Predicting NFL Week 13 upsets and fantasy football sleepers, plus buzz and notes around the league

It's Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season, and we asked our insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for insight on the biggest news and for their picks on games and players to watch this weekend.

This week's slate concludes with a massive Patriots-Bills Monday Night Football matchup in Buffalo (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) that has big implications for both the AFC East race and the overall AFC playoff picture. Can Mac Jones outduel Josh Allen to stay perfect on the road? Graziano and Fowler take a closer look at the matchup with the biggest keys to the game -- and who will win. Plus, they pick out their top upset watches for Week 13.

But they won't stop there. Graziano and Fowler also pick teams currently sitting outside the top seven that will end up making the playoffs. They also look at coaches and players who have a lot to prove down the regular season's final stretch. And for fantasy managers looking to make all the right moves, our insiders name must-start sleepers. They get into all of it, emptying their notebooks with everything they've heard this week, including the latest on Amari Cooper's availability for Thursday and injury updates for Russell Wilson, Deebo Samuel, Dalvin Cook and D'Andre Swift.

Let's get started with the upset picks of the week, but you can also jump to other big questions.

Jump to:
Keys to NE-BUF | Playoff sleepers
Most to prove | Upsets | Fantasy starts
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

What's the biggest key to Monday night's pivotal Patriots-Bills showdown -- and who will win?

Graziano: Turnovers will be the biggest key. These teams rank second and third in the league in turnover differential, but Buffalo has committed more turnovers (11) over the past four weeks than any other team in the NFL. New England's 12 takeaways during that same time period, meanwhile, lead the league. If the Bills can't get the turnovers under control, they will be playing directly into the Patriots' hands. The Titans rushed for 270 yards in Foxborough on Sunday and lost by 23 points because they turned the ball over four times. Because of these trends, along with the season-ending injury to cornerback Tre'Davious White, I am picking the Patriots to win this game.

Fowler: That's a good place to start, Dan. For me, who gets the early lead is huge. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen can get hot if he starts that way. But if the Patriots take a lead, then that sophisticated defense can take advantage when Allen starts pressing. Coaches league-wide see Allen as a big momentum guy -- incredibly hard to stop when he starts feeling it and figures out his protections pre-snap. But if the defense gets the upper hand on him or Buffalo can't handle the blitz packages, Allen might look like he did in the AFC Championship Game in January -- running around aimlessly, hoping for a big play that's not there.

Graziano: I talked to Titans offensive lineman Rodger Saffold III before they played the Patriots on Sunday, and he told me something interesting about their approach: Since you have no idea what the Patriots are going to look like on defense from week to week, it's important for everyone on the offense to keep their eyes open on the first drive. That way, when they get back to the bench after the first drive, they have a bunch of data to give the coaches and can plan around what they now believe the Pats' defensive approach will be for the rest of the game. Of course, the Titans then went out and turned it over four times, meaning either it didn't work or they took themselves out of the game.

Fowler: That's some great info. And that's what New England wants: frustrate an offense enough that it overcorrects with mistakes. The Bills' defensive plan without White is a key theme to watch. Levi Wallace is a classic overachiever, turning a $1.75 million flier contract into two interceptions and eight pass deflections. The perfect Bills defender, in other words. And Taron Johnson is one of the NFL's better slot corners. But seventh-rounder Dane Jackson will be thrust into a pivotal role in a big moment. The Bills like him but won't truly know what to expect until Monday night. I have Buffalo taking this one and reclaiming the top spot in the AFC East.

What's your top upset pick for Week 13?

Graziano: Washington (+2.5) over the Raiders. Ron Rivera's crew is on a little bit of a roll, with playoff hopes renewed thanks to a three-game winning streak and five of its last six games scheduled against NFC East foes. I don't know whether Washington can hold it together long enough to actually get into the playoff field, but I think the defense and quarterback Taylor Heinicke can keep their ball-control, winning ways going against Vegas.

Fowler: Steelers (+3.5) over the Ravens. I know, I know, the Steelers are a mess. They can't run the ball. They struggle to go deep. Players are questioning Pittsburgh's practice methods. Ryan Clark obliterated his old team's defense on Get Up! the other day. But this is typically when Mike Tomlin does his best coaching -- when things are messy and team culture wins. I'm expecting a bounce-back. And Baltimore might just be the team that a struggling defense needs to face. The Ravens haven't eclipsed 17 points since Week 6.

Graziano: The Ravens just keep finding ways to win close games. You wonder how long that can hold up, and certainly it's not as though they've never suffered a tough loss in Pittsburgh. But man, with edge rusher T.J. Watt likely to miss the game, it's hard to see how the Steelers might slow down a fully healthy Lamar Jackson.

Which team currently outside the playoff picture will make the postseason?

Graziano: Indianapolis Colts. If they had managed to hold on against the defending Super Bowl champs, they wouldn't even be in this conversation, because they'd already be in the playoff picture. But Indy gets a layup against Houston this week and then a critical late-season bye in Week 14 to recharge for their final stretch. Frank Reich has his team playing well, and the formula of winning behind running back Jonathan Taylor should be something the Colts get back to easily now that the Bucs aren't the opponent anymore.

Fowler: Dan, you stole my pick and must take a penalty lap. A few weeks ago, I would have said Indy or Seattle, the latter of which you can't pick now after a brutal three-game slide. So I'm gonna go with the Las Vegas Raiders. They are 6-0 when quarterback Derek Carr throws for 300-plus yards, and Carr has shown the ability to put 300 on just about anybody. The Raiders are always good for a few curious performances, but if they can get hot, they can still get the inside track on the AFC West. The defense is better under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.

Which player or coach has the most to prove during the regular season's final six weeks?

Fowler: Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule. This pick is a bit unpredictable, and as far as coaches go, Chicago's Matt Nagy or Minnesota's Mike Zimmer would be safer. Even people inside Carolina's building probably would have said in an honest preseason moment that this is not a 10-win team. Seven or eight victories is more of a sweet spot.

But Rhule, sitting at 5-7 in Year 2, could use some positive momentum entering 2021, and how his team responds over the final five games will be telling, win or lose. Rhule has a distinct, somewhat rigid style and plan that worked for him at Baylor and Temple. The Panthers believe it will work for them long term. But I'm told it has been an adjustment for some Panthers veteran players who weren't used to it, and I'm curious how they play over the final weeks of the year -- and whether they will buy in or go through the proverbial motions.

Graziano: Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay. The Rams have hit the skids, losing three in a row since the Von Miller trade everybody thought would vault them into a new stratosphere. The offense looks stale, and only so much can be blamed on the loss of receiver Robert Woods. McVay and QB Matthew Stafford need to get things together, finish strong and make a deep playoff run to prove to everyone that their ballyhooed marriage can be what we all expected it to be.

Fowler: Good call. Also on the coaching watch list here: Denver's Vic Fangio, who has done a solid job under some Year 3 pressure. He might need to sustain the momentum to secure 2022 as the head guy.

As far as players, how about Rams receiver Odell Beckham Jr.? Can he be the team's missing piece? There are big implications here for his free-agency outlook.

Graziano: And of course, Jalen Hurts, the Eagles QB who was on such a roll heading into Week 12 and then laid an egg against the Giants. Hurts is still working to prove to the Eagles that they don't have to use any of those three first-round picks they have in the 2022 draft (assuming the third comes over from the Colts) to find a long-term answer at QB. Audition in progress, no conclusion yet reached.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 13?

Graziano: Devonta Freeman, RB, Baltimore Ravens. Did you see what Joe Mixon just did to the Pittsburgh run defense? I'm not saying Freeman is Mixon at this point in his career, but only the Seahawks and Jets have allowed more fantasy points per game to running backs over the past four weeks than the Steelers. Things are falling apart fast in Pittsburgh, and with T.J. Watt likely to miss the game due to COVID-19 protocols, the Steelers' defense should be no match for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' rushing attack.

Fowler: Jamaal Williams, RB, Detroit Lions. With D'Andre Swift out, the Lions can maintain their run-first style of play with Williams. They have no choice; they can't pass the ball consistently. Williams should have at least a few chances at a big play or a touchdown.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• Here's what I know about the Seattle situation: Quarterback Russell Wilson's finger injury has had a bigger impact than anyone could have thought. He fought to return four weeks after surgery but is clearly struggling from the pocket and probably returned too early. In the short term, his rhythm and timing when deciphering the defense is off. How could it not? That was major surgery that affects how the ball comes off his hand. Wilson is not mailing it in and is eager to find a solution, which could include using his legs, either throwing on the move or rushing for first downs. The Seahawks can't run the ball like they had planned, so Wilson might need to move around more. This is a pretty level-headed team that doesn't plan to feed into the storylines about the end for Wilson or coach Pete Carroll. The defense has improved, so if Seattle can just manufacture a few scores, it believes it can still get on a roll.

• Star Lions running back D'Andre Swift has a slight AC joint separation and will possibly miss multiple weeks. He could return in Week 14, but as the Lions sit with zero wins, they could choose to rest a top player. Swift already has proved he's the lead back of the future with nearly 1,000 total yards and six touchdowns.

• The estimates I get on Vikings running back Dalvin Cook's absence after asking around to Minnesota folks is three-plus weeks, meaning the Vikings hope he can make the Dec. 20 game against Chicago (22 days from the injury) but know it could linger beyond that. They do take solace in Cook's recovery from a shoulder separation in 2019, when he returned after a 21-day absence to thwart the Saints for 94 yards and two scores in a playoff win.

• The 49ers are optimistic that their stars on both sides of the ball -- receiver Deebo Samuel (groin) and linebacker Fred Warner (hamstring) -- will miss only a week or two. It will depend on rehab and comfort, but both injuries are considered short term.

• While four of the highest-paid running backs -- Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook -- are all hurt for extended periods, the back who didn't get the big contract is still doing it. Melvin Gordon III's 2019 holdout backfired, as he never got a big-money extension from the Chargers, but he's finishing a two-year, $16 million contract on a high note, with 605 rushing yards and seven touchdowns (two receiving). Because teams can usually escape those lengthy extensions after two years anyway, Gordon's path doesn't look so bad: Make a clean $16 million while sharing a backfield with an impressive rookie (Javonte Williams) and preserving worth for 2022 free agency. Perhaps Gordon can get another $8-10 million in his late 20s. He turns 29 in April.

Graziano

• Cowboys receiver Amari Cooper has already missed the 10 days he was required to miss as an unvaccinated player who tested positive for COVID-19. That 10-day window spanned two games, both of which the Cowboys lost. But the possibility that Cooper could miss a third straight game this Thursday against the Saints points at the fluidity of the COVID-19 protocols. Cooper was still feeling the effects of the illness on Tuesday, and coach Mike McCarthy said Cooper was unlikely to play Thursday if he couldn't practice by Wednesday. Cooper still has to show he's free of symptoms and go through a ramp-up program of activity overseen by doctors before he's cleared to return. The Cowboys might have to play another game without him.

• You might have been surprised to see practice squad call-up Cody Hollister start alongside Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at receiver for the Titans against the Patriots on Sunday, but don't be surprised if it continues. Titans coaches wanted to give Hollister (who was with the team in camp before getting injured) a big role in the game plan because they see him as a dependable option. Their offense is shredded by injuries with running back Derrick Henry and wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones on IR, so they're basically looking for receivers who can play anywhere in the formation and run any route they need. Hollister was second on the team to Westbrook-Ikhine in targets (four to five), and he was the intended receiver on the interception Ryan Tannehill threw in the end zone. The Titans ran the ball on 63% of their offensive plays Sunday, which is run heavy even for them. In games in which they throw more, Hollister could be a factor until Brown and/or Jones are able to return.

• If you're wondering whether the Panthers can or would try to get out of Christian McCaffrey's contract by cutting or trading him, you're wasting your time. As of this past March, $8.1 million of McCaffrey's $8.4 million 2022 salary became fully guaranteed. Cutting him would result in a dead-money charge of nearly $27 million on the Panthers' 2022 salary cap, a significant increase from his currently scheduled cap number of $14.3 million. At the end of this season, McCaffrey will have played just 10 of a possible 33 games since signing that big extension in the 2020 offseason. But the Panthers have little choice but to hope he stays healthy and build around him in 2022. After 2022, it would become a lot easier. None of his 2023, 2024 or 2025 salaries are guaranteed, and the dead-money charge for cutting or trading him after 2022 would be closer to $13 million. It's worth noting that many of the running backs who signed big extensions in the 2020 offseason -- McCaffrey, Henry, Cook and Kamara -- are missing time due to injury this season, as Jeremy mentioned. The other -- Cincinnati's Joe Mixon -- is healthy but missed a good chunk of time in 2020. Not great data points for guys like Saquon Barkley (who has his own injury issues), David Montgomery or Jonathan Taylor, who are or will become extension eligible in the next couple of years. The evidence that you shouldn't pay running backs continues to pile up.