NFL teams will haggle, claim they are cash-strapped or swear they won't make another offer -- but, eventually, most of the game's star players get paid.
That's what went down last week with the Seahawks' Jamal Adams, now the highest-paid safety by a sizable margin thanks to a four-year, $70 million offer. Or the week before, when Josh Allen was put on track to become second-richest quarterback in NFL history thanks to the Bills' $258 million extension over six years. Indianapolis' Darius Leonard and San Francisco's Fred Warner just reset the linebacker market by a few million per year on deals worth a combined $196 million. And linemen Jonathan Allen, Braden Smith and Taylor Moton recently put an extra $214 million on the board.
All this took place as teams adjusted to an 8% decrease in the salary cap due to uncertainty from the COVID-19 pandemic. But the money will continue to flow, as the NFL is poised for another billion-plus in spending over August and the first part of September. Week 1 is an artificial deadline for teams to secure long-term deals with their stars, and several could come off the board in the next few weeks.
Let's dive into the mechanics of the 10 most fascinating potential deals, with reporting, insight and musings from around the league. Will a deal get done, what could it look like and what will happen as a result? Plus, Brodie Waters -- who runs IMAC Consulting and ESPN's Roster Management System -- forecast contracts for three of the biggest names still waiting for a new deal: Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and T.J. Watt. Let's start with Cleveland's major decision looming on its winning quarterback.
Jump to:
Mayfield | Jackson | Adams | Goedert
Andrews | Watt | Lattimore | Gilmore
Bates | Smith | Others of note
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
Current status: The Browns have not been aggressive -- at least not yet -- with re-signing Mayfield, who has made clear he cares very little about negotiations. That's not necessarily a concern, though. The Browns have looked to extend several core players, starting with running back Nick Chubb last month. They've begun discussions with cornerback Denzel Ward, though a deal is considered a long shot as of now.
As I'm hearing, there's a strong chance Mayfield enters this season without a deal, but the Browns do believe Mayfield -- whose fifth-year option for 2022 was picked up -- can be their long-term answer at quarterback, and Mayfield knows that. So eventually, the team must decide whether that faith is strong enough to acknowledge a QB market that balloons by the month.
Mayfield isn't expected to reach Josh Allen's six-year, $258 million extension signed earlier this month, so maybe that alleviates pressure on both sides. But Allen became the third quarterback to reach the $40 million annual plateau and the fifth at $35 million or above. That range is now a starting point for any young quarterback who can make a case as a top-15 passer.
So since Mayfield's deal is the most complicated Cleveland faces, the Browns seem to be gauging the market of other players first, getting a clear picture of their salary cap before coming over the top with the quarterback. Mayfield's reps have a good working relationship with the Browns, so talks will indeed reignite.
Verdict: I think this one plays out a little longer than expected, with the possibility of an in-season deal or Mayfield shutting talks down himself. Mayfield's home run leverage is in 2022. If he plays really well and the Browns have more playoff success, his outlook is really strong. He would be one year from free agency, and the Browns would have to elevate him at that point. Betting on himself -- something Mayfield seems to embrace -- is a good play.
The quarterback market has reached a boiling point, with Russell Wilson falling to fifth in quarterback pay 28 months after a landmark four-year, $140 million deal. Mayfield likely needs to be, at the least, halfway between Wilson and Allen in compensation, and it's uncertain whether Cleveland is willing to get there.
But Waters has Mayfield coming in strong with his proposal: five years with $206 million in new cash, $152.6 million over the next three years, a $30 million signing bonus and $143 million total guaranteed. Big option bonuses over the first two years are necessary to get this payout high for cap purposes, Waters said.
That puts him below Allen but ahead of Dak Prescott, who, interestingly enough, is a comp that several NFL evaluators make for Mayfield's ceiling as a player. The guarantees would be in line with edge rusher Myles Garrett, who got a reported $100 million in total guarantees from Cleveland last summer as part of his $125 million extension over five years.
Aftermath: I can't overstate the importance of this deal, a litmus test for how much teams will pay for good quarterbacks just outside of the top tier. Mayfield could become great with another year, but evaluators don't see him as a top-10 guy just yet. So the Browns' team-building method comes into focus.
The outlandish payouts have some teams wondering if drafting first-round passers every three or four years is an easier path, a revolving door of cheap rookie deals at the game's most important position to free up money for other positions. That's easier said than done, and an underplayed angle is how the Browns would manage the storyline of not doing a deal. They are an ascending team with nothing but good vibes, and extending Mayfield reinforces that the franchise is all in on this group. Not doing it plants a seed of doubt.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Current status: The Ravens want to sign Jackson, who is under contract through 2022. They've made that very clear both publicly and privately, and they would have little problem knocking this one out relatively soon. A recent MVP with an entire offense built around him usually gets paid. But the word in league circles is Jackson isn't exactly pressing the issue, either, as he has been locked into season prep.
He also is representing himself, with help from his family and possibly an advisor. Players have represented themselves in the past, and there are success stories. Seattle linebacker Bobby Wagner scored himself a $54 million extension over three years that still holds up well two years after the deal. But quarterback deals are more complex because of the money involved, so Jackson will have plenty of work to do in the coming weeks or months.
Verdict: Waters projects a six-year, $265 million deal with $156.4 million guaranteed. That means roughly $1 million more per year than Allen got, since Jackson can argue he has accomplished more as the 2019 MVP.
The trade-off is the team does a $25 million signing bonus, flooding the zone with a series of $4 million to $7 million option and roster bonuses from 2022 to 2026 to get the money up. That's basically a rolling guarantee, a way for a team to pay a player while avoiding the "fully guaranteed" label that sets the table for future deals. With the bonuses, it has more control under a pay-as-you-go method.
This deal lessens the cap hit to $5.92 million in 2021 and $17.5 million in 2022, before ballooning into the inevitable $40 million range after that. Jackson would get $139 million in new cash over the first three years -- $164.4 million when including the final two years of his rookie deal. But again, this is a projection.
Aftermath: The Ravens would have to work overtime to budget around Jackson's sizable cap hits in the coming years. But the ballooning cap due to the league's increasing revenues will help Baltimore, which is scheduled to have $128 million in cap space in 2023. That will decrease as the Ravens sign more players, but there's plenty of runway to keep core players while continuing to build the offense around Jackson. The Ravens also need to figure out Jackson's favorite target, Mark Andrews. More on that below.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
Current status: Talks broke off last month, and they haven't picked up steam, which is silly on multiple fronts. Adams is the game's best receiver and in his prime (will turn 29 in December). He is the player you re-sign whether Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love is the quarterback.
But there's a difference in perspective on the top of the market. One particular hang-up was whether DeAndre Hopkins' two-year, $54 million extension was a barometer for highest-paid WR. While Adams can point to that $27 million per year as the going rate, the Packers wouldn't go that far, since Hopkins had three years left on his original deal -- about $84 million over five years. Meanwhile, Julio Jones' two-year, $66 million extension from 2019 was considered more palatable for the team. Jones had two years left on his previous deal when he earned that extension at age 30. It's pretty easy to see why Adams wouldn't embrace that inconsistency from the team.
Guaranteed money also is believed to be an issue. The Packers cling to the antiquated contract structure with the signing bonus as the only true guarantee. Then they use option or roster bonuses that can be chopped up and restructured, leaving star players with bloated salary-cap numbers and uneasy futures.
The Packers could give Adams the Jones treatment with a market increase on top, but since he has one year left and the receiver market should keep rising, Adams has leverage. He knows he can post big numbers with Rodgers for one more season and go get an obscene deal from, say, Las Vegas or any other receiver-hungry suitor in free agency next spring.
Verdict: One veteran NFL agent said Adams would be justified asking for $80 million over three years with $60 million guaranteed. My hunch is the Packers wouldn't do that. But they should turn up the heat closer to Week 1 or even during the season, offering a deal somewhere above teammate David Bakhtiari's four-year, $92 million extension. Green Bay typically insists on longer deals.
But therein lies another issue: Bakhtiari was, at the time of signing in November, the game's highest-paid tackle, even though he isn't the consensus best tackle. That honor belongs to the 49ers' Trent Williams. Adams, however, is considered in most league circles to be the best NFL wideout.
At least attempting to push Adams into the $25 million club would make things competitive. It's worth trying with a player of this caliber. Otherwise, Green Bay can try to franchise-tag him. That number projects around $19.2 million, but some agents believe it will exceed $20 million by next year. I can say with authority that Adams would not be pleased with the tag and would probably make next offseason mighty interesting as a result.
Aftermath: The Packers are already cap-crunched, with a projected $13.4 million deficit next year. Trading Rodgers would save about $18 million in space after factoring in dead money. But that still leaves Green Bay with several star players -- Bakhtiari, edge rusher Za'Darius Smith and defensive tackle Kenny Clark -- carrying cap hits that were either $20 million-plus or got restructured down slightly.
And would Adams want to return without one of the game's best not throwing to him? Either way, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown and young wide receivers everywhere will be rooting for Adams to maximize his dollar.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Current status: Both sides explored a potential contract early in the offseason, and there hasn't been much momentum since then, for reasons unknown. The team views Goedert as a cornerstone for the post-Zach Ertz era, and Goedert is widely regarded as one of the game's most complete young tight ends. But something is holding Philadelphia back, and it feels like the Eagles are waiting on another domino to drop. The whispers of the Eagles' interest in QB Deshaun Watson aren't going away, so perhaps the Eagles must figure that out before any major spending -- especially if they must ship key players to Houston to consummate a deal.
The other thing: Ertz, surprisingly, is still on Philly's roster. The Eagles were close to trading him several times this offseason but ultimately chose to keep him. Preseason injuries around the league could reignite Ertz's value. In theory, Ertz's future shouldn't affect Goedert's contract status. Ertz is due $8.25 million in the final year of his deal, a lot to carry along with another big-money tight end; but if necessary, the Eagles can structure Goedert's deal around Ertz's number to soften the blow.
The looming franchise tag for tight ends is also an issue because it is on the lighter side, potentially in the $11 million range. Ertz will be a free agent next spring.
Verdict: Surpassing San Francisco tight end George Kittle's per-year average of $15 million will be tough, but the days of tight ends taking steep discounts are over. They are too valuable. So Goedert will definitely strengthen the market, and Philadelphia will make a push in the coming weeks.
One league source that deals with the salary cap said Goedert's per-year average could land somewhere between Travis Kelce's $14.3 million per year and Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith's $12.5 million per year. Five years and $70 million, with $35 million to $40 million in guarantees, might be a feasible framework, though Goedert might prefer a four-year pact for flexibility purposes.
The Eagles could argue Goedert has never had a 60-catch season and has missed six games the past two years. But an ESPN+ poll of league evaluators ranked Goedert as the NFL's sixth-best tight end despite sharing the field with Ertz.
Aftermath: The Eagles have a cap cushion of $19.7 million thanks to a slew of restructures, so extending Goedert shouldn't hamper their roster management. There's no other player they need to re-sign as of now.
Goedert will help lay the groundwork for Denver's Noah Fant and Green Bay's Robert Tonyan next year and, eventually, Darren Waller, who has three years at a heavily discounted $6 million in base salary annually.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Current status: Baltimore has made clear it would like to extend Andrews, the team's most reliable pass-catcher, but it's early in the process. The Ravens will likely need to sort through Jackson's deal first, given its magnitude.
League evaluators ranked Andrews as the NFL's fourth-best tight end in the ESPN+ poll, and given Baltimore's history of re-signing successful draft picks, it should aggressively pursue a deal with Andrews eventually. Andrews, who is in the final season of his rookie deal, has 122 catches and 17 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and his large catch radius is crucial to Jackson on passing downs.
This has the makings of an eventual re-sign based on the caliber of the player and an organization that rewards production.
Verdict: I'm guessing this gets done, but maybe not until October. The Ravens don't mind negotiating during the season, executing big-money deals for cornerback Marlon Humphrey and left tackle Ronnie Stanley in October.
If Andrews aims for the top of the market, perhaps five years at $72.5 million with $45 million guaranteed might become a sweet spot. Both Humphrey and Stanley got more than 60% of their deals guaranteed, so this is in line with that thinking.
Where Andrews plays adds to his value. The Ravens were the league's worst passing attack last season with 171.2 yards per game, yet Andrews caught 37 passes for a first down, with 17.2% of his receptions going for 20-plus yards. And like it is with Goedert, the low TE franchise tag projection will be a factor in this process for Baltimore.
Aftermath: Baltimore has around $8.2 million in cap space, but most of its core is under contract for multiple years, so spreading out Andrews' signing bonus over six years (including the last year of his rookie deal) will assuage any short-term concerns.
T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current status: This one is pretty clear-cut: Watt needs to become the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL, which means more than $27 million per year or above Joey Bosa's $135 million over five years.
The pass-rush market ballooned at the perfect time for Watt, whose two-year production line stands up against any defensive player: 29.5 sacks, 10 forced fumbles, 15 pass deflections, 37 tackles for loss, 77 quarterback hits, 3 interceptions and 108 tackles. Taking anything less than something at least within Bosa's range just isn't feasible, which Watt indicated by his "hold in" during training camp. (He has participated in individual drills but not team work.)
Both sides continue to discuss the framework of a deal, but until Pittsburgh gets in the stratosphere, Watt could continue to wait. He is playing the 2021 slate on his fifth-year option, and he would be a free agent after the season.
Complicating matters is the fact that Pittsburgh traditionally doesn't guarantee much beyond a signing bonus, clinging to its structure while, as general manager Kevin Colbert has highlighted in the past, most veterans end up playing out their extensions in Pittsburgh. But Watt knows that setup is not a true guarantee, so Pittsburgh needs to come over the top with a big number to offset its aging model.
Verdict: The Steelers have a few options to get this done before Week 1, and each requires a big, three-year cash flow.
Waters proposes a five-year, $136.4 million extension with a $36 million signing bonus and $93.4 million in new money over the first three years, the most ever for an NFL defensive player. For comparison, Bosa's three-year intake is $87.6 million. And that's arguably the most important thing with complex deals that aren't guaranteed in the later years.
If the Steelers really want to entice Watt, they could bump that signing bonus closer to, say, $65 million. But even with the $36 million number that Waters proposed, the team could add a $10 million roster bonus to up his first-year payout closer to $50 million and then add hefty salaries between $14 million and $17 million in years 2 and 3. These are the types of numbers necessary to secure a player of Watt's caliber.
Aftermath: The next $30 million non-quarterback might not be far behind. The money says pass-rusher is the game's second-most valued position, and star edge players after Watt will capitalize on his market reset. It might take a while, since most of the game's top pass-rushers have at least four years of experience. But San Francisco's Nick Bosa and Washington's Chase Young are the logical next standard-bearers.
Marshon Lattimore, CB, New Orleans Saints
Current status: Lattimore wants a new deal, preferably before Week 1, so the clock is ticking. A 2022 free agent, he has been practicing and playing the good teammate role. But the Saints know he wants the extension, and they aren't afraid to pay stars despite being perpetually tight against the cap. They also are light on cornerbacks this season, so keeping a pillar on the back end isn't a bad idea. Lattimore, 25, ranked seventh among corners in an ESPN+ poll of league evaluators.
It's noteworthy the Saints already restructured Lattimore's fifth-year option of $10.2 million, converting most of it to a signing bonus to recoup $7 million in cap space. Should Lattimore leave in free agency, the team incurs nearly $7 million in dead money.
Verdict: I'd expect the Saints work to finalize a deal with Lattimore somewhere between that of Tre'Davious White (four years, $69 million) and Humphrey (five years, $97 million). Think $18 million to $19 million per year over five seasons, with incentives to push it up.
This puts Lattimore in line with a draft-class mate in New Orleans, right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who signed a five-year, $96 million deal with $60.2 million guaranteed earlier this offseason. Both players are franchise cornerstones, and though Ramczyk is slightly more consistent as a player, Lattimore has shown flashes of dominance as a shutdown press corner. If Saints are paying Ramczyk close to $20 million per year, it's tough to ask Lattimore to take just $17 million if both are from the same draft class and are each top-10 players at crucial positions.
The flip side is New Orleans needs depth at corner, so it might need to allocate resources to strengthening the position as a whole.
Aftermath: New Orleans faces a decision with left tackle Terron Armstead, who is still playing at a high level at age 30. He is a free agent in 2022, and with the Saints adding a voidable year to his deal as part of a restructure, they can't franchise-tag him next year. New Orleans converted $9 million of his existing base salary and a $1 million roster bonus into a signing bonus in March. It seems New Orleans must decide which player to re-sign between Lattimore and Armstead, who would do very well in free agency.
Stephon Gilmore, CB, New England Patriots
Current status: This one is complicated by Gilmore's health. He is still rehabbing a torn quad suffered in December. He is working diligently on it and is expected to make a full recovery, but he has been out of the mix this preseason. With cuts looming on Aug. 31, the Patriots must decide whether to carry him on the 53-man roster knowing he could miss more time or place him on the physically unable to perform list.
Contract talks have not heated up, and it's the worst-kept secret in the league that the former NFL Defensive Player of the Year has no desire to play on a $7 million salary in the final year of his deal. The Patriots are hopeful they can work something out with Gilmore but appear intent on slow-playing this thing, and little clarity is expected before cuts.
Verdict: I'm expecting the Patriots to at least entertain an extension that will put Gilmore into a more respectable range. But this is hardly a slam dunk because of all the factors listed above.
The Darius Slay comp of three years, $50 million is probably fair, though Gilmore could surpass that slightly. Turning 30 is no longer a death knell for top players, so Gilmore, 30, should have a few strong years left. Or perhaps New England simply increases his 2021 intake out of respect for the player, under the stipulation both sides part in 2022.
Aftermath: Gilmore isn't the only key 30-something on defense with contract issues looming for the Patriots. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower, 31, is also a 2022 free agent and has long been a New England staple. I've talked to several NFL coaches who believe Hightower opting out in 2020 was a bigger factor in New England's defensive struggles than some realized. He gets everyone organized pre-snap. But New England has no problem moving on from aging players, so maybe this is a one-and-done for both parties.
The Patriots have $51.6 million in cap space next year, so if they want to re-sign Hightower or offensive tackle Trent Brown, they'll have little issue.
Jessie Bates III, S, Cincinnati Bengals
Current status: The thought was the Bengals were attempting to extend one of the game's best young safeties, but that encouragement has dissipated in recent weeks. A source said a deal is unlikely at this time. The safety market is pretty clear -- $14 million to $15 million per year gets you in the door -- so if the Bengals offered more of a John Johnson III deal ($11 million per year), that's a nonstarter.
Bates is in a similar spot to that of Arizona safety Budda Baker a year ago: not quite a marquee name but trending in that direction. The Cardinals got ahead of Baker's market with a four-year, $59 million deal, which will look like smart money as Baker ascends to the top tier. If the Bengals don't reach that range, this will be difficult to get done.
Bates is a true post safety who makes plays on the ball, as evidenced by three interceptions and 15 pass deflections last season. And Jamal Adams' four-year, $70 million extension with Seattle only helps him.
Verdict: I'd look for Bates to play out this year at a high level, forcing the team to apply the franchise tag or let him walk in free agency, where he would be greeted with a generous deal. Fellow safeties Tyrann Mathieu (Kansas City) and Landon Collins (Washington) each hit the $14 million plateau in 2019 free agency. Bates would likely be able to surpass that.
Aftermath: The franchise tag number for safeties is increasing, so Bates is in a better spot than Marcus Maye and Marcus Williams, who are playing on a $10.6 million tag this year. Overthecap.com projected the 2022 tag at $13.5 million, and that was before Adams' deal hit the books.
So there's a chance Bates plays at $14 million-plus in 2022 and becomes a true free agent in 2023, potentially joining Carl Lawson and William Jackson III as top defensive players to leave Cincinnati. The Bengals did re-sign marquee running back Joe Mixon last summer, so perhaps there's hope. But Cincinnati is letting good players walk and replacing them in free agency, the opposite of the keep-our-own strategy upon which Buffalo, Indianapolis and other teams insist.
Harrison Smith, S, Minnesota Vikings
Current status: The Vikings have been discussing a new deal with representatives for Smith, one of the game's best safeties over the past decade. The idea of making Smith a Viking for life is attractive to Minnesota, assuming it's comfortable with the deal.
Complicating matters is Smith's mileage. He turned 32 in February, and he plays a demanding position. And what makes Smith great is the ground he covers in the open field. But Smith has maintained a high level of play and does a little bit of everything. Ed Reed made an All-Pro team and three Pro Bowls at 32 or older. I'm not saying Smith is Reed, but the point is it's possible to intercept Father Time and maintain production.
Verdict: A two-year, $30 million extension gives Smith three more years in Minnesota (he is entering the final year of his current contract) and puts him in the top three for positional per-year average without overdoing it due to age. Maybe Minnesota goes lower, but I'm not sure Smith would accept that, knowing free-agent value awaits him.
Aftermath: A deal for Smith takes money away from right tackle Brian O'Neill, a 2022 free agent who has acquitted himself well in three years. O'Neill is a second-round draft "hit" and the kind of player you try to pay. The franchise tag is always an option, but not signing O'Neill now jeopardizes losing him to a big market in March.
The Vikings have $14.9 million in cap space, and they could reduce Smith's $10.2 million hit with an extension -- especially if they add a voidable year.
Others to consider
Denzel Ward, CB, Cleveland Browns: The Browns have begun discussions with the ultratalented Ward, but he has two years before free agency and has faced some durability concerns.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins: Miami's vertical tight end threat will be a priority for the Dolphins' front office.
Quandre Diggs, S, Seattle Seahawks: One of the game's most underrated safeties wants a new deal and could be paired with Adams for the long term. There's nothing moving here yet.
Akiem Hicks, DT, Chicago Bears: Once the subject of trade rumors, Hicks would like a new deal in Chicago. He will turn 32 in November but is still disruptive.
Darious Williams, CB, Los Angeles Rams: The Rams value Williams and would be open to doing something. But Williams -- due $4.766 million on a first-round tender -- knows he'd have big value in free agency, so he can be selective here.
Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, Buffalo Bills: The Bills are aggressive in signing their productive players early in rookie deals, so this one is always a threat for that reason, though there hasn't been much momentum here.
Ryan Jensen, C, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: It feels like the Bucs aren't done with their spending in efforts to keep the core together around QB Tom Brady. Jensen is a big part of the offensive line's identity as an irritant to opposing defensive tackles. The team also could extend defensive end William Gholston.
Duane Brown, OT, Seattle Seahawks: Brown, 35, wants his contract addressed. His current deal has one year remaining at $10 million. Seattle is confident it can come to an agreement with the player, possibly in the form of a one-year extension.
Wyatt Teller, G, Cleveland Browns: An ascending young guard, Teller embodies the Browns' new culture. This could be one to watch after the team sorts through other contracts.