Week 1 of the 2021 season was a throwback to an NFL truism: Rookie quarterbacks are supposed to struggle.
Enough gifted passers have blazed defenses early in their careers that the reality is easy to forget. But as the NFL featured three rookie quarterbacks -- the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence, the Jets' Zach Wilson and the Patriots' Mac Jones -- starting in Week 1 for just the second time since 1970, the result was a mostly up-and-down 0-for-3 performance.
For context, that trio just lost more games in one day than they did in their entire 2020 collegiate seasons combined (two). And to think Lawrence and Jones combined for just three losses in 53 career collegiate starts.
NFL defenses close passing windows quickly and fluster inexperienced quarterbacks with creative blitzes and confusing post-snap movement. These three rookie starters felt that heat all day Sunday, and the only first-round quarterback from 2021 who won a game, Trey Lance, threw exactly one pass for the 49ers in a 41-33 victory against the Lions.
Jones was the only rookie starter to play in a close game, with the Patriots failing to stop the Dolphins' offense in the final minutes of a 17-16 defeat. Wilson and the Jets looked more inspired in the second half but never made a 19-14 loss to Carolina truly compelling. And Houston's defense jumped all over Lawrence and the Jaguars' offense in a 37-21 Texans win.
One game is hardly a baseline for career-arc projections. But it does leave clues for the challenges these players will face and areas that need improvement in a hurry. We spoke to NFL execs and personnel evaluators around the league to make sense of the rookie QB debuts and what they mean going forward -- and handed out final grades for all three starts. Plus, execs helped us predict when Lance and Chicago's Justin Fields might win their respective starting jobs.
Jump to:
Lawrence | Wilson | Jones
When will Lance and Fields start?
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 1 stats: 28-of-51 passing for 332 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs
Week 1 QBR: 14.2 (No. 28 in the NFL)
Let's start with the good: Lawrence's first two touchdown passes reminded us that everything will be OK in Jacksonville, eventually. Evaluators noticed Lawrence's beautiful TD strikes to tight end Chris Manhertz and wide receiver DJ Chark Jr. were big league throws that only gifted passers such as Lawrence can make -- especially the 41-yarder to Chark, in which Lawrence cut it loose off play-action with a bullet between two defenders. In all, Lawrence was 6-of-9 on play-action, and his 11.1 yards per attempt on such plays ranked fifth among all NFL signal-callers.
"That was impressive," an AFC exec said. "He had a rough day, but at least you know he's got that extra gear."
The rest was pretty messy, leaving questions about Jacksonville's offensive identity under coach Urban Meyer. The Texans dropped back into coverage and watched the Jaguars squirm. Lawrence was blitzed four times on 52 dropbacks, a rate of 7.7%, the third lowest total since 2006, per ESPN Stats & Information research. Jacksonville didn't use the running game to keep the Texans honest, either, finishing with 78 yards on 16 carries. It was playing from behind, to be sure, but that's hardly a balanced recipe for a young quarterback.
"[At Clemson] he had the read-option, a lot of plays where his man wins one-on-one and you can play I'm-better-than-you football, but the NFL is different," an AFC exec said. "He has to win in the pocket and anticipate. He can do that over time, but I thought Jacksonville would try to help him with some Clemson-type concepts. It was a lot of straight dropback stuff with a little play-action. It will be interesting to see how the offense adapts to him."
Couple that with mediocre offensive line play -- the Jags recorded the league's 10th-ranked pass block win rate at 58.3% and 23rd-ranked run block win rate at 65.9% -- and Jacksonville's rookie recipe for Lawrence needs more flavor.
"The interceptions were pretty careless," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "He made some poor throws or threw into coverage. He'll have to learn from that. But he's got the right demeanor to take accountability and handle this the right way. He will make sure that offense improves."
My grade: C. Lawrence pressed and missed several throws but also had little help, and the big-play ability was on display. He will improve and eventually lift the Jacksonville offense.
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Week 1 stats: 20-of-37 passing for 258 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT
Week 1 QBR: 28.8 (No. 22)
Wilson's first half couldn't have gone worse. He was 0-for-4 on third down, 0-for-4 against the blitz, 0-for-7 under duress, 0-for-4 on play-action and 0-for-3 on deep passes. His QBR going into the locker room at halftime was 5.9.
But Wilson rebounded to finish with 258 passing yards and two scores, along with one interception. But he wasn't accurate enough overall (54.1%), and his six sacks highlight the speed of the NFL game to which he must adjust. The Panthers -- and other onlookers -- still came away impressed. One NFL evaluator said he is "absolutely sold" on Wilson coming off this game.
"He's extremely confident. Even with the rocky start, he didn't lose confidence," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "He broke the pocket and threw the ball deep the first four times; instead of looking for routes coming back to him, he's looking to go deep. He's buying time and escaping to make a big play. He got hit, and he didn't blink."
First career TD pass for @ZachWilson 🙌
— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 12, 2021
📺 #NYJvsCAR on CBS pic.twitter.com/KzZVJm2iHt
Evaluators noted Wilson was without wide receiver Jamison Crowder and left tackle Mekhi Becton, who exited the game early with a right knee injury. The Jets' offense allowed 14 quarterback pressures and produced a league-low 2.6 yards per rush.
"He has to understand teams are going to pressure him, especially with Becton out, so the ball has to be out," an NFC exec said. "He's a naturally aggressive thrower, which will get him in trouble but will also create opportunities downfield. He can throw with timing and rhythm, but he's seeing speed and [defensive] rotations he wasn't seeing in the preseason. At least his ability to throw off-platform will help him in a bad offense."
My grade: C+. Wilson shrugged off a disastrous first half to average nearly 7 yards per pass attempt. He must be more efficient and avoid sacks, though.
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Week 1 stats: 29-of-39 passing for 281 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT
Week 1 QBR: 75.1 (No. 8)
Jones, the first rookie quarterback to start a Patriots opener since Drew Bledsoe in 1993, had the most encouraging day of the trio, despite being the last of the five first-round QBs picked in April at No. 15 overall. His 133 passing yards in the first half would have been a season high for the Patriots in a first half in 2020.
Jones was 6-of-8 off play-action, according to ESPN Stats & Info data, including his first career touchdown -- a 7-yard strike to wide receiver Nelson Agholor in the second quarter. He was also 9-of-13 with a touchdown when under duress from Miami's defensive pressure. Only the Texans saw more blitzes than the Patriots on Sunday (45%).
"I saw a quarterback that was instinctive, good awareness. Probably needs to speed up his play a little bit, but that will happen for him," an NFC exec said. "He sees it very quickly for a young player."
THE FIRST TD.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 12, 2021
📺: @NFLonCBS / Patriots app pic.twitter.com/wTAmCLpcoY
As an NFL personnel man added, "He won the [Patriots] job [over Cam Newton] because he makes the right reads, and I thought that showed."
Most agree the difference between Jones and, say, Lawrence is simple: Jones doesn't have the same high-level traits, and if he stretches the field vertically, he at least needs some help from the Patriots' offensive system to do so. In other words, he can push the ball downfield by winning a favorable one-on-one matchup instead of an off-script heave off one foot.
But his ability to decipher a defense gives him an edge. One NFL personnel man pointed to Jones' 21-yard completion to Agholor in the third quarter. On second-and-15, the Dolphins put six defenders on the line but rushed five after the snap, dropping into a zone coverage. Jones had to hit a deep-left shot between two defenders. His accuracy was impressive, but more importantly, he figured out Miami's defensive look in the moment.
My grade: B. Jones wasn't the problem. The problem was the Patriots' uncharacteristic fumbling issues (they fumbled four times, losing two of them). Jones was decisive and played to his strengths as a distributor.
When will the other two first-rounders start?
It's tough to grade the performances of Lance and Fields because of their limited scope. The duo combined for nine snaps: Lance had four, while Fields had five.
Lance, as expected, played a complementary role to Jimmy Garoppolo, throwing a 5-yard touchdown pass on his only attempt and adding three carries for 2 yards. Fields, less expectedly, spelled Andy Dalton on a small batch of plays in Sunday's 34-14 loss to the Rams, completing 2 of 2 passes for 10 yards and adding a 3-yard rushing score that got his Bears teammates hyped.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
It's pretty clear Chicago players respond to Fields, who has more big-play ability than Dalton. But Chicago believes it can win games with steady if unspectacular quarterback play and figures Fields needs more time to develop. By playing Fields in a limited role, Bears coach Matt Nagy can feed off Fields' energy while keeping his plan not to unseat Dalton intact. Win-win ... unless the losses mount.
One NFC scout said it wouldn't be shocking if Fields becomes the starter somewhere in the range of Weeks 5 to 8, while another predicts Dalton might last until November or beyond if Chicago can keep its record respectable. The Bears see the Bengals in Week 2 and the Lions in Week 4, but the schedule before the Week 10 bye includes the Packers, Browns, Buccaneers, 49ers and Steelers.
"This really depends on how much heat Chicago takes and how much the coaching staff can take," an AFC exec said. "They want to ride with Dalton, and the longer he plays, the more they are winning."
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is a little more settled, execs predict, largely because Garoppolo is 25-8 as the 49ers' starter after Sunday's win and because they have a contending roster. One NFL personnel evaluator said Lance might go the entire season in his current role, which could expand as the weeks unfold.
"I just think Kyle [Shanahan] is going to have success with it, so at that point, why change?" a veteran NFL coach said. "He's the perfect coach to change those styles and use them to his advantage."