Predicting NFL Week 1 upset picks, fantasy football sleepers and flops, plus what we're hearing around the league

We've waited seven long months, but Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season is finally here. It all kicks off with an exciting Thursday night opener between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but 16 games are on tap this week. We will get our first sense of how the season might play out and which teams look ready for big years, so we asked ESPN insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for some insight into the first week's slate.

What are the best upset picks out of the gate, and why might a pair of Super Bowl contenders get off to a rough start? Who are the must-start sleepers in fantasy, and who might be a Week 1 big-name flop? What can we actually learn from just one week of games, and what should we be watching for? What will happen over the course of the year? Graziano and Fowler get into all of it, and they cap it off with everything else they've heard this week, from trade chatter to injury statuses.

Let's get started with our top upset alerts, but you can also jump to other big questions for Week 1.

Jump to:
Upsets | Season predictions
Fantasy starts | Fantasy flops
What to watch for | Emptying the notebook

What's your top upset pick for Week 1?

Graziano: Browns (+6.0) over the Chiefs. The Chiefs have been stinging all offseason from the Super Bowl LV loss to the Bucs, but don't forget that the Browns have been stinging all offseason from their divisional-round loss to Kansas City. Cleveland thinks it should have won that game, especially once Patrick Mahomes left with a concussion in the third quarter. So, the improved Browns defense against a Kansas City offensive line that might need a few weeks to jell spells Week 1 Upset City to me.

Fowler: Man, Browns-Chiefs will be tremendous viewing. I can't wait to see the revamped Browns defense. I'm just not sure many defenses can slow Kansas City in a packed Arrowhead Stadium with a revamped offensive line and the edge of last year's ugly finish fueling Mahomes. The Browns might need 30 points to stay in this one.

As for me, I'll go Raiders (+4.5) over the Ravens. Las Vegas went 2-6 at home last season and will be eager to rebound now that fans will occupy Allegiant Stadium for the first time. Many people are predicting the Raiders to finish last in the AFC West. Here is a chance to prove they are indeed not a hot mess -- especially against a Baltimore team already battered by injuries.

Graziano: Love it! Spicy upset on Monday Night Football on ESPN and in the ESPN App -- one app, one tap. I definitely have some concerns about the Ravens starting slowly after the lousy camp they had with injuries. Ironically, the concerns about the Raiders are about them finishing slow, since that has been a habit during Gruden II, including losing five of seven games at the end of 2020.

You get to stake your claim to one prediction for the season. What are you going with?

Fowler: Josh Allen will win MVP. Matthew Stafford is the trendy pick, Mahomes is the safe one and Aaron Rodgers is always looming. Allen is poised to make a serious run at MVP, though. The Bills will be in contention, they are loaded with offensive weapons and coaches are secretly very pleased with Allen's improvements on the mental aspect of his game. And so much of Buffalo's attack runs through him, run or pass. He will put up big numbers.

Graziano: The Washington Football Team will not win the NFC East. Look, this is nothing against Ron Rivera or Ryan Fitzpatrick -- both are fine gentlemen. It would be an awesome story for Fitzpatrick to make the playoffs this late in his career. But the fact is, in 16 NFL seasons, he has never played on a playoff team. In 10 years as an NFL head coach, Rivera has had a total of three winning seasons. Add in the facts that Washington won only seven games last season and no one has repeated as the NFC East champion since 2003-04, and it feels like we are asking a lot of a team whose key leaders just haven't done a lot of winning.

Fowler: Chase Young will be invading your nightmares now, Dan. When making predictions, we can go by feel and we can go by what we know -- and we know that Dallas has the best offense in the division. If the defense is at least passable and Dak Prescott's body holds up, the Cowboys can outscore teams on their way to a 9-8 finish and a divisional crown.

Graziano: Yeah, I think I'll take the Cowboys, too. Though they're like the Chargers for me a little bit -- whenever I think they're going to be good, they aren't. Thing about the NFC East is, the Eagles were 4-12 last season and only three games out of first! Is it really impossible to imagine Jalen Hurts playing better than we expect and Philly getting back on top? Or the Giants' offensive line playing better than we expect and Daniel Jones delivering a division title? Put 'em all in a hat and pick one!

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 1?

Graziano: Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Jaguars (at Houston). First off, the Texans' defense is going to be a target for fantasy points all year. But while Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars get their feet under them and figure out how best to protect a rookie quarterback behind a suspect offensive line, Shenault is the safety valve and should catch a ton of passes.

Fowler: Shenault is interesting because he can do a little bit of everything -- which will be friendly for Lawrence -- but I'm curious whether DJ Chark Jr. develops a rapport with Lawrence and takes away targets. Chark is in a contract year and needs the early-season boost. Maybe there is room for both to eat.

My pick? Jamaal Williams, RB, Lions (vs. SF). I'm expecting Detroit to ease back D'Andre Swift into action coming off his groin issue, so Williams should get a healthy run. Despite San Francisco's stout rushing defense, the Lions will be dedicated to the ground game. They have no choice when you look at that receiving corps, right?

Graziano: That is correct. And if the Lions are assessing their roster correctly, the offensive line should be one of their strengths. I've talked to new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn several times in the past about his use of running backs, and he is always adamant that he wants to use more than one. He believes the ideal RB situation was the one the Carolina Panthers had once upon a time with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Williams and Swift should both get plenty of work.

Fowler: For sure. Not much love for Detroit, and though I'm not expecting playoffs, the Lions will be competitive. Not many blue-chip defensive players, though.

What is one thing we will definitely learn from the Week 1 slate?

Fowler: That the Chargers are indeed for real. There is too much talent to mess this up, and that will show in the season opener against Washington. Justin Herbert has five legitimate receivers, three capable tight ends and a robust stable of running backs at his disposal. The offensive line is better. Derwin James Jr. is back. It seems every year we say the Chargers are back and it usually doesn't happen. This feels different.

Graziano: Yes, the Chargers remind me of the old Charlie Brown gag in which he tried to kick the football and Lucy always yanked it away at the last second. One of these years, it has to work, right? James is such a key -- if he can finally stay healthy. He would solidify that defense in many important ways.

Fowler: What's funny about that analogy is the Chargers actually had three kickers in training camp. Now, they have Tristan Vizcaino, who has kicked only three career regular-season field goals.

In Chicago, my money is on Andy Dalton getting a longer runway than most expect -- maybe half the season. They want Justin Fields to develop in time. What's your sense here?

Graziano: We will have some idea after the Week 1 "Sunday Night Football" game how soon to expect Fields to take over as the Bears quarterback. If their offense looks competent, and the line can protect Dalton even a little, then maybe that gives Matt Nagy some cover to play Dalton and keep the rookie on the sideline. If the Bears' offense is a disaster on the level it seemed to be every time they were on during prime time last year, it'll be harder to hold off the inevitable Fields takeover.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop for Week 1?

Graziano: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys (vs. Bucs). Tampa Bay allowed a league-low 80.6 rushing yards per game last season, and I'm not sure if you've heard, but the Bucs are returning all of their starters on both sides of the ball. Add in that the Cowboys are playing without guard Zack Martin, and you have trouble. I'm buying the Zeke rebound talk -- I just think the rebound starts in Week 2 at the Chargers.

Fowler: The thing about Elliott is the Cowboys want to establish him as a 20-carry-per-game guy again. The offense needs to help the defense, and Dak Prescott might need a few weeks to regain his form. So if Tampa Bay shuts him down early, Thursday night will be ugly. Dallas' offensive line is still good without Martin, but this team can't get behind early. (Update: Elliott rushed for just 33 yards on 11 carries in the Cowboys' loss.)

I'll go with Mike Davis, RB, Falcons (vs. Eagles). Davis will do fine as the feature back in Arthur Smith's system, but I saw Philly's defensive line up close in a joint practice against the Jets and it looked impressive. I get the sense the Eagles realized through this mini-rebuild that they might actually be pretty good, and that always starts with the lines in Philly. Atlanta will rely more on Matt Ryan's arm in this one.

Graziano: That's an interesting thing to me. I think people assume a Smith-led offense would lean on the run because he did in Tennessee. But he had Derrick Henry in Tennessee. Smith is smart enough to coach the talent he has, and in Atlanta that is going to mean leaning on Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts and the passing game. If they think they can throw it on the Eagles, I don't think they're just going to hand it to Davis over and over because they want to "establish the run."

And I'm with you on the Eagles. They added some key veterans on defense, which tells me they think that side of the ball can be pretty good while the young offense jells.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano: If you drafted Giants running back Saquon Barkley in fantasy and are wondering whether to start him Week 1, my advice is to pay attention to the news coming out of Giants' practice the next couple of days. Everything they've been saying privately (to me, at least) lines up with what they've said publicly. As of Tuesday, word was Barkley was on track to play Sunday but still needed to get through this practice week and check a couple of more boxes before being cleared by the doctors to play coming off his ACL repair.

I asked some of my sources if the Giants' Thursday night game in Week 2 would affect the decision on if and how much Barkley would play in Week 1. While that is definitely something they've considered, my sense is that if the doctors tell the coaches he is OK to play, then they are going to play him. How much, exactly, remains a mystery. But my expert fantasy advice would be: If you drafted Barkley and he is active for Sunday's game, I think you have to start him and hope he breaks a long one.

Fowler: The trade market has cooled, but teams are watching Denver. Several teams have called the Broncos about cornerback depth, and they are at least open to those discussions, though they won't force the issue. With four good corners in Pat Surtain II, Kyle Fuller, Bryce Callahan and Ronald Darby, this franchise knows it can wear out opposing passing games. Other teams that have called believe Fuller and Callahan would be the movable pieces potentially. (Surtain, a rookie top-10 pick, is untouchable.) It would take quality picks to make it happen, though. These aren't late-round throw-ins.

Graziano: I still wouldn't be shocked if the Cowboys ended up having to cut linebacker Jaylon Smith. He has $7.2 million in guaranteed salary coming this year, and he is a Jerry Jones favorite. But they have too many linebackers right now, and Smith's $9.2 million 2022 salary is guaranteed against injury. If he gets on the field in Week 1 and gets hurt, they will end up having to pay him that money next year. Not a good situation. Watch to see whether he is a surprise inactive Thursday night, and that might give a clue as to how concerned they are about that situation. (Update: Smith played 15 defensive snaps against Tampa Bay.)

Fowler: The Colts have been pleased with Carson Wentz's mobility coming off foot surgery. I'm told the team feels that he is looking good and hasn't experienced post-practice setbacks. As long as he gets through a slate of Week 1 practices, he remains well positioned to start against Seattle.

Graziano: Yeah, that's my game this week for Sunday NFL Countdown -- Seahawks at Colts. I'm hearing similar stuff on Wentz, but I'm curious how he's going to play coming off a lousy season and a health-shortened training camp.

Meanwhile, the Colts are one of the teams, along with the Vikings and a couple of others, that the league and the NFL Players Association are watching closely because of how many high-profile players are admittedly unvaccinated. The disparity between vaccination rates of various teams could tell a lot more of the story of the 2021 season than I think people realize. The Colts could find out, for example, on a Sunday morning that they don't have Wentz or Darius Leonard or Quenton Nelson for that day's game. And yes, same goes for vaccinated players who test positive, but (A) they're far less likely to do so and (B) they aren't being tested as often.