Predicting NFL Week 9 upset picks, fantasy football sleepers and flops, plus trade deadline winners and losers

The NFL trade deadline came and passed on a relatively quiet Tuesday, with just a few players changing teams. That doesn't mean there weren't any big deals, however, most notably with the Rams going all-in (again) on Monday by trading for future Hall of Fame pass-rusher Von Miller.

How did the Rams and Broncos fare in the trade, and who were the biggest winners and losers from the deadline? We tapped our insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler to answer those questions and look ahead to Week 9 of the NFL season.

Graziano and Fowler talked through what's next for Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson and Browns wideout Odell Beckham Jr., who both stayed put Tuesday, and they also picked a Super Bowl contender that could have done more to improve.

They also made upset picks for a loaded Week 9 slate, projected players to start and sit in fantasy football and emptied their notebooks, with nuggets on the Texans not clearing out their roster, the Giants not finding a taker for an underachieving former first-rounder and a potential Saints addition to come. Let's dig into a few questions ahead of this week's games:

Jump to:
Deadline winners | Losers
Upsets | Fantasy flops | Underrated
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

Which player or team is the biggest winner after the trade deadline?

Fowler: Von Miller and the Rams. He gets another crack at a Super Bowl and has Aaron Donald to help balance out those double-team attempts from opposing offensive lines. He gets to live in Los Angeles and leave Denver a legend. Sure, the Rams gave up second- and third-round picks. But the third-rounder was basically a nice gesture for the Broncos covering $9 million of Miller's remaining salary. The Rams' well-stocked roster can offset the loss of picks, at least for this year. And the 32-year-old Miller still has a few years left of playing football at a high level.

Graziano: I like the trade for the Rams, but don't underestimate its benefit to the Broncos, who effectively paid $9 million for those second- and third-round picks. Denver is going to be in the quarterback market next offseason, so the more picks, the better. The Broncos now have five in the first three rounds in the 2022 draft, the kind of capital that can help a team maneuver. If they want Miller back next season, he's a free agent. They could just re-sign him.

My pick here is new Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz. I know he was emotional about leaving Philadelphia and that he'd made himself a part of the fabric of the place. But that team isn't going anywhere this season. It wants to commit to Dallas Goedert, and Ertz picked up a few games in the standings by getting traded to Arizona. Ertz's situation improved as much as anyone's I can think of the past couple of weeks.

Fowler: Ertz already has established a connection with Kyler Murray. The Cardinals have been so all-in that I kind of expected them to make 12 trades on Tuesday. I also like what Denver did, flipping two defensive players for picks in the second, third and sixth rounds (it also sent CB Kary Vincent Jr. to Philly). Teams eyeing high-stakes quarterback help this offseason need ample draft capital.

OK, so who's the biggest loser of the deadline?

Graziano: Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson. It was always a longshot that he would be traded by the deadline, and the Texans' decision to hold onto him and see if the offseason brings greater clarity on his off-field situation -- he faces 22 active civil lawsuits -- as well as a broader market of interested teams is no surprise. But Watson obviously wanted something to happen. The fact that it didn't means he's stuck in Houston, where he doesn't want to be, for the rest of the season without playing football.

Fowler: Give me Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Tuesday felt like a well-orchestrated trade request by Beckham, with his dad posting Instagram clips of Beckham getting open and criticizing Baker Mayfield in the comments while LeBron James led the #FreeOBJ charge on Twitter. Beckham doesn't have to say a word for us to know he wants out of Cleveland. But the Browns balked at any overtures from Beckham's camp and basically said ... deal with us.

Maybe Cleveland can convince Beckham on catalyzing a playoff push, but the front office can't be happy with the optics here. Mayfield and Beckham have the chemistry of Anakin and Padme in "Attack of The Clones." But other than cutting him -- and eating the rest of his $14.5-million, mostly guaranteed salary -- the Browns have little recourse.

Graziano: Fun fact: I am a Star Wars obsessive who saw the original in the theaters as a kid, but I have never successfully stayed for the entirety of "Attack of the Clones."

Fowler: I'll also take the Packers here. Affordable tight end options existed, and the Robert Tonyan injury leaves them thin. Green Bay can work with Marcedes Lewis and second-year man Josiah Deguara, but one more piece could have helped. Giants tight end Evan Engram was available, likely for a Day 3 pick. And less costly options such as Jacob Hollister or Jordan Akins would have required less.

Graziano: I believe the strength of the Packers' roster is generally underrated. I agree that Tonyan is a tough loss, and they could have used someone at that position. But more than maybe any team, they believe in their draft-and-develop program and have had tremendous success sticking to it. I'm not surprised they decided against trading a draft pick for an imperfect patch at tight end. I still think they'll end up in the Super Bowl.

What's your top upset pick for Week 9?

Fowler: Packers (+8) over Chiefs. I could be way off here with Aaron Rodgers now out due to a positive COVID-19 test, but Green Bay is battle-tested. The Packers just knocked off the unbeaten Cardinals without their top-three receivers. They are coming off 10 days rest with more weapons expected back. And Green Bay's multi-dimensional rushing attack with running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will take pressure off Jordan Love and pose problems for a Chiefs defense still in transition.

Graziano: I'm going real bold here and pick the Texans (+6.5) over the Dolphins. I have no reason to pick the Texans to win anything based on their recent performance and the overall state of their roster. But the thing is, I feel the same way about the Dolphins. They have a massive mess down there, and call this a gut feeling that Houston gets it together to beat a team that may have better personnel but can't figure itself out.

Fowler: This whole setup will be awkward, Dan, with two teams that negotiated on and off for weeks about Deshaun Watson now having to glad-hand on the sidelines pregame. This promises to be some bad football. But the Dolphins showed me enough last week against Buffalo -- blitzing Josh Allen early and often -- that Tua Tagovailoa can manage the Miami offense to its second victory.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 9?

Graziano: Eagles running back Boston Scott. Teams want to run the ball against the Chargers and have had success doing it. They've allowed the fifth-most points to fantasy running backs. And no, the Eagles haven't used their backs much this season. But they identified last week that they could attack the Lions on the ground and had success doing so. I think that will embolden them to keep at it this week against another team that's vulnerable to the run.

Fowler: Scott feels like a must-play now that Nick Sirianni has discovered that running the football forward with a halfback is a part of the game. My pick: new Titans running back Adrian Peterson. I know he's still on the practice squad but Peterson is a plug-and-play tailback. You don't sign him to develop him -- you sign him to use him often. And Tennessee's offense is largely predicated on the ground game, even without Derrick Henry.

Graziano: I know from talking to people there that they think Peterson is in great shape, and they aren't ruling out using him this week. Obviously a lot depends on how the week of practice goes, but he could end up getting a significant share of the carries. Their stated plan is "running back by committee" to replace Henry (an impossible task), but certainly there's opportunity for someone to get hot and literally run away with the job.

Fowler: Yeah, how Ryan Tannehill handles this will be fascinating. He has been a steady presence in Tennessee, but the Titans' attack relied so heavily on Henry that I'm not sure what he will be without him. Curious to find out whether he can handle more command of the offense.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop for Week 9?

Fowler: Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore. Love Moore's game, and he showed a connection with Mike White with six catches for 67 yards on six targets against the Bengals. But it's hard to expect White to sling the ball around so effortlessly in back-to-back weeks, and the Colts defense is feeling ornery after the team's 3-5 start. It will come out with an edge.

Graziano: Love the call on Moore. He's a guy who could have a major second half of the season, though. The Jets would love to get him more involved, and I wonder if Corey Davis' injury provided the reminder that they needed to try and do that.

I'll take Patriots running back Damien Harris. The Panthers allow the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs and have been consistently good at limiting opposing run games' production all season. Harris had a big game last week and is the guy the Pats rely on in the run game, but they'll have to win this game with their defense and Mac Jones' arm.

Fowler: And history tells us relying on one Patriots back to dominate an entire season isn't always so reliable. New England is getting better each week, though. Harris sure looks like a staple -- 69 carries over the past four games -- but the previous two weeks he had a combined 10 carries. Belichick backs are always tough to project.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• The Rams traded for Von Miller with the long-term view in mind. Both sides are expected to discuss a potential contract extension in the coming days or weeks. Miller has $9.7 million left on his club option, most of which Denver is paying. Expect Los Angeles to aim for a multi-year deal to let him finish out his career as a Ram. The caveat is if he's eager to hit free agency, which is entirely possible.

• The Packers did do their homework on tight ends, and several teams believed they might actually make the move. They have long liked Atlanta's Hayden Hurst, who would have been available at the right price. But this just isn't a splash-move franchise. And based on the resourceful Packers win over Arizona last week, Green Bay can overcome injuries.

• Houston was prepared to trade plenty of assets Tuesday. Among available players who didn't get dealt -- Phillip Lindsay, Zach Cunningham, Lonnie Johnson and Jordan Akins (and, of course, Deshaun Watson). The Texans, however, couldn't muster enough return for those players. Cunningham would have had value but his cap hits of $5.7 and $14.8 million over the next two years hurt his chances. So they walked away from the deadline with a future sixth-round pick for Charles Omenihu, courtesy of San Francisco. Brandin Cooks got legitimate interest, but the team wanted to keep him.

• The Saints poked around on receiver help this week, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see New Orleans call on the recently released DeSean Jackson, who should have multiple suitors. The Raiders could check in on Jackson, as well.

Graziano

• The Browns didn't get enough interest in Odell Beckham Jr. to consider trading him before the deadline. They continue to believe he has a role to play in their offense. He hasn't made waves in the building, and they believe the answer to their offensive problems is to find a way to work with the pieces they have rather than trading pieces away. If they decide they don't want Beckham around anymore, they could still waive him post-deadline and hope some other team claims him and takes the contract off their hands. But it doesn't sound like that's the situation as of now.

• Giants fans (at least the ones on my Twitter feed) seemed disappointed Tuesday afternoon by the news that the team wouldn't be trading tight end Evan Engram, taking it as some sort of sign of incompetence by the front office that they couldn't get anything in return for the disappointing former first-round pick who's in the final year of his contract. But my understanding is that the team did not get any real offers for Engram, and the last time I checked, you can't make a trade without another team being involved besides yours. There were teams asking the Giants about wide receiver Darius Slayton, but the Giants are so banged-up at wide receiver that they decided whatever was being offered wasn't enough to justify having to play without Slayton.

• Just to clarify on what happens now, post-deadline: A vested veteran (player with 4-plus years of service) who is released by his team from this point on will have to go through waivers before becoming a free agent. For example, the Rams couldn't trade DeSean Jackson, so they waived him after the deadline passed. Every other team in the league now has the opportunity to put in a claim for Jackson. If a team does so and has the winning claim, Jackson and the remainder of his fully guaranteed $2.75 million salary become the new team's responsibility. (In this scenario, the claiming team would have to pay about $1.53 million to Jackson for the final 10 weeks of the season. If Jackson clears waivers (i.e. no team claims him, as seems likely), then the Rams still owe him the balance of his guaranteed salary and any team can sign him to a new contract.

• Also, to re-emphasize a point we made in this space a few weeks ago: If a player who has a no-trade clause is waived at this point in the season (after the trade deadline), and that player is claimed by another team, he would have the right to void the remainder of his contract at the end of the season. For example, if the Texans were to cut Watson right now and the Dolphins were to claim him, he could decide at the end of this season to void the remainder of his deal and become a free agent next March. To be clear, this is a hypothetical example and, in the case of Watson, has literally no chance of happening. Jimmy Garoppolo is probably a more realistic example of this case, though there's no indication at this time that the 49ers would, could or need to cut him.

• One more note: This is certainly not intended to overlook the devastating and tragic real-world implications of the Henry Ruggs III situation, but since the Raiders released him Tuesday night (and since this is an NFL column), there are surely people reading this who wonder about the financial and salary-cap implications for the team. Ruggs will be in default of the remaining guaranteed money on his contract, which includes about $760,000 more in salary this year plus about $2.126 million in 2022 and about $2.883 million in 2023. The Raiders also might be able to go after his signing bonus money, according to CBA contract rules. Ruggs' entire signing bonus of $9,684,820 was paid in full as of October 2020, six months after the team selected him in the first round of the draft. But if he is incarcerated, that gives the Raiders the right to try to get that money back from him. (If successful, they'd get the cash back and a credit on their salary cap.) Again, there's no guarantee the franchise would pursue that path, and obviously there are significantly more important issues attached to this situation. But we do understand that fans who track follow their team's salary cap might, at some point, be curious about this relatively minor football-related point.