Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season has finally arrived, and seven teams are still vying for the three remaining playoff berths. All seven will either clinch with a win or need a win to stay in the mix. For the Chargers, it's as simple as win and in (though a tie also would get it done). A victory also would clinch a playoff spot for the Colts, 49ers and Raiders, though those three teams also have paths to the postseason that involve a loss. And finally, the Saints, Steelers and Ravens need to win to have even a shot at the playoffs -- but all three also need some help elsewhere.
So how do the teams that need to win on Sunday get there? Let's run through game plan keys to victory -- one offensive and one defensive -- for all seven teams in must-win or nearly must-win situations in the final weekend of the regular season. We'll focus on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. (We have a lot of head-to-head tape to work with, thanks to multiple division matchups.) Additionally, clinching scenarios are detailed below for each team, which are listed from best to worst chance to make the playoffs via ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
Here are the game-planning focal points for the seven teams still in the running for a playoff spot, starting with the Colts.
Jump to playoff contender:
BAL | IND | LV | LAC | NO | PIT | SF
What the Indianapolis Colts need to do to win at Jacksonville
The Colts will clinch a playoff spot with a win -- but they also can get in with losses by the Steelers and Chargers and a Bills win. ESPN's FPI is giving the Colts a 79% chance to win and an 81% chance to make the playoffs.
1. Feature running back Jonathan Taylor on 11 personnel run schemes
When you get to this point of the NFL season and are in a must-win game, you lean on your top personnel and staple concepts. For Indy, that means heavy run-game volume for Taylor. In the Colts' Week 10 win over Jacksonville, Taylor posted 116 rushing yards on 21 carries, and it was primarily outside zone runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE). It allowed Indianapolis to run the ball with efficiency against the Jags' "big nickel" fronts (three safeties in the game), including a pair of explosive Taylor rushes. The second-year back finished with 14 carries out of 11 personnel in that game, and I would expect more of the same on Sunday, with the league's rushing leader seeing 20 to 25 touches.
2. Make Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence work post-snap
The Colts have to get after the rookie quarterback here. In his past four games, Lawrence has thrown one touchdown and seven interceptions, and his Total QBR during that stretch sits was 27.6. The decision-making has been poor, and Lawrence has struggled to read underneath defenders. The Colts will give Lawrence multiple fronts -- with linebackers Darius Leonard and Bobby Okereke mugged up -- and late rotation in the secondary. That means showing pressure, dropping out and clogging the middle-of-the-field throwing lanes. And this Indy defense isn't going to play chalkboard Cover 2 all day. With more man coverage on third down (51.4% of coverage snaps over the past three weeks) and a rising blitz rate, this unit will bring the heat and challenge receivers at the line. Make Lawrence read it out from the pocket while also dictating the tempo with pressure.
What the San Francisco 49ers need to do to win at L.A. Rams
The 49ers will make the playoffs with a win or a Saints loss. ESPN's FPI is giving the Niners a 35% chance to win and a 60% chance to make the playoffs.
1. Run split-flow zone schemes
We don't know if it will be Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance at quarterback on Sunday, but either way, we should expect the 49ers to lean heavily on Kyle Shanahan's run game. In the Niners' Week 10 win over the Rams, Shanahan went all in on running the football, racking up 44 rushing attempts. It was a clinic on controlling game tempo, with Deebo Samuel, Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson Jr. all contributing. And while we know Shanahan wants to press the ball to the perimeter in his run scheme, the 49ers had 24 rush attempts inside the tackles in that first matchup. We should see zone concepts -- with split-flow -- to dig out the backside edge defender, which in turn creates downhill run lanes for ball carriers to get north and south. And from that, Shanahan can set up the play-action throws to hit the second-level windows on in-breaking routes.
2. Scheme their defensive fronts in passing situations
Given the lack of depth at the cornerback position, the 49ers have been very defined on defense this season. It's a zone-heavy scheme, with a mix of split-safety and single-high coverages. But Rams coach Sean McVay will have answers for that, carving out voids for QB Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp. So I would look for the 49ers to use tilted fronts with linebacker Fred Warner walked up to create a five-man surface, especially on money downs. That allows you to get the one-on-ones you want with edge rusher Nick Bosa and creates opportunities to use twists and loopers to generate interior pressure. Remember, Stafford has been really loose with the ball the past two weeks, turning it over six times. Let's eliminate his ability to throw with rhythm from a clean pocket.
What the Los Angeles Chargers need to do to win at Las Vegas
The Chargers will make the playoffs with a win or a tie. ESPN's FPI is giving them a 58% chance to win and a 58% chance to make the playoffs.
1. Target single-high coverage in the red zone
Having a meaningful and efficient run game with Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson is a critical part of this matchup. But so is the Chargers' ability to target single-high coverages in the red zone. Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will sprinkle in some 2-high looks, but based off Las Vegas' coverage trends and what it did in the first meeting between these two teams, the Chargers should prep for more Cover 1 and Cover 3 (three-deep, four-under zone) coverages when they advance the ball into scoring position. Quarterback Justin Herbert can take the isolation matchup with wideout Mike Williams here on back-shoulder throws, but the ability of the Chargers to influence second-level defenders in zone also needs to show up. Grab those eyes at the linebacker level to create a window for Herbert to target wide receiver Keenan Allen on seams and in-breakers. And don't forget about Ekeler matched up with Raiders linebackers. Angle routes, wheels and quicks to the flat all work.
2. Match safety Derwin James Jr. in coverage with tight end Darren Waller
The Chargers will need an answer for Raiders wideout Hunter Renfrow on third down -- I would bracket him -- and limiting running back Josh Jacobs on the ground is crucial. But Waller is expected to return from a knee injury, which is a big boost to the Raiders' passing offense -- and a problem for the Chargers. I want to see James in coverage here. The Chargers safety has true coverage traits with the fluid movement skills and physical style to match up with Waller. In the Week 4 head-to-head game, Waller caught four of seven targets for 50 yards and a score, but James undercut an out-breaking route late in the fourth quarter to close out the Chargers' win. James has the disruptive ability to impact all phases of Brandon Staley's defensive game plan, and keeping Waller in check is a key part of that. This Chargers defense plays more man coverage than you think, so take away the middle of the field and challenge the tight end in the Raiders' bunch sets.
Derwin Time.@DerwinJames #BoltUp
— NFL (@NFL) October 5, 2021
📺: #LVvsLAC on ESPN
📱: https://t.co/8FTJfKj4Ze pic.twitter.com/fWb4URMq1e
What the Las Vegas Raiders need to do to win vs. L.A. Chargers
The Raiders will make the playoffs with (A) a win, (B) a tie and a Colts loss or (C) losses by the Colts and Steelers. ESPN's FPI is giving the Raiders a 42% chance to win and a 49% chance to make the playoffs.
1. Find wide receiver Hunter Renfrow on third down
Through Week 17, Renfrow has caught 31 passes on third down, the second most in the league behind Minnesota's Justin Jefferson. Renfrow is a nuanced and savvy route runner with the lateral change-of-direction ability to shake coverage. And when quarterback Derek Carr is faced with a third-and-medium situation, Renfrow will be a prime target. It's not just one-on-one stuff, either. Las Vegas will scheme for Renfrow, using Hi-Lo concepts versus zone coverage while working to get him free access off the ball against man. Expect bunch and stack sets there, with pre-snap movement to get him loose. Converting on third down wins football games, and how the Raiders deploy Renfrow there on Sunday night is key.
2. Break their own defensive tendencies
Bradley's defense registered a blitz rate of 12.9% over the first 17 weeks, the lowest in the league. But when these two teams played in Week 4, that number jumped to 26.1%. That's a tendency breaker, and it needs to happen again on Sunday night versus Herbert and this L.A. passing game. Bring an extra rusher. Send the slot corner. Use some five-man pressure, out of both zone and man looks. Defensive end Maxx Crosby will have a matchup advantage against the right side of the Chargers' offensive line, and that will allow Bradley to play his staple coverage calls. But in a big spot, I would like to see a more aggressive defensive call sheet, especially in critical down-and-distance situations.
What the New Orleans Saints need to do to win at Atlanta
The Saints need to win and get a 49ers loss to make the playoffs. ESPN's FPI is giving the Saints a 62% chance to win and a 40% chance to make the playoffs.
1. Create defined throws for quarterback Taysom Hill off play-action
In his past three starts, Hill has a Total QBR of 38.2 on traditional dropback throws. He's a beat late in seeing it there. But when we look at the play-action numbers during that stretch, Hill's Total QBR jumps dramatically to 91.7 (albeit on just 12 such attempts). More defined throws off play-action will give Hill second-level windows to target and boot schemes that can get him to the edge, which I believe will help the Saints create productive pass-game opportunities against the Falcons' zone coverages. Combine that with run-game volume for running back Alvin Kamara, Sean Payton's screen packages and the designed rushes with Hill that cater to his ball carrier traits, and the Saints have something that can work.
2. Win the boundary matchups against Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson
In the Week 9 game between these two teams -- a Falcons win in New Orleans -- Dennis Allen's New Orleans defense gave up two explosive play throws with Patterson deployed as a wide receiver flexed into the boundary. And on both of those throws, the Saints worked to get numbers in the middle of the field with robbers and lurkers. I would do the same to cut and limit crossers, but when you dedicate bodies to take away in-breaking routes then you have to win outside the numbers. Keep an eye on the matchups here, as Patterson can set up linebackers in coverage or use his vertical stretch ability to beat defensive backs when isolated as a one-on-one target for Matt Ryan.
What the Pittsburgh Steelers need to do to win at Baltimore
The Steelers will make the playoffs with a win and a Colts loss, as long as Chargers-Raiders doesn't end in a tie. ESPN's FPI is giving the Steelers a 60% chance to win and an 8% chance to make the playoffs.
1. Run downhill with running back Najee Harris
Given the limitations of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and this Steelers passing offense, I would feed Harris on Sunday in Baltimore. But the run-game scheme matters here too. Harris is a physical volume runner, a grinder who lacks the high-end explosive traits to consistently bounce the ball to the edge. So let's get downhill, like Harris did this past Monday night in a win over the Browns, logging 27 carries on rushes between the tackles for 182 yards. That's where he can win with vision, light feet and the finishing ability to tack on yards after contact. Run DUO concepts and inside zone, and sprinkle in some counter or power schemes. Go old school with a running back who can easily handle 25 to 30 touches.
NAJEE HARRIS. #HereWeGo #CLEvsPIT pic.twitter.com/MqglDUEf51
— NFL (@NFL) January 4, 2022
2. Heat up Ravens QB Tyler Huntley
With Lamar Jackson still out, Huntley will take the ball again for the Ravens' offense on Sunday. But I don't expect the defensive template of the Steelers to change. I anticipate another blitz-heavy defensive game plan from the Steelers -- just like we saw in Pittsburgh's Week 13 win over the Ravens. In that game, Pittsburgh blitzed Jackson on 16 dropbacks, limiting him to 4-of-10 passing and a Total QBR of just 1.5 on those snaps. So look for Pittsburgh to heat up Huntley this weekend with five- and six-man blitz schemes. It also will create more one-on-ones for edge rusher T.J. Watt against the Ravens' offensive tackles that I fully expect him to win.
What the Baltimore Ravens need to do to win vs. Pittsburgh
The Ravens need a win along with losses by the Colts, Chargers and Dolphins to make the playoffs. ESPN's FPI is giving the Ravens a 40% chance to win and a 3% chance to make the playoffs.
1. Take the throws that are available when facing pressure
Let's stay with the pressure narrative, because there were throws to be made against the blitz when we look back at the Week 13 tape. And I really think that's a key part of this matchup for Tyler Huntley as a pocket passer. Yes, there will be opportunities for him to escape and extend plays when Pittsburgh dials up pressure, but Huntley also must take the throws that are available. Hit the unders and the shallows. See it fast and get the ball out to counter pressure.
2. Force Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger to throw into tight windows against man coverage
We mentioned the run-game volume for Harris above, and limiting his production and fitting gaps from the second level of the defense is going to be a big part of this football game. But when the Steelers do throw the ball, I'd go man-heavy in this one. Why? Think about the Steelers' passing game with Roethlisberger right now. There are a lot of quicks, unders and outside fade balls. Baltimore has to challenge that stuff, playing single-high man, mixing in some 2-Man and using a robber safety to lie in the weeds. That will allow the Ravens to cut those quick in-breakers and force Roethlisberger to be precise with the ball. And as we know, pressure is a big part of the defensive DNA with Wink Martindale in Baltimore, which can take advantage of Roethlisberger's deficient movement traits at this stage of his career.