Predicting NFL Week 10 upset picks and fantasy football sleepers, plus coaches on the hot seat, candidates to watch

At the midpoint of the NFL season and with the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, we asked our insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler to lead off their weekly piece with everything they're hearing on teams that could be looking for new head coaches after the season. There's already one opening in Las Vegas, but there are likely to be a few more. They also evaluated the assistants and former head coaches likely to get interviews in the 2022 cycle, along with the hot names who are rising.

We also asked Graziano and Fowler to pick the NFL's Coach of the Year at midseason and look ahead to Week 10 of the NFL season, predicting upset picks for this weekend and projecting fringe players who should be started in fantasy football. They emptied their notebooks, too, diving deep on what's next for Odell Beckham Jr., why the Raiders signed DeSean Jackson, whether the 49ers could start Trey Lance soon and more. Let's dig in ahead of this week's games:

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Who's on the hot seat? | Candidates
Upsets | Underrated | COY picks
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

Let's talk head coaches on the hot seat: What have you guys heard on jobs that could come available?

Graziano: This is always such a touchy topic at this point in the season. I can hear Chris Mortensen yelling at me now about how these guys have families, and it's insensitive to talk about hot seats. But the fact is there are always changes in the head coach ranks, and this year won't be any different.

The Raiders will likely look for someone to replace interim coach Rich Bisaccia, though it's not totally impossible that he takes them on a run and convinces the organization to keep him. Other situations being watched closely by people around the league who track these things include Chicago, Denver, Jacksonville and Minnesota, though again I stress that a lot depends on what happens.

There has been a perception since before the season that Denver was a spot to watch, but Vic Fangio and the Broncos are 5-4, so maybe not. I'm interested to see which situations take a turn for the worse from here on out. You think Miami could make a move if things keep going poorly there? Cincinnati, if it completely falls apart in the second half? Is it possible that a fourth losing season out of five could put Kyle Shanahan in trouble in San Francisco?

Fowler: That's true, Dan, many of those questions are still tough to answer right now. Six head-coaching jobs opened last year, and hitting that number is not a slam dunk, though the season promises a few surprises. I'll say this about Denver and Fangio: New general manager George Paton really likes him and is known to be incredibly loyal. He stayed in Minnesota for years despite overtures for several GM opportunities elsewhere. This isn't a situation in which the new GM is looking for "his guy." That doesn't mean Fangio is completely safe, but the Broncos' fighting back to get over .500 helps. The question now becomes: Is Denver's offensive ceiling under the current staff too much to overcome?

The NFC North also takes the spotlight here. Hard to argue with Mike Zimmer's .567 winning percentage in Minnesota, but there have been whispers that players are worn out by his coaching style. I do believe that's real. Perhaps Chicago's Matt Nagy will get the rest of the season to build on some of the offensive progress we saw from Justin Fields on Monday Night Football. And to your questions, it wouldn't surprise me if Brian Flores and Kyle Shanahan got more time. Zac Taylor would need an epic collapse in Cincinnati to be fired.

Graziano: Agreed, but that's why I'm trying to project, right? We don't know what's going to happen, and there are nine weeks that could totally turn everything we think we know right now on its head. Where could you imagine there being an opening that doesn't look possible now? I guess you never know when some of the older guys such as Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll and Bruce Arians might decide to move on, but there's no indication that any of them are thinking that way. I also don't think the Giants give up on Joe Judge yet. What do you make of that situation?

Fowler: Yeah, the sense I get is New York really doesn't want to filter through coaches every two years, and it does like Judge. I'm thinking he gets a third year barring major disappointment down the stretch. The Giants are showing signs of life with convincing wins over Carolina and Las Vegas and nearly knocking off the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

Of the seasoned coaches, Belichick just retooled an improving roster and Arians is having too much fun. I guess it wouldn't shock me to see Carroll, at age 70, step down if Seattle continues to slide. He changed offensive coordinators in the offseason, and if the defense continues to struggle, another coordinator change might be on the way. After that, there wouldn't be much left to change, except results.

Who are the top candidates most likely to get interviews in this cycle?

Fowler: Let's buck the offense trend and start on defense. The league is loaded with former head coaches-turned-defensive coordinators who should get serious consideration, including the Cardinals' Vance Joseph, Buccaneers' Todd Bowles, Cowboys' Dan Quinn and Bills' Leslie Frazier. All have their defenses playing at high levels while serving as valuable resources for their head coaches. At least one is likely to secure a job, though it won't be all about the offensive cachet this cycle.

The Raiders' Gus Bradley, Rams' Raheem Morris and Saints' Dennis Allen are also part of the former-head-coach fraternity belonging in that conversation. Those guys can all coach, though they all needed more quarterback help when they held head-coach jobs, save Quinn, who went to a Super Bowl. A few other coordinators looking for their first head-coaching jobs who could create buzz are the Browns' Joe Woods, Colts' Matt Eberflus, Titans' Shane Bowen and Giants' Patrick Graham.

Graziano: We'll obviously hear plenty of the usual suspects on the offensive side as well, including Kansas City's Eric Bieniemy and Buffalo's Brian Daboll (assuming those offenses can get back on track before the end of the season). I expect teams with open jobs will talk to Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and Green Bay offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Dallas' Kellen Moore could get himself on radar screens if the Cowboys' offense keeps humming the way it was before last week's flop. San Francisco's Mike McDaniel is well thought of in league circles. You still hear people talk about Carolina's Joe Brady, though I don't understand what has happened the past two years in Carolina to make that the case.

In the long shot category, Kevin O'Connell is the Rams' offensive coordinator, and there are some head coaches in the league who didn't have to work for Sean McVay for long before getting their jobs. There are a couple of former NFL linebackers in DeMeco Ryans (49ers) and Jerod Mayo (Patriots) who are seen as rising stars in the coaching community and could end up on these lists sooner rather than later.

What about former head coaches such as Jim Caldwell or Marvin Lewis, who have shown interest in getting back in over the past couple of years?

Fowler: Those two were in the mix last year and could get another look. At some point that window might close. You mentioned O'Connell: That's a good sleeper pick. Seems like every year we have an unexpected candidate thrive in an interview setting to secure a job (Joe Judge, Brandon Staley), and O'Connell has the demeanor for it. Moore has made a compelling case, and Daboll should continue to do so. Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing, whom you've mentioned before, is creating buzz -- there's something in the Tennessee waters, I suppose. From Arthur Smith to Downing, the offense keeps humming. And from the Smith tree, Dave Ragone has impressed in Year 1 with Atlanta, particularly his work with Cordarrelle Patterson.

Not sure what to make of the Bieniemy situation. His job interview tally has to be close to 20. He's obviously qualified. It has become so unclear which franchise will provide him that chance.

Who's your midseason pick for Coach of the Year?

Graziano: Baltimore's John Harbaugh. This is a tough race, and I thought a lot about Arizona's Kliff Kingsbury and Tennessee's Mike Vrabel, who won impressive games in Week 9 without their respective best players. But going back to training camp, when the Ravens were losing a player (usually a running back) every other day to injured reserve, Harbaugh's ability to hold things together and get this team to believe in itself to the extent that it has just stands out. Long way to go here as well, but based on what has happened so far, he gets my vote, albeit narrowly.

Fowler: Good coaches thrive off chaos and adversity, so Harbaugh rising to that occasion will warrant serious consideration. I'll go Vrabel in a close race with Kingsbury. Both have been fantastic. Tennessee, however, wasn't exactly a trendy pick to sit atop the AFC at the midway point, with impressive wins over the Bills, Chiefs and Rams, the last two in dominant fashion. The Titans lost their best player and just, ho-hum, plugged in a 36-year-old replacement in Adrian Peterson and said let's roll. The secondary is battered and wasn't overly impressive on paper anyway. Julio Jones has missed games. Hasn't mattered, due to the toughness that Vrabel engenders.

What's your top upset pick for Week 10?

Fowler: Raiders (+2.5) over Chiefs. I'm a bit surprised Las Vegas is an underdog here despite an ugly loss against the Giants. Kansas City probably needs a prolific offense to knock off the Raiders, yet it's coming off a grind-it-out win over Green Bay when it averaged 3.8 yards per play. The Raiders, who have scored at least 30 points in four games this season, played inspired football in both of last season's matchups with Kansas City.

Graziano: A bounce-back for the Fightin' Bisaccias makes a lot of sense, especially since the Chiefs absolutely do not look right. I mean, if Aaron Rodgers starts for Green Bay last week instead of Jordan Love, I don't think the Chiefs are even in that game. Heck, if Don Majkowski started instead of Love the Packers might win that game. The Chiefs are a wreck.

My pick, though, is Seahawks (+3.5) over Packers. Seattle is coming off a bye, it looks like Russell Wilson will be back, it's possible Chris Carson will be back, and they are the more desperate and better-rested team. Factor in all of the Rodgers-induced drama of the past week-plus in Green Bay -- plus the real possibility that Rodgers isn't even cleared in time for this game and it's Love again -- I think this sets up for a road upset by Seattle.

Fowler: I can dig that. Seattle is finally getting right. Still not sold on the secondary, especially if Rodgers is back. Another upset I like: Eagles (+2.5) over Denver. Philly is showing signs of life on offense, while Denver's offense is too erratic for my taste. The Broncos are also beat up in the secondary.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 10?

Graziano: I'll take Cowboys running back Tony Pollard. The Falcons' defense has been generous to opposing fantasy running backs. Pollard has run well whenever he has had the chance. Ezekiel Elliott got banged up in last week's game (though I have no reason to doubt his availability for this one). Lots of reasons to think Pollard may get a little more run than usual, and the Falcons are the type of defense against which he could have success if he does.

Fowler: I'll stick with the running back theme and take Buffalo's Devin Singletary. With Zack Moss' status uncertain while in the concussion protocol. Singletary should pick up the slack against the Jets. Buffalo is committing slightly more to the run this season, averaging 27 attempts per game compared to 25.6 attempts per game a year ago. This week's opponent is tied for worst in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed (15).

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• The Seahawks have had internal discussions about potentially signing Odell Beckham Jr., weighing the pros and cons. One obvious pro: Boost the passing game while also landing a compensatory pick when Beckham hits free agency in March. But part of the equation for Seattle is the return of second-round pick Dee Eskridge, whom they envisioned as a key target for Russell Wilson. Adding Beckham could affect the dynamic with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Eskridge as a trio. Plus, Beckham's penchant for drama might dissuade them. Talking to league execs, the sentiment is the Saints and Packers will at least look into adding Beckham. It's important to keep in mind that his trade market was not great. He'll have a market, but it won't be outrageous.

• The Panthers are bracing for Sam Darnold to miss multiple weeks due to a shoulder injury, setting the stage for backup P.J. Walker to start Sunday at Arizona. I was told Darnold's standing as a starter depended on health, so that assumes he would have remained the starter if healthy. But the Panthers have been thinking about the quarterback position for weeks as Darnold continues to struggle, so it feels like just about anything is fair game at this point. The Panthers rank 29th in passing offense, which is not what they envisioned when trading for Darnold this offseason. With seven touchdowns to 11 interceptions, Darnold's 35.8 Total QBR trails only Jared Goff (28.9) among veteran starters.

• The Cowboys feel like they are finally getting healthy in time for the season's second half. Wide receiver Michael Gallup has a chance to play this week, and the team is hopeful DeMarcus Lawrence can return as early as Thanksgiving. Defensive linemen Trysten Hill and Neville Gallimore are getting closer, too.

• The Bengals could be without a key young defensive piece for a while. Second-year linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither is having scans and meeting with doctors to determine next steps on a foot injury. No next steps are solidified, but Cincinnati will be without him for a while. Davis-Gaither has 28 tackles, three pass deflections and one forced fumble on the season.

Graziano

• The 18 touches for Christian McCaffrey in his first game back from a hamstring injury was partly the Panthers easing him back into action, but it's also (they hope) part of the new plan for him. Panthers coach Matt Rhule told me last week the team has to do a better job of finding spots to rest McCaffrey and keep him away from the kind of workload he used to have. Rhule has coached 25 games with the Panthers, and of those, Sunday's was just the fourth that McCaffrey both started and finished. Rhule said the team is in a better position to execute the plan to give McCaffrey more rest than they used to be, since they now have a better idea which plays they can use to maximize the value of guys such as Chuba Hubbard. Expect McCaffrey to be a focal point of Carolina's offense as long as he's healthy, but likely not to the extent he used to be.

• Jimmy Garoppolo's Total QBR over the past two weeks is 76.8, which is the third-best in the league over that time. Pay no attention to the fact the two guys ahead of him are Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith, because that distracts from my point, which is that Garoppolo has been playing some of his best football at a time when people are wondering whether Kyle Shanahan is about to turn things over to rookie first-round pick Trey Lance. The 3-5 49ers' season is teetering a bit, and they likely could use a boost, but I do not get the sense that Shanahan is about to turn to Lance. Whether that's because he doesn't think Lance is ready (likely, since he came into the league as inexperienced as any of the rookie QBs) or whether it's because he feels Garoppolo truly gives them the best chance to win right now, everything points to Shanahan sticking with Garoppolo for Monday night and beyond. Lance probably starts at some point this season, but it could be a while yet.

• The Raiders' signing of wide receiver DeSean Jackson in the wake of releasing Henry Ruggs was about a specific thing Jackson still brings at this late stage of his career -- deep speed. The team isn't expecting Jackson to play the same number of snaps as Ruggs played, but they have -- and like -- Zay Jones to spell some of that. They believe having Jackson on the field for even a few snaps per game will force defenses to pay attention to the potential for a big play deep down the field the way they may have with Ruggs. It wasn't a matter of choosing Jackson over Odell Beckham Jr. to fill a need at wide receiver; it was about the type of receiver Jackson is.