Week 9 delivered us to the midpoint of the 2021 NFL season, and that can mean only one thing. Week 10 is the start of the playoff push, those two months of the NFL calendar when we find out which plans worked, which ones failed and who, if anyone, was able to adjust on the fly.
The addition of a 17th regular-season game, a year after an expansion of the playoff field from 12 to 14 teams, changes the calculus a bit. Some of us, of course, are going to trip up on projecting teams to finish with records such as 11-6, 9-8 or 13-4. (Or, in one case, maybe 0-16-1.) Teams that started the season strong face a longer horizon to maintain, while those that needed to make adjustments will have more time to reap the rewards.
Regardless, it's time to start separating the NFL's 32 teams in terms of their likelihood to make the playoffs. Perhaps more than in most years, we have a small handful of teams that are locks on either end of the spectrum and then a large blob of maybes. At this point, the best way to think of the playoff field is through the five tiers that follow. We can feel quite good about, say, the Cardinals (8-2) making the playoffs. On the other hand, the Lions (0-8-1) ain't getting there.
But what about teams such as the Patriots, who are 6-4 and have decent chances to either fall back in the crowded AFC or take control of the AFC East? How about the Saints (5-4), or even the Chiefs (6-4), who have appeared in the past two Super Bowls? What follows will kick off a weekly examination of the NFL playoff field as January beckons. Let's tier all 32 teams by their current playoff hopes, mixing in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). (Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.)
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS
Buffalo Bills (6-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 97.7%
A little midseason dip, coinciding with a surge from the Patriots, has made the AFC East less than a cakewalk for the Bills. FPI predicts Buffalo now has an 81.9% chance to take the division. Sunday's romp over the hapless Jets doesn't really tell us much about whether the Bills are "back" after losing two of their previous three games. But the Bills are built too solidly on both sides of the ball to back away from the initial Super Bowl predictions that followed throughout the preseason. FPI currently says they have a 22.2% chance to make and win the Super Bowl in February, the highest odds in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys (7-2)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 99.1%
In most recent years, an average team has a great chance to win the NFC East. This year, the Cowboys have a legitimate chance to parlay a weak division into home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They've won their first two divisional games, and their offense overall has scored at least 30 points in five of their nine games. Few have put the Cowboys among the league's upper echelon, but they deserve to be there.
Green Bay Packers (8-2)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 99.6%
The Packers suffered a number of scary injuries in Sunday's victory over the Seahawks, most notably to tailback Aaron Jones (knee). But if you step back for a moment, you see a team that is coming together for the stretch run. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers missed only one game on the COVID-19 list, left tackle David Bakhtiari's return from a knee injury is imminent, and the defense has shut down Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson in consecutive weeks. The Packers have a strong chance at earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC (30.2% chance, per FPI), which puts them on a short list of Super Bowl contenders.
Tennessee Titans (8-2)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 99.9%
The Titans had an awfully impressive first half of the season, winning seven of their first nine games despite playing the NFL's most difficult schedule over that period, based on FPI. Although they've almost certainly lost tailback Derrick Henry (foot) for the rest of the regular season, they'll benefit from playing the league's easiest schedule the rest of the way, especially after getting past the Saints on Sunday. The Titans' 24.1% chance to make it to the Super Bowl, per FPI, is the NFL's second-best odds.
PLAYOFF LOCKS
Arizona Cardinals (8-2)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 99.3%
The Cardinals were dominated on Sunday, a week after the NFL world celebrated them for winning their first game after quarterback Kyler Murray's ankle injury. Murray is expected back in the lineup soon, but it's fair to question the extent to which his mobility will be impacted down the stretch. Perhaps the Cardinals will prove us wrong, but that uncertainty makes it difficult to project the Cardinals among the four or five teams with the best Super Bowl odds. On the other hand, they realistically need to win only two or three more games to lock down a playoff spot.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 78.9%
The Ravens' good fortunes were bound to run out at some point, and ultimately it happened Thursday night in Miami after a season's worth of second-half and/or overtime comebacks. But the Ravens are fortunate to be in a division that does not appear to be as good as we once thought. (They currently have a 53.4% chance to win the AFC North, per FPI.) Here's some advice when projecting playoff contenders: Always pick the team with a quarterback who is having an MVP-like season, and that's exactly what we're seeing from the Ravens' Lamar Jackson.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 74.6%
After all the (mostly justifiable) panic about the start of their season, the Chiefs enter the playoff run atop the AFC West. Their victory Sunday night over the Raiders made them the only six-win team in the division, and more importantly, it gave us a familiar glimpse of big-play capabilities on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs might not prove as lethal as in previous years, but winning 60% of your games during a time of struggle is good enough to get to the playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams (7-2)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 97.4%
The Rams got beat down by the Titans in their most recent game, and they lost a valuable receiver in Robert Woods to a torn ACL last week -- but this is still one of the best teams in the league. Pass-rusher Von Miller, acquired via trade with the Broncos, should get onto the field soon after recovering from an ankle injury, and the Rams were fortunate to have signed receiver Odell Beckham Jr. just before Woods' injury. They're absolutely going to the playoffs, and they have a 28.9% chance to win the NFC West, per FPI.
New England Patriots (6-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 82.8%
The Patriots are only two games above .500, and they've got a pretty brutal schedule ahead of them. Their next five games include two against the Bills and one against the Titans. But given the way they've played in the past month, with four consecutive victories by a 100-point differential, you might be smarter to view their schedule as a chance to overtake the Bills for the AFC East lead. (FPI is giving the Patriots a 18.1% chance of winning the division at the moment.) Either way, the Patriots are playing as well as any AFC team (other than the Titans) right now.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 97.1%
We know, we know. The Buccaneers have lost consecutive games, and four of their six victories have come against teams that currently have losing records. But let's stop the nonsense right here. The last time a Tom Brady team missed the playoffs was 2002. In a seven-team NFC field this season, he's making it. And the Buccaneers currently carry an 83.5% chance to win the NFC South and a 12.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl, according to FPI.
IN THE HUNT
Carolina Panthers (5-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 23.2%
Perhaps Sunday's romp over the Cardinals will prove to be a one-off, but it's difficult to look away from the Panthers now that they appear to have tailback Christian McCaffrey back healthy and have an upgrade at quarterback by replacing the injured Sam Darnold with Cam Newton. As incredible as it might seem after watching them lose five of six games before Sunday, the Panthers currently hold the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoff picture.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 35.6%
The Bengals already have some nice wins on their docket, having defeated the Steelers by 14 points and the Ravens by 24 points. But they enter Week 11 with consecutive losses to Jets and Browns, having given up a total of 75 points over that period. Plus, five of their remaining opponents have a .500 record or better. FPI gives them about a one-in-three chance of making the playoffs, and that sounds about right.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 24.9%
There's no polite way to say it. The Raiders are fading. They've lost four of six games after a 3-0 start, and Sunday's home loss to the Chiefs relinquished their hold on the AFC West lead. A full collapse wouldn't be surprising given the turmoil the Raiders have already faced this season. All three of their division foes have at least five wins, and the Raiders are in for a tough stretch over the next two months.
Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 67.0%
The Chargers have cooled since a 4-1 start had all of us thinking they had turned an organizational corner under new coach Brandon Staley. They've since lost three of their past four games. Two of those losses came against the Ravens and Patriots, whom the Chargers could be fighting for a wild-card spot in a couple months.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 27.7%
The Eagles have rolled to blowout victories in two of the past three weeks, and based on what we saw Sunday in Denver, they have a pretty decent chance to be hovering around .500 during the final playoff stretch. Their next six games look winnable: two against the Giants, two against Washington and one apiece against the Saints and Jets. It's not time to write them off quite yet.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 40.3%
At the end of a pretty odd weekend, the Steelers were less than a game out of the AFC North lead. The Dolphins helped them by upsetting the Ravens on Thursday night, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's positive test for COVID-19 did not trigger a loss. (Ha! The Steelers played to a tie against the Lions in an ugly game.) In the end, a division that once seemed pretty strong might prove to be winnable by a team that finishes a game or two above .500. FPI has the Steelers with a 16.0% chance to win the AFC North.
Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 44.3%
The Vikings' long list of "almost" wins this season -- two overtime losses among them -- doesn't help them in the standings, but it does help us project them as a playoff contender following Sunday's actual victory over the Chargers. In short, the Vikings have the best chance of any four-win team of making the playoffs, according to FPI (44.3%).
New Orleans Saints (5-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 62.7%
The Saints were a marginal playoff-caliber team with Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback, and his season-ending injury has left them on even shakier ground with two consecutive losses. FPI still likes their chances of making the playoffs (62.7%), thanks to their 5-2 start -- and at the moment, they are the NFC's No. 6 seed. But now is about the right time for coach Sean Payton to start working his magic.
NOT LOOKING GOOD ...
Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 5.5%
FPI hates the Falcons' chances of making the playoffs (5.5%), probably because they have games upcoming against the Patriots, Buccaneers, Bills and Saints. But the Falcons have been one of the hardest teams in the league to figure out. Two weeks ago, they won in New Orleans. Sunday, the Cowboys throttled them by 40 points. They play like a team trying to find its way in a new coach's tenure, not one that's ready to make a second-half surge.
Chicago Bears (3-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 1.7%
Rookie quarterback Justin Fields has been increasingly fun to watch, and it's reasonable to expect that he'll continue to grow more comfortable and confident in the Bears' offense. But will it lead to the kind of winning streak that would ensure the Bears a playoff spot? Do you see them finishing 7-1 or 6-2? Didn't think so.
Cleveland Browns (5-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 36.2%
The Browns looked horrendous Sunday against the Patriots, especially on defense. No one should panic about one bad game, especially when it comes on the road against a team that is as hot as any in the NFL, and we should note that tailback Nick Chubb should be back soon from the COVID-19 reserve list. But the real issue is quarterback Baker Mayfield, and in particular the shoulder and now knee injuries that seem to be holding him back from his best performances. The Browns are the AFC North's only five-loss team, and at this point, it's hard to think of them as a playoff team in the condition Mayfield is in.
Denver Broncos (5-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 28.1%
The Broncos' decision to trade outside linebacker Von Miller earlier this month suggested that they harbored the same mixed feelings we all do about their playoff chances. They've since stomped the Cowboys in Dallas and lost at home to the Eagles. They're one of 12 AFC teams with at least five wins, but at the moment, they trail in all tiebreakers thanks in large part to a 2-4 conference record. FPI hasn't completely ruled them out, but there are a lot of teams to leapfrog over the next two months.
Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 32.3%
The Colts' 5-5 record seems like a bit of a mirage when evaluating their playoff hopes. None of their victories have come against teams with winning records, and the rest of their schedule has some significant speed bumps on it. Their next two games are against the Bills and Buccaneers, and later this season, they'll face the Patriots, Cardinals and Raiders. The Colts will have to be a substantially better team over their next seven games, and there is no evidence to suggest they will be.
Miami Dolphins (3-7)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 1.6%
Consecutive victories have raised the interest level in Miami, but there are still 12 teams in the AFC with more wins this season, including two in the AFC East. The Dolphins have a chance to be relevant later this season, but to make the playoffs, they likely would have to turn this two-game winning streak into a 10-1 run (or so) to finish the season. FPI and most others see a very small chance of that happening.
New York Giants (3-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 3.9%
The Giants and Washington are in the same boat. They're three games below .500 and have fallen four games behind the Cowboys in the NFC East, and it's just not reasonable to think they can turn around their fortunes in the second half of the season. The Giants' upcoming schedule includes road games at the Buccaneers and Chargers, and a home game against the Cowboys. They'll need to win at least one and possibly all three of those games to get back into playoff contention.
Seattle Seahawks (3-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 13.5%
The tendency is to never write off a Russell Wilson team, but the quarterback didn't make much of a difference in his return to the lineup Sunday. The Seahawks scored zero points in their sixth loss of the season, lowering their chances to make the playoffs to 13.5%, according to FPI. In most cases, that would put a team in the offseason tier at this point of the season. Wilson's return, and his presumptive return to full health, gives them the benefit of the doubt here.
Washington Football Team (3-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 4.2%
For as much fun as it has been to watch backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke this season, especially in Sunday's upset victory over the Buccaneers, Washington has shown how difficult it is to overcome the loss of a starting quarterback in Week 1. We'll never know what this team might have done if Ryan Fitzpatrick had remained on the field. In the end, though, Washington is already too far behind in the NFC East, and the top-heavy NFC isn't likely to have room in its playoff field for a near-.500 (at best) second team from this division.
TIME FOR THE OFFSEASON
Detroit Lions (0-8-1)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 0.1%
Sunday's tie means the Lions can't go 0-17. But it's not too early to wonder if they will become the first team to go 0-16-1, just as they were the first to go 0-16 in 2008. At this point, more losses are better for the Lions, as they seek the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft. FPI says they have a 53.6% chance to land the top selection, and given how poorly quarterback Jared Goff has played, the Lions should already be locked in to taking a quarterback with their first pick.
Houston Texans (1-8)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 0.1%
No team entered the 2021 season with less evidence that it was trying to compete than the Texans, who are paying franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson to stay off the field. The Texans have the second-largest negative point differential (minus-130) in the NFL behind the Jets, and they don't even have the inside track on the No. 1 overall pick in 2022 (32.3% chance, per FPI) to show for it after a Week 1 victory over the Jaguars.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 0.1%
Starting 0-5 doomed the Jaguars' playoff chances, and winning two of their next three games diminished their likelihood to secure the No. 1 overall pick. In other words, despite the initial excitement generated by coach Urban Meyer's arrival, the Jaguars are headed toward just a regular old losing season.
New York Jets (2-7)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 0.1%
The Jets actually had some people fooled into thinking backup quarterback Mike White would spur them into an extended period of competitiveness, but their defense is giving up more points per game (32.9) than any other team in the NFL. A best-case scenario this season for the Jets is that rookie quarterback Zach Wilson (knee) gets back onto the field and finds a level of rhythm and confidence to take him into the offseason.
San Francisco 49ers (3-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 20.7%
The deck was already stacked against the 49ers, who have two of the NFL's top teams -- the Cardinals and Rams -- in their own division. The Niners have three games remaining against them alone, including Monday night against the Rams. Combine their remaining schedule with the fact that their three wins have come against teams with losing records, and it's time to start thinking beyond 2021.