NFL playoff conference championships: Previews, bracket schedule, X factors and overreactions for 49ers-Rams, Bengals-Chiefs

It doesn't get a whole lot better than that. The NFL's divisional-playoff weekend produced four of the most entertaining games of the entire season. All four were decided on the final play, and all four featured elite-level quarterback play. In the end, however, the NFL's 2021 season is down to four teams.

The NFC Championship Game will showcase the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium, site of Super Bowl LVI, while the AFC Championship Game will match the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs. The games will include three division winners and one wild-card entrant into the NFL's 14-team playoff format. You're going to hear everything you can possibly imagine about them over the next four weeks, so for now, let's make a first run through the matchups.

Let's explore how each team can win next week, identify the biggest things to watch for in each game and update each franchise's chances to win Super Bowl LVI. Kevin Seifert will provide matchup previews and X factors for each game, and Dan Graziano will judge the biggest overreactions from the four divisional-round winners. Let's jump in.

Note: Game lines are via Caesars Sportsbook. Predictions are from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).

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Overreactions for each team
Super Bowl chances

Seifert's AFC Championship Game preview

(4) Cincinnati Bengals at (2) Kansas City Chiefs

3 p.m. ET, Sunday, Jan. 30, CBS

Opening line: Chiefs -7 (53.5)
Football Power Index prediction: Chiefs (69.5%) by 7

What to watch for: The Bengals clinched the AFC North in Week 17 with a wild victory at home over the Chiefs, a 34-31 win in which they torched the Chiefs' defense with 475 total yards. Quarterback Joe Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdown passes, and for a moment, it appeared the Bengals had exposed the Chiefs' permanent flaw. The Bengals have exceeded expectations all season, but winning the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium -- against a team that has played in the past two Super Bowls -- would be quite an accomplishment.

Why the Bengals will win: Simply put, Burrow is on a tear. He has completed 52 of 71 passes in the playoffs, good for a 73.2% completion percentage. That's the highest such rate of any player in his first two playoff games in NFL history, with a minimum of 50 attempts. He's also the first player in league history to complete at least 70% of his passes in each of his first two career playoff games, with a minimum of 10 attempts in each. He hasn't been perfect, especially when facing a strong pass rush. But when your already-strong quarterback shifts into a higher gear in the playoffs, truly anything is possible.

Why the Chiefs will win: No matter how well the opposing quarterback plays, the Chiefs can reasonably expect Patrick Mahomes to match or exceed the performance. When Bills quarterback Josh Allen threw two touchdown passes in the final two minutes of regulation Sunday, Mahomes answered with 10 points of his own during the same time period. And when overtime arrived, Mahomes reminded everyone who the king is and continues to be, leading Kansas City to a huge 42-36 win. When you have the best player at the most important position, you have to be feeling pretty good about yourself!

X factor: The Bengals' offensive line. It's a minor miracle that Burrow walked off the field healthy Saturday in Nashville, let alone the victor (Cincinnati won 19-16). The Titans sacked him nine times, including eight when they sent their standard four-man rush. That was the highest total of sacks in an NFL playoff game using that number of rushers in the past 15 seasons, per ESPN Stats & Information research. The Bengals' line won't face quite as fierce a matchup as it did against the Titans, but it's hard to imagine Cincinnati outscoring the Chiefs if Burrow takes anywhere close to a similar number of sacks.

Seifert's NFC Championship Game preview

(6) San Francisco 49ers at (4) Los Angeles Rams

6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, Jan. 30, Fox

Opening line: Rams -3.5 (46.5)
FPI prediction: Rams (59.4%) by 3

What to watch for: The 49ers have dominated this NFC West rivalry over the past three years, winning six consecutive games over the Rams. That includes a 31-10 beatdown in Week 10 and a 27-24 overtime victory in Week 18, during which the 49ers fought back from a 17-3 halftime deficit. Can the 49ers do it a third time? Historically, it has happened more times than you might realize. Since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, there have been 22 instances of a team winning both regular-season games and then meeting a third time in the postseason. One of the teams has completed a three-game sweep 14 times, most recently in 2017 when the Saints swept the Panthers. The 2020 Saints are the most recent team to lose the third matchup after winning the first two, against the Buccaneers.

Why the 49ers will win: There is no doubt the 49ers have a comfort level playing against the Rams, and especially in SoFi Stadium. Their Week 18 win came in front of tens of thousands of 49ers fans who bought up tickets from a still-growing Rams fan base in Los Angeles. In fact, the Rams were concerned enough about a repeat that they reportedly are limiting online ticket purchases to fans with local addresses. If you're looking for more of an X's and O's explanation, consider that the 49ers forced Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford into four of his 17 interceptions this season. In his six career games against the 49ers, Stafford has thrown five picks (his teams went 1-5 in those games).

Why the Rams will win: There will be plenty of discussion this week about the Rams' offensive options with Stafford, as well as receivers Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. But we should focus on the fact that the 49ers' offense is coming off a pretty miserable performance in Green Bay, having managed only a pair of field goals in a 13-10 win. And with receiver Deebo Samuel (foot) and left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) hobbled by injuries, the Rams' defense has a good chance to control this game. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald and edge rusher Von Miller give the Rams a distinct advantage. They're coming off a game in which they accounted for 14 of the Rams' 17 pressures against Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady. Brady had four completions on 14 attempts and took three sacks on those snaps.

X factor: The kickers. If the close nature of games during the divisional weekend is any indication, kickers could play a key role in determining who goes to the Super Bowl. In that case, it should be noted that the 49ers' Robbie Gould owns the NFL record for the most field goal attempts (20) without a miss in postseason history. His streak of 20 consecutive field goals is the third longest in NFL history, according to Elias Sports Bureau research. The Rams' Matt Gay had a great season himself, converting 32 of 34 field goal attempts for a 94.1% rate, the second highest in the league. But Gay did somewhat bizarrely come up short on a 47-yard attempt that would have made Sunday's 30-27 win at Tampa Bay a bit less agonizing.

Graziano judges overreactions

The NFL season is winding down, and so are the overreactions to each weekend. Only three games remain. That's the bad news. The good news is that if the divisional round was any indication, there's a chance the last three games are going to be awesome.

We have spent a season in this space playing around with things we thought we knew or didn't know. We've been right on some, wrong on others, but we've had a lot of fun with it, which is what matters. This is sports, remember? Supposed to be fun. With the season almost over, we bring you overreactions one more time, with one for each of the four teams still left standing.

The Chiefs are the clear Super Bowl favorites

The two best teams left in the playoff field played a nightcap for the ages, a 42-36 Chiefs victory over the Bills that put the cherry on top of the most exciting weekend of playoff games in NFL history. Three touchdowns and a field goal were scored in the final two minutes of regulation. Buffalo's Josh Allen threw two touchdown passes to Gabriel Davis, each of which probably would have won any other game in which the opposing quarterback was a mortal.

In between, Patrick Mahomes threw a dazzling touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill to give the Chiefs a brief lead. Mahomes got the ball back with 13 seconds left, down by three points, and somehow moved the Chiefs into field goal range, where Harrison Butker hit the kick to tie it.

With both defenses gassed, the teams and the officials met at midfield for one of the most important coin tosses in recent sports history. The Chiefs won it, and moments later, Mahomes found Travis Kelce in the end zone for the touchdown that sent the Chiefs to their fourth straight home AFC Championship Game.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Please read this disclaimer: Yes, of course the Bengals can beat the Chiefs next Sunday. They just did it three weeks ago (though not at Arrowhead Stadium). The Bengals will have an extra day of rest, and the Chiefs could well be physically and emotionally spent. And yes, whoever wins the NFC could absolutely beat the AFC champion. No one is underrating or underappreciating any of the teams left in the field.

All of that said ... there were 13 seconds left, and it was still too much time for Mahomes. He is the absolute best there is at quarterback. Kelce and Hill are the most reliable and dynamic of offensive players. They have enough playmakers up front on defense to hold up even if they remain banged up on the back end. The Bills have one of the league's most loaded rosters, came in hotter than anyone and landed every single punch they needed to win the game with Josh Allen and their offense. The Chiefs just found a way. And they have players who almost always seem to find a way this time of year.

The only quarterback who has knocked the Chiefs out of the playoffs over the past four seasons is Tom Brady, who's no longer in the field. Joe Burrow could join him, sure, but until we see it happen, we have to consider the two-time defending AFC champ the favorite among the four teams left.

Joe Burrow is already a top-five quarterback

The legend grows. The Bengals' second-year quarterback was sacked nine times Saturday, but his team still managed to beat the Titans. Under siege from the pass rush all game, Burrow nevertheless went a tidy 28-for-37 for 348 yards. He was intercepted once, but that ball hit his running back in the hands and popped up in the air. He didn't throw a touchdown pass, but there was only one of those total in Saturday's two games.

Burrow hung tough despite taking a beating, made the throws he needed to make when Tennessee's turnovers gave him the opportunities, and moved the Bengals into winning field goal range at the end. After a blistering finish to the regular season, his numbers have been less dazzling in the two playoff games so far. But it's clear he's the sun around which this team revolves, and his connection with college teammate Ja'Marr Chase is unreal.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. I mean, I guess if Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers retire, maybe? But otherwise, we're not (yet) putting him ahead of either of those guys or Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr all threw for more yards this season. All of those already mentioned, plus Dak Prescott, threw more touchdown passes. Burrow finished 12th in Total QBR. Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson both had down years, but both have enough in the bank to warrant spots on the list or at least consideration.

Let's be clear here, for those who are still reading and haven't already tweeted some unnecessarily angry reaction at me: There is literally no bigger Burrow fan in NFL media than the person writing these words. I am all-in on Burrow as the real deal, a legit burgeoning force in the NFL for years to come. Heck, I think he can win the Super Bowl now. And I fully recognize that he's still playing and all but two of the guys I listed aren't. My guess is that's what matters to him, which is another reason to love him. He'll be on this list soon enough. In the meantime, let's enjoy what we're seeing and not worry about where he ranks.

There's no way the 49ers beat the Rams for a third time

It's tough to remember now, but these playoffs could have been a lot different. The 49ers had to wipe out a 17-0 Rams lead in Week 18 just to make the playoffs, where they've already knocked out the Cowboys and the Packers. It was the second time this season that the Niners beat their division rivals from L.A., and the sixth time in a row going back to the 2019 season.

If ever a team was due to beat another team, it's the Rams against the 49ers this week. Sean McVay's crew is favored to do what the Buccaneers did last season with the Saints -- beat a team in the playoffs after losing to them twice in the regular season.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. Are you kidding? Of course the 49ers can beat the Rams again. Sean McVay is 47-1 as a coach when his team leads at halftime, and the one loss is that Week 18 game a few weeks ago. Kyle Shanahan has his former assistant coach's number.

And did you not watch the Rams blow a 27-3 lead to the Buccaneers on Sunday before winning it with the now-mandatory last-second field goal? The Rams are loaded with stars on both sides of the ball. Aaron Donald and their defense should make life miserable for Jimmy Garoppolo. But there's no way you watched Matthew Stafford and that offense operate in the second half Sunday and came away believing you can actually trust them in a big spot. The Rams are the better team, but so were the Packers.

The Niners will be playing their third straight playoff road game, but it's their shortest trip so far and they're 8-3 in road games this season. Pick the Rams if you want, but underrate these 49ers at your peril. Just ask the Packers: It's a bad idea to let them hang around.

Odell Beckham Jr. is going to get a big contract in free agency

Cast off (if somewhat by request) by Cleveland midway through the season, Beckham landed in Los Angeles and has six touchdown catches in 10 games as a Ram. He had six catches for 69 yards in Sunday's 30-27 victory over the defending Super Bowl champs, and he flashed some of the dazzling playmaking ability that captivated everyone during his early years in the league.

Especially because Robert Woods suffered a season-ending injury right after the Rams signed Beckham, he has been a valuable part of their passing game since he arrived. And he seems to be enjoying himself as much as he has since he arrived in the NFL. As a result of the way Beckham and the Browns adjusted his contract when Cleveland released him, his deal voids 10 days after the Super Bowl, and he will be a free agent after this season ends.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. I guess it depends on what you mean by "big." I doubt Beckham gets Amari Cooper-level money. While you can see by watching the games that he has specific value in the Rams' offense, his numbers since arriving haven't been eye-popping (he has five games under 40 receiving yards). Again, it doesn't appear he minds, because he's finally winning at a level he never has before. But this passing game runs through Cooper Kupp, and no one else is really going to post big numbers as long as that's the case.

Beckham's acceptance of his role -- along with McVay's ability to feed him touchdown passes -- is a point in his favor when negotiating with teams this offseason, and I think he will do well. Though the best thing for him and the Rams might be for him to re-sign with them. Woods' injury could absolutely stretch into next season, and so far this marriage looks meant to be.

ESPN's FPI: Each team's chance to win the Super Bowl

• Chiefs: 35.1%

• Rams: 33.4%

• 49ers: 20.8%

• Bengals: 10.7%