There are easy-to-imagine scenarios in which this NFL offseason could be turned on its head and be defined by quarterback movement.
What if Aaron Rodgers demands a trade from Green Bay or opts for retirement? What if the Bucs decide to reload after Tom Brady's retirement and make a play for a proven veteran who could be available via a trade? What if Russell Wilson, whose agent presented a list of teams that the quarterback would be OK with a trade to last offseason, takes it a step further and asks for his departure from Seattle?
There's also a scenario in which inertia prevails and much of the quarterback landscape looks similar going into 2022 as it was in 2021.
Let's take a swing at predicting all 32 teams' 2022 opening day starter, noting that these are just informed guesses. The offseason hasn't even really begun and lots can change, with just one domino impacting several teams:
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Teams with returning starters
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected 2022 starter: Patrick Mahomes
My current plan is to keep this blurb saved somewhere and reuse it for the next 10 years, because Mahomes will be back.
Buffalo Bills
Projected 2022 starter: Josh Allen
Allen is my pick to win the MVP next season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected 2022 starter: Joe Burrow
Burrow has been so good, so soon. It's exciting to think about this Bengals offense taking another step forward.
Los Angeles Rams
Projected 2022 starter: Matthew Stafford
I'm already looking forward to watching Stafford throw more passes to Cooper Kupp next season.
Baltimore Ravens
Projected 2022 starter: Lamar Jackson
A healthy Jackson gives Baltimore one of the highest upsides of any team in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers
Projected 2022 starter: Justin Herbert
Herbert's prodigious talent should make the Chargers a playoff regular in due time. Perhaps beginning in 2022.
Dallas Cowboys
Projected 2022 starter: Dak Prescott
Prescott looked downright superb until a calf injury started to impact him and the entire offense down the stretch. He is good enough for Dallas to compete for the NFC title next season.
Las Vegas Raiders
Projected 2022 starter: Derek Carr
Carr has played some awesome football in recent years. The storyline surrounding him this offseason could be how many millions he signs an extension for, as 2022 is the final year of his current deal.
Arizona Cardinals
Projected 2022 starter: Kyler Murray
While all is not hunky dory between the Cardinals and Murray right now, there have been no signs that the team or Murray are interested in a divorce. He played exceptional football to begin last season.
New England Patriots
Projected 2022 starter: Mac Jones
I suspect Jones is in line for a quantum leap next season after a strong rookie campaign.
Green Bay Packers
Projected 2022 starter: Aaron Rodgers
A decision from Rodgers will come sooner than later, as the Packers need to make critical franchise decisions that tie directly to whether Rodgers stays or goes.
It has been a rollercoaster 10 months since the news first broke of Rodgers' frustrations in Green Bay, but a run-it-back season feels -- at the moment -- most likely. And Green Bay will again be amongst the best teams in the NFL this season.
Philadelphia Eagles
Projected 2022 starter: Jalen Hurts
Philly's three first-round picks and healthy cap outlook give the organization the means to explore any avenue at quarterback this offseason. But I'm of the mind that running things back with Hurts makes the most sense. He made vast improvements last season.
Seattle Seahawks
Projected 2022 starter: Russell Wilson
My antenna is up after Wilson's half measure last offseason to express his openness to playing elsewhere, but there seems to be a push at the moment for at least one more run in Seattle.
Atlanta Falcons
Projected 2022 starter: Matt Ryan
Ryan is scheduled to carry a cap number of $48.66 million in 2022, the largest in NFL history. While that part is a difficult pill to swallow (yes, there are ways for Atlanta to reduce it), Ryan is still an effective starter even as he turns 37 in March.
Minnesota Vikings
Projected 2022 starter: Kirk Cousins
If Minnesota decides it is time to retool the franchise, step one would likely be to add draft capital by trading away Cousins. He has a $35 million fully-guaranteed salary for 2022 -- the final year of his deal -- meaning he has a ton of leverage if Minnesota tries to negotiate an extension (if he doesn't get the offer he wants, he can get his money this season and hit the open market next March).
I've got my eye on this one, but a rerun with Cousins still feels most likely.
Tennessee Titans
Projected 2022 starter: Ryan Tannehill
Tennessee earned the No. 1 seed but has a chance to be a better team with better health on offense and Tannehill playing more like his 2020 self than his 2021 self.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected 2022 starter: Trevor Lawrence
Week 18 of Lawrence's rookie season -- he went 23-of-32 for 223 yards with two touchdowns and no picks -- was a reminder of just how high his ceiling is, and he should be in line for much more success with stability on the coaching staff.
Miami Dolphins
Projected 2022 starter: Tua Tagovailoa
New coach Mike McDaniel made no mystery about what he plans to do: get the most out of Tagovailoa. While there were times when Tagovailoa's future in Miami seemed uncertain, the 2022 plan is to build around him.
Chicago Bears
Projected 2022 starter: Justin Fields
Fields' rookie season was a grab bag of moments that flexed his unique upside and moments that reminded us he was playing in his first NFL season. The circumstances were not ideal amid uncertainty within the organization about the future of leadership (there since has been a general manager and coaching change), and I forecast a big step forward this season.
New York Jets
Projected 2022 starter: Zach Wilson
Wilson, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, showed flashes of what he is capable of last season, and with the resources to vastly improve the cast around him, he could break through this season. I'm optimistic on his future.
Detroit Lions
Projected 2022 starter: Jared Goff
While Goff is not likely to be the long-term answer in Detroit, there's value in what he brings to the franchise right now as it builds off the momentum of a solid stretch of more competitive play in late 2021.
While drafting a quarterback with a pick other than the No. 2 overall selection feels feasible for the Lions, Goff should be in line to run it back as the starter again.
Houston Texans
Projected 2022 starter: Davis Mills
Mills had little to work with during his rookie season. One can make the case that he put together the second-best rookie campaign among quarterbacks in 2021. If this were a different year with a more alluring class of quarterback prospects, the conversation might be different, but Houston has an opportunity to put Mills in a dramatically different position next season with a standout offensive coordinator in Pep Hamilton working with him.
New Orleans Saints
Projected 2022 starter: Jameis Winston
The Saints made a small bet on Winston two offseasons ago, and it turned into an extremely wise investment, as the 2015 No. 1 overall pick was playing solid football (14 touchdowns, three interceptions) at the time he tore his ACL last season.
Winston figures to have a market in free agency, but the familiarity of New Orleans (even with the great Sean Payton gone) makes this the best fit. A quarterback in the first round can't be ruled out, but banking on getting the one you prefer at pick No. 18 is risky business, and Winston can help this team back to the playoffs.
New York Giants
Projected 2022 starter: Daniel Jones
There's no two ways about the fact 2022 is a make-or-break season for Jones. The Giants need to make a decision in regards to his 2023 fifth-year option this offseason. While Jones has been far too turnover prone, the two constants around him in New York have been change and an unpredictable supporting cast from one week to the next.
New coach Brian Daboll helped Josh Allen make the leap in Buffalo and now can attempt it with Jones.
Carolina Panthers
Projected 2022 starter: Sam Darnold
I have no doubt that Carolina will evaluate potential options that could be available via trade, but finding a match won't be easy as it's a seller's market with a weak crop of draft and free-agent options.
Darnold is imperfect -- and frankly, this pick likely doesn't inspire a ton of confidence for Panthers fans -- but Carolina's decision to trade for Darnold and bypass the top quarterback prospects with the No. 8 last year could wind up being a knot that takes another full season to untangle.
Cleveland Browns
Projected 2022 starter: Baker Mayfield
This is the final entry into this category for a reason, because I feel flimsy about this selection. The Browns aren't exactly backed into a corner, but with a guaranteed salary of $18.9 million for 2022, Mayfield won't be easy to move, and it feels an almost untenable situation to have him in a competition for his job with another quarterback.
Teams with new starters
San Francisco 49ers
Projected 2022 starter: Trey Lance
I'm of the mind that it's not a total certainty that Jimmy Garoppolo is gone this offseason, but it feels like the most likely outcome. And that would pave the way for Lance to take the reins after San Francisco used the No. 3 overall pick on him last year. The expectation will be clear: Stay near the top of the heap in the NFC with Lance under center.
Washington Commanders
Projected 2022 starter: Carson Wentz
Commanders fans might be skeptical of this selection -- and with merit given what probably will be an unceremonious ending to Wentz's brief stay in Indianapolis. But this is not the offseason to be in the market for a quarterback if some of the top-line players stay with their current franchise (Rodgers/Wilson), and Wentz would not come at a significant price.
Unless Indy is willing to eat a good chunk of Wentz's compensation for 2022 and take a reduced rate of draft picks, finding a trade will be extremely difficult. And if he is released, Wentz is already due enough guaranteed money that another team could sign him at a reduced rate in a low-risk move.
Wentz is no doubt a polarizing player, and it's fair to wonder whether he'll settle back in as a team's long-term starter. But I think he's still a calculated gamble worth taking.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected 2022 starter: Jimmy Garoppolo
With Lance forecasted as the starter in San Francisco, Jimmy G needs a new home and Pittsburgh checks some of the proper boxes. The Steelers have a massive need, cap space to afford him and are far enough down in the draft order in a class that doesn't offer any surefire quarterback prospects that a veteran trade makes sense to keep this team in the playoff mix.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected 2022 starter: Deshaun Watson
Tampa Bay has plenty of the pieces in place to remain a Super Bowl contender, but its quarterback vacancy is as glaring as any team in the league right now. Watson, who didn't play in 2021, is facing 22 civil cases filed by women who have accused him of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior. The NFL is also investigating Watson's case. There would need to be a resolution in these cases before any trade came into play.
If Watson does become available, though, Tampa Bay would likely need to fork over major draft and/or player compensation to Houston, who will continue to develop Davis Mills. While the Bucs are not assured to acquire a top-flight veteran this offseason to replace Tom Brady, it's the team's most logical path to stay atop the NFC South.
Indianapolis Colts
Projected 2022 starter: Mitchell Trubisky
It feels like a matter of when, not if, Wentz will be released by the Colts, ending a disappointing union that has cost draft capital that prevents them from being as serious a suitor for another top-flight quarterback this offseason (on top of the financial ramifications of the Wentz deal).
Is Trubisky perfect? Far from it. But what the Colts would aim to do is lighten the load of Trubisky with a once-again dominant running game and a defense that can cause chaos. The price would not be significant, and there's enough upside to explore.
Denver Broncos
Projected 2022 starter: Malik Willis
The Broncos are the team most popularly linked to a potential trade for Aaron Rodgers, a concept that picked up even more steam once Nathaniel Hackett, a Rodgers' favorite and his former quarterbacks coach, became Denver's new coach.
Perhaps the Broncos are better equipped than any other team to make an offer to Green Bay, but with Rodgers sticking with the Packers in this scenario, they turn to the draft. The entire class of 2022 quarterback prospects comes with question marks, but Willis offers the most upside among the crew. Denver has the No. 9 overall pick in April's draft.