Predicting NFL Week 4 upset picks, fantasy football sleepers and flops, plus buzz and notes around the league

We're heading into Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season, and we're already seeing a few early trends that need to be monitored closely. We asked ESPN insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for their insight into this week's slate. They discuss everything from which team is dealing with the most impactful injury to teams and players that have changed their minds since the season has started.

Graziano and Fowler also share their favorite upset picks for Week 4, including a team seeking its first victory of the season. And for fantasy managers looking to make all the right moves, they name fringe players to start and point out potential flops to avoid. They get into all of it and cap it off by emptying their notebooks with everything else they've heard this week, including what's next for Richard Sherman, some insight on the Bills' running back situation, Steelers' T.J. Watt's status and, yes, a look into what's happening with Chicago's quarterback situation.

Let's get started with the upset picks of the week, but you can also jump to other big questions for Week 4.

Jump to:
Upsets | Surprises
Impactful injuries | Fantasy starts
Fantasy flops | Emptying the notebook

What's your top upset pick for Week 4?

Fowler: Seahawks (+3) over 49ers. Seattle is too good to fall to 1-3. Though I also said the Colts were too good to fall to 0-3, and here we are. Still, Pete Carroll typically finds a way to rally his defense after a few rough outings. The offense has fallen flat in the past two first halves, so adjustments will be made. San Francisco will be coming off an emotional loss to Green Bay.

Graziano: I almost took Seattle here, and I took a real long look at Carolina (+5) over Dallas, with the Panthers coming off mini-bye and Dallas on a short week. Carolina's defense is no joke.

But give me Lions (+3) over Bears. Detroit had its heart ripped out Sunday by Justin Tucker's record-long, winning kick. But the Lions are playing hard, their defense looks surprisingly good and I think things are a big ol' mess there in Chicago with the quarterback situation. The Lions will get on the board for the first time this season, and we could enter another week of full-throated Bear-bashing in Chicago.

Fowler: Dan, this outcome would only deepen the intrigue with an already-messy Chicago quarterback situation. If the Bears drop to 1-3, they better do so with an offensive pulse. Back-to-back inept performances don't bode well for anyone over there. They were earnest in wanting to sit rookie quarterback Justin Fields for at least a little while to help him learn the pro game. Instead of a smooth transition, Matt Nagy now finds himself juggling three quarterback options. He can't really start Nick Foles after all this, right?

Graziano: I do not believe that he can or will, no. I think all along this was the week the Bears had targeted for Fields -- if not for him to totally take over for Dalton then at least to play a more significant role. I'm interested to see how Sunday's performance affects their plans if Dalton can answer the bell.

What's one thing you've changed your mind about since the start of the season?

Graziano: I felt like I was in the minority as someone who thought the Steelers would be playoff contenders, but I'm far less certain after three weeks. The offense looks broken, Ben Roethlisberger looks cooked and injuries have prevented the defense from being able to carry them through early-season struggles (the opener in Buffalo notwithstanding). You trust Mike Tomlin, who has never had a losing season as head coach, to keep the car out of the roadside ditch. But if you didn't know his/their history, it'd be hard to watch the Steelers so far and think they have a real shot.

Fowler: I was actually with you on that, too. I believed the media was lower on Pittsburgh than the rest of the league. But nostalgia, tradition and team culture can't fix poor offensive line play and a quarterback who can no longer move. It's looking bleak, and the next four games on the schedule are tough.

I've changed my mind about Arizona. I'm starting to think the Cardinals are for real. They struck me as sort of a soft team, with the Air Raid offense and an unpredictable defense faltering down the stretch last season. But the defense is playing inspired football, and Kyler Murray looks in complete command. Defenses will try to adjust to him, so late-season games should be tougher, but he looks up to the challenge. And he has talented teammates everywhere.

Graziano: Absolutely love Murray and what this offense is capable of if he can stay healthy. Love the diversity of his receiver group, with DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore. I do think there are still legitimate questions about whether they can hold up over the course of the season and whether Kliff Kingsbury is the guy to manage them through a playoff race, but I'm with you that they've been more impressive earlier than I expected them to be.

Fowler: I also thought Tennessee would take a step back due to defensive depth issues, but the Titans are showing major toughness with back-to-back close wins against Seattle and Indianapolis. I've changed my tone.

Which team is facing the most impactful/detrimental injury right now?

Fowler: The Panthers with running back Christian McCaffrey. Their offense looks so explosive with him in the lineup. They are good without him but have a chance to be great when he's in the backfield. He just can't stay on the field for second-year coach Matt Rhule, missing 13 games last season with ankle/shoulder issues and now at least a couple of games with a hamstring injury. Luckily this isn't a long-term deal, but it's tough to count on his durability right now.

Graziano: Yeah, you hate to see it a second year in a row with McCaffrey. There aren't many players who mean as much to their team as he does. Tough challenge for offensive coordinator Joe Brady & Co. to figure out how to keep things rolling without him.

I'm going to go a little off the board here and say the Jets with left tackle Mekhi Becton. Not that I expected the Jets to be competitive, but they are trying to break in a rookie quarterback, and Becton was expected to be a big part of his protection. Losing his starting left tackle in Week 1 isn't the only reason for Zach Wilson's struggles, but it's a high-level problem the organization is going to keep struggling to solve.

Fowler: Becton is an interesting one, because the Jets' zone-blocking scheme was an adjustment for him in the preseason, and I figured George Fant and Morgan Moses could hold down the tackle spots without him. But the protection for Wilson has the No. 2 overall pick constantly under siege. At least Becton's high-level traits could have moved a few pass-rushers out of the way.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 4?

Graziano: Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (vs. KC). The Chiefs have allowed 160.3 rushing yards per game. Only the Chargers have allowed more. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. Eagles running backs amassed a grand total of three carries in Monday night's loss to the Cowboys, which means Nick Sirianni & Co. will be hearing (and likely talking) all week about how they need to try and run the ball more. Teams tend to go run heavy against the Chiefs, who have yet to show they can really stop it. I wouldn't expect Sirianni to all of a sudden turn run heavy, but I expect Sanders to be more involved. If he hits a big play or two, it could pay off for fantasy managers.

Fowler: You took my pick. Sanders is a good one, a true sleeping giant who doesn't get the usage he should.

I'll go with Dalton Schultz, TE, Cowboys (vs. CAR). He might be an obvious one coming off a two-touchdown performance, but I doubt he was a fixture in most fantasy leagues before then, and he probably should be. Dallas coaches believe he's improving rapidly dating back to last season -- he had 63 catches, mostly while Dak Prescott was out injured -- and he and Prescott have developed chemistry. Schultz won't be a focal point every week due to Dallas' crowded group of playmakers, but more big weeks are to come.

Graziano: I like the idea of getting a piece of that Dallas offense, and Schultz is a player who might be available to fantasy managers in a lot of leagues. But as I said earlier, I am leery of that Carolina defense and the possibility that the Cowboys have a come-down game after thumping the Eagles.

Fowler: Speaking of Carolina, either of its top receivers, Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, are safe plays this week. Carolina will be player two rookies, Chuba Hubbard and Tommy Tremble, at the tailback and tight end spots. Sam Darnold will key on the veterans.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop for Week 4?

Fowler: Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens (at DEN). The Broncos' defense will be Baltimore's toughest test so far, and they can match up rookie Pat Surtain II -- who has been impressive thus far -- on tight ends, depending on the game plan. Andrews is due for his first touchdown of the season and will get it eventually. But Denver's third-ranked passing defense will be a tough challenge.

Graziano: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys (vs. CAR). The Panthers have allowed just 45 rushing yards per game. Alvin Kamara ran for 5 yards on eight carries against them in Week 2, and he added only 25 receiving yards on four catches. Everybody knows the Brian Burns-led Panthers front can get after quarterbacks, but they're stifling running backs so far this year, too. Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore surely knows this (or is in the process of finding it out as the week unfolds), so I'd expect a Dallas game plan similar to what we saw against the Buccaneers in Week 1, at best.

Fowler: I believe that's two weeks you've labeled Elliot a flop. Elliott is putting this pick in his cereal as part of his "Feed me" gesture after every big gain in Week 4!

Graziano: The other was Week 1, and I stand by it! I think the main reason he flopped then was because the Cowboys decided not to even try to run the ball against the Bucs, because it wouldn't be worth it. I don't know for sure that they'll game plan the same way against a Panthers D that has been so tough against the run, but I wouldn't be surprised, is all I'm saying. I'm an Elliot believer in general, just not in love with his schedule from a fantasy standpoint this year.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• The expectation is that veteran cornerback Richard Sherman will sign with the Buccaneers in short order. Tampa is looking to get him on the active roster sooner rather than later, and he could end up getting real money due to Tampa's injuries in the secondary. The scheduled workout for Tuesday is a bit of a formality, I'm told. (Update: Sherman announced his signing on Wednesday morning.)

• The Bucs can give Tom Brady all the scouting reports he could want for the opposing team, but he might not need much help this week. Not only does he know the Patriots' system intimately, he still keeps in touch with several Patriots players (though they probably aren't offering up intel right about now).

• The Steelers, reeling at 1-2, are hoping for reinforcements on defense. Pass-rushers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are expected to resume practice with hopes of returning to the lineup. Both are battling groin injuries.

Graziano

• What the Bears do at quarterback from here will be fascinating. My understanding, based on conversations I've had in recent weeks, is that all along they had planned to start using rookie Justin Fields in a more significant role this week -- as in, Week 4 against the Lions. Their plan for Fields involved using him in some packages in the first three weeks, kind of the way Kyle Shanahan has been using Trey Lance, but overall shielding him from tough road matchups with the Rams and Browns. Andy Dalton's injury forced them to accelerate the plan, and Fields' performance against Cleveland is one the coaching staff must evaluate as it gauges his readiness for more responsibility and/or the starter's role moving forward. The Bears' coaching staff would dispute the notion that it "didn't tailor the game plan to Fields' strengths" and assign wider blame for the Cleveland loss. Fields took sacks on max-protection plays, on naked rollouts, on play-action -- pretty much in every kind of package they tried. That points to a larger failure of the offense as a whole, and it's possible the Bears have more to fix overall before they can just turn the operation over to a rookie. It's not as if any of the other rookie QBs have played lights out so far, either.

• Sunday was a rough day for the Washington Football Team, but the coaches there believe Taylor Heinicke has shown promise in his two starts since Ryan Fitzpatrick got hurt. I talked to Heinicke last week and asked him specifically how Fitzpatrick has been helping him get ready for his starts. He told me, as an example, that Fitzpatrick came to him before the Giants game and, based on his experience against New England (where Giants coach Joe Judge and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham used to work), that Heinicke should expect the Giants to take away the deep ball early and force him into checkdowns. The point was not to be afraid to take the checkdown early because that's what was likely to be available. "I was more conscious [of it]," Heinicke said. "You have some shot plays, and we'd like to take some shots, but if it's not there we knew we had some good checkdowns, and that was a high alert in my mind throughout the game."

• On the flip side Sunday, the Bills looked a lot more like their old selves on offense in drubbing Washington. They believe they took some lessons from their Week 1 loss to the Steelers, who surprised them by not blitzing very much and being able to generate pressure with just four guys. Remember that running back Zack Moss was inactive for the Week 1 game, and Buffalo went pass heavy. Part of the reason for that decision was that the Bills really like Matt Breida on special teams, so he got the uniform that day and Moss didn't. But they reassessed after they couldn't keep the Steelers' pass rush off Josh Allen, and Moss has been very active the past two games, scoring three touchdowns. Sunday, he looked like the back Buffalo preferred over Devin Singletary, and while that could still fluctuate week to week (sorry, fantasy managers), the Bills are at least acknowledging that they need to at least pretend they're willing to run the ball in order to keep defenses honest.

• All of the commotion over the Bengals choosing wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase instead of offensive tackle Penei Sewell with the No. 5 overall pick in April's draft ignores the fact that the Bengals drafted three other offensive linemen in later rounds. That includes second-round guard Jackson Carman, who had been a disappointment in training camp and wasn't a starter to open the season. Carman was pressed into action Sunday, and the Bengals were happy with the way he performed. Expect him to get another start Thursday against the Jaguars. Chase has caught a touchdown in each of the Bengals' first three games and looks like he could be a budding superstar. If Carman can be a competent guard and 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams can be the franchise left tackle, the decision to take the receiver instead of the lineman in 2021 could end up looking quite good.

• The Browns were pleased with what they got from Odell Beckham Jr. in his 2021 debut Sunday after nearly a year off due to injury, and they have big plans for him in their offense. Cleveland coaches believe Beckham and rookie Anthony Schwartz give them the potential for a downfield threat that wasn't present even once the offense got going in the second half of last season. If you drafted Beckham in fantasy, take Sunday as an encouraging sign and hold on, because in Cleveland they truly believe he's capable of looking like his old self at some point soon.