We have reached the point in the NFL season where some overreactions aren't overreactions at all. At this stage, they're appropriate reactions. By Week 12, we have some sense of how the playoff races will shape up, which teams are real contenders, which teams aren't and which games matter.
For example, everyone knew Sunday's Titans-Patriots matchup was a big game. Tennessee came in with the best record in the AFC (though, without basically its entire offense), while New England was surging and just one game behind. This was the kind of game that absolutely could end up mattering when it's time to figure out who plays where and when in January. And the Patriots won it easily, 36-13.
OK, give the Titans credit. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing put together a game plan in spite of being down to his third- and fourth-string wide receivers, and they were only behind 16-13 at the half. Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen managed to frustrate the Patriots' usually reliable run game. The Titans gained 270 yards on the ground to the Patriots' 105.
But the reason the Patriots won anyway was turnovers. The Titans committed four of them, which means they played this game in New England's wheelhouse. The Patriots' defense has been as opportunistic as any in the league during the team's current six-game winning streak, and it's a big part of the reason that rookie quarterback Mac Jones has grown so comfortable in such a short period of time.
You have to credit Bill Belichick here. He retooled his roster in one offseason, with a free-agency spree that raised eyebrows around the league and a draft that landed two potential cornerstone pieces -- Jones and defensive lineman Christian Barmore -- in the first two rounds. The Patriots started the season 1-3, including a painful home loss to former New England QB Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. But they have righted the ship and now stand at 8-4, with two of their next three games against the Buffalo Bills, who are right behind them in the AFC East race.
So, let's start this week's overreactions column there, shall we?
Bill Belichick is already a lock for NFL Coach of the Year
First off, the award almost always goes to the coach of a team most of us didn't see coming. Even if you expected a bounce-back campaign from New England, you probably didn't expect the Patriots to be top-of-the-conference good this soon.
Belichick is in this race because of that -- and also because his team appears to be one that can beat you in a number of different ways. Can't run the ball? Fine. Jones throws for 310 yards and two touchdowns. Can't stop the run? No problem. Strip the ball from the running backs at the end of their long runs.
The Patriots are 5-0 on the road and 6-1 against AFC opponents with a rookie quarterback. In case you hadn't noticed by watching the other rookie quarterbacks, that's not supposed to happen.
The verdict: OVERREACTION, but not as a downgrade to the job Belichick is doing. He is absolutely a contender, and if the season ended right now, it's likely he'd win it. But Kliff Kingsbury has to be a strong contender with his 9-2 Cardinals team. The job Mike Vrabel is doing with the Titans deserves mention in this discussion, regardless of Sunday's outcome.
Matt LaFleur has obviously dealt with a bunch of stuff in Green Bay and has kept winning. No team has been hit harder than John Harbaugh's Ravens, who entered Week 12 in first place. Heck, Zac Taylor has the Bengals in position to maybe win their division. This is a close (and great) race. And while Belichick might be the leading contender, he hasn't won it yet.
The Buccaneers are at their best when they don't need Tom Brady to win them the game
Tampa Bay got all it could handle on Sunday from the red-hot Indianapolis Colts. Brady threw a pick, Indy led 24-14 at the half, another Bucs cornerback left the game with an injury and things were looking awful wobbly for the defending Super Bowl champs. They did come back to win 38-31, but all three of their second-half touchdowns were rushing scores.
Running back Leonard Fournette scored four touchdowns himself in this game -- which is incredible considering that the Colts had only allowed five touchdowns to opposing running backs all season before Sunday. The Bucs' defense came to life in the second half too, forcing turnovers and wresting control of the game from the Colts just in time. It was a total team effort by Tampa, which Brady surely enjoyed.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. It almost feels too obvious, right? The way Brady is playing at age 44 is ridiculous, historic and amazing. He deserves all manner of reverent credit for what he is doing. But a big part of the reason he went to Tampa Bay was because he was tired of being the guy who was asked to cover up all the flaws on New England's roster. Brady liked the Bucs because they had such a great roster -- offensive line, receivers, defense -- and the Super Bowl title was the result of all of that working together.
I continue to believe the most significant impact Brady has on the Bucs is the confidence he provokes in every player on both sides of the ball just by being in the building. And yes, I have no doubt he is still capable of making the big play when it's needed or putting the Bucs on his back to win a game. I just don't think he should need to do it all the time, and if the Bucs can run the ball the way they did against the Colts on Sunday, they're going to be a real tough out again in the NFC playoffs. Maybe even the toughest.
The Cowboys are a lock to win the NFC East
On Sunday morning, there were murmurs. The Eagles were nipping at Dallas' heels. A rough loss to the Raiders on Thanksgiving, a slew of injuries and COVID-19 issues and all of a sudden the Cowboys look as vulnerable as they have all season. Philly was hot, having won three of their past four to move within two games of first place in the division. All they had to do to keep the heat on was beat the lowly Giants, whom they held to just 13 points.
But they did not beat the Giants, because quarterback Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions and the Eagles only managed seven points against New York's defense. So Dallas, in spite of its recent skid, goes into Thursday night's matchup against the Saints with a healthy 2.5-game lead in the NFC East.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. This division belongs to the Cowboys and will when the regular season ends. As fun as it has been to watch the Eagles come together around Hurts and to imagine a future in which they build around him rather than scour the league for his replacement, Sunday's 13-7 loss proved Philly is still a team that's putting itself together, with a young offense that needs time to grow.
There will be better days for the Eagles, but they aren't in the Cowboys' class when you look at their rosters side by side. The same can be said for Washington and the Giants. And four of the Cowboy's final six games are against those three teams.
Dallas has plenty of cushion to rest on as it tries to work through its various midseason crises. Whether it is a Super Bowl team remains to be seen, but if you're planning on a Dallas home game early in the playoffs, I think your plans are safe.
The Rams could miss the playoffs
A 38-26 loss in Green Bay is not, in and of itself, cause for concern or shame. But big-picture, there are definitely some cracks in the Rams' veneer.
The Rams are 0-3 since they traded for Von Miller and 0-2 since they signed Odell Beckham Jr., and by now, they were supposed to have been asserting themselves as a major -- if not the major -- NFC power. Of their seven wins, only one came against a team that currently has a winning record, and that was over the Bucs way back in Week 3. Since then, they're 0-4 against such teams, with losses to Arizona, Tennessee, San Francisco and Green Bay.
They should be fine next week at home against Jacksonville, but road games at Arizona, Minnesota and Baltimore await -- as does a season-finale rematch against the 49ers. At some point, the Rams are going to have to go toe-to-toe with at least one other real playoff contender.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The NFC playoff race is fascinating right now. The four division winners look pretty well set. Three (besides Dallas) are playing well right now, and all four have healthy leads.
But the three wild-card spots? Anybody's game. The Rams currently sit fifth in the conference at 7-4, but they're just one game in front of the 49ers, two ahead of the Vikings, Falcons and Saints, 2½ ahead of the Eagles, Panthers and Washington and, heck, three ahead of the Giants and Bears.
You'd rather be the Rams right now than any of the other teams in the wild-card mix. But if they keep losing to teams with winning records, they could lose ground to whichever one, or ones, get hot. L.A. needs to lock in and start looking like the team they were in September.
The Ravens are the best team in the AFC
Baltimore capped Sunday's action with about as sloppy a victory as you could imagine, overcoming four Lamar Jackson interceptions to beat the Browns 16-10. As a result, the Ravens ended the day in first place in the AFC North and in the No. 1 spot in the AFC playoff race.
Their 8-3 record is half a game better than the 8-4 marks of the Patriots and the Titans. They don't decide playoff spots or seeding with style points, so the fact that Sunday's performance was ugly and their season, in general, has been an injury-riddled, high-wire act should not be held against the Ravens.
The records say that, as of right now, the Ravens are the best team in the AFC. So, it's only right that we ask whether they really, truly are.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. To be clear, the job John Harbaugh and his staff have done steering this team through all of its trouble is astounding. But this is just all too close for us to be making an assertion like this right now.
The Ravens' division lead is only one game over the Cincinnati Bengals, who beat them head-to-head and came out of their Week 10 bye looking very much repaired. The Bengals completely outclassed the Steelers on Sunday, making Pittsburgh's offseason decision to bring back Ben Roethlisberger look worse than it ever has. The 7-4 Buffalo Bills are also currently the sixth seed in the AFC playoff field and only a game behind Baltimore.
The Ravens' remaining schedule includes trips to Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Cincinnati and home games against the Packers, Rams and Steelers. It won't be easy.
Do I think Harbaugh and Jackson can find a way to fight through all of that and hold onto the top spot? I do. And if they do, then there'll surely be no more debate about whether the Ravens are the conference's best team. No matter how it looks.