and among the best players at their respective positions in 2022. Let's start with a former No. 2 overall pick ...
Chase Young, Edge, Washington Commanders
We're collectively sleeping on Young, who was a deserving Defensive Rookie of the Year pick in 2020 on a 7-9 Washington team that somehow won the NFC East. He played better as his rookie season went along, racking up four sacks, five tackles for loss and eight quarterback knockdowns over his final six games. It was fair to expect him to make a stratospheric leap last season.
Instead, it was a lost year. Young had 1.5 sacks and just four quarterback knockdowns across nine games before tearing his right ACL. Advanced metrics were a little more optimistic, as Young's 18.9% pass rush win rate would have ranked as one of the 20 best among edge rushers if he had played enough to qualify, but he was supposed to have an star-turning season. He did not.
I'm optimistic for 2022. We have a meaningful sample of Young playing at an extremely high level, both at Ohio State and during his rookie campaign. We have a recent example of a Defensive Rookie of the Year returning from a torn ACL in his sophomore campaign to produce a big third season, as Nick Bosa did for the 49ers a year ago. We also have at least some reason to believe Young might be unlocked by better coaching, given that the Commanders just fired defensive line coach Sam Mills during the opening days of training camp.
Coach Ron Rivera has said Young won't be ready to start the season, but we could see one of the league's best pass-rushers hit new highs for the Commanders during the second half.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Rookie tight ends simply don't do what Pitts did in 2021. Adjusting for league size, his 1,026-yard season means he had about 0.8% of the possible receiving yardage in the NFL last season. To put that in context, only three tight ends in NFL history have garnered a higher percentage of available receiving yards around the league during their rookie season than Pitts, who was ahead of Hall of Fame-caliber players such as Rob Gronkowski and Tony Gonzalez.
About the only thing Pitts didn't do was score touchdowns, with the No. 4 overall pick scoring once on 110 targets. Only 14 of those targets came in the red zone, and with him garnering one of the lowest target rates in the league inside the 20-yard line, we can probably guess teams were already looking out for him in those situations. Even if that continues to be true, Pitts should score more often by sheer chance in 2022.
I'm not optimistic about Atlanta's chances this season, but it has a pair of building blocks in Pitts and cornerback A.J. Terrell, a fellow first-round pick who enjoyed this sort of second-year leap to superstardom a year ago.
Orlando Brown Jr., OT, Kansas City Chiefs
The former Ravens third-round pick moved to the left side on a full-time basis after his trade to the Chiefs last season, and the results were mixed. The new Football Outsiders Almanac 2022 suggests Brown allowed only three sacks, but the 26-year-old blew 25 pass blocks, which tied for 16th most in the league. He also committed four holding penalties, although they all came during the first half of the season.
Brown made it to the Pro Bowl for the third consecutive season, but that might have been by default in a conference where so many left tackles either got injured or didn't play on successful teams. He was good, but after spending the full year on the left side for the first time, he has the chance to be great in 2022. The prize for a career year would likely be the largest contract for any offensive lineman in league history, so Brown has every motivation to keep Patrick Mahomes upright in the months to come.
DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
We might need some help from Baker Mayfield for this one. Moore has been one of the steadiest producers in football despite playing with replacement-level quarterbacks over the past three seasons:
DJ Moore has three consecutive seasons with at least 1,100 receiving yards. Here are the quarterbacks who have been throwing him passes over that stretch. pic.twitter.com/4RyvnqWA0c
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) August 13, 2022
The only thing missing from his profile is touchdowns; he has hasn't topped four in a single season. To pick a round number, Moore has three seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards and no more than four scores, something only Brian Blades and Henry Ellard have pulled off. Both Blades and Ellard managed to top four scores multiple times in other campaigns, though, and with Mayfield offering a significant boost on Sam Darnold, I would expect Moore to score more often in 2022.
Pat Surtain II, CB, Denver Broncos
Even the best cornerbacks often struggle as rookies. Some, such as Marlon Humphrey, play in a situational role. Darrelle Revis, a first-round pick and likely future Hall of Famer, was subpar in his debut season in 2007 before making seven Pro Bowl appearances over the next eight years. Occasionally, future stars, such as Jalen Ramsey, will be solid during their rookie campaigns, which portends well for their career to come.
Well, Surtain might have been a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback as a rookie. Entering the starting lineup in Week 2 for an injured Ronald Darby, he played a key role for the Broncos and never gave it back.
Coverage statistics are messy, but just about everyone agrees Surtain was great. Football Outsiders suggests he allowed just 6.0 yards per attempt in his direction, which ranked 20th in the NFL. Pro Football Reference says Surtain allowed 5.7 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 61.3. And NFL Next Gen Stats suggest opposing quarterbacks posted minus-21.8 EPA on throws on which Surtain was the closest defender in coverage, the fifth-best mark in the league among cornerbacks.
Surtain might already be a superstar. As it is, if he improves on what we saw a year ago, he could challenge Ramsey to be the league's best.
Rashan Gary, Edge, Green Bay Packers
After two years in a situational role, Gary was afforded a full-time job by Za'Darius Smith's back injury last season and looked like a No. 1 edge rusher. He racked up 9.5 sacks and 28 quarterback knockdowns, with the latter ranking seventh in the NFL. The six players ahead of Gary all made it to the Pro Bowl.
Gary added two sacks and three knockdowns of Jimmy Garoppolo in the divisional-round loss to the 49ers. ESPN's video analysis suggests he generated the initial pressure of the opposing quarterback on 11% of his pass-rushing opportunities, which ranked 17th in the league, right alongside fellow breakouts Harold Landry and Randy Gregory.
With Smith now in Minnesota, Gary is in position to become one of the league's most impactful edge rushers.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
There certainly have been moments in which Herbert has looked like the best quarterback in football over his first two seasons. His arm strength has given him the ability to fit passes into impossible windows and complete passes other signal-callers wouldn't even dare to attempt. Every one of his receivers is a live target on each dropback. He has exhibited an ability to raise his game in key moments, with that incredible series of fourth-down conversions against the Raiders in Week 18 serving as a prominent recent example.
Herbert has struggled for week-to-week or drive-to-drive consistency at times, but he was remarkably consistent over his first two seasons. After adjusting for the league's passing levels, he improved modestly across the board between Years 1 and 2, with interception rate as the only exception. He also adds value with his legs and throws at one of the highest volumes, so he creates more for the Chargers than a typical quarterback does with the same sort of passing efficiency.
QBR saw a more significant leap from Herbert last season, as he improved from 13th to third in what was a down season across the league for passers. I don't think anybody would argue against him being capable of that sort of season, though he hasn't put that together for four months yet as a pro. With impressive playmakers and yet another first-round pick added to his offensive line, Herbert could garner serious MVP consideration in 2022.
Tier 3: Solid Starter to Pro Bowler
This third tier is for every-down players who are either underappreciated or still developing into impact players at the professional level. They can certainly rise past the Pro Bowl level and challenge for All-Pro work, but I'm comfortable expecting them to hit some level of significant growth this upcoming season.
That starts with a second-year quarterback who entered the league with big expectations ...
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
I'll throw another highly drafted quarterback into the mix before we hit less notable players. Count me in among the people who watched Jaguars tape last year and came away thinking Lawrence was placed into an utterly impossible situation by dismal coaching. There were many moments in which the players around Lawrence either weren't on the same page as their quarterback or weren't executing as expected. The offense was sloppy at best, and his receivers dropped a league-high 6.5% of his throws.
New coach Doug Pederson was able to turn a totally dysfunctional Philadelphia offense into a Super Bowl winner over two seasons with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles. Lawrence was a much better prospect than either player coming out of college, and he showed just enough in 2021 to make me hopeful there's an instant superstar waiting to come out.
We've seen great prospects quickly turn around moribund franchises when given the right coaching, including Andrew Luck with the Colts in 2012 and Joe Burrow with the Bengals a year ago. Freed from the worst NFL coaching situation of the past 20 years, I'm counting on Lawrence to do something similar this season.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots
Undrafted free agent? This is more like it. The Patriots continually have attempted to add pieces at receiver, but they somehow end up relying more and more on their slot target. They spent big to sign Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith last offseason, but it was Meyers who led the team in most receiving categories. He was targeted on more than 24% of his routes and dropped just one of his 125 targets.
This year, it's trade addition DeVante Parker and rookie second-round pick Tyquan Thornton, neither of whom play similarly to Meyers. To follow in Hunter Renfrow's footsteps to go from being a good slot receiver to a great wide receiver, he has to do more in key situations. Renfrow added more after the catch to get above 2.0 yards per route run and became a red zone star, where he scored nine times. Meyers had famously struggled to score before getting in the endzone twice last season.
Camp reports about the Patriots' offense are ominous, but if anyone is a reliable safety valve the team can rely upon, it's Meyers.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns
The Browns already are paying Njoku like a superstar; they franchised him earlier this year before giving him a four-year, $54.8 million contract. It looked like a curious set of moves at the time for a player who has averaged 459 receiving yards and four touchdowns per 17 games as a pro. The contract's first impact was upsetting much more productive tight ends who were now making less money than him
The Browns likely plan to get more out of Njoku by simply using him more often. He was eighth in yards per route run among tight ends last season, but the Browns got him into the passing game for only about 18 routes per game. For comparison, Baltimore's Mark Andrews ran 32 routes per game. With Cleveland thin at pass-catcher after cutting Austin Hooper and Jarvis Landry, Njoku could figure into a much larger share of the passing game.
Jevon Holland, S, Miami Dolphins
Holland made an instant impact after entering the NFL a year ago. The Dolphins used the second-round pick as a rotational player during the first month, but after entering the starting lineup for good in Week 5, Holland missed just 17 of the remaining 775 defensive snaps of the season.
By several key measures, the Dolphins were a top-10 pass defense with Holland on the field and one of the worst pass defenses without their standout safety. Here are their splits by three passing metrics and where they would have ranked among the league's defenses over the full 2021 campaign:
With Holland on the field: 37.9 QBR (fifth); 82.6 passer rating (fifth); 6.8 yards per attempt (ninth)
Without Holland on the field: 54.3 QBR (25th); 99.2 passer rating (27th); 8.1 yards per attempt (32nd)
Holland played as both the free safety and strong safety. On 65 snaps as a pass-rusher, he generated 2.5 sacks, 7 knockdowns and 12 initial pressures, which he accumulated at the fourth-highest rate in football for defenders with at least 50 pass rush snaps. He topped it all off by knocking away 10 passes, the fourth most of any player in football.
Holland might be a version of Jamal Adams who trades some pass-rushing effectiveness for more range in coverage, which would be an extremely valuable player.
Kristian Fulton, CB, Tennessee Titans
The Titans signed Bud Dupree to spark their defense a year ago, but while they improved from 24th to sixth in scoring defense, it wasn't because of Dupree, who had three sacks in an injury-hit campaign. Instead, Tennessee's homegrown draft picks took a step forward. Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry had Pro Bowl campaigns, with Simmons emerging as one of the best interior disruptors in the league. David Long emerged as a solid every-down linebacker, although he missed seven games because of injuries.
Fulton got lost in the shuffle, which is a shame, because he also broke out in a significant way. After a rookie campaign marked by injuries and frustrating play, it looked like he might not be guaranteed regular work in a rebuilt Titans secondary in 2022. Instead, he won a job in camp and held it for the entire season. He missed four games in midseason because of a hamstring injury, but Fulton otherwise allowed a 71.3 passer rating in coverage, per Pro Football Reference.
Football Outsiders credited Fulton with a 68% success rate in coverage, which was the third-best mark among cornerbacks, behind only Bills slot corner Taron Johnson and Falcons star A.J. Terrell. If Fulton can stay healthy for the entire season, he should make it to his first Pro Bowl.
Kwity Paye, Edge, Indianapolis Colts
Paye looked like a different player during the second half of his rookie season. During the first half, he missed the better part of three games because of a hamstring injury and wasn't an impactful pass-rusher when healthy. He didn't rack up a single quarterback knockdown until Week 9, when he had two in a win over the Jets.
From that point forward, he was more noticeable, putting up four sacks and eight knockdowns. Several of those sacks were cleanups as passers moved up the pocket, but he also generated 25 initial pressures as a pass-rusher from that Jets game onward, which was tied for the eighth most in the league.
Paye still needs to be more consistent, but we're seeing signs the 23-year-old can deliver on his spectacular physical tools. He's several steps behind Gary, his former teammate at Michigan, but the goal is for the 2022 version of Paye to look like Gary's 2021 campaign.
Tier 4: Rotational Player to Solid Starter
These are players who weren't consistent starters for their teams last season. They might have Pro Bowl potential, but even emerging as an above-average starter for most of the season in something close to an every-down role would be a welcome development. Let's start with the defending champs, who will have to replace a cornerstone of the Sean McVay era ...
Joe Noteboom, OT, Los Angeles Rams
Andrew Whitworth was supposed to be a short-term solution after signing as a 35-year-old in Los Angeles in 2017, but the former Bengals standout lasted five seasons before retiring after last year's Super Bowl victory. The veteran missed nine total games over those five years, seven of which came in 2020.
The Rams' swing tackle for most of that stretch was Noteboom, who signed a three-year, $40 million deal to stay with the organization this offseason. He wasn't quite as good as Whitworth by ESPN's pass block win rate metric in 2020, but over his longest stretch of playing time, he ranked 17th among offensive tackles by PBWR.
With Matthew Stafford already impacted by a balky elbow, the Rams will rely on Noteboom to keep their veteran quarterback as healthy as possible during their championship defense.
Ernest Jones, LB, Los Angeles Rams
The champs can have a breakout player on the defensive side of the ball, too. A third-round pick in 2021, Jones barely played during the first seven weeks of the season. Inserted into the starting lineup in Week 8 after the Rams traded Kenny Young, Jones seemed to improve with each week. Just as they were about to hit the postseason, though, he went down with a left ankle injury and hit injured reserve, causing him to miss the final two games of the regular season and the first two playoff games.
Jones played 43% of the snaps in the NFC Championship Game, and given another week to rest before the Super Bowl, he was one of the best players on the field. He picked up a sack, three quarterback knockdowns and two tackles for loss and did an excellent job of operating in the middle of field to help take away Joe Burrow's throwing lanes.
He isn't at this level yet, but at his best, he looked like another NFC West linebacker drafted in the third round: 49ers star Fred Warner. Now playing alongside former Seahawks veteran Bobby Wagner, Jones has the potential to be a building block for the Rams.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Cleveland Browns
Few linebackers seem as capable of the spectacular as Owusu-Koramoah, who played 65% of the defensive snaps in his 14 games for the Browns a year ago. The Browns mostly spotted him on first and second downs before taking him off the field in passing situations, but his physical traits were obvious as he attacked the line of scrimmage. The Football Outsiders Almanac noted he posted one of the worst broken tackle rates in football, but he's also simply capable of getting to more tackle attempts than most other players at his position.
Some might argue there aren't many players who even play the same position as Owusu-Koramoah. The 22-year-old drew pre-draft comparisons to safety Derwin James and linebacker Isaiah Simmons. He is closer to the latter than the former, and it's not going to be simple to get the most out of him in a typical role, but there aren't many players who can line up in four or five different spots from drive to drive and look capable of operating in each role.
Dennis Gardeck, Edge, Arizona Cardinals
I wrote about Gardeck's spectacular 2020 season as a small sample pass-rusher in my luxuries column a couple of weeks ago. He wasn't anywhere near as effective while battling injuries in 2021, but if you can rack up seven sacks on 69 pass-rush attempts, you're worth a second look.
Gardeck's role should expand with the departure of Chandler Jones to the Raiders.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
Swift was a better fantasy football player than he was on the field last season. The second-year back ranked 48th out of 50 runners in Football Outsiders' DYAR statistic. When asked to run between the tackles, he generated just 206 yards on 66 carries, with his minus-99 rush yards above expectation (RYOE) on those spots ranking as the second-worst mark in football. His 36% success rate as a runner -- which measures his propensity for keeping the offense on schedule -- was comfortably the worst in the league. If you want to blame that on the offense, consider that Jamaal Williams was much better by those metrics while playing on the same team.
And yet, Swift is going to be exciting because he can catch plenty of passes. The Lions threw him the ball on more than 25% of his routes a year ago, which was one of the league's highest rates. If he can generate more first downs as a receiver after mustering just 18 on 78 targets a year ago, he will be a valuable playmaker for Detroit. If he does more as a runner between the tackles in 2022, he could be a valuable playmaker by anybody's definition of the word.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Bateman is one of the most obvious picks for this year's list, if in part because the Ravens don't have any other options at receiver beyond Mark Andrews. Bateman was closer to solid than spectacular as a rookie, with the Ravens seemingly set on using him in a part-time role. He didn't top 70% of the offensive snaps in a single game until the final month of the year, when he was essentially an every-down player, albeit with a backup quarterback in Tyler Huntley.
Bateman was much better in the situational role. From Weeks 6 through 14, he averaged 1.85 yards per route run. Over the final month of the season, his mark there fell off by more than a full yard, and he was able to command only a 15% target share.
Playing with Huntley as opposed to Lamar Jackson surely hurt his chances, but Andrews produced career numbers with the backup quarterback in the fold. I'm optimistic about Bateman in Year 2, but more playing time didn't help him a year ago.
Tier 5: Post-Hype Breakouts
Finally, I'll finish with players who don't really fit into any of the above groups. These players either had a standout season earlier in their career before falling off or were expected to break out and failed to do so. I'm expecting them to look more like the players people were hoping to see in years past during the 2022 campaign. We'll start with an intriguing offseason acquisition in Kansas City ...
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Let's review. As a rookie in 2017, Smith-Schuster had 917 yards and seven touchdowns while splitting time with Martavis Bryant in Pittsburgh's starting lineup. The following season, he produced one of the most impressive sophomore seasons we've seen from any wideout, racking up 1,426 receiving yards on 111 catches. He averaged 2.2 yards per route run and commanded a target share north of 25% on a team with peak Antonio Brown in the mix. Smith-Schuster looked like the league's next great wide receiver.
Since then, has he played a single game with an above-average quarterback? Ben Roethlisberger came into the 2019 season with an injured elbow and was done for the season halfway through Week 2. Smith-Schuster had a disappointing year, but that was with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges throwing him passes. When Roethlisberger came back in 2020, his zip on the ball was gone; Smith-Schuster still mustered 831 yards and nine touchdowns. His 2021 season was compromised by a dislocated right shoulder.
Now, moving to the Chiefs, Smith-Schuster is playing with Patrick Mahomes. He gives the Chiefs a target alongside Travis Kelce for when teams try to defend them with two-high coverages. For whatever people who don't pay attention want to say about his TikTok presence, he's a tough receiver capable of attacking defenses on slants and crossing routes and should have plenty of space to operate if defenses want to park two safeties in the parking lot. He also had plenty of success attacking down the sideline on fades and back-shoulder throws in 2018 against one-on-one coverage, which he'll see plenty of in Kansas City.
Is it fair to chalk up three disappointing seasons to subpar quarterback play? Not entirely. Smith-Schuster has struggled with injuries, and it's reasonable to wonder whether 2018 was just an incredible outlier as the second receiver in a two-man offense. I don't think we'll see him hit 1,400 yards again, but I would expect an efficient, effective return to form from one of the league's most misunderstood players.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
I'll throw another wideout into the mix with Aiyuk, who entered last season as the 49ers' assumed breakout candidate. Instead, Aiyuk sat on the bench for most of the Week 1 win over the Lions and didn't become an every-down player on a weekly basis until Week 7. Deebo Samuel ended up having a stunning season, and Aiyuk needed a pair of big performances in Week 17 and 18 to get his season-long totals over what we saw in 2020.
After reports that Aiyuk upset Kyle Shanahan in camp last summer, the 2020 first-rounder has received glowing reviews for his work this preseason. I also think Trey Lance's propensity to throw downfield will benefit Aiyuk, who didn't connect with Jimmy Garoppolo on a single pass more than 20 yards downfield in 2021. Aiyuk had three such completions in 2020, but two came from Nick Mullens.
I'm not sure Aiyuk can get the volume to have an All-Pro type of season. Shanahan wants to run the ball. The 49ers are loaded with playmakers, and they've typically played at one of the slowest paces in the league. Then again, Samuel just rolled off a season with 1,770 yards from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns with Garoppolo at quarterback. It wouldn't be shocking if Aiyuk reclaimed the role as San Francisco's No. 1 option in the passing game.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
There's always a risk in counting on running backs coming off serious injuries, but Dobbins is a better bet than most of the alternatives. Dobbins tore his left ACL as opposed to his Achilles, and he has had a full year to heal after he went down during training camp last year. The only other notable back on the roster is Gus Edwards, who also tore his ACL in camp in 2021. Dobbins seems much more likely to be ready for Week 1 than his teammate, who could end up on the PUP list to start the season.
The presence of Lamar Jackson in Baltimore is both a blessing and a curse for his running backs. Jackson's running ability helps slow down linebackers and creates bigger running lanes for his backs, but he also gobbles up carries near the goal line. Mark Ingram served as the primary back for the Ravens in 2019 and carried the ball 202 times for 1,018 yards and 10 touchdowns; those numbers would be an ideal return to form for Dobbins.
Mike Onwenu, OL, New England Patriots
Onwenu, a sixth-round pick in 2020, was a revelation as a rookie. The Patriots started him for 16 games and moved him around the lineup, getting solid-or-better play at left guard, right guard and right tackle. He settled in most often at the latter spot, but with Trent Brown returning to the team in 2021, it looked like the 24-year-old would move to Joe Thuney's vacated spot at left guard.
Instead, Onwenu continued to rotate through the lineup, just without the success. He was forced into work at right tackle for stretches because of injuries, but the Patriots were underwhelmed by his performance. He was close to an every-down player during the first half of the season, but he played approximately 29% of New England's offensive snaps during the second half of the campaign.
My suspicion is Onwenu will be at his best when he lands at one spot on the right side of the line on a full-time basis. With Shaq Mason traded to the Buccaneers, a spot seemed to open for Onwenu at right guard, but the early training camp reports haven't been promising. He has split time with James Ferentz and the immaculately named Arlington Hambright this summer, so it doesn't appear that the third-year player has a starting job locked up.
I'm still optimistic about his chances of being a valuable lineman, but by all accounts, New England is a mess on offense at the moment.
Charles Omenihu, Edge, San Francisco 49ers
Omenihu had four sacks and 16 knockdowns in a situational role for the Texans during their ill-fated 2020 campaign, but the new Houston brain trust didn't see him as an important part of their rebuild. The 49ers traded for Omenihu at the November deadline a year ago, but he saw just 136 defensive snaps after the move.
Now, Omenihu has enjoyed a full offseason working with 49ers defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who has coaxed career seasons out of players who have struggled in other places, including Arden Key, Kerry Hyder and Cassius Marsh.
Omenihu isn't going to take snaps away from Nick Bosa or Arik Armstead, but he might be able to generate five sacks and a handful of pressures in a situational role. Teams that have players like that as their second- or third-string edge rushers make it impossible for opposing quarterbacks to rest. One of those teams -- the 2019 49ers -- nearly rode that sort of deep defensive line to a Super Bowl victory.