Predicting NFL Week 5 upset picks, fantasy football sleepers and flops, plus buzz and notes around the league

We're heading into Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season, and with just one 4-0 team, we're seeing a lot of parity. We asked ESPN insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for some insight into this week's slate. Which rookies have left the biggest impression so far this season? Which teams with a 1-3 record have the best chance to make a playoff run? And what about that Sunday night showdown between the Chiefs and the Bills?

Our experts share their favorite upset picks for Week 5, including an unsuspecting team who is 3-1 to start the year. And for fantasy managers looking to make all the right moves, Graziano and Fowler name must-start sleepers and point out potential fantasy flops of the week. They get into all of it, emptying their notebooks with everything they've heard this week, including injury updates for the Bears and 49ers, and what the Jaguars' team owner's statement on Urban Meyer means for the team.

Let's get started with the upset picks of the week, but you can also jump to other big questions for Week 5.

Jump to:
Upsets | 1-3 teams
Fantasy flops | Fantasy starts
Impressive rookies | More notes

What's your top upset pick for Week 5?

Graziano: Bills (+2.5) over Chiefs. Come on. There can be only one, right? This is the game for the Bills, who I think are the best team in the AFC and get a prime-time opportunity to show everyone. When I visited Buffalo's training camp, there was a lot of talk about the way last season ended, with a flop of a loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The Bills believe they were and are better than they were that day. They're on fire right now and will be amped up for this game on a different level. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are still piecing some things together. I believe Kansas City will be fine, but right now Buffalo has a chance to assert itself, and I say that's what happens.

Fowler: I can dig this -- the Bills' defense has pitched two shutouts this season. We've seen this year's Chiefs' defense looks sluggish, and Kansas City is 1-7 against the spread in the last eight games in Arrowhead.

My pick: Bengals (+3) over Packers. Joe Burrow is changing the Bengals' franchise with heady play. Cincinnati has enough offensive weapons to match Green Bay for points, and the defense has steadily improved.

Graziano: Ooh! I like it. I couldn't go that far and pick them to beat the Packers, who are still my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. But this is my game for Sunday NFL Countdown this week, and I'm eager to see whether the Bengals' really fun offense can hang with Aaron Rodgers. I am a Burrow believer, for sure. I'm just a little worried about Joe Mixon's health and, in general, whether they're really ready to hang with the league's top teams like that. It's one thing to come back after a sleepy first half against Jacksonville. It's another thing to take out the Pack. But it would be fun to see them keep the AFC North a three-team race.

Which 1-3 team is most likely to turn it around and make a playoff run?

Fowler: I continue to pick the Colts and they haven't made me look very smart. But this is a good roster that should be able to overcome an ugly start. They will get healthy eventually. Carson Wentz showed signs of life in a get-right win in Miami, and the running game has a chance to be top-shelf behind Jonathan Taylor.

Graziano: I have to think Frank Reich gets things turned around. He hasn't really had his team, with Wentz banged up and half the offensive line out every week. That will get better, and Wentz is determined to get his career back on track. My only concern with Indy is whether it gets too buried. But it's not as if Tennessee is running away with the division. Maybe the Colts can keep it close until they get all the way healthy and the schedule eases out.

I'll go with the Dolphins. Looking at the remaining schedule, I see home games against the Jaguars, Falcons and Texans, and both of their Jets games are still to come. I totally recognize how bad the Dolphins have looked and their questions at the quarterback spot. But they're better than they've looked so far, and the schedule offers them the opportunity to bounce back.

Fowler: Miami's quarterback play can't get much worse, and upgrades are on the way via Tua Tagovailoa, who is likely to return in Week 6 to boost the offense. In the NFC, I've got a sneaky feeling the Giants can make some progress. This is a flawed team, but they compete. And they caught some bad breaks in losses to Washington and Atlanta.

Graziano: The Giants' offense is only going to get healthier, and Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay already look much healthier than they did in September.

Which rookie has impressed you most so far?

Graziano: We can watch Cowboys defender Micah Parsons fly around and make plays and figure this out without giving it too much thought. But there's no way to overstate how incredible it is that they can ask him to do so many different things. As a rookie, he's functioned as a sideline-to-sideline linebacker, a pass-rusher, whatever they've needed him to do. And he has done it at a high level. The No. 12 pick is a difference-maker on a defense that needed to be a lot different than it was last season

Fowler: Parsons was probably the best defensive player in the draft, and he's shown that, though Patrick Surtain is right there for me, too. I'm most impressed with Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase. Receivers often make an impact early, so this is hardly a surprise. But the No. 5 pick is averaging 17.5 yards per catch and is pacing for 1,200-plus yards and 17 touchdowns. If we're going by production, not many are better.

Graziano: I loved talking to Burrow about Chase during training camp. This was during the time when Chase was dropping passes, and Burrow just gave this disgusted look when I asked him about it, basically saying it's fine if people want to worry about that, but he wasn't. The connection those two have is very real, and it looks likely to last a very long time. It's rare that a rookie wide receiver comes into the league and doesn't need to build trust with his quarterback. The trust there is already in place.

Fowler: And the top-two picks have impressed me despite erratic starts. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson have elite arm talent, and they are both smart enough to figure this out.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 5?

Fowler: Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Bills (at KC). Sanders has been the consistent No. 2 threat in Buffalo's offense behind Stefon Diggs, seemingly a lock for six-to-eight targets each week. This is a sensible choice: He might not go off, but he won't disappear, either. Five different receivers have posted 70-plus yards on Kansas City's secondary, including three over 100.

Graziano: Sanders is an interesting call. I would say you can't go wrong starting anyone in the Bills' offense. Can't be sure Sanders will get the two touchdowns he got two weeks ago, but there's no doubt Josh Allen knows where he is on the field and will try to get him the ball. Allen told me in training camp that Sanders "can run every route," and when I talked to him after the game two weeks ago, he said the Bills now have "three or four guys out there who can win their one-on-one matchups." Sanders might have been the final infinity stone for Buffalo.

My pick is Mike Davis, RB, Falcons (vs. NYJ). If this isn't the week, then I don't know that the week is coming. If you drafted Davis, you're very frustrated right now by the performance of the Atlanta offense overall and the fact that Cordarrelle Patterson is the one doing all the scoring. But Patterson still isn't in the game nearly as much as Davis is, and at some point Davis will have the game you drafted him to have. This week, against a Jets defense that's allowing the most fantasy points to running backs so far this season, is the prime blow-up spot.

Fowler: Yeah, I was wrong on Patterson, figuring his early-season production was an aberration based on his history as a complementary/specialty piece. But the Falcons appear to have real plans for him as a WR2/RB2.

Graziano: I guess. We'll see as the season goes along whether this early stuff is fluky or a real late-career breakout for Patterson.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop for Week 5?

Graziano: Najee Harris, RB, Steelers (vs. DEN). The rookie has looked great, but the Ravens went into Denver last week and didn't even try to run the ball against the Broncos' defense. The Ravens -- the most run-happy team in the entire league. The Steelers aren't exactly the most run-happy team in the league, are they? Hard to see how Harris gets it going this week against a defense that hasn't been kind to RB fantasy points so far this season.

Fowler: Poor Najee. He has to catch screen passes and make four defenders miss just to get eight yards. I'll go with ... Robert Woods, WR, Rams (at SEA). He hasn't caught more than five passes or eclipsed 64 yards in any game this season. When I visited the Rams' camp, Matthew Stafford threw to Cooper Kupp all practice, and I said, "That's something to remember." Four games later, Kupp has an obscene 34.3% target share with 431 yards and five touchdowns. Maybe the Rams feed Woods for balance purposes, but until that happens he could be a player worth stashing for a while.

Graziano: Amazing to me, the Woods thing. I have to think Sean McVay and Stafford are smart enough to know the value of getting him more involved at some point. He's the consummate teammate and not a boat-rocker, so I don't imagine him complaining about a lack of involvement. But that's even more reason to reward a guy!

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• The shoulder injury to Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander looms large in Green Bay. As of Tuesday, independent specialists are reviewing his scans to determine if he needs surgery or can heal the injury over time. The team should know more on Wednesday. But one of the Packers' most impactful players should be out for a while.

• People I've talked to in and around Pittsburgh would be shocked if Steelers coach Mike Tomlin benched Ben Roethlisberger any time soon. They've been together since 2007, and this could be a ride-or-die situation until Roethlisberger's contract expires after the season. Maybe mounting losses would change that, but there's no top-10 pick waiting to play, and the sense I get is Pittsburgh wants Dwayne Haskins to get a true redshirt year.

• Despite a severely depleted secondary with the top-three cornerbacks injured, the Bucs aren't planning any drastic moves at the moment. They like the smarts and veteran presence of Richard Sherman, Ross Cockrell and Pierre Desir, and the hope is Sean Murphy-Bunting (elbow) returns relatively soon. The status of Carlton Davis (quad) is still uncertain, but Tampa is hoping it can win the attrition battle here.

• The Bears anticipate Andy Dalton (knee) will make a strong push to play this week. He was a close call over the weekend before the team ultimately downgraded him. Matt Nagy has been clear that Dalton will start if he's able, so this could be the week the Bears recycle the plan to start Dalton and work rookie Justin Fields into the lineup situationally.

Graziano

• Speaking of the Bears, don't underestimate the connection between the David Montgomery injury and the Bears' quarterback plans. The Bears like Damien Williams, who can fill in for Montgomery while he recovers from a knee injury that is expected to keep him out four-to-five weeks. But they view Montgomery as a special player who can handle any and every role they give him and be a player on whom the offense can lean. Williams may be a fine player, but he's not likely to offer the same tackle-breaking upside Montgomery has. And if the Bears' coaches think the offense is going to be limited with Montgomery out, it could make them even more hesitant to stick with Fields once Dalton is able to go.

• Jimmy Garoppolo's injury in San Francisco brings up interesting questions about rookie quarterback Trey Lance and Garoppolo's own playing future. Garoppolo has a no-trade clause in his contract for this year only, so if the Niners wanted to go with Lance and trade Garoppolo to, say, the Steelers or Dolphins or someone else looking for a quarterback, he could veto it. One thing to watch, though: If a player is waived by his team after the trade deadline (which this year is Nov. 2) and that player has a no-trade clause in his contract, then he has the right to void the remainder of his contract at the end of the season and declare himself an unrestricted free agent. So let's say the 49ers get to November and have decided to turn the thing over to Lance, and they cut Garoppolo. He is currently signed through 2022. But in this hypothetical scenario, he could sign with the Steelers (or whomever) in November and become a free agent this offseason, one year early.

• Jaguars team owner Shad Khan's statement Tuesday tells us he's not planning to move on from coach Urban Meyer any time soon. But make no mistake: Meyer has plenty of cleanup work to do with his team and his players, who aren't thrilled that he skipped the flight home from Cincinnati last week and then was caught on tape the way he was at his own restaurant. The list of missteps since Meyer took over is lengthy, considering he hasn't been there that long, and the fact that the team is 0-4 obviously doesn't help anyone trust that he knows what he's doing. Unless the latest controversy spirals further, it seems unlikely that Khan will do anything during the season. But there are plenty of people in coaching circles watching Jacksonville to see whether it could be a one-and-done, Chip-Kelly-49ers-type of situation.