Overreacting to one week is fun, but not instructive. Overreacting to something that happens over a two-week stretch? A little bit more reliable.
Yes, we do this exercise every week. But the NFL season has nearly completed seven weeks at this point, and some of the stuff we think we know is starting to crystallize.
For instance, we've done a Chiefs overreaction each of the past two weeks, and they were direct opposites of each other. Based on the season overall to this point, though, it looks like the one from two weeks ago -- "The Chiefs are in trouble" -- might have been the right one on which to focus.
Also, because we've done the Chiefs two weeks in a row, we aren't going to do them this week. Let's start, instead, with the team that thumped them Sunday to complete the exacta of beating both of last season's AFC Championship Game participants in a seven-day span.
The Titans are Super Bowl contenders
I had a hunch the Titans would beat the Chiefs at home Sunday, given the way they looked in beating the Bills on Monday night and the way the Chiefs have looked for much of this season. But regardless of which team I picked, I was pretty sure the Chiefs would at least be in the game. They were not.
The Titans beat the Chiefs 27-3. A.J. Brown, who barely practiced last week, caught eight passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. Derrick Henry had a somewhat pedestrian (for him) 86 yards, but he did manage to throw a touchdown pass, just in case MVP voters are determined to give the MVP award to a guy who threw at least one of those this year.
Patrick Mahomes posted a Total QBR of 6.0, which was the lowest of any quarterback in the early-game window, including Carolina's Sam Darnold, who got benched for his performance against the lowly Giants. (Justin Fields had a 1.9 QBR later in the day.) It was 27-0 at the half and a boat race from there. To be clear: The Titans needed only two quarters to beat the Chiefs.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. How could it be, after a week in which they beat the Bills and the Chiefs? Kansas City is the two-time defending AFC champion, and Buffalo opened the season as a lot of people's favorite to unseat the Chiefs.
One of the many things this means is that, should the Titans end up tied with either Buffalo or Kansas City for the top seed (and lone bye) in the AFC playoffs, they would get that top seed by virtue of a tiebreaker. Bigger picture, though, it means they can play with and beat anyone in the conference.
We've known for a few years now that a full-strength Titans offense is something to fear, but they've really struggled on defense, so the Chiefs' three points might be more noteworthy from this one than the Titans' 27.
The Bengals are AFC North favorites
As with the Titans, I had a hunch the Bengals might win this one. Unfortunately, unlike with the Titans, I didn't have the guts to actually pick the upset. Lamar Jackson was 5-0 in his career against the Bengals, and the games hadn't generally been very close. The Ravens had won five in a row since their Week 1 overtime loss to the Raiders, and they'd crushed the red-hot Chargers just one week earlier. Plus, all of the history of the Bengals just Bengaling up games like these -- it was hard to feel any kind of confidence about it.
Fortunately for Cincinnati, confidence is not something Joe Burrow lacks. The Bengals stretched a 13-10 halftime lead into a 41-17 final score and the statement win of the week. Burrow had 416 passing yards and three touchdowns. Rookie wideout Ja'Marr Chase, who by now we can all agree was the right pick at No. 5 overall in April's draft, caught eight of his college buddy's passes for 201 yards and one electrifying 82-yard touchdown. The better-than-you-realize Bengals defense got all of the stops it needed to get in the second half against a player who has terrorized it.
And the Bengals wake up Monday in sole possession of first place in the division, tied for the best record in the AFC (5-2).
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Bengals should have beaten the Packers in Week 5, but for a couple of missed field goals. They should have beaten the Bears in Week 2, but for Burrow throwing interceptions on three straight passes. The Bengals could legitimately be 7-0! The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) now gives them a 41.7% chance to win the division, which is slightly better than the Ravens (36.8%).
The revamped defense actually is that good, and the Burrow-Chase connection is ... well, frankly it's terrifying, both in its present potency and its long-term potential. The Ravens knew they were in for a tough one this week, and they were not wrong.
Could Baltimore or Cleveland or even Pittsburgh still assert itself and steal the division away from its perennial punching bag? Of course. But as of now, they're all chasing Burrow's Bengals, who have a much different look about them than we're used to seeing.
The Patriots will make the playoffs
**Scrolls through box scores** Wait ... the Patriots scored 54 points on Sunday? And they played only the one game? Huh. Didn't see that coming. Mac Jones had 307 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Damien Harris had 106 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
The Pats knocked out Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson and had a big ol' party with the highest team score of the week. They're 3-4 and in solo second place, a game-and-a-half behind Buffalo in the AFC East.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Look, they're only a game behind Cleveland for the final AFC wild-card spot, which means they're in the mix. But the other teams in that mix include not only Cleveland but also the Steelers, Chiefs, Broncos, Colts -- it's a muddle in the AFC. In fact, FPI gives them only a 30.8% chance to make the playoffs,
It's hard to bet against Bill Belichick and yada yada, but the Pats still have a rookie quarterback and a lot of questions to answer before we put them in January games. Can't rule them out, but also can't put them in the postseason based off one big game against a really woeful Jets team.
The Panthers, not the Dolphins, will trade for Deshaun Watson
Both teams lost Sunday, but that's only part of the story. With just over a week left before the Nov. 2 trade deadline, Watson is going to be in the headlines until he's dealt or until the deadline passes and he hasn't been. Sam Darnold was so bad he was benched in Sunday's loss to the Giants, and Carolina's 3-0 start feels like a distant memory as it sits at 3-4 and in last place in the NFC South.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Miami has been the most interested team -- as we reported earlier this month -- and it seems as if it is also the team in which Watson (who has a no-trade clause and can therefore dictate his destination) is most interested.
But if you think back to February and March -- before 22 civil lawsuits were filed against Watson accusing him of sexual assault and inappropriate sexual behavior -- Carolina was by far the most aggressive team in pursuit of Houston's quarterback. The Panthers ended up trading instead for Darnold, who's guaranteed $18.585 million for 2022. Deep-pocketed team owner David Tepper, however, is believed to want a true franchise quarterback and should be willing to pay for one.
To be clear: I still don't think Watson gets traded before the deadline, which means a whole bunch of teams could be in this mix next offseason. Carolina should be one of them -- it was once the team most people in the league believed was most likely to make a deal for Watson.
Baker Mayfield won't get a contract extension, but Daniel Jones will
Mayfield's Browns beat the Broncos on Thursday night, not only without Mayfield but also without their top two running backs and right tackle. If you were looking for a game to prove the Browns don't have to pay Mayfield at the top of the quarterback market, you've got one. We'll see how the Browns play if Mayfield has to miss more time, but so far it's a big point in their favor in those negotiations, with Mayfield set to be a free agent in 2023.
Meantime, the flip side of Sam Darnold's rough day was a nice one for the Giants and Jones, who rebounded from a rough Week 6 against the Rams with a really solid Week 7. Jones was 23-for-33 passing for 203 yards and a touchdown. He ran for 28 yards on eight carries, and he caught a 16-yard pass.
The turnover problems against the Rams were cause for everyone to sound the same old alarm bells about Jones, but they might well have been an aberration in a career that has really, over the past calendar year, started to put the turnover woes in the rearview mirror.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. I still think -- actually, I know -- that the Browns would bring Mayfield back for the right price. I don't think they want to pay him at Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen levels, but they believe they can win with him and would pay him in the mid-to-high $30 millions per year to stick around.
I also know the Giants' coaches believe in Jones as their potential franchise quarterback and think they've calmed down the turnover issues. He is extension-eligible for the first time in this coming offseason, but the Giants hold a 2023 fifth-year option if they want to see more.
In the end, I think both of these guys end up with extensions that keep them with the teams that drafted them, even if Jones might have more upside due to his athletic ability.