Just how important is the quarterback position when it comes to evaluating the young talent on an NFL team?
That's the question that faced us as we put together this year's ranking of all 32 NFL teams based on talent under 25 years old. Is it better to be the Los Angeles Chargers, where Justin Herbert might be the most valuable young asset in the entire league after establishing himself with one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history? Or is it better to be the Washington Football Team, where the defense is packed with young talent led by Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young -- but the quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, is emphatically not included in any calculation of talent under the age of 25?
In the end, we ended up with a third team in the No. 1 spot: the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have amassed a lot of draft capital in recent years, and they've used those picks well. Like the Chargers, they have a promising young quarterback, even if his rookie year didn't demonstrate the same amount of promise. Like the Washington Football Team, they have young talent all across the roster, although there's no star who looks quite as stellar as Young. Unlike Los Angeles or Washington, the young talent in Miami includes both a quarterback and is deep at other positions.
These ratings consider not just talent under 25 but also the value and length of those players' current contracts. This will push up the teams with productive players who have several years left on inexpensive rookie contracts and push down the teams that have already had to, or will soon have to, pay their experienced young talent. Check out the bottom of the article for more on our methodology.
Here are our rankings for this season. All ages are as of Sept. 1. Blue-chip players are cornerstone assets from whom teams will likely derive their biggest future value.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
1. Miami Dolphins
2020 ranking: 16
Blue-chip players: QB Tua Tagovailoa, OT Austin Jackson, WR Jaylen Waddle, DT Raekwon Davis
Notable graduated players: DL Christian Wilkins, OT Robert Hunt
It's not hard to rank a team at No. 1 in young talent when they've had five first-round picks over the course of the last two seasons.
Those five first-rounders are led, of course, by last year's fifth overall pick, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Many fans see Tagovailoa's rookie season as a disappointment, but honestly it is only a disappointment if you compare him to the stellar season that Justin Herbert had for the Los Angeles Chargers. Most quarterbacks, even first-rounders, start their careers off slowly, and Tagovailoa was no exception. Tagovailoa ranked 26th among qualifying quarterbacks in both ESPN QBR and Football Outsiders DVOA. That was the worst of last year's three first-round passers, but not worryingly so. Looking at history, Tagovailoa had a slightly above-average rookie season. His passing DVOA ranked him 20th out of 54 qualifying first-round rookie passers since 1983 (min. 200 passes).
However, Miami is on top because the young talent here goes far past just Tagovailoa. Let's start on the offensive line, where the Dolphins started two rookies last year. They certainly played like rookies: Left tackle Austin Jackson was in the top 15 for blown blocks despite missing three games, while guard Solomon Kindley ranked 84th out of 111 interior linemen in snaps per blown block. But both linemen also showed promise for growth in their second seasons. On the defensive side of the ball, nose tackle Raekwon Davis played well enough that he made veteran Davon Godchaux expendable this offseason. And cornerback Noah Igbinoghene could be moving into the starting lineup if the Dolphins meet Xavien Howard's trade request.
These rookies from 2020 are joined by the Dolphins' incoming rookie class, which featured four picks in the top 50. Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips was the top sack candidate in the 2021 draft according to our SackSEER projection system. Our Playmaker Score projections for wide receivers were not quite as excited about Jaylen Waddle, whose collegiate production comes with small sample size concerns. But there's no doubt he's a significant talent and deep threat who averaged 18.9 yards per reception at Alabama.
In the second round, Miami then added free safety Jevon Holland and offensive tackle Liam Eichenberg. They've already cut Bobby McCain to make room for Holland in the starting lineup, and Eichenberg could beat out Robert Hunt for the right tackle job in training camp. (Born in August 1996, Hunt was only seven days away from also being counted in Miami's under-25 talent for this ranking.)
2. Washington Football Team
2020 ranking: 12
Blue-chip players: ER Chase Young, ER Montez Sweat, SS Kamren Curl, DT Daron Payne, LB Jamin Davis
Notable graduated players: WR Terry McLaurin, LB Cole Holcomb
Washington's young talent is almost all about the defense, which makes sense since Washington finished third in defensive DVOA last season after one of the 10 biggest year-to-year improvements on that side of the ball in our entire database (since 1983).
Obviously, the huge superstar here is Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young, who is just 22 and with a fifth-year option will be under contract in Washington for four more years. Young had 7.5 sacks and 26 hurries last season. On the other side of the line, Montez Sweat just makes it past the deadline for consideration on this list (he turns 25 on Sept. 4!) and he had nine sacks and 32 hurries last season. In between them is 24-year-old Daron Payne as one of two starting defensive tackles; he was third at his position in run stop rate last season. His backup, Tim Settle, is also just 24.
Of course, all three of these starting linemen were first-round picks, so we expected them to be good. The same goes for this year's first-round selection, the raw but athletic linebacker Jamin Davis. Washington is also getting defensive value from later-round selections. Kamren Curl was a seventh-round pick in 2020 but started 11 games at safety and led the team in run stops. He made his average run tackle after just a 4.1-yard gain, phenomenal even for a box safety. He is still just 22. On the other side of the ball, the young talent is highlighted by running back Antonio Gibson, who finished sixth in rushing DVOA as a rookie and takes over the starting job full time this season at age 23.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
2020 ranking: 23
Blue-chip players: QB Justin Herbert, LB Kenneth Murray, OT Rashawn Slater
Notable graduated players: FS Derwin James
There's a reasonable argument that the Chargers should be No. 1 simply because of Justin Herbert, whom our methodology ranked as the most valuable young asset in the league after his phenomenal rookie campaign in 2000.
Herbert ranked 13th in ESPN QBR last year, which is a per-play metric. If you look at Football Outsiders' DYAR, a total metric that accounts for just how much of the Chargers' offense Herbert represented, he does even better: eighth in the NFL. In fact, Herbert had the sixth-best rookie campaign of any quarterback since 1983 based on passing DYAR. He trailed only Dak Prescott in 2016, Matt Ryan in 2008, Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Dan Marino in 1983 and Russell Wilson in 2012.
There's more talent here than just Herbert, but it's not as deep as what we find in Miami or Washington. Kenneth Murray, 22, is a natural run-and-chase player, a quality tackler and run defender. He was not the coverage star his speed suggests he should be, ranking just 68th among qualifying linebackers in success rate in pass coverage last year, and his value to the Chargers is held down by the relative lesser importance of off-ball linebackers in the current NFL.
The defense also features 24-year-olds Jerry Tillery (tackle) and Nasir Adderley (safety), but neither one has fully met his potential in the NFL. Tillery is a good pass-rushing tackle but struggles against the run, ranking 87th among defensive tackles in run stop rate last season. Adderley missed the 2019 season with a hamstring injury and had a high missed tackle rate in 2020.
In fact, the best asset besides Herbert might be a rookie, 13th overall pick and likely starting left tackle Rashawn Slater. He's joined by three Day 2 picks from this most recent draft: cornerback Asante Samuel, wide receiver Josh Palmer, and tight end Tre' McKitty.
4. Baltimore Ravens
2020 ranking: 2
Blue-chip players: QB Lamar Jackson, LB Patrick Queen, WR Marquise Brown
Notable graduated players: LT Orlando Brown (also traded), CB Marlon Humphrey, TE Mark Andrews
Let's start with Lamar Jackson, because not every team has someone who has won the NFL MVP who is still under 25 years of age. Jackson won't turn 25 until Jan. 7. Yes, his play last season didn't match his MVP play from the year before, but he still finished the year seventh in ESPN QBR and he's still one of the league's most valuable young assets.
Jackson's top two wide receivers this year are likely to be under-25 players as well: Marquise "Hollywood" Brown is five months younger than Jackson, while first-round rookie Rashod Bateman doesn't turn 22 until late November. Top running back J.K. Dobbins is also only 22 this season; he turns 23 in December.
On the defensive side of the ball, Baltimore's young talent starts at the inside linebacker position with both Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison. Queen was the far more impactful player in his rookie season, struggling in times in coverage but improving over the course of the year. He brought both the good and the bad as a rookie: His 20 defeats were second to Chase Young among rookies, but his 18 broken tackles in Sports Info Solutions charting also led all rookies. Meanwhile, Harrison will get more playing time over veteran L.J. Fort in 2021, particularly when the Ravens are in base defense.
On the outside, first-round rookie Odafe Oweh may be Baltimore's top edge rusher this season. He has an impressive SackSEER projection of 24.5 sacks over his first five seasons, second behind Jaelan Phillips among this year's rookie edge rushers. And don't sleep on defensive lineman Justin Madubuike, who finishes third on this year's Football Outsiders' ranking of under-the-radar prospects. The somewhat undersized defensive tackle was a key rotational cog in his rookie season and came alive with a sack, two tackles for a loss and a pass defensed in Baltimore's playoff win over Tennessee.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
2020 ranking: 7
Blue-chip players: QB Trevor Lawrence, CB CJ Henderson, WR DJ Chark, WR Laviska Shenault
Notable graduated players: LB Myles Jack, OT Cam Robinson
The young talent here is led by first overall pick Lawrence, considered to be the best quarterback prospect to come out of college in nearly a decade. But there's a lot more beyond Lawrence. The problem is that most of those players either aren't under contract for much longer or haven't fully fulfilled their potential.
In the first category, we find wide receiver DJ Chark, a 2018 second-round pick who has one more year before he becomes a free agent. Chark is really looking to breakout with Lawrence throwing to him this season. He dropped last season by 300 yards compared to the year before, and he may only have himself to blame. Chark was second in the league in DYAR after four weeks last season but admitted at OTAs that after the Jaguars fell to 1-3, there were times where he let "the circumstances control the output." He can't do that if he wants to win a big second contact, in Jacksonville or elsewhere.
The second category is highlighted by edge rushers Josh Allen and K'Lavon Chaisson, first-round picks from the 2019 and 2020 drafts, respectively. Allen had 10.5 sacks as a rookie but fell to 5.5 last year as he missed half the season with a knee injury. Chaisson had only one sack in his rookie season but did manage to lead the Jaguars with 19 hurries; that's a good sign since hurries tend to be more consistent from year to year than sack totals. Another defender who still needs to reach his full potential is the 2020 ninth overall pick, cornerback CJ Henderson, who played just eight games last year as a rookie but missed time with both groin and shoulder injuries.
And we would be remiss if we didn't mention a couple of other offensive players who are just 22 years old and somewhat similar in their position versatility. Laviska Shenault is a wide receiver who can be a weapon out of the backfield, while rookie Travis Etienne is a running back who can also line up as a receiver.
6. San Francisco 49ers
2020 ranking: 5
Blue-chip players: QB Trey Lance, ER Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner, DT Javon Kinlaw, WR Brandon Aiyuk
Notable graduated players: WR Deebo Samuel
Here's another team with a promising young quarterback, third overall pick Trey Lance. Lance doesn't turn 22 until May. Whether he takes the starting job sometime during the 2021 season or not until 2022, he'll be throwing to weapons that include 23-year-old Brandon Aiyuk, who gained 70 or more yards in six of his final seven games last season. Lance will be handing off to third-round rookie Trey Sermon (age 22), and second-round rookie Aaron Banks (age 23) will be blocking for him.
But the 49ers have even more outstanding young talent on defense than they do on offense. All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner, who is still just 24, excels in pass coverage and signed a five-year, $95 million extension that included $40.5 million guaranteed. Outside linebacker Dre Greenlaw matched Warner with 15 defeats last season and is also just 24. Then there are two defensive linemen who both turn 24 this October. Edge rusher Nick Bosa is coming back from a torn ACL that limited him to two games in 2020, but he had nine sacks as a rookie in 2019 along with 62 hurries, third in the NFL that season. Defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw made the PFWA All-Rookie team and ranked ninth at his position in run stop rate.
7. New York Giants
2020 ranking: 1
Blue-chip players: QB Daniel Jones, OT Andrew Thomas, DL Dexter Lawrence, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Kadarius Toney
Notable graduated players: SS Jabrill Peppers, G Will Hernandez
Here's another team where a lot of the young talent still has a ton of potential it hasn't grown into yet.
That starts with quarterback Daniel Jones. Jones is an interesting prospect because he performed much better in ESPN QBR (61.5, 20th) than Football Outsiders passing DVOA (-2.4%, 32nd) last season. Some of that comes from Jones' rushing value, and some of it comes from his ability to throw deep. Jones was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league last year on passes more than 15 yards through the air, but he was the third lowest in yards per attempt on passes under 5 air yards.
The former strength of Jones is helped by the presence of 24-year-old receiver Darius Slayton, an absolute hit as a 2019 fifth-round pick. The latter weakness hopefully can be helped to improve with the addition of first-round pick Kadarius Toney, a slants-and-screens sparkplug who is just 22.
Another player who has yet to meet his potential is offensive tackle Andrew Thomas, selected fourth overall in the 2020 draft. Thomas struggled significantly, tied for the league lead with 42 blown blocks last season, but he had only 13 of those blown blocks in the second half of the year, so his career is certainly on an upward trajectory. Offensive talent under the age of 25 also still includes running back Saquon Barkley, who does not turn 25 until February.
On the defensive side of the ball, the biggest young talent is defensive end Dexter Lawrence, who hasn't quite matched his projection as a run defender but may be a better pass-rusher than originally expected. He had four sacks and 15 hurries last season and turns 24 in November. Safety Xavier McKinney falls into the category of potential as well, since he only managed to start four games as a rookie due to injuries. Second-round rookie Azeez Ojulari is also an interesting prospect: not just a quality edge rusher but the best run defender at the position in the Class of 2021.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 ranking: 20
Blue-chip players: OT Tristan Wirfs, LB Devin White, FS Antoine Winfield
Notable graduated players: WR Chris Godwin
The Buccaneers have a ton of young talent after a couple of very successful drafts. Their most valuable asset under 25 is probably right tackle Tristan Wirfs, who ranked 11th among all tackles in snaps per blown block. That was well ahead of the other young tackles drafted before him last April. Wirfs turns 23 in January.
Starting safety Antoine Winfield is a physical playmaker, also from last year's draft class. He turns 23 this month. Inside linebacker Devin White turned 23 in February, and he still has three years in Tampa Bay before his rookie contract runs out. White led all inside linebackers in sacks, hits, and hurries and tied for the league lead in defeats. The Bucs also restocked their pass rush with this year's first-round pick, 22-year-old Joe Tryon.
The main reason Tampa Bay doesn't rank even higher in these rankings is that a lot of their best players under 25 have contracts that run out soon. That includes most of the starting secondary. Cornerbacks Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, and Sean Murphy-Bunting are all 24 years old as of Sept. 1, but Davis has just one more year under contract and Dean and Murphy-Bunting have just two more years. Strong safety Jordan Whitehead is also 24 and has just one more year with Tampa Bay before becoming a free agent.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
2020 ranking: 19
Blue-chip players: QB Joe Burrow, WR Tee Higgins, WR Ja'Marr Chase, FS Jessie Bates
Notable graduated players: LB Germaine Pratt, RB Joe Mixon
This ranking for the Bengals is almost entirely due to offense. We'll start with 2020 first overall pick Joe Burrow, who ranked 24th in QBR in his shortened rookie season. If he's healthy after last year's ACL tear, the Bengals will be expecting a big jump in his second season. However, Burrow was somewhat old for a rookie last year and will turn 25 during the upcoming season (in December).
The offense around Burrow is also made up of a lot of young and talented players. The starting outside wide receivers will be 22-year-old Tee Higgins, a second-round pick in 2020, and 21-year-old Ja'Marr Chase, who was this year's fifth overall selection. The left side of Burrow's line will also be made up of young talents. Left tackle belongs to Jonah Williams, age 23, who is hoping to finally have a fully healthy season in his third NFL campaign. The left guard position will belong either to third-year man Michael Jordan, age 23, or rookie second-rounder Jackson Carman, age 21.
The spotlight on defense falls on safety Jessie Bates, who led all safeties with 15 passes defensed, finished fifth among safeties in run tackles, and got All-Pro consideration. He is the latest in a long line of outstanding safeties stuck on bad defenses, what we might call the Adrian Wilson Conundrum.
10. Carolina Panthers
2020 ranking: 17
Blue-chip players: LB/S Jeremy Chinn, DT Derrick Brown, QB Sam Darnold, ER Brian Burns, WR D.J. Moore, CB Jaycee Horn
Notable graduated players: RB Christian McCaffrey, CB Donte Jackson
There's no one stellar value here to match Chase Young or some of the young quarterbacks we've mentioned already (Herbert, Lawrence, Burrow, etc.). However, the Panthers have a lot of young talent that's pretty good or has pretty good potential.
The best assets are probably on the defensive side of the ball, and they're all 23 years old. Safety/linebacker hybrid Jeremy Chinn lined up all over the formation in his first season. Playing some of the time at linebacker is a big reason he led all safeties with 121 total plays made on defense. Chinn ranked 10th at safety in yards per pass allowed in coverage and had three takeaways with two touchdowns. Last year's seventh overall pick, Derrick Brown, finished with 43 run tackles, ranked among the top dozen defensive linemen in the league.
Brian Burns has been in the league a year longer than Chinn and Brown but is the same age. He had nine sacks and 32 hurries last year, and that hurry total was higher than 10 of the 13 players with more sacks, a strong positive indicator for his sack total to improve in 2021. Yetur Gross-Matos will move into the starting lineup opposite Burns and is also just 23 years old. There's one more prime defensive asset, and he's even younger: 21-year-old eighth overall pick Jaycee Horn, the first cornerback selected in this year's draft.
There's also offensive talent here, but these players aren't as valuable. Obviously, the Panthers are hoping Sam Darnold still has a ton of potential. He's still just 24 years old. He's also been the worst quarterback in the league over the last three years, so we're skeptical about what he can do in Carolina.
We're less skeptical about wide receiver D.J. Moore, who turns 25 in April. Like Darnold, the Panthers have picked up Moore's fifth-year option, so he's here at least two more years. Despite the constant change of quarterback in Carolina, Moore has put up an above-average receiving DVOA in all three of his NFL seasons. Last year, his 18.1 yards per reception ranked third of any wideout with at least 50 pass targets. More than 80% of his receptions resulted in a first down or touchdown, also third among wideouts with at least 50 pass targets.
11. New York Jets
2020 ranking: 8
Blue-chip players: QB Zach Wilson, OT Mekhi Becton, DL Quinnen Williams, G Alijah Vera-Tucker
Notable graduated players: CB Blessuan Austin, TE Christopher Herndon
The Jets' young talent starts with the most recent draft, where New York had three picks in the top 34. Those picks are led by quarterback Zach Wilson, who will have the starting job handed to him as a rookie. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker can also play tackle if necessary, which he did at USC last year. Second-round receiver Elijah Moore had the third-highest Playmaker Score in this year's wide receiver class and was also used heavily in the running game at Ole Miss.
The Jets' top talents from previous drafts set up on opposite sides of the line. Mekhi Becton ranked 16th among left tackles in snaps per blown block as a rookie and should only get better with more experience. On defense, Quinnen Williams has been a fantastic all-around player. Last year he ranked sixth among interior linemen in average yardage on run tackles, but also had seven sacks and 15 hurries in the pass rush. The only problem with Williams is that he hasn't been able to play a full season yet: 13 games in both 2019 and 2020.
Finally, it's worth mentioning a couple of lower-round defensive backs who brought some value from last year's draft. Ashtyn Davis started eight games at safety, while Bryce Hall started seven at cornerback. Both players are still just 23 years old.
12. Arizona Cardinals
2020 ranking: 3
Blue-chip players: QB Kyler Murray, LB Isaiah Simmons, LB Zaven Collins
Notable graduated players: SS Budda Baker, C Mason Cole
This rating is very heavily based on 24-year-old Kyler Murray, who improved his QBR from 58.0 to 68.3 in his second NFL season. Many fans are expecting another big jump in Murray's performance this year, but be aware that by far the most common time for an NFL quarterback to make a big improvement is his second year, not his third year. The basic calculations that we started with when preparing this list rated Murray as the second-most valuable young asset in the league behind Justin Herbert, based on a combination of age and performance in the NFL so far.
Other than Murray, the main young talent on the Cardinals' roster is right in the center of the defense. Versatile linebackers Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins can be used as run-stoppers, pass-rushers or in pass coverage. Simmons is still just 23, while the rookie Collins is 22.
The rest of the Cardinals' young talent either hasn't lived up to expectations or hasn't had a chance to do anything yet. Wide receiver Christian Kirk will turn 25 in November; surprisingly, he's had a negative (below-average) receiving DVOA in each of his three NFL seasons. Nickelback Byron Murphy, age 23, has failed to rank higher than 60th in success rate in either of his two NFL seasons. Safety Jalen Thompson started much of his rookie season in 2019 but missed much of 2020 with an ankle injury and played just five games. Besides Collins, the top rookie in 2021 will be wide receiver Rondale Moore, whose addition could cost Andy Isabella or KeeSean Johnson (both age 24) a roster spot.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
2020 ranking: 14
Blue-chip players: WR Henry Ruggs, ER Maxx Crosby, RB Josh Jacobs, SS Johnathan Abram, OT Alex Leatherwood
Notable graduated players: OT Kolton Miller, WR Hunter Renfrow
The Las Vegas roster is still showing the effects of the 2018 Khalil Mack trade. The Raiders have had six first-round picks over the past three seasons. The young talent on this team would be even more impressive if all of those players were still starting. Edge rusher Clelin Ferrell, the fourth overall pick in 2019, has apparently lost his starting job to free-agent signing Yannick Ngakoue. Cornerback Damon Arnette, the 19th overall selection last year, has lost his starting job to free-agent signing Casey Hayward Jr. Ferrell and Arnette are currently 24, although Arnette turns 25 on Sept. 2, the day after our deadline to be counted for this ranking. Also currently 24 years old are starting safety Johnathan Abram and the edge rusher who will start opposite of Ngakoue, Maxx Crosby.
There are also some good younger talents here. At wide receiver, last year's 12th overall pick Henry Ruggs may start opposite Bryan Edwards. Both receivers are just 22. Ruggs was a deep threat as advertised last year, with 17.4 yards per reception. Edwards had even more impressive 17.5 yards per reception, albeit with a small sample size of just 15 pass targets. Trayvon Mullen, 23, is a good No. 2 cornerback who has been a bit stretched as the Raiders' No. 1 corner in his first couple of seasons; he ranked 38th among cornerbacks in yards per pass target last season. The Raiders also expect big things from this year's top two draft picks, both age 22: first-round tackle Alex Leatherwood and second-round safety Trevon Moehrig.
14. Minnesota Vikings
2020 ranking: 31
Blue-chip players: WR Justin Jefferson, CB Cameron Dantzler, OT Christian Darrisaw
Notable graduated players: OT Brian O'Neill
Wide receiver Justin Jefferson just turned 22 this past June and is the most valuable young offensive asset in the league other than the young quarterbacks. Jefferson's rookie year featured an outstanding 1,400 receiving yards and he totaled 373 DYAR, marking him with the fifth-best rookie wide receiver season in the Football Outsiders data since 1983 (He trails Michael Thomas in 2016, Randy Moss in 1998, Odell Beckham in 2014 and Michael Clayton in 2004).
The Minnesota offense this year will also feature 23-year-old guard Ezra Cleveland, chosen in the second round of last year's draft, and 22-year-old tackle Christian Darrisaw, this year's first-round selection. Tight end Irv Smith will move into the starting lineup after Kyle Rudolph left in free agency; he ranked eighth among qualifying tight ends in DVOA last season.
Cornerback Cameron Dantzler (age 22) is the primary young talent on the defense. He was a third-round pick and ranked 19th in coverage success rate as a rookie. The Vikings do not get credit for cornerback Jeff Gladney, last year's first-round pick who was cut this week after being indicted for a domestic violence assault.
15. Buffalo Bills
2020 ranking: 4
Blue-chip players: LB Tremaine Edmunds, DT Ed Oliver, WR Gabriel Davis
Notable graduated players: QB Josh Allen, CB Taron Johnson
Josh Allen turned 25 in May, which is a big reason the Bills take a tumble in the under-25 talent rankings. But there's still a good amount of young talent at other positions.
The best assets are on the defensive side of the ball. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is still just 23 even after three years in the league. The Bills have him under contract through 2022. He makes a ton of plays, although his charting stats both against the run and the pass are around the league average. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver, 23, hasn't quite lived up to the promise that made him the ninth overall selection in 2019, but he still had 20 hurries last year along with three sacks.
The Bills also have a lot of young talent at the edge rusher position: this year's top two draft picks, 21-year-old Gregory Rosseau and 23-year-old Carlos Basham, plus a player from last year's draft, 22-year-old A.J. Epenesa. These men will play an important role on the team going forward, as starting defensive ends Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison are both in their mid-thirties.
On offense, it's interesting to figure out how to value Gabriel Davis. He ranked 20th in receiving DVOA as a fourth-round rookie and looked like he was in line to play a big role in 2021 ... until the Bills signed veteran Emmanuel Sanders. The Bills' offense also features guard Cody Ford (age 24) and running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss (both age 23).
And dare we mention a young specialist? Yes, we dare! Kicker Tyler Bass, 24, helped Buffalo rank No. 1 in our net kickoff value rankings, and after two missed field goals in Week 1, he was a top-10 placekicker over the rest of the 2020 season.
16. Chicago Bears
2020 ranking: 26
Blue-chip players: QB Justin Fields, LB Roquan Smith, CB Jaylon Johnson
Notable graduated players: None
The Bears have good young talent on both sides of the ball, although the defensive talent is more proven than the offensive talent.
The defense is led by linebacker Roquan Smith, still just 24 years old after three years in the league. Smith tied for the league lead in defeats last year and ranked No. 1 in pass coverage success rate, according to Sports Info Solutions charting. Nose tackle Bilal Nichols is also 24 and had a breakout season playing in place of Eddie Goldman, who had opted out due to COVID-19. Nichols had 16 hurries in the pass rush and ranked 10th among interior defensive linemen in run stop rate. Meanwhile, cornerback Jaylon Johnson went right into the starting lineup last year as a second-round rookie and had a better coverage success rate than the five rookie corners taken ahead of him in the draft. He's just 22.
The offensive side of the ball is more about unmet potential, but there's a lot of it here. The headliner, of course, is 22-year-old first-round rookie quarterback Justin Fields. FO's film maven Derrik Klassen has charted college quarterbacks since 2016 and Fields had the best adjusted accuracy of any passer during that five-year span. Fields hopes to be throwing to 23-year-old Darnell Mooney, a surprise star as a fifth-round rookie last season. He was very inefficient, according to DVOA (81st among 87 qualified wideouts), but a lot of that was related to Chicago's quarterback issues, and Mooney has a ton of promise as a deep threat with 4.38 speed.
The offense also features 22-year-old tight end Cole Kmet and 24-year-old running back David Montgomery. The left side of the offensive line features two 23-year-old linemen: Tackle Teven Jenkins is a little old for a rookie but guard, James Daniels is really young for a player who already has three years of NFL experience.
17. Denver Broncos
2020 ranking: 18
Blue-chip players: WR Jerry Jeudy, QB Drew Lock, C Lloyd Cushenberry, CB Patrick Surtain, TE Noah Fant
Notable graduated players: ER Bradley Chubb, WR Courtland Sutton
Denver didn't have anybody at the top when we ranked young players according to future value, but it had five players between Nos. 40 and 120. We'll start off on the offensive side with wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, still just 22 years old after his first year in the NFL. Jeudy had a very frustrating first season, catching only 70% of the passes that Sports Info Solutions deemed "catchable." (That was the worst rate among qualifying wide receivers.) But all the talent and potential is still here, and 75% of Jeudy's receptions went for first downs and touchdowns. It is good news for Jeudy that drop rate isn't very strongly correlated from year to year.
Jeudy ranked 84th among wide receivers in DVOA; next to him in the slot, KJ Hamler was just 82nd in DVOA, but he's also 22 years old with lots of potential. 23-year-old center Lloyd Cushenberry is another Denver rookie who struggled last season -- he ranked second-to-last among centers in snaps per blown block -- but could improve substantially with experience. And if Cushenberry isn't good enough to start long-term, third-round pick Quinn Meinerz is only 22.
A career total of 1,235 receiving yards doesn't sound like a lot, but that puts tight end Noah Fant seventh among tight ends through their first two years since passing rules changed in 2004. Fant's backup, Albert Okwuegbunam, is also a promising receiving prospect and, like Fant, is just 23 years old.
We also still have to count Drew Lock as part of the young talent core in Denver. He turns 25 in November. We don't know if Lock will be the starting quarterback this season, but there's still a chance he'll break out and become a quality NFL starter in his third year.
There's a lot less under-25 talent here on defense, but ninth overall pick Patrick Surtain doesn't turn 22 until April and could be one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL. He'll take the starting spot of Michael Ojemudia, who becomes a valuable depth piece at age 23 after starting 11 games last year as a third-round rookie.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 ranking: 6
Blue-chip players: FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, LB Devin Bush, WR Chase Claypool, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
Notable graduated players: WR Diontae Johnson
Pittsburgh led the NFL in defensive DVOA last season, so it's no surprise that its young talent base is highlighted by defensive players. The Steelers just wish they had them under contract for a bit longer.
We'll start in the secondary with 24-year-old safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds. Fitzpatrick is under contract for two more years, Edmunds for only one. Free safety Fitzpatrick was first in coverage success rate among safeties last season, while strong safety Edmunds was seventh in run-stop rate. One year younger at age 23 is inside linebacker Devin Bush, a strong all-around playmaker who will be coming back from a torn ACL. And watch out for 24-year-old edge rusher Alex Highsmith; the signing of veteran Melvin Ingram might have cost him a starting job, but he had 15 hurries in limited playing time last season.
On offense, the top asset is 23-year-old wide receiver Chase Claypool. He made headlines with last year's four-touchdown game in Week 4, but he was one of the best third-down receivers in the league all year long. Slot receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is also still just 24 years old; he will turn 25 in November. Joining these two receivers among the Steelers' "skill players" are two promising rookies: first-round running back Najee Harris (age 23) and second-round tight end Pat Freiermuth (age 22).
The Steelers also have two decent but somewhat unseasoned young players as starters on the offensive line: 24-year-old guard Kevin Dotson and 24-year-old tackle Chukwuma Okorafor. But as with defense, a lot of the Steelers' offensive talent under the age of 25 will not be under 25 when we do this list again a year from now.
19. Tennessee Titans
2020 ranking: 13
Blue-chip players: WR A.J. Brown, DL Jeffery Simmons, G Nate Davis
Notable graduated players: LB Rashaan Evans, ER Harold Landry
Here's another team where the most outstanding young talent is a year from falling out of consideration for this ranking.
Wide receiver A.J. Brown is a yards-after-catch machine, and finished fourth and eighth in DVOA among wide receivers in his first two NFL seasons. Defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons had 21 hurries last season, an outstanding total for a 5-tech in a 3-4 base defense. Guard Nate Davis is a premier road-grader in the running game, although he could stand to take another step forward in pass protection. All three players are 24 years old.
There are a couple of younger players in the secondary. Safety Amani Hooker, 23, is set to replace Kenny Vaccaro in the starting lineup this season. Cornerback Kristian Fulton, 22, had only six games as a second-round rookie a year ago, spending much of the season as a healthy scratch. He needs to show improvement in his second year.
The rest of the younger talent here is made of rookies, particularly first-round cornerback Caleb Farley (age 22) and second-round tackle Dillon Radunz (age 23). It hurts the Titans' young talent that their first-round draft selection of tackle Isaiah Wilson a year ago was essentially a wasted pick, with Wilson going AWOL and now out of football.
20. Dallas Cowboys
2020 ranking: 24
Blue-chip players: WR CeeDee Lamb, CB Trevon Diggs, LB Micah Parsons
Notable graduated players: LB Leighton Vander Esch, WR Michael Gallup
The best young asset on the Cowboys' roster is wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who amassed 935 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie. He was the Cowboys' top third-down target by a wide margin and had a 77% conversion rate on those throws. His overall efficiency wasn't great, with a below-average DVOA, but that can be blamed in part on his quarterbacks.
The rest of the young talent on offense is primarily on the line. The Cowboys' line was devastated by injury last season, and the silver lining there is your young talent gets a lot of playing time. Left guard Connor Williams (24) and center Tyler Biadasz (23) should be starters this season. Right guard Connor McGovern (23) and right tackle Terence Steele (24) started last year but will give way this season to veterans Zack Martin and La'el Collins, respectively. They still give the Cowboys plenty of line depth now that they have starting experience.
The defensive talent is highlighted by this year's first-round pick, 22-year-old linebacker Micah Parsons. He's a flexible matchup player and had six sacks, four fumbles, and six pass breakups for Penn State in 2019 before opting out last year. Cornerback Trevon Diggs struggled in the first half of last season but looked better late after returning from a foot injury; he's also just 22 years old. Defensive tackle Neville Gallimore, 24, flew under the radar all season but started nine games and had above-average numbers against the run.
21. Atlanta Falcons
2020 ranking: 30
Blue-chip players: CB A.J. Terrell, G Chris Lindstrom, TE Kyle Pitts
Notable graduated players: None
Atlanta fans can certainly argue with this ranking based on how much they want to value 20-year-old tight end Kyle Pitts. The value calculations that start off this ranking are somewhat conservative about rookies, because many of them do not have a ton of value in their first season or two. For example, except for the five first-round quarterbacks, none of this year's rookies come out among the top 50 young assets in the league. We simply don't know what they are going to be yet.
But Pitts isn't just any first-round draft pick. He's the best tight end prospect in league history by acclamation. Should he be given more value because our expectations for him are so high? There aren't a lot of top-10 tight ends to compare him to. But even if we compare him just to wide receivers, the range of possibilities include Julio Jones (959 yards as a rookie) but also Corey Davis (375 yards as a rookie).
Then there's another issue with Pitts. We're ranking teams here based on the value and length of the contracts for the young talent in question. And at age 20 -- he will turn 21 in October -- Pitts is maybe a little too young. We expect less from a player that young in the near term compared to a player who is 22 or 23 years old. Let's say that we can expect tight ends to peak between age 24 and 27. A first-round pick who starts at age 22 is going to have three years of his peak on his rookie contract (including his fifth-year option). But Pitts will theoretically have just one year of his peak on his rookie contract. If he's as good as we're all expecting, the Falcons will have to pay through the nose to get most of his career peak, because he will be only 25 years old when he starts his sixth season in the NFL. So that knocks the Falcons down in our calculations. But if Pitts is just that good, I don't think Falcons fans will mind that he's still a little young.
As for the rest of Atlanta's young talent, it starts in the secondary, where 22-year-old A.J. Terrell and 24-year-old Isaiah Oliver are two of the top three cornerbacks. Terrell had average charting stats as a rookie, showing potential for improvement. Oliver moved to the slot at midseason and had the best success rate of his career, ranking 24th, but struggled to limit big plays and ranked just 71st in yards per pass target because of a handful of times when he was burned deep. Terrell and Oliver will be joined this year by second-round pick Richie Grant, a 23-year-old safety who can both defend the slot and stop the run.
On offense, we should mention right guard Chris Lindstrom, who led Atlanta offensive linemen in snaps and ranked 23rd at his position in snaps per blown block.
22. Cleveland Browns
2020 ranking: 9
Blue-chip players: OT Jedrick Wills, CB Denzel Ward, CB Greg Newsome
Notable graduated players: ER Myles Garrett, RB Nick Chubb
Cleveland ranks a bit lower than you might expect because injuries have kept us from seeing what some of its young players can do. For example, 22-year-old safety Grant Delpit missed his entire rookie season with a torn Achilles tendon. Cornerback Greedy Williams, 23, missed all of last year with a nerve issue in his shoulder. And while 24-year-old Denzel Ward has been one of the top cornerbacks in the league with healthy -- he ranked seventh in yards allowed per pass target last season -- he also has started only 12 games in each of his three NFL seasons.
The young talent on the defense continues with 21-year-old first-round rookie cornerback Greg Newsome, who will compete with Williams for the right to start opposite Ward. Second-round rookie linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is also just 21 and will compete with 23-year-old Mack Wilson for the starting job at weakside linebacker. Safety Ronnie Harrison, 24, has 29 career starts (in both Jacksonville and Cleveland), and there won't even be room for him in the starting lineup.
On offense, the youth is all about potential rather than past performance with one major exception: 22-year-old left tackle Jedrick Wills, who had a very good rookie season in 2020. Wills ranked 22nd at his position in snaps per blown block but was a hammer in the ground game; the Browns ranked second in the NFL in how often they ran behind left tackle.
Then there's rising 22-year-old receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones, who had an outstanding 51.9% receiving DVOA, but that came on a small sample of just 20 pass targets. The Browns also expect big things from third-round rookie receiver Anthony Schwartz, but he still needs to develop from track star to real NFL wide receiver after averaging fewer than 40 yards per game at Auburn. He's got time, though; he doesn't turn 21 until September.
23. Detroit Lions
2020 ranking: 25
Blue-chip players: TE T.J. Hockenson, G Jonah Jackson, CB Jeff Okudah, OT Penei Sewell
Notable graduated players: C Frank Ragnow, CB Amani Oruwariye
The young talent in Detroit is built around three straight top-eight draft selections.
The top 2019 pick, 24-year-old tight end T.J. Hockenson, still hasn't put up above-average DVOA through two years, but he did have 723 yards and six touchdowns last season while his blocking improved. The top 2020 pick, 22-year-old cornerback Jeff Okudah, underwhelmed with a miserable 36% coverage success rate and 11.9 yards allowed per pass as a rookie, but all that potential he showed in college is still brimming under the surface. The top 2021 pick, offensive tackle Penei Sewell, is still just 20 years old and is one of the most promising young tackle prospects in years. He won't turn 21 until October.
Going past the first round, you've got running back D'Andre Swift, who is poised for a breakout year at age 22. Left guard Jonah Jackson started all 16 games as a third-round rookie. He ranked 29th at his position in snaps per blown block but is just 24 years old and should get better with experience. Linebacker Jahlani Tavai started 10 games last season and turns 25 in September. And there's a lot of youth in the defensive tackle rotation, including 24-year-old second-year tackle John Penisini and rookies Levi Onwuzurike (second round, age 23) and Alim McNeill (third round, age 21).
24. Green Bay Packers
2020 ranking: 22
Blue-chip players: CB Jaire Alexander, SS Darnell Savage, QB Jordan Love
Notable graduated players: G Elgton Jenkins
Jaire Alexander is still just 24 years old and the best young cornerback in the game. Last year, he ranked second in yards allowed per pass target and third in coverage success rate. He is joined in the secondary by strong safety Darnell Savage, also 24 years old, who is a force against the run and also was in the top five for safeties with 12 passes defensed last season. This spring, the Packers added 22-year-old cornerback Eric Stokes to the secondary with their first-round pick.
There's some young talent in the defensive front as well. Rashan Gary, 23, a first-round pick in 2019, might be ready to move into the starting lineup this year in place of Preston Smith. Gary had 19 hurries last year compared to just 11 for Smith in nearly twice as many snaps. The Packers prefer to play dime, but when they do go to a base defense, that means playing time for 23-year-old linebacker Krys Barnes, who had a surprising 10 games started as an undrafted rookie in 2020.
On offense, 23-year-old running back AJ Dillon could get more playing time in his second year. He had 5.3 yards per carry in limited time last season. Jon Runyan will move into the starting left guard position at the age of 24, while second-round pick Josh Myers could be the starting center as a 23-year-old rookie.
Oh, and there's a 22-year-old quarterback prospect named Jordan Love around here somewhere. But who knows when that guy's ever going to get a chance to play.
25. Philadelphia Eagles
2020 ranking: 29
Blue-chip players: WR Jalen Reagor, WR DeVonta Smith, QB Jalen Hurts
Notable graduated players: ER Derek Barnett
Philadelphia's young talent starts with the "skill position" players, but a couple of those players definitely need to show more production in their second seasons.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts (age 23) didn't have enough pass attempts to qualify for ESPN's official QBR ranking, but his QBR of 41.2 would have ranked him next-to-last. Wide receiver Jalen Reagor (age 22) ranked 83rd out of 87 qualified wide receivers in DVOA. Lining up across from Reagor this year will be Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, also 22 years old. Running back Miles Sanders (age 24) leads the backfield; Sanders had a positive rushing DVOA last year, which given the state of the rest of the Eagles offense was somewhat of a miracle.
Similar to their division rivals in Dallas, the Eagles have a lot of young offensive linemen who got experience due to injuries in 2020 but won't necessarily be starting in 2021. That includes 24-year-old tackle Jordan Mailata, 23-year-old guard Nate Herbig, and 24-year-old tackle Jack Driscoll. They're joined along the line by 22-year-old center Landon Dickerson, this year's second-round pick.
26. New Orleans Saints
2020 ranking: 21
Blue-chip players: G Cesar Ruiz, C Erik McCoy, ER Payton Turner
Notable graduated players: CB Marshon Lattimore
Erik McCoy is 24 and just finished his second season as the center in New Orleans. Cesar Ruiz is 22 and moved into the starting lineup at right guard last year in Week 4. Sports Info Solutions charged McCoy with only one sack allowed in 2020, while Ruiz had zero. And the Saints led the NFL in adjusted line yards on runs up the middle, with these two men leading the blocking.
There's also young talent in the secondary. Nickel defender/strong safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is just 23 and ranked in the top 10 among safeties in both coverage success rate and yards allowed per pass target. Free safety Marcus Williams also technically qualifies for this list, just under the wire; he turns 25 on Sept. 8.
The rest of the Saints' young talent very much represents potential rather than performance so far. This starts with first-round edge rusher Payton Turner, who is just 23 years old. Turner will be competing for snaps with 24-year-old Marcus Davenport, who has never quite lived up to his first-round draft status from 2019 but managed 21 hurries last season on fewer than 400 defensive snaps.
Second-round linebacker Pete Werner is just 22 and will be competing for a job this year with 24-year-old second-year linebacker Zack Baun. Baun was one of three Saints players we included on our ranking of top under-the-radar prospects. You'll also find 24-year-old tight end Adam Trautman and 23-year-old wide receiver Deonte Harris on that list. With Michael Thomas injured for part of the season, Harris will be competing for a starting job with another undrafted 23-year-old receiver who has already earned playing time in the NFL, Marquez Callaway.
27. Seattle Seahawks
2020 ranking: 28
Blue-chip players: WR DK Metcalf, G Damien Lewis
Notable graduated players: SS Jamal Adams, ER L.J. Collier, DT Poona Ford
Wide receiver DK Metcalf is of course a complete dynamo, finishing fifth in receiving DYAR last season with 1,303 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. He turns 24 in December. The Seahawks spent this year's top draft pick (a second-rounder) on another wide receiver, D'Wayne Eskridge, who was the favorite sleeper of our Playmaker Score projection system. However, the 24-year-old Eskridge is nine months older than Metcalf, who's already been in the league for two years.
This gets at the general issue for the Seahawks, which is that their young talent base doesn't have many players below age 23: just backup running back DeeJay Dallas and fourth-round rookie tight end Colby Parkinson. Most of the players who count for this ranking are 24 years old. That includes right guard Damien Lewis, who was a fine run-blocker last year as a rookie but struggled in pass protection; second-round rookie edge rusher Darrell Taylor; and cornerback D.J. Reed, picked up after the 49ers waived him due to an injury. He ranked 22nd in yards allowed per pass target last season and might be Seattle's top corner in 2021.
The top 23-year-old other than Metcalf is linebacker Jordyn Brooks, who will replace K.J. Wright in the starting lineup this season.
28. Indianapolis Colts
2020 ranking: 15
Blue-chip players: RB Jonathan Taylor, ER Kwity Paye
Notable graduated players: G Quenton Nelson, OT Braden Smith, SS Khari Willis, CB Rock Ya-Sin
A lack of recent first-round picks knocks down the Colts in this ranking of under-25 talent, as does the fact that they had so many top players (especially those two offensive linemen) turn 25 in the past 12 months.
The Colts traded down to the second round in 2019 and took the now 25-year-old Rock Ya-Sin; they traded their first-round pick for DeForest Buckner in 2020. So this year's first-round pick, 22-year-old edge rusher Kwity Paye, is the only first-rounder who counts as under-25 talent for the Colts. Paye is joined on the defense by 23-year-old free safety Julian Blackmon, who started 15 games as a third-round rookie a year ago. Blackmon was a willing tackler who showcased his speed and change-of-direction skill but also finished dead last among safeties with 17.9 yards allowed per pass target.
The Colts' offense is packed with young "skill players" who are under 25 years old. They don't have first-round pedigrees, but many of them have second-round pedigrees. That includes 22-year-old running back Jonathan Taylor, who put up over 1,100 rushing yards as a rookie and was also excellent (a top-10 DVOA) as a receiver; 23-year-old wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who was excellent at gaining yards after the catch in his rookie season; and 24-year-old slot Parris Campbell, who had 71 yards in Week 1 last year and then promptly was lost for the season on the first play of Week 2. Quarterback Jacob Eason, who will be starting in place of the injured Carson Wentz for an unknown amount of time, is also just 23 years old.
On special teams, 24-year-old kicker Rodrigo Blankenship finished second in Football Outsiders' place-kicking metric last season, hitting 32 of 37 field goal attempts in his rookie year, although he did miss a 33-yarder in the playoffs.
29. Kansas City Chiefs
2020 ranking: 11
Blue-chip players: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Notable graduated players: QB Patrick Mahomes, FS Juan Thornhill, DT Derrick Nnadi
When the best player in the game turns 25, you're going to drop in a ranking of under-25 talent. That's exactly what happens with Kansas City now that Patrick Mahomes has aged out of this ranking. He does leave behind a few talented young players, but nobody who has yet to start 16 games in a season.
The closest is 22-year-old running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who started 13 games for the Chiefs as a rookie in 2020. You might be surprised to learn that Edwards-Helaire had a below-average DVOA as both a runner and a receiver in his rookie year, pretty tough to do in that Kansas City offense. Mecole Hardman, a 23-year-old speedster, did better in our efficiency stats, although his yards per caption dropped from 20.7 as a rookie to 13.7 in his second season.
The Kansas City offensive line could start two younger players this season, depending on how camp battles work out. Second-round center Creed Humphrey is 22 years old, while possible right tackle Lucas Niang -- a 2020 third-round pick who opted out of his rookie season -- is 23.
Willie Gay is expected to step into a larger linebacker role at age 23, but he'll need to clean up his tackling; his 22% missed tackle rate last season was 92nd out of 112 qualifying linebackers (min. 20 solo tackles). His pass coverage was strong in a limited sample. Also strong in pass coverage in a limited sample was 24-year-old cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, who allowed just 5.1 yards per pass target in the nine games he played in 2020.
And there's even more young talent on the defense if the Chiefs can get something out of former Giants first-round pick DeAndre Baker. Baker, a 23-year-old cornerback, was cut by the Giants because of off-field issues and picked up late in the season by Kansas City, so he played only two games last year.
30. New England Patriots
2020 ranking: 32
Blue-chip players: QB Mac Jones, OL Michael Onwenu
Notable graduated players: OT Isaiah Wynn, DT Byron Cowart, SS Kyle Dugger, CB J.C. Jackson
Mac Jones is the future of the Patriots and he's just 22 years old; he's clearly their most important young asset. After Jones, the best young asset here is one of last year's big surprises: 23-year-old offensive lineman Michael Onwenu. The sixth-round rookie played all across the line. Ranked at right tackle, his most common position, he comes out sixth in snaps per blown block. He'll replace Joe Thuney at left guard this year.
Running back Damien Harris (age 24) is our No. 1 under-the-radar prospect this year. Last season, he ranked 17th in rushing DVOA and 19th in rushing success rate. Jakobi Meyers (age 24) was the only qualified Patriots wide receiver to finish with above-average DVOA last season, and he could be their No. 1 receiver again this season despite the additions of players such as Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Jake Bailey, a 24-year-old punter, made the All-Pro team last season and was No. 1 in Football Outsiders' punting metrics.
The Patriots rank lower in under-25 talent in part because they tend to redshirt rookies, which means there are a lot of players floating around here who haven't done much yet but still have potential. That includes past second-round picks such as 23-year-old cornerback Joejuan Williams and 22-year-old linebacker Josh Uche. This year's second-round pick, 22-year-old defensive tackle Christian Barmore, could see the field more as a rookie. He projects as a strong inside pass-rushing force, although we've only seen it for one year as a starter at Alabama.
31. Los Angeles Rams
2020 ranking: 27
Blue-chip players: SS Jordan Fuller
Notable graduated players: G Austin Corbett
It's hard to rank high in under-25 talent when you go seven years without a first-round pick. The Rams haven't had a first-round pick since they took Jared Goff first overall in 2016, and right now they don't have a first-round pick in 2022 or 2023 because they were included in the trade that sent Goff to Detroit for Matthew Stafford. But the Rams have hit on some lower-round picks, and that keeps them out of the bottom spot in this ranking.
Jordan Fuller started 12 games at safety as a sixth-round rookie last year, and he's still just 23 years old. With mediocre charting stats, Fuller was objectively the weak link of the Rams secondary, but he should grow and play a bigger role this season. Taylor Rapp, a 23-year-old 2019 second-round pick, may be starting beside him.
Another good lower-round pick was 24-year-old David Edwards, a fifth-round selection in 2019. Edwards started 14 games at left guard last season and ranked ninth at his position in snaps per blown block. Bobby Evans, who was taken two rounds earlier in 2019, is also 24 and could be starting at the other guard position this year.
Finally, Cam Akers may be out for the year with a torn Achilles tendon, but he's still just 22 and has two more years under contract. The player replacing him in the lineup, Darrell Henderson, is 24 years old.
32. Houston Texans
2020 ranking: 10
Blue-chip players: None
Notable graduated players: QB Deshaun Watson, OT Tytus Howard, G Max Scharping
Looking at the past four drafts demonstrates why the Texans are in last place in our ranking of under-25 talent.
From the 2019 draft, first-round pick Tytus Howard is now 25. The Texans had two second-round picks, Max Scharping and Lonnie Johnson. They are both now 25. The third-round pick, tight end Kahale Warring, is still 24 but didn't see the field in his first two seasons and now has a grand total of three career receptions.
In the 2020 draft, the Texans had no first-round pick due to the Laremy Tunsil trade. Second-round defensive tackle Ross Blacklock is now 23; he missed his first season and couldn't break into the starting lineup in his second season. Third-round edge rusher Jonathan Greenard is 24 and played only 265 defensive snaps last year with one sack and three hurries.
In the 2021 draft, the Texans had no first- or second-round pick, again due to the Tunsil trade. That means their young rookie talent is highlighted by a couple of third-round picks, quarterback Davis Mills and wide receiver Nico Collins. Both are 22 years old.
We should also mention safety Justin Reid, who hasn't played up to his potential in recent years because of injuries. Reid, now 24 years old, was the Texans' highest pick in 2018 as a third-round selection. They didn't have a first- or second-round pick that year either.
This roster is not in good shape.
Methodology
As is our standard, we have created these rankings based on a combination of factors:
Number of starts made by players under 25 years old
Number of snaps played by players under 25 years old
Quality of play of players under 25 years old, age-adjusted to capture the fact that a 21-year-old player of X ability will likely improve more than a 23-year-old player of X ability and with extra consideration given to Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections
Relative importance of positions, in particular with quarterbacks being more important and running backs, off-ball linebackers, and specialists being less important than other positions
Draft value added in the 2021 draft with extra emphasis placed on the premium picks in the first two rounds
Expected key starters and reserves under 25 years old for teams in 2021
Team track records of talent evaluation and development
Significant injuries or suspensions that will affect the 2021 availability of players under 25 years old
Stats to know
The rankings will frequently reference Football Outsiders statistics that might be unfamiliar to you. Here are definitions of the most frequently cited ones:
DVOA: Defense-adjusted Yards Over Average, a metric of team or player rate of success per play accounting for play context.
DYAR: Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, a metric of total player performance adjusted for the context of his attempts.
Adjusted line yards: A measure of run-blocking weighted by the success of a carries, their game situations, and their quality of opponents.
Adjusted sack rate: A measure of pass-blocking that includes sacks and intentional grounding penalties.
Run stops: Preventions of successful run plays as defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.
Defeats: Big plays on defense, defined as tackles for a loss (including sacks), turnovers, or plays to prevent a third/fourth-down conversion.
Hurries: Instances of a pass-rusher forcing a quarterback to throw the ball before he is ready.
Coverage success rate: Percentage of pass plays a defender prevents a successful offensive play, either through incompletion or interception or a failure to gain 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.
Statistics based on game charting including hurries, blown blocks, and coverage success rate are possible thanks to the collective efforts of ESPN Stats & Information and Sports Info Solutions.
You can learn more about these and other Football Outsiders statistics from this article, the Football Outsiders glossary, or in the newly released Football Outsiders Almanac 2021.