The NFL is taking this parity thing too far in 2021. Through the first nine weeks, 12 AFC teams have at least four wins. Four of the bottom seven teams in the ESPN NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 9 -- the Atlanta Falcons (No. 25), New York Giants (No. 26), Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 29) and Miami Dolphins (No. 30) -- won Sunday, and three of those wins were against top-10 teams. And that's not even counting a curious loss by the Dallas Cowboys.
It feels like just about any team can contend for a playoff spot over the final two months. Nineteen teams are projected to win between eight and 13.6 games, according to ESPN's Power Football Index (FPI). And per ESPN Stats & Information research, there have been 28 games with the game-winning score coming in the final minute of regulation or in overtime, the second most through nine weeks since the 1970 merger -- and 21 of those have been decided on the final play.
Some teams should continue to create separation. In the NFC, the Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers are in a race for a playoff bye. The Cowboys, Packers and Tennessee Titans sport comfortable divisional leads. The Buffalo Bills, meanwhile, hold the FPI's second-highest playoff probability in the AFC (94.8%) even after this weekend's ugly 9-6 loss to Jacksonville.
Some of it won't matter if several underachieving teams pick up steam in time to salvage the season. Yes, we're talking to the Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts and San Francisco 49ers, among others. What's safe about the NFL is nothing is safe. To make sense of the second-half playoff picture, we reached out to league execs, scouts and coaches for some old-fashioned forecasting. What will happen in key division races and the tightening wild-card hunts -- and which team will win the Super Bowl?
Jump to a tight playoff race:
AFC West | NFC West | AFC North
Chiefs still very much in the AFC West picture
To mild surprise, execs feel strongly that the Chiefs -- who are 5-4 and sit a half-game behind the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders in the standings -- will shrug off the slow start and take the divisional crown for the sixth straight year. Fans and media hyperventilated as a once-great offense stalled, but there's not nearly as much panic leaguewide.
"You have a great quarterback with elite talent around him, and you have Andy Reid. Things will settle down," said an NFC exec. "They are still really good. The defense is more concerning. Not sure they have any solutions to fix some of their issues."
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs playing slugfest football is hard to watch. Mahomes averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in Sunday's 13-7 win over Green Bay, and his season average of 7.0 yards per attempt is well below the 8.2 clip for his career. We've all heard the formula by now: Defenses are playing deep, doubling receiver Tyreek Hill and daring Mahomes to orchestrate methodical 12-play drives. But perhaps Mahomes' vintage moment Sunday -- sliding to his right and hitting Hill on the run for a late 13-yard gain to seal the game -- is a sign that the passing attack is making gains.
The Raiders and Chargers have showed enough progress to warrant decent buzz for a divisional crown, though some execs believe they are too erratic to be trusted. The two teams are tied atop the division at 5-3. Las Vegas' defense has climbed to respectable status, improving from 25th to 13th in total defense over the first eight weeks. And it has two upcoming matchups with the Chiefs, whom it played tough in last year's series split. But the Raiders also have the eighth-toughest strength of schedule remaining, compared to 13th for the Chiefs and 29th for the Chargers.
"The loss of [coach Jon Gruden] has sort of galvanized them, Derek Carr is underrated and the defense is better," an NFL personnel man said, despite Sunday's loss to the Giants. "But I'm not sure if they hold up. And wideout is still a major need."
Las Vegas is planning to sign DeSean Jackson, which will help in the vertical game.
Team execs are still bullish on Justin Herbert and the Chargers' passing attack despite a sluggish stretch of play, with 418 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions in Weeks 7 and 8. Herbert responded with a clean 356 yards and two touchdowns on 32-of-38 passing vs. the Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
An NFC exec suggested that the Chargers could pose a challenge to the Chiefs for the AFC West this season but noted that it "will be tough with Michael Schofield and Storm Norton," referring to the Chargers' backup right guard and right tackle having to fill starters' roles due to injury. The exec added, "And their run defense still has problems." Los Angeles is allowing 5.0 yards per carry, worst in the NFL.
Finally, Denver wasn't prominently featured in the AFC West discussion but can't be discounted after Sunday's 30-16 dismantling of Dallas. The Broncos are tied with the Chiefs at 5-4. The FPI has the Chargers as the current favorite to win the division (46.6%), followed by the Chiefs (19.8%), Broncos (18.9%) and Raiders (14.7%).
AFC East 'not a runaway' for the Bills
Days like Sunday are why some people around the league aren't counting New England out of the discussion for the AFC East crown. While the Bills were flailing in Jacksonville, Mac Jones and the Patriots were coasting to their fourth straight road win. Since a 1-3 start, the Patriots' point differential is plus-71. And the Bills and Patriots play twice in December.
"I need to see Buffalo matched up against New England before we know for sure," an NFL personnel man said. "That division is not a runaway. [Jones] doesn't have dominant traits, but he's got something. He sees it. He has instincts."
Most consider Buffalo's loss to Jacksonville an aberration. The Bills entered the week with the top-ranked scoring offense and defense.
"They are probably still the most complete team in the league," an AFC exec said. "When Josh Allen stays in control, they are fine. When he tries to do too much and hold on to the ball, he'll struggle."
Buffalo has an 84.7% chance to win the division, per the FPI. The Pats sit at 15.3%.
NFC West attrition battle heating up
The Cardinals bet big on a coach with a losing record in college, a 5-foot-10 quarterback and a series of trades and signings of aging star players. All this has resulted in a league-best 8-1 record, and the Cardinals just put up 430-plus yards on San Francisco without their top two players, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.
"Even if you don't like the Air Raid [scheme] or the way they do things, they are so talented that they make it work," an AFC scout said. "They can overwhelm you."
But not everyone is as optimistic, with a few execs pointing to the Cardinals' 5-2 start last year. Arizona ultimately lost six of the last nine. Will this year be different?
"It might be, but they will need to prove that," an NFC exec said. "Kyler probably needs to stay healthy. And they will need a counter when defenses make their adjustments in the second half of the season."
Perhaps Arizona's edge can come from the Rams' lack of depth. Los Angeles relies heavily on a collection of core players, with outside linebacker Von Miller serving as the latest example. But teams agree that Miller still has his fastball and will help that Rams defense, like an NBA contender adding 3-point shooting for the playoffs. Miller was out for "Sunday Night Football" against Tennessee with an ankle injury, pushing his debut for L.A. at least a week.
Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford has also validated the belief of many who thought new scenery would vault him to an elite level -- despite some uneven play in Sunday night's loss to the Titans. His 69.8 Total QBR leads the NFL.
"They are top-heavy," an NFL personnel man said. "If they stay healthy, they can separate."
Looking at the FPI numbers, Arizona is the most likely division winner at 83.2%. The Rams hold a 16.4% chance, and the 49ers and Seahawks are below 1%.
Anything possible in the AFC North
People around the league are still trying to make sense of the Cincinnati Bengals. They are clearly a playoff threat (a 30.2% chance to make the playoffs, per the FPI), led by an improved defense and a Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase connection that has produced 835 yards through nine games. But Baltimore remains the safe bet for a divisional crown for most.
"[The Bengals'] offensive line is bad. Relying on unscripted plays. Tough to consistently win like that," an NFC exec said.
Teams generally favor Baltimore because it has the best quarterback in the division, more playmakers than it has had in the past and a playoff pedigree. One AFC exec called Baltimore's defense "average at best" right now, though, partly because of injuries. Baltimore ranked 25th in defense before giving up 31 points to the Minnesota Vikings in an overtime win Sunday.
But each team is a threat in the North. The FPI likes the Ravens to take it (59.0%), but all four teams have at least an 8% chance. The Steelers still have the most defensive playmaking, an improving offensive line and several intriguing young playmakers. Those around the league have been higher on Pittsburgh than the media. The rookie combo of running back Najee Harris and tight end Pat Freiermuth bears watching. And the Browns looked like the playoff-caliber team many expected in a 41-16 win over Cincinnati on Sunday.
"Baker [Mayfield]'s a good quarterback," an NFC exec said. "A lot of teams would take him. They had to admit the Odell [Beckham Jr.] mistake and get him out of there for Baker to have a chance."
Every team in the AFC North and AFC West has a winning record, and the Elias Sports Bureau says there have been multiple divisions in which every team had a winning record through Week 9 or later just one time (2008). (The 4-3 Steelers play on Monday night.)
NFC South teams vying for wild-card spots
The consensus is the New Orleans Saints (5-3) won't catch the Buccaneers (6-2) but have the inside track on a wild-card berth. The Saints are projected to win 9.6 games and carry a 73.3% playoff chance.
"Give Sean Payton just about any quarterback, and he's going to make it work," an NFC scout said. "He knows how to maximize a quarterback's strengths. And that team has good leadership and a veteran defense."
The Falcons were supposed to be rebuilding yet find themselves at 4-4. They have the sixth-toughest schedule coming up, but first-year coach Arthur Smith has made an instant impact.
Other sleeper teams to watch
The Colts have a "scary" roster when it's right, an NFC exec said. It has rarely been right because of injuries, but chasing down the Titans for the AFC South wouldn't be impossible. The two teams are very close.
The Seahawks get a few shoutouts here. "Look at their schedule the rest of the way," an NFC exec said. "Finishing 6-2 is entirely possible."
Even the Giants aren't terrible. In the past three weeks, they've blown out the Carolina Panthers, nearly knocked off the Chiefs in Arrowhead and gave the Raiders a long flight back to the West Coast. That's not to say they are poised for the playoffs, but they could hang around long enough to make things interesting.
Super Bowl winner?
The most common Super Bowl picks among those we spoke with around the league were the Rams or Buccaneers defeating the Bills. One NFC scout said, "If we're talking most talent, Tampa can hang with just about anybody. And they have Tom [Brady]. They just have to get healthier in the secondary."
The Bills (17.6%), Bucs (17.1%), Rams (6.1%) and Cowboys (5.5%) are all among the FPI's top five to win it all. But it is Arizona with the best chance at 21.2%.