Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season is here, and Sundays will be flooded with first downs from now until mid-February. Rosters are built and trades are submitted, so now the real work begins. No more vanilla preseason games. It's all about matchups.
The players who win those matchups most often will have the inside track at individual awards, postseason recognition and, of course, fantasy heroism. We know the basics when it comes to award season: A quarterback will probably win Most Valuable Player, Aaron Donald will be in the mix for Defensive Player of the Year and a few rookies outside of the first round will emerge as stars.
But there is plenty more still to be determined. Matthew Stafford has generated more buzz in his first offseason with the Rams than, perhaps, his 12 combined campaigns with the Lions. The Chargers' Justin Herbert looks ready to explode. Patrick Mahomes might be even better behind an improved offensive line. Lamar Jackson's ceiling remains a hot debate. Tom Brady plays for the most talented team in football right now. And reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers embarks on a last dance of sorts -- and another spite season, which means big numbers.
Beyond the QBs, at least seven running backs are threats to post 2,000 total yards. Last season, nine different receivers posted 1,200-plus yards, a number that might grow this year because of the influx of talent at the position.
We talked to a handful of executives, scouts and coaches around the league to get predictions on players and coaches who will dominate this year, and we were able to come up with a consensus pick for each category. As usual, there are plenty of surprises, as league favorites often vary from media favorites -- starting with a pick that western New York will love.
Jump to:
MVP | OPOY | DPOY | OROY | DROY
Comebacks | Surprises | Breakouts
Top coach | Most polarizing
MVP: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Allen joined the top-five quarterback discussion after maximizing his enormous potential in 2020. The once-erratic signal-caller completed nearly 70% of his passes for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions -- and he added another eight scores on the ground. Evaluators now predict another jump in Year 4 with the Bills.
"He's locked in, they have a great offense around him, they should be in contention and he'll throw the ball a ton," an NFC exec said.
Allen dominates the ball like Luka Doncic does in the NBA. His combined 674 total passing and rushing attempts were second in the NFL behind Kyler Murray (691). Allen is either scoring a bucket or recording an assist on most of Buffalo's downs. Plus, the Bills' receiver depth is top five in the league, and the offensive line is steady.
The word out of Buffalo is Allen has shown even more growth with pre-snap protections and decision-making. The Chiefs had Allen flustered in the AFC Championship Game, and some evaluators want to see more from him.
"One thing I wonder is how some of these young quarterbacks who succeeded last year in empty stadiums will handle full stadiums," an AFC exec said. "Some guys rise in that atmosphere and it brings out the best ... others struggle."
Allen is currently tied with Tom Brady for third in odds to win MVP at Caesars Sportsbook at 12-1 (behind Patrick Mahomes at 5-1 and Aaron Rodgers at 10-1).
Also creating buzz: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Matthew Stafford (Rams)
Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
McCaffrey was in his own tier in 2019, as he piled up nearly 2,400 total yards and 19 touchdowns on 403 touches. Coming off an injury-filled 2020, McCaffrey might just hit 400 touches again in 2021.
"The Panthers want to support Sam [Darnold] so he doesn't have to carry the offense, and McCaffrey will be the perfect player for that system," an NFC personnel man said. "They'll have him in the slot all day on top of all his carries."
Early buzz out of camp is McCaffrey has been a revelation for the offense. The Panthers' coaching staff knew what they had last year but simply couldn't get him on the field due to shoulder and ankle issues. Now, McCaffrey is in peak physical condition and ready to reclaim his spot among the best playmakers in football.
Also creating buzz: Davante Adams (Packers), Stefon Diggs (Bills), Darren Waller (Raiders)
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald could probably win this every year, so we present him with an honorary award and look for a legitimate No. 2 for argument's sake.
Watt is primed for this award. Since 2018, he has averaged 14.2 sacks, 5.3 forced fumbles, 6.0 passes defended and 32.7 quarterback hits per season. That's the consistency that gets rewarded eventually, and he pushed Donald in this category in 2020.
"He's figured things out where he knows how to affect each game plan, so I don't see him having a down year," an AFC exec said.
The chief concern is Watt's readiness. Watt skipped team workouts in search of a contract extension and enters Week 1 without a new deal. He keeps himself in tremendous shape and has been eager to return to the lineup, but the Steelers believe you must practice in order to play on Sundays. His availability for the first game is officially in question. Even so, Caesars Sportsbook has Watt at +750 to win the award. Donald (+450) and Cleveland's Myles Garrett (+550) are Nos. 1 and 2.
As for other names, there's a complete wild card who got more traction than I thought he might: Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller, who hasn't seen peak form since 2018. Rarely do teams pick up $18 million options on 32-year-old players, but the Broncos did so with Miller because he's still so unique and disruptive.
"I saw him moving around in the preseason and said, 'He's the same guy,'" an NFC exec said of Miller. "He's still got his explosiveness. And he's got a really good secondary, which should buy him more time to rush the passer."
Also creating buzz: Von Miller (Broncos), Myles Garrett (Browns), Jalen Ramsey (Rams)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots or Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Many evaluators agree that Jones has the best supporting cast among the three rookie starting quarterbacks. Lawrence and Zach Wilson (New York Jets) -- April's top two picks, respectively -- can make more splash plays, but their offenses might still be a year away.
"But [the Jaguars] aren't void of talent: [Lawrence] has something to work with there," an AFC scout said. "That line can be pretty good, they have DJ Chark Jr., [Laviska] Shenault Jr., a good backfield. I think Lawrence puts up numbers."
Jones will have the bigger spotlight in New England, which features a restocked group of playmakers and several talented running backs. So the question becomes: How much can the No. 15 pick stretch the field vertically?
"I think New England will be balanced. Eventually, teams will stack the box and force Mac to beat them," an NFC exec said. "I think he does."
Lawrence (+350) and Jones (+450) are also the favorites at Caesars Sportsbook.
Also creating buzz: Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins), Najee Harris (Steelers)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, ILB, Dallas Cowboys
Parsons -- a 6-1 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to win this award -- has the chance to rack up serious numbers in Dan Quinn's defense as a do-it-all specialist. The Cowboys plan to use him in coverage and off the edge.
"He was the best defensive player in the draft, and he fell to Dallas," an AFC exec said about the No. 11 pick who was considered a top-10 prospect for most of the draft process. "I think some teams overthought it. Not sure if it was a personality with some teams [in the top 10]. But he's too good of an athlete not to have an immediate impact."
As a separate AFC exec clarified: "A massive impact."
Elsewhere, the rich get richer in Tampa, where edge rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka's explosive preseason garnered buzz in league circles. He wasn't a marquee name entering the draft but was quietly the best pass-rusher available in the minds of some evaluators. The Steelers, for example, would have strongly considered selecting him at No. 24 if they didn't take running back Najee Harris. And Tampa Bay's equal-opportunity pass rush -- with no double-digit sack guys but three players who tallied 8 to 9.5 sacks last season -- could create plenty of open lanes for Tryon-Shoyinka.
"He will make an immediate impact," an NFC exec said. "Toughness and technique."
Evaluators also are raving about Broncos corner Pat Surtain II, citing his technique, smoothness and poise. He never looks rushed or stressed. But eight of the past 10 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year winners were in the front seven, so unless Surtain racks up interceptions quickly, this award will be tough for him to snag.
Also creating buzz: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Buccaneers), Pat Surtain II (Broncos), Jaycee Horn (Panthers), Kwity Paye (Colts)
Comeback Player of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
New York has been cautious with Barkley's return off a torn ACL in his right knee, but I'm hearing the player has been raring to go and that the Giants are encouraged enough to play him sooner rather than later. In fact, he's on track to play Week 1.
It's easy to say the Giants should have selected a quarterback with the second pick in the 2018 draft. Barkley's 17 games missed due to injury only fuel that argument. But many evaluators still look at Barkley as the best pure talent at the running back position, and in his first two seasons, he averaged a stellar 119.6 total scrimmage yards per game despite being slowed by an ankle issue in 2019.
"Assuming he's healthy, he's got a chance to have a big year and put himself back in the conversation of the best backs," an NFC exec said. "The attention he gets from defenses makes him elite. And if they have enough weapons around him to give them some balance, his natural ability can take over."
Now about that offensive line in New York ...
Also creating buzz: Courtland Sutton (Broncos)
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
If the 49ers' roster remains well-stocked through Christmas, Shanahan is positioned for his second season of double-digit wins. And how he gets there could sway voters for this award: a potential two-quarterback system that has the whole league's attention.
"Oh, he's going to do it," a veteran NFL coach said. "You can already see it. Jimmy [Garoppolo] will be in the base, and [Trey] Lance will get packages where you can run different play-actions off it. I can't wait to see it. They have the right coach to handle it. He wants that challenge."
Shanahan hasn't revealed his quarterback plans, but it's widely assumed Garoppolo will begin Week 1 as the starter. The coach has made clear Lance will play, though, and New Orleans reminded us that good playcallers can find a way to use multiple passers. Sean Payton weaved Taysom Hill into a Drew Brees game plan in years past.
Shanahan and Garoppolo are 24-8 together, so there's reason to believe the winning will continue as Garoppolo returns from injury.
Also creating buzz: Bill Belichick (Patriots)
Biggest breakout: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
While Minnesota Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor and others broke out as rookies, Jeudy struggled with drops (12) and a catch percentage (47.3%) that put him last among rookies with at least 40 targets, per Pro Football Focus. He finished with a respectable 52 receptions for 856 yards, but those who watched him know he's capable of much more.
"He's a good route runner, and I think he will fix those issues that affected him," a veteran AFC coach said. "It looked like the drops were concentration issues where he tried to look downfield before securing the ball. If he cleans that up, he can let his natural ability take over."
Denver's receiver room is among the league's most crowded, with Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler, plus tight end Noah Fant. But Denver sees Jeudy as a 1,000-yard receiver even with the internal competition. The question in Denver is simple: Can Teddy Bridgewater get everyone the ball?
Also creating buzz: Miles Sanders (Eagles), Henry Ruggs III (Raiders), Laviska Shenault Jr. (Jaguars)
Biggest surprises: No consensus
Here are some players whom execs and scouts pointed to as potential big surprises.
Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals: "You could already see in the preseason they are trying creative ways to get him the ball. He's dynamic. I think he's heavily involved in what they do." -- AFC exec
Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints: "If he cuts down on the turnovers, he can be dangerous in that offense with the Sean Payton touch. I think Sean likes the challenge of starting over at quarterback." -- NFC exec
Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders: "[The Raiders] are expecting him to be one of the best slots in the game." -- AFC exec
Jeffery Simmons, DT, Tennessee Titans: "The numbers aren't there, but he gets schemed against more than just about any interior guy. Now that he's fully healthy and should have more help, Tennessee should be expecting big things from him." -- NFC scout
Montez Sweat, DE, Washington Football Team: "He might not be a top-10 pass-rusher now, but he will be by year's end." -- NFC scout
Most polarizing star: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
I recently mentioned on ESPN's Get Up! that some execs around the league believe this might be the year that teams figure out Jackson. Analyst Ryan Clark looked at me sideways, then smartly wondered what there is to figure out about 4.3-second 40-yard dash speed. It's a good point, but I was simply pointing out that his skeptics around the NFL haven't left -- and more are joining the fray, pointing to the Ravens' version of a high school offense that finished last in passing last year.
"I just don't know if he can get it done when the game shrinks in the playoffs and you have to come from behind with the passing game," an NFC exec said. "He's an immense talent, but I have doubts about the accuracy in those settings."
Jackson is 1-3 in the postseason, where he has completed just 55.5% of his passes and thrown three touchdowns to five interceptions. He averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and took 19 sacks in those four games.
As an AFC exec added, "I don't know if he'll ever have that surgical accuracy, and that's necessary now."
To be sure, it's easy to claim Jackson is "figured out" until he is bursting through your defense's gap assignment. Supporters say Jackson's toughness and explosiveness will keep him a fixture in the top 10 QBs conversation and possibly help him to another MVP run. They'll also suggest Baltimore needs to do more to help him evolve. Perhaps Jackson's MVP season in Year 2 created lofty expectations that are nearly impossible to meet every year.
"He throws the ball better than people think, the ultimate competitor," an NFC exec said. "That offense is easy to figure out with a good defense. They only have so many options. ... Crowd the box and give him a hard time and make him beat you throwing."
A separate NFC exec believes Jackson's running ability will always force defenses to play man coverage and that if he can win those one-on-one matchups, "He'll have another big year."
"People think he was always run-first, but he was more pro-ready than people thought coming from Bobby Petrino's offense [at Louisville]," the exec added.