It is only Week 5, but NFL front offices don't plan from week to week. They plan in three-year chunks. And with the Nov. 2 trade deadline now less than four weeks away, you're going to start seeing some moves aimed at managing next year's salary cap.
You already have, actually. The Dallas Cowboys' release of linebacker Jaylon Smith this week was directly connected to their fear of his injury-only-guaranteed $9.2 million 2022 salary. With rookie Micah Parsons playing like a superstar, the Cowboys' linebacker room was overcrowded, almost certainly pushing Smith out of their future plans. The longer they carried him, the more they risked him getting hurt and having to pay him $9.2 million next year. Now, they don't have to worry about that.
As moves start to happen that have ripple effects next year and beyond, we wanted to take a look at which teams have the best and worst projected salary-cap situations for 2022. Let's start with the worst, because, frankly, they're more interesting. (Note: For this exercise, we used a $208.2 million salary cap, which is the highest it can possibly be in 2022, per an agreement between the NFL and the NFLPA.)
Worst 2022 salary-cap situations
New Orleans Saints
Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $54 million over the cap
It's always the Saints, it seems, and the annual story of their offseason is how they managed to get cap compliant. They've done it before and they'll do it again. How do things get so bad, so often? Well, there are basically two ways of dealing with cap issues. The first is for teams to slash the big contracts off their rosters and take the big hit in one year. The Miami Dolphins did this in 2019, carrying more than $60 million in dead money but setting themselves up to operate freely in the years that followed. The second way is to restructure contracts and push cap issues down the road into future years. The Saints have done a lot of this over the years, which explains why they always end up on these lists.
How do they get out of it? Well, they have the usual handful of guys making eight-figure base salaries that could be converted into signing bonuses for 2022 cap relief -- Michael Thomas, Cameron Jordan, Andrus Peat, Ryan Ramczyk. They could save more than $9 million by cutting Bradley Roby in the offseason (or about $8.5 million by extending him).
The biggest issue they have is three guys who aren't under contract for next year but will cost them big cap numbers even if they leave. Terron Armstead, Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston all have contracts that automatically void after 2021. And even if they all leave, they'll cost the Saints a combined total of $24.88 million in dead-money cap space in 2022. Plus, New Orleans would still need a quarterback and a left tackle. I don't know how the Saints will dig themselves out of this one, but I do know they're the best at doing so, and I'm sure Saints fans are used to not getting too worried about it.
Green Bay Packers
Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $27 million over the cap
This projection factors in the roughly $7 million in cap space the Packers currently have for 2021 and assumes they would carry it over into 2022. (We didn't do that for the Saints, because their current 2021 cap space is minimal.) The key element here is that the Packers are likely to save an immediate $19.3 million in cap space when they inevitably cut or trade quarterback Aaron Rodgers after this season. That move will get them close, and assuming 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love is ready to take over at quarterback, they won't need to spend big at that position.
They would lose top wideout Davante Adams to free agency in this scenario, so it's possible they look to add from the outside at that position. To clear room to bring him back, the Packers could save about $28 million in cap space by moving on from the "Smith Brothers" -- Preston and Za'Darius -- and by extending the contract of top cornerback Jaire Alexander, which would knock down his 2022 cap number of $13.294 million by quite a bit. They'll save another $6.8 million by cutting wideout Randall Cobb, who's on the team this season only because Rodgers asked for him.
The Packers can get out of their cap trouble pretty easily. They just need to make sure they have ready replacements on the roster for the key players they let go.
Dallas Cowboys
Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $20 million over the cap
The Jaylon Smith cut drops $6.8 million in dead money on Dallas' 2022 cap and more than offsets any 2021 room the team could carry over. That said, the Cowboys would save $16 million by moving on from Amari Cooper, $8 million by moving on from DeMarcus Lawrence, $5 million by moving on from Anthony Brown, $4.25 million by moving on from Blake Jarwin -- you get the idea.
The Cowboys can find this cap space if they need to. And the way they've drafted in recent years makes you think they can find replacements for the players they do decide to cut or trade. Cowboys fans will just have to come to grips with the idea that the team won't be a big player in free agency. But honestly, if they've been paying attention, they should be used to that by now.
Minnesota Vikings
Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $5 million over the cap
The Vikings have about the same amount of dead money on their 2022 books as the Cowboys do, thanks to the hits left over from Kyle Rudolph, Jeff Gladney and a handful of others no longer with the team. The big albatross for Minnesota is, of course, the fully guaranteed $35 million salary of quarterback Kirk Cousins, whose total 2022 cap number is a whopping $45 million. Theoretically, the Vikings could save $35 million on next year's cap by trading Cousins, but that assumes some other team would take on the whole contract. That feels unlikely.
They could get cap compliant with some restructures (the most short-term helpful of which would be Cousins, though that would push the problem into future years). They could save more than $14 million if they moved on from Danielle Hunter, more than $7 million from cutting Eric Kendricks and more than $5 million from parting ways with Adam Thielen, but they are all still useful players and would trigger dead-money charges if moved.
From this far out, the bet would be on Minnesota using restructures or a series of smaller cuts to get where it needs to be. Assuming, of course, that 2022 isn't the year the Vikings decide to cut bait on Cousins.
New York Giants
Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $4 million over the cap
The Giants are one of the teams that reliably spends to the cap, which means they currently have the least amount of possible rollover space, and they're already kind of up against it for next year. It helps them that Daniel Jones will still be on the fourth year of his rookie contract, counting just $8.366 million against the 2022 cap. It hurts them that they have to either carry Saquon Barkley on a $7.217 million fifth-year option or give him the kind of big running back extension that has worked out poorly for many other teams.
If need be, they could clear cap space with restructures of the James Bradberry, Kenny Golladay and Leonard Williams deals. And I'm not saying they would do this, but cutting or trading Bradberry would clear $13.5 million just like that. The Giants should be able to clear enough room to pursue whomever they want.
One thing to watch with teams such as the Giants, Jets and Eagles, though, is the "hidden" cost of having an extra first-round draft pick. Not factored into these cap projections we're using is the money teams have to set aside to sign their draft picks (mainly because we don't have any idea yet where those picks will fall in the draft order). The Giants have their pick and the Bears' first-rounder. If both of those picks end up in the top 10 -- and the Giants were to stay put and use them both -- it would cost them close to $7 million against next year's cap to sign those two draft picks.
Best 2022 salary-cap situations
Miami Dolphins
Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $78 million under the cap
The Dolphins took their big dead-money hits in 2019, as mentioned, and are in good cap shape moving forward even though they've been big spenders in free agency the past couple of years. They also have a quarterback who'll be entering the third year of his rookie deal and counting just $8.257 million against the 2022 cap. The problem? They might be looking to upgrade over Tua Tagovailoa, and if they were to trade for Deshaun Watson, for example, they'd be taking on a $35 million cap hit for 2022.
Also not factored into this is the possibility that the Dolphins would use the franchise player designation on, say, tight end Mike Gesicki. That would use up about $11 million of their 2022 cap space. But think about that: They could trade for Watson and franchise Gesicki and still have about $32 million in cap room.
The Dolphins are set up to do whatever they want. They have only about $300,000 in dead money assigned to their 2022 cap.
Denver Broncos
Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $76 million under the cap
The Broncos are right there with Miami for 2022 cap flexibility, though they have a more certain need to address at quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater is on a one-year deal, so if he keeps playing well and they want him back, it could cost about $25 million to franchise him. If they want to acquire Aaron Rodgers, it would cost them about $27 million, assuming no adjustments to his contract. We already mentioned that Watson would cost $35 million.
Point is, the Broncos have to account for a big quarterback number that is not currently on their 2022 cap, unless they were to find their franchise QB in the draft.
Von Miller, Melvin Gordon III and Bryce Callahan are due to come off the books in 2022, and re-signing whichever of them the Broncos want back would cut into the total as well. But Denver has about $16 million in 2021 cap space it could roll over into 2022. This team is in great shape.
Los Angeles Chargers
Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $75 million under the cap
Now, the Chargers, unlike the two teams ahead of them on this list, have no intention of going out looking for a quarterback next offseason. Justin Herbert will cost them $7.249 million against the cap, which looks like an absolute steal. They aren't even allowed, by rule, to discuss an extension with him until after the 2022 season. Herbert's rookie deal should be the gift that keeps on giving.
The Chargers would have room to franchise wide receiver Mike Williams for $18.8 million if they wanted to do that -- or replace him with Davante Adams on a monster deal if they wanted to play in the free-agent market. Key contributors such as Austin Ekeler, Derwin James Jr., Rashawn Slater and Kenneth Murray Jr. all have very reasonable cap numbers in 2022 -- and the Chargers could make James' even lower with an extension.
Considering the Chargers' confidence in Herbert as an already-elite option at the most important and expensive position, you could make the case that they have the best cap situation in the league. They even have about $11 million still left this year they could roll over if it lasts them through December.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $72 million under the cap
The way this season has started out in Jacksonville, it's entirely possible the Jaguars will have the No. 1 overall pick for the second year in a row. That would cost them about $4.5 million in cap space. But they don't need a quarterback, having just selected Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall in April, and they don't have a screaming franchise-tag candidate, unless they want to tag left tackle Cam Robinson, again, for $16.5 million this time.
The Jags will have the cap space to operate in whatever way they like in the 2022 offseason. Which is good, because of the teams on this list so far, they easily need the most work. They also have about $30 million in remaining 2021 cap space that can be rolled over into 2022, assuming they don't add anyone of major financial consequence the rest of the way.
New York Jets
Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $64 million under the cap
This is another team that took a quarterback high in April's draft and has no crying needs for big expenditures in 2022. Even if the Jets franchised safety Marcus Maye again (which doesn't feel likely), you'd be talking about only another $12.7 million.
With two first-round picks and two more in the second round, the Jets likely will have to budget about $6-7 million worth of cap space to sign their picks, but they can obviously afford that. And if they want to dip into free agency to build quickly around Zach Wilson, they will have the ammunition they need.
Other notes and situations to watch
The Washington Football Team is flush with projected 2022 cap space -- right around that same $64 million the Jets have. It will be in the quarterback market as well, so a lot of its cap room will probably have to be set aside for that. But with that much cap room -- plus the roughly $13 million it currently has left for 2021 -- things could get really interesting. Washington could, theoretically (and I'm not saying it will), franchise guard Brandon Scherff for the third year in a row, which would cost just under $26 million.
The Philadelphia Eagles, assuming Carson Wentz plays at least 75% of the Colts' offensive snaps, will have three first-round picks, which could cost them more than $10 million in cap space if they pick and sign all three. Philly projects to be about $14 million under the cap, so it will have some work to do in the offseason no matter what. The Eagles do have about $16 million left over in 2021 cap space, but we can never rule out the possibility of them making an in-season trade that eats up a chunk of that.
The Houston Texans are middle-of-the-pack with a projected $33 million or so in 2022 cap space (plus about $8 million still left on this year's cap). But talk about a situation that could change in a hurry. Deshaun Watson's projected 2022 cap hit is $40.4 million if he stays in Houston, but the Texans would save $24.2 million of that if they traded him. They could save another $9.5 million with a Laremy Tunsil trade, another $8.7 million if they traded Brandin Cooks, and so on. Teams are watching to see whether general manager Nick Caserio will trade some of the veterans he signed this offseason for picks ahead of the Nov. 2 deadline. If Houston is active in dealing away veterans for picks, its 2022 cap space could skyrocket.