Editor's note: This story has been updated after the news of Tom Brady's retirement.
With their respective losses in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs, the chatter surrounding two of the best quarterbacks in NFL history pivoted toward an uncertain future. One of those uncertainties cleared up on Saturday. ESPN's Adam Schefter and Jeff Darlington reported that 44-year-old Tom Brady would retire, a dramatic U-turn for a player who has repeatedly said he wants to play until he's 45. With nothing left to prove, we will see an NFL without Brady for the first time since the Clinton administration.
Up north, Green Bay's disappointing loss to San Francisco has set the Aaron Rodgers rumor mill abuzz yet again, with Rodgers admitting after the game that he doesn't want to be a part of any rebuild with the Packers. He is likely to win his second consecutive MVP award, but at age 38 and after an exhausting couple of years off the field, the future Hall of Famer might consider retiring or approach the team about a trade. I can't imagine the Packers bringing themselves to trade away a two-time reigning MVP to open up the job for Jordan Love. Good organizations prepare for any possibility, though, and I'm doing just that today.
Let's use what we know about each organization to try to get a sense of what the Bucs and the Packers -- if Rodgers isn't on the roster -- might do at quarterback in 2022.
I'll start with Brady, whose situation is harder to replace. The Bucs will need to add at least one signal-caller to their quarterback room. I wouldn't be surprised, though, if their 2022 starter was already on the roster ...
Jump to a team:
Buccaneers | Packers
Replacing Tom Brady: QBs on the Bucs' roster
Kyle Trask: As a second-round pick in the 2021 draft, the Buccaneers invested enough draft capital in Trask to suggest that they saw him as a plausible future starter. Granted, they had the last pick in Round 2 after winning the Super Bowl, but teams that draft quarterbacks in this range typically take quarterbacks who eventually get at least some opportunity to start.
Between 2000 and 2020, 11 quarterbacks were drafted within 10 picks of the 64th selection in their respective drafts. Eight of those 11 got a chance to spend at least one season as their team's primary starting quarterback: Andrew Walter, Charlie Frye, Tarvaris Jackson, Chad Henne, Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon, Davis Mills and the most successful quarterback of the bunch -- Jimmy Garoppolo. Ryan Mallett also started eight games over two seasons and had a chance to win the job in Houston. The only quarterbacks in this range who never really got a chance to contribute are the first two picks of the group, Giovanni Carmazzi and Marques Tuiasosopo, who combined to start just two NFL games.
Trask and Vikings third-round pick Kellen Mond fit into that group, and while Mond's future might be subject to the whims of the new leadership in Minnesota, Bucs coach Bruce Arians and general manager Jason Licht are still in place. It's possible they had a stacked enough roster to get aggressive in taking a flier on a quarterback prospect, but I suspect they drafted Trask with the expectation that he would be their first choice to take over from Brady.
Can he be a viable pro quarterback? We don't have any idea at this point. ESPN's Scouts, Inc. noted that Trask had prototypical size and toughness in the pocket while wondering whether he had NFL-caliber arm strength. I wouldn't put too much stock into preseason numbers, but it's hardly as if he was blowing opposing defenses away, as the 6-foot-5 passer completed just under 53% of his passes, averaged 5.7 yards per attempt and posted a passer rating of 60.6 in August.
I'd also point out that while Arians did great work with Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck early in their careers, he didn't play a significant role in drafting either passer. When he got to Arizona in 2013, the Cardinals originally signed Drew Stanton with the idea of making him their starter, only to transition to Carson Palmer when the veteran came available on a salary dump. The Cardinals also drafted quarterback Logan Thomas in the fourth round in 2014, only to move him to tight end after nine pass attempts.
All of this is to say that the Buccaneers have a quarterback prospect of indeterminate quality on their roster, but one they valued on draft day as a borderline NFL starter. Nothing is forcing them to hold on to that prior evaluation if they haven't been impressed by the former Gator, but my suspicion is that Trask will at least be part of a quarterback competition if the Buccaneers don't add a clear No. 1 starter this offseason.
Blaine Gabbert: An Arians favorite, Gabbert was with the Cardinals in 2017 before following his former coach to the Bucs in 2020. He has posted a 108.6 passer rating in garbage time, as the one-time top prospect has thrown just one pass in a Tampa Bay uniform with a lead of less than 20 points. He knows the playbook, takes snaps when the game is out of hand and hasn't injured anybody in practice. He has done his job with the Bucs and earned a Super Bowl ring for his troubles.
Gabbert's physical ability appealed to the Jaguars in the first round in 2011 and encouraged Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers to trade for him in 2014, but Gabbert has a career passer rating of 72.4. Using adjusted net yards per attempt accounting for era (ANY/A+), Gabbert is the worst quarterback in NFL history to throw more than 1,000 passes over his first 10 seasons in the NFL. The optimistic comparison for him finding success late in life might be Rich Gannon, but Gannon was a far more successful quarterback earlier in his career before catching fire with the Raiders. Gabbert should not be an option for the starting job.
Could they draft a QB early?
The Buccaneers pick 27th in the 2022 draft, and they could theoretically add another passer in the first round. Judging by the additions Arians has made as a coach in Arizona and Tampa, it's clear he wants quarterbacks with significant size and pocket presence.
I'm not sure whether 6-foot-3 Kenny Pickett is quite as big as Arians would hope for from a quarterback, and I'm also not sure the Pitt product will even still be on the board at No. 27. I don't think it's likely that the Buccaneers add a Round 1 quarterback to compete with Trask.
Options in free agency
It's difficult for me to believe that Arians would be interested in some of the smaller quarterbacks on the free-agent market, which would eliminate Teddy Bridgewater and Andy Dalton from the list. Arians isn't about to implement a new offense built around a running quarterback, which would keep Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor and likely Marcus Mariota out of the mix.
When you look for free agents who have Arians' desired mix of size and pocket presence, it's really just one quarterback -- and one who would raise eyebrows if he went to Tampa.
Jameis Winston: When Winston left Tampa Bay two years ago, it felt like the right move for all parties involved. The Bucs were ready to move on to Brady. Winston had failed to consistently live up to expectations, and while Arians signed on with Tampa in 2019 and installed Winston as the starter, the result was the first 30-touchdown/30-interception season in NFL history. Winston was high-risk, high-reward in a way that I'm not sure Arians might have been able to take for very long.
Two years later, a reunion might also make sense. Winston is familiar with the people in the building and the offense the Buccaneers are running. He was off to a career-best start under Sean Payton in 2021 before tearing his ACL in late October. With Payton retiring, a return to the Saints might not be as appealing as it once seemed for him. Again, I don't think this move is likely to happen, but you can't rule it out as an impossibility.
Editor's note: Ben Roethlisberger was originally suggested as a long shot option here as well. He has ties to Bruce Arians, and while it was unlikely, there was a non-zero chance he could have gone to Tampa Bay. But Roethlisberger officially retired on Thursday morning.
Potential trade candidates for the Bucs
The trade market could be more fruitful for the Bucs. There's a variety of options available at different price points, ranging from fliers who might not make the 53-man roster to unquestioned No. 1 passers. Their interest level here might depend on how they feel about Trask after a year of practices. I'll start with the biggest name, by far, of the bunch:
Carson Wentz, Colts: If you want to know how Arians feels about Wentz, consider who the then-Cardinals coach compared him to in 2017. Arians admitted that he loved Wentz coming out of school and grouped him with Luck and Roethlisberger, Arians' two best pupils. Given Wentz's size (6-foot-5) and almost fatalistic desire to extend plays within the pocket, Arians would likely love to work with Wentz.
Would the Colts be willing to trade Wentz away after one season at the helm and with no clear successor on their roster? That's another question. In light of their disastrous collapse at the end of 2021, Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard refused to commit to Wentz as his 2022 starter. The Colts dealt first- and third-round picks to the Eagles to acquire Wentz, and even given his end to the season, I suspect they would insist on getting a first-round pick back from the Buccaneers in any deal.
The Bucs would also have to get creative to fit Wentz's deal on their salary cap. He has just under $82 million over the next three seasons. The Bucs could be flexible if necessary, but would they have their own questions about investing in a player who would be on his third franchise in three seasons? Arians might want to push for a Wentz trade, but it wouldn't be without risks.
Jared Goff, Lions: A less expensive option from the top of the 2016 draft would be Goff, who had an uneven season after being unceremoniously jettisoned to Detroit in the Matthew Stafford trade. Goff's final numbers -- a 67.2% completion percentage, 19 touchdown passes, eight interceptions -- look fine, but he averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt and posted a Total QBR of 39.7, right between Taylor Heinicke and Davis Mills.
Goff is realistically more of a reclamation project than a plug-and-play starter at this point. It's clear he has his limitations, but he also has size and a good arm. When he is playing confidently and has the right players around him, he can produce spectacular numbers, as we saw during his best days with the Rams. Goff is not going to excite Bucs fans, but he might be the best option available at a reasonable price.
Drew Lock, Broncos: We're dropping down toward guys who would be in quarterback battles at camp. I'm not sure Lock would even be favored to win a battle with Trask, and what we saw from him in his third season with the Broncos wasn't exactly overwhelming. As a cheap option on the final year of his rookie deal who wouldn't cost much more than a late-round pick, though, his size and arm strength could appeal to Arians as a reclamation project.
Mike White, Jets: You remember that two-week period in which White was the best quarterback in New York, right? He struggled badly in throwing four interceptions against the Bills, but when he wasn't playing the best defense in football, the 26-year-old looked like he belonged in the NFL.
Remember: White went 37-of-45 for 405 yards with three touchdowns (and two picks) in helping the Jets beat the Bengals, who are one win from advancing to the Super Bowl. At 6-foot-4, it's not as if he's lacking for size or strength, either. I could absolutely see the Bucs taking a flier on him.
Replacing Aaron Rodgers: QBs on the Packers' roster
Jordan Love: All of the drama surrounding Rodgers dates back to the Packers unexpectedly drafting Love with the 26th pick in the first round of the 2020 draft. I'm not sure general manager Brian Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur could have anticipated exactly how vociferously Rodgers would react to Love's selection, but they also must have known that drafting Love was going to set the end of Rodgers's career in motion. In turn, that tells us how confident the organization must have been that Love was a great quarterback prospect.
Through two years, we haven't seen much. He didn't play at all in 2020. In 2021, he appeared in six games, with his lone start coming against the Chiefs after Rodgers was ruled out because of COVID-19. Love was bad in the only meaningful action of his career. He got better as the game went along and led a late touchdown drive to make things close, but he finished 19-of-34 for just 190 yards with a touchdown and a pick.
It would have been great if Love had excelled in his time on the field, but struggling through two seasons in limited time doesn't preclude him from succeeding in the future. If anyone should know this, it's the Packers, who went through this exact scenario with their current starter. Through his first two seasons, Rodgers was just 15-of-31 for 111 yards with an interception. His most notable game time came in garbage time against the Patriots, with the future superstar going 4-of-12 for 32 yards and breaking his foot in the process.
Rodgers was more promising filling in for Brett Favre in a 2007 loss to the Cowboys, and when he finally inherited the starting job in 2008, he was one of the league's best quarterbacks. We can't necessarily say that Love will follow down that same path because Rodgers struggled early in his career, but it's also a reminder that we don't know very much about Love after his first two seasons.
We also don't know how the Packers feel about Love behind closed doors, but I suspect their decision regarding Rodgers would tell us everything we need to know. If they trade Rodgers, it tells us that they think Love is still a superstar quarterback prospect. For whatever plans they had two years ago, Rodgers is about to be a back-to-back MVP. The only way they are trading a quarterback playing at that level is if they get a franchise quarterback in return or believe they have one already on their roster in Love.
Kurt Benkert and Danny Etling: These two practice-squad passers would be in play only if Rodgers left and Love suffered an injury during the 2022 campaign.
Benkert got an opportunity to step onto an NFL field in December when he kneeled down twice to end a win over the Bears. Etling, a seventh-round pick of the Patriots in 2018, has been on seven different practice squads after leaving New England in 2019.
Could they draft a QB early?
With Love on the roster, it seems exceedingly unlikely that the Packers would draft anything more than a developmental quarterback in 2022.
The Packers -- who own the No. 28 selection in April's draft -- could theoretically come away with high draft picks as part of a Rodgers trade, but I don't think they would use those selections on another quarterback.
Options in free agency
If the Packers trade away Rodgers and don't get a quarterback in return, they would probably use free agency to go after a passer who could push Love while also accepting the likelihood they'll end up in a reserve role. There's one free agent who stands out as a quarterback the Packers could target based on LaFleur's past ...
Marcus Mariota: In 2018, when LaFleur served his lone year as an offensive coordinator with the Titans, Mariota was his quarterback. Mariota posted a 53.2 Total QBR, which ranked 19th in the league. An injury at the end of the season cost Mariota a chance to start in a play-in game against the Colts in Week 17, with the Titans losing after turning to Gabbert. (Somehow, Gabbert figures into every quarterback situation.)
After spending two years as a little-used backup in Las Vegas, Mariota might prefer to try to find a job in which he has a more realistic path to long-term work. Given the presence of LaFleur and the uncertainty surrounding Love's actual ability, though, Green Bay might be a more open opportunity than it seems. Mariota might not have the superstar ceiling many hoped after he left Oregon in 2015, but his work in Tennessee suggested he is a competent starting quarterback, which could look pretty good surrounded by the talent LaFleur has amassed in Green Bay.
Nick Mullens: LaFleur can get plenty of intel on Mullens from both a former co-worker in Shanahan and his brother, Mike, who was San Francisco's passing game coordinator while Mullens was in San Francisco. Mullens was thrust into the starting lineup in 2018 when Jimmy Garoppolo and C.J. Beathard suffered injuries and delivered an impressive performance in a win over the Raiders.
Mullens, 26, has been inconsistent over the ensuing seasons and didn't show much in a COVID-19-induced spot start for the Browns in December, but he is competitive and familiar enough with this offense to step in as a No. 2 quarterback. If the Packers are sure Love is their man, Mullens would be a reasonable choice as his backup.
Brian Hoyer: The longtime Patriots backup spent time with San Francisco in 2017, starting before the franchise traded for Garoppolo. Hoyer's work with the 49ers wasn't exactly sterling, but if the Packers want to add a veteran to help mentor their young quarterback, he makes some sense here.
Potential trade candidates for the Packers
The trade options for the Packers are more complicated, in part because it's unclear whether those trades might include Rodgers going the other way. It's possible we see a deal like the Matthew Stafford pact from a year ago, in which the Lions got a couple of first-round picks and a new quarterback in Jared Goff. The Packers might also send Rodgers off in one deal and make a separate trade to go after another quarterback.
There's a wider tier of quarterbacks who might work for Green Bay, based on what it ends up doing with Rodgers.
Carson Wentz, Colts: Wentz has his limitations and injury issues, but his arm strength, competitiveness and size appeal to a lot of NFL coaches. The Packers might also see an opportunity to acquire him at a relatively low cost after his end to the 2021 season.
It's probably more likely he ends up with the Buccaneers, but the possibility of swapping Rodgers to the Colts for Wentz and draft picks (or young players) would allow Green Bay to send its star quarterback to the AFC.
Derek Carr, Raiders: Likewise, if the Packers wanted to ship Rodgers to the AFC West, it wouldn't be impossible to imagine them getting Carr back as a veteran option to take his place. Carr has been an above-average quarterback for several seasons, and as he enters the final year of his contract, he would be a smaller step down for the Packers than the one they would likely experience with Love as their starter.
Carr has been criticized in the past for being relatively conservative as a passer, but those arguments don't apply any longer. Over the past two seasons, with limited receiving options outside of tight end Darren Waller -- who missed chunks of 2021 because of injuries -- Carr's offense has produced 50 plays of 30 yards or more. That's nearly as many as the Chiefs (51) over that same timespan.
It's possible the Packers could flip Carr for additional picks, but he would be a reasonable replacement in the short term if they want to give Love more seasoning.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers. The Packers aren't trading Rodgers to San Francisco, but it's entirely possible they send Rodgers away in one deal and use some of the draft capital they've netted to go after Garoppolo. The offense the Packers run shares many similarities with what the Niners do under Kyle Shanahan.
Garoppolo's trade value for 2022 will be fascinating. On one hand, he has struggled to stay healthy. He has often been a secondary piece in a run-heavy offense. The 49ers also have precious little leverage given the presence of No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance on their roster. It's one thing to draft a quarterback at the end of the first round, as the Packers did, but the 49ers used three first-rounders to get Lance. And while Rodgers responded by winning MVP, Garoppolo produced a solid, unspectacular season before suffering a thumb injury.
And yet, Garoppolo is one win away from making it to his second Super Bowl in three seasons! There absolutely are people around the league who think he's a franchise quarterback, although they might not all be willing to back up those opinions by trading a significant draft pick to acquire him. The 49ers probably wouldn't want to trade him to their playoff rivals, but what if they outbid the competition?
Kirk Cousins, Vikings. Speaking of deals a team might not want to make, we don't typically see teams trade quarterbacks within their division, with a few exceptions. The Eagles traded Donovan McNabb to Washington for a second-round pick in 2010, which is probably the most notable example of a team going against this rule. The Packers aren't trading Rodgers to the Vikings, but if they ship Rodgers elsewhere, would the Vikings consider trading them Cousins?
In a vacuum, I don't think there's any question the Packers would want Cousins. LaFleur was the quarterbacks coach in Washington when the organization took Cousins in the fourth round of the 2012 draft. When asked about his former pupil in 2020, LaFleur didn't mince words, saying that Cousins "was an elite quarterback." The Vikings have run a version of the Shanahan offense under Kevin Stefanski, Gary Kubiak and Klint Kubiak over the past three years, and while Cousins has disappointed at times, he ranks 16th in QBR over that timeframe.
Like anything, Green Bay's interest in Cousins might depend on the price. There could be a meaningful trade market for Cousins, but if that's not the case, the Vikings might just try to move on from him to clear out cap space. If that's true, the Packers could loom as a logical landing point. Gutekunst would have to perform some cap gymnastics to get Cousins on the roster without giving the 33-year-old a meaningful extension, but there's a universe in which Cousins and the Packers could be a fit.
Baker Mayfield, Browns. Let's finish with another unlikely option. Mayfield is another quarterback with experience running the Shanahan offense, having done so the past two seasons under Stefanski in Cleveland. The results have been decidedly mixed. He looked like a franchise quarterback as the Browns made a push into the 2020 postseason, but while dealing with a shoulder injury in 2021, he wasn't quite as impressive. The most likely scenario seems to be the Browns letting Mayfield play out his fifth-year option in 2022.
If the Browns were the team that put together a huge package for Rodgers, though, it would make sense for the Packers to ask for Mayfield as part of the return. (To be clear, it would still take multiple first-round picks alongside Mayfield to get a deal done.)
While the Packers would need to restructure Mayfield's deal to reduce his base salary, trading for him would give the Packers a legitimate contender to compete with Love and a quarterback who has played well when the pieces around him are right. If the Packers want to have their cake and eat it too by trading Rodgers to the AFC, picking up multiple first-rounders and landing a quarterback who could be their long-term starter without blocking Love, making a move for Mayfield might be the way to make that happen.