Every year, Football Outsiders puts together a list of the NFL's best and brightest young players. Eighty percent of draft-day discussion is about first-round picks, and 10% is about the players who should have been first-round picks but instead went in the second round, particularly if they were quarterbacks.
This list is about that last 10%. It's a stab in the dark at players who may just come out of the woodwork and surprise you this year.
Everybody knows that Trevor Lawrence and Kyle Pitts are good. There's a cottage industry around the idea of hyping every draft's No. 1 quarterback as a potential superstar. But players don't stop being promising just because they don't make waves in their rookie seasons. This is a list of players who have a real chance to make an impact in the NFL despite their lack of draft stock and the fact that they weren't immediate NFL starters.
Previous editions of the list have hyped players such as Geno Atkins, Grady Jarrett, Chris Godwin, Tyreek Hill and Jamaal Charles before they blew up. Last year's list of players was hampered by the pandemic -- which kept many young players around the league from getting a real offseason to challenge for a job -- but still managed to single out Jamel Dean, Dre'Mont Jones and Chase Winovich as key contributors.
Most of these lists are heavily dependent on the depth of incoming draft classes. For instance, this year's list doesn't have many running backs outside of the No. 1 slot, because most of the eligible players either played right away or didn't have the requisite talent. Last year's list was packed with cornerbacks. This year is heavier on offensive linemen and wideouts after a 2020 draft class that was quite strong on both of them. Check out the bottom of the article for more on our methodology in selecting and ranking the players.
Here are the top 25 NFL prospects for 2021:
Note: Ages are current as of Aug. 1, 2021.
1. Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2019, pick 87 | 251 offensive snaps
It was extremely hard to find anybody talking down Harris, an Alabama back who showcased an advanced skill set in college and came to the Crimson Tide as the No. 1 running back recruit in the nation. Harris was made to split time with Josh Jacobs -- you may remember him from places such as the first round of the 2019 draft -- and still averaged 6.4 yards per carry and rolled in 23 touchdowns in his four-year career.
Harris is not likely to be a three-down, win-your-fantasy-PPR-league guy. He's a between-the-tackles bruiser, and that's why he lasted until the third round. He's built to pound the rock. He did that successfully last year for the Patriots to the tune of a 9.9% DVOA, and the only reason he didn't surpass eligibility for this list for snaps is because the Patriots had problems sustaining that kind of game plan.
We don't think Harris is going to be a superstar, but we also can't rule out that he'll continue to take steps to improve. Bill Belichick noticed, saying of Harris in OTAs: "Damien works extremely hard, all phases and all aspects of his game. Conditioning, training, passing game, protection, route-running. Hard-working kid who tries to do anything he can to help the team." The dreamer comp is Derrick Henry -- that might be a little too aspirational -- but if Harris can trend towards being similar to the back he split time with in his senior year at Alabama, Jacobs, that would be a nice return on a third-round pick.
2. Adam Trautman, TE, New Orleans Saints
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 105 | 393 offensive snaps
After finishing fifth in FCS with 14 touchdowns for Dayton in the 2019 college season, Trautman was looked at as a huge middle-of-the-field target who was going to have to deal with questions about his ability to transition against tougher competition. Running a 6.78-second three-cone drill at the NFL combine -- a 97th percentile result among tight ends -- caught eyes, and the Saints traded up for him in the fourth round.
While Trautman wasn't a superstar in his first season, he produced at a high efficiency when he was actually targeted. Among tight ends with 10-24 targets, Trautman finished with the No. 1 DVOA (39.7%), the highest catch rate (94%) and was second in DYAR (50). While that all sounds good and Saints-y, take a minute to remember that Trautman wasn't playing with in-his-prime Drew Brees. In fact, he was targeted seven times by Taysom Hill instead of Brees. And he still roasted defenders out of the backfield and provided solid blocking.
With Jared Cook released in a salary cap move and Josh Hill retired, the position is wide open for Trautman this year. Nick Vannett was signed, but is more of a blocking tight end. Other than Michael Thomas -- who will miss the early part of the season recovering from surgery -- the Saints don't really have an established wide receiver either, which creates a big target void. If Trautman steps into it with production anywhere near what we saw last year, he could explode early.
3. Justin Madubuike, DL, Baltimore Ravens
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 71 | 260 defensive snaps
If you read the intro, you'll know that one of the most successful brands on the Football Outsiders top prospects list is the undersized defensive tackle.
When most draftniks didn't cite Madubuike for his relative lack of size, that was a tacit admission that this kind of player has been successful and shouldn't be as overlooked as they have been in the past. Madubuike didn't quite hit the Geno Atkins benchmarks as far as athletic ability, but had plenty of overall potential blended with 11 sacks and 23 tackles for loss over his last two years at Texas A&M.
Madubuike was a healthy scratch for the first four weeks of the 2020 season, but a key rotational cog from Week 5 onwards, missing two games for COVID protocols during Baltimore's December COVID scare. Madubuike came alive with a sack, two tackles for loss and a pass defensed in Baltimore's playoff game against the Titans. The Ravens will probably want to see some development from him as a pass-rusher this offseason, but he plugged the run fairly well.
The interior line in Baltimore is by far the oldest part of the team. Calais Campbell is 35, Derek Wolfe 31 and Brandon Williams 32. Madubuike was going to figure to get some extra playing time anyway with Jihad Ward off to Jacksonville, but as the draft came and went with no extra investment, it became clear he's a huge part of Baltimore's plans going forward.
"He played well last year, and I do think he's taken a big step," John Harbaugh said at OTAs. "He dropped to the third round for whatever reason, and we were very, very fortunate and blessed to get him there. The way he played last year to where he is right now is very encouraging. So, I'm excited about him. I can tell you the defensive line is excited about him, too. I saw Derek Wolfe over there celebrating with him a couple times on some things he did well. So, yes -- we're fired up about Madubuike."
4. Logan Wilson, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
Age: 25 | Drafted: 2020, pick 65 | 343 defensive snaps
The first pick of the third round of the draft in 2020, Wilson started seeing heavy snaps in Week 5 but was knocked out of action by a high ankle sprain over the last three weeks of the season. The combination of the slow start and the injury is the only reason he's still eligible for the list. Wilson showcased some intriguing blitz skills and paired a solid athletic profile with a great year as a run defender for Wyoming in 2019.
Bengals middle linebacker feels like a position that has been up for grabs since Rey Maualuga retired and Vontaze Burfict finally stopped getting second chances. Letting Nick Vigil walk in free agency opened up yet another void, and Wilson and Akeem Davis-Gaither were drafted into it without much help. Of the two, Wilson has the skill set to help on run downs more, but the blitzing and coverage skills are solid selling points for Wilson as well.
Cincinnati DC Lou Anarumo was cagey when asked about Wilson entrenching a starting spot in May, but with Josh Bynes gone, it's hard to not read the tea leaves as looking that way. The Bengals barely even have veteran help in camp; the oldest player on the entire linebacker unit is 26-year-old Jordan Evans, a 2017 draftee. Wilson figures to be the best linebacker on the field this year for Cincinnati, with a chance of developing into something between Nick Kwiatkoski and a smaller Dont'a Hightower.
5. Alex Highsmith, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 102 | 437 defensive snaps
Pittsburgh took a bet on Highsmith's ridiculous 2019 season at Charlotte, where he improved from three sacks as a junior to 15 as a senior. Running a 4.7-second 40-yard dash at 248 pounds at the combine, Highsmith was a bit light for the NFL, but he had the combine metrics for which we look. SackSEER, our edge rusher projection system, had Highsmith with a top-10 "explosion index" -- its ranking of a player's athleticism -- in the 2020 class.
Playing behind Bud Dupree and learning for a year was the plan for Highsmith, but when Dupree tore his ACL in Week 12, Highsmith immediately became an almost-every-down player for Pittsburgh. He notched five quarterback hits and a sack in those final five games of the season, but was noticeably absent from the playoff game once the Browns created a massive game-script advantage. He wasn't trusted against the run just yet.
Dupree is now a Titan, so Highsmith's closest competition on the edge is journeyman Cassius Marsh. "I didn't start my first couple of years in college and then ended up starting," Highsmith told reporters in May. "I took advantage of that opportunity. I feel like my opportunity is presented to me, I'm going to take advantage of it. It's exciting. I'm ready for the challenge." Last year wasn't a dominant pass-rushing display -- the NFL isn't Gardner-Webb, it turns out -- but he'll have every chance to put one on this year.
6. Kevin Dotson, G, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 135 | 360 offensive snaps
The first non-combine invitee to be drafted in 2020, Dotson nevertheless had an incredibly successful senior year at Louisiana. He was a small-school standout for a run-heavy offense, and NFL questions persisted around moving up with the competition and his ability to pass set because of a lack of experience there.
Well, it was one season -- and an abbreviated one at that -- but in four starts, Dotson allowed zero sacks and blew zero pass blocks. David DeCastro missed time with an ankle injury in 2020, and the Steelers didn't have the great offensive line you remember creating lanes for Willie Parker. They were abysmal last year, and change was naturally coming.
So they are turning over the entire interior line, essentially handing Dotson a starting job at left guard without a real competition. That speaks to the level of belief they have in him. "The offensive lines of any teams I've been on, we've been able to plug people in and still get the job done. We're going to miss the leadership of [Maurkice] Pouncey, but we have to adjust," Dotson told reporters at OTAs. They're going to need him to be a leader in a hurry.
7. Jordan Elliott, DT, Cleveland Browns
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 88 | 307 defensive snaps
We're weighing a lot of disruption over actual sacks in putting Elliott this high on the list. Elliott had just 5.5 college sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, but he consistently disrupted timing and put pressure on the quarterback by showing lateral quickness and gap-shooting ability. That was the trait that got him in front of everyone's eyes and moved him up draft boards.
The Browns gave Elliott some small roles in packages last season behind Sheldon Richardson. He played more than 40% of the snaps in a game just once all year, and that was in a 38-6 blowout in Week 1. The numbers in and of themselves weren't very encouraging; he had just two hurries and one defeat, but it says a lot that the Browns believed in him all season and didn't hand his job over to someone else.
Both Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi moved on this offseason, leaving Cleveland's interior line in a state of flux. Both Malik Jackson and Andrew Billings are coming off COVID opt-outs, and the only player coming back who played a major role last year is Elliott. "I don't want to be that guy to sit here and sound super excited about everybody," Chris Kiffin, the Browns' defensive line coach, said in a recent interview on Cleveland Browns Daily, "but I'm just telling you, the guy I'm most excited about is Jordan Elliott."
8. Matt Hennessy, C, Atlanta Falcons
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 78 | 225 offensive snaps
Hennessy was an NFL combine darling. He was in the 69th percentile or better in basically every agility metric in the combine -- three-cone drill, 20-yard shuttle, 40-yard dash -- as well as the explosion measured by vertical jump and broad jump. The question with Hennessy was more about how his weight and playing strength would translate to the NFL, as he's fairly scrawny and does not have the arm length that line coaches prefer in the trenches.
In two starts last year, Hennessy did not do a lot to silence those doubters. He was called for four penalties and allowed six blown pass blocks and a sack. Of course, most of his extensive playing time was against the Chiefs and Bucs in Weeks 16 and 17. That meant he was dealing with Ndamukong Suh and Chris Jones. While that's not Aaron Donald, it's not exactly the easy transition you're hoping a rookie to get.
With Alex Mack off to the 49ers, the Falcons sure haven't provided much in the way of competition for Hennessy this offseason. They spent a fourth-round pick on rookie Drew Dalman. OTA talk was promising, with tackle Jake Matthews saying that Hennessy almost communicates too much now. There's no reason why Hennessy can't take the job and run with it.
9. Drue Tranquill, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
Age: 26 | Drafted: 2019, pick 130 | 385 defensive snaps
Tranquill was 13th on our list last year for the exact same reason he is ninth this year: He profiles to be a modern coverage linebacker. He was the PFWA all-rookie team non-returner/kicker special teams player and finished second on the Chargers in special teams tackles. He allowed just two passes during the entirety of the 2019 season that went more than 15 yards, and one of them had him covering Tyreek Hill downfield for reasons that he all but kind of called stupid in discussing them vis-à-vis old defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
What happened last season: Tranquill took five snaps and was immediately lost for the season with a broken ankle. He was rehabbing with an eye towards coming back in the playoffs had the Chargers reached them, but alas, they did not.
With Nick Vigil off the roster, and the development of Kenneth Murray as the first-round pick last season, things are pretty simple for the Chargers. Tranquill and Kyzir White are the other two linebackers on the roster with experience, and Tranquill profiles to stay on the field in nickel. If he can springboard this to a healthy season in Brandon Staley's defense, he's got a chance to skyrocket his perceived value across the NFL.
10. Tyler Biadasz, C, Dallas Cowboys
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 146 | 427 offensive snaps
Coming out of Wisconsin, Biadasz was seen as a no-thrills center prospect. He didn't work out at the combine or at the Badgers' pro day due to injury, but he was flashing all over the tape. You may remember Jonathan Taylor's 2,000-yard seasons -- Biadasz was calling the signals for those, and he did an excellent job on double-teams and keeping his mitts on his defenders.
The Cowboys suffered through some unfortunate times on the offensive line last year. Zack Martin was hurt. La'el Collins was hurt. Tyron Smith was hurt. Most importantly for Biadasz, long-time center Travis Frederick was dealing with Guillain-Barre syndrome. That turnover meant that Biadasz played 99% of the snaps from Weeks 5-8 before a hamstring injury claimed him as well. Biadasz allowed a sack and demonstrated that he's got some pass-protection adjustments to make in the NFL in those five games.
Cowboys players and coaches were raving about Biadasz at OTAs. "He's just figured out everything that he needs to know being the center of the offensive line -- making the calls. He's speaking with more confidence. He's asking the questions that you want a center to ask against certain different things, adjustments, and everything like that, what to do," Collins told reporters. With Joe Looney gone and Frederick retired, there's little on the roster to provide competition for the starting center spot. It's fair to say that the Cowboys are counting on Biadasz.
11. Quintez Cephus, WR, Detroit Lions
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 166 | 365 offensive snaps
A throwback, Cephus is a true outside power receiver. He slipped in the draft partially because of a 4.73-second 40-yard dash, but he also has an outside build at 6-foot-1 and 202 pounds, and he put up 23 bench press reps at the combine. It's very easy to understand this type of player -- it's what D.K. Metcalf would be without game-changing speed. The other factor in Cephus' draft-day drop was his expulsion related to sexual assault charges that he was acquitted of in college at Wisconsin.
Cephus started the first game of Detroit's season last year and posted a respectable 10.6% DVOA over the season despite getting inconsistent playing time. When Kenny Golladay was healthy enough to play, Cephus was an afterthought. But that didn't happen all that often in 2020, and it was a big reason why Golladay was allowed to leave in free agency. Golladay and Marvin Jones both departing left a gaping target void.
Detroit's depth chart at wideout is the major reason Cephus is as high on this list as he is. Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams are the presumed 1-2 punch here. Williams was released by the Raiders, and Perriman is on his fourth team in four seasons. New Lions HC Dan Campbell praised Cephus at OTAs, saying "We all see it. We feel like he's growing right in front of us. That's what you want these guys to do during this time." The opportunity is in front of Cephus for him to find 100 targets this year.
12. Bryan Edwards, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Age: 22 | Drafted: 2020, pick 81 | 259 offensive snaps
A big outside receiver prospect, Edwards was available in the third round despite good speed and an obscenely large target share at South Carolina, mainly on account of drops. Drops are at an interesting point in the NFL analytics spectrum. Obviously, it's bad when a drop happens, but for a receiver to make a drop he has to get to the ball, and Edwards made it to a ton of balls. He also made a number of contested catches that showed that maybe he was worth a second-round pick. That's not how it shook out after the NCAA produced another stellar group of wideouts.
Edwards started the first three games of the season and was a big player in the overall direction of the Raiders' offense, then had an ankle injury take him off the field. When he got healthy, he was mostly phased out of the offense. Despite the injury and getting yanked around by Gruden, Edwards finished third among all NFL wideouts with 10-49 targets with a 36.6% DVOA.
The major concern for Edwards as a prospect is the lesson learned from Ravens wideout Miles Boykin last year: You can be good, but if you aren't a directed part of the offense, it doesn't matter. Raiders wideouts were targeted on a league-low 43.4% of their pass attempts last year, and even with Nelson Agholor gone, John Brown and Henry Ruggs figure to get plenty of outside snaps. Edwards has a good pedigree and showed good results in his small sample of first-year targets. He feels more like a WR4 on this group than someone guaranteed playing time, and that's the major reason he's not higher on this list.
13. Josh Jones, OL, Arizona Cardinals
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 72 | 55 offensive snaps
While he wasn't considered part of the headlining group of offensive tackles in last year's class, Jones was a very common No. 5 behind Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, Mekhi Becton and Jedrick Wills. He was the second-highest rated player on Daniel Jeremiah's 2020 big board that qualified for this list. When we compile this list internally, one thing we rely on is looking at who is highest on a player -- that was almost impossible for Jones because everybody loved him. He came out at Houston as a terrific pass-setter who had some inconsistencies in a few games.
And then he joined the Cardinals, who feel set at left tackle with D.J. Humphries. They also had long-time starter Kelvin Beachum win the right tackle job. Jones played only as a sixth-lineman or temporary swing tackle patch last year, and both players were retained. There's not really an easy projection for Jones to play tackle unless one of those two players gets hurt.
Jones is part of a competition with Max Garcia and Brian Winters at guard going into training camp. The optimism is still there from the Cardinals. GM Steve Keim said at OTAs that "Josh has the ability, in my opinion -- and I know Sean Kugler, our O-Line coach is high on him just from what he has seen this year -- to be able to play not only guard or tackle. We have some positional flexibility there. He has grown a lot over this past season. He's gotten bigger, stronger, which he needed to do. I think he has a really bright future." This ranking reflects the chances that he can be a starting NFL tackle. But it feels weird to send a player with pass sets this good to guard.
14. Zack Baun, LB, New Orleans Saints
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 74 | 82 defensive snaps
Baun was by far the most highly thought-of player on this year's list in the minds of draftniks when the 2020 draft process was happening. He drew Kyle Van Noy stylistic comps as a college player who had success as both an edge rusher and a traditional linebacker. But he's only 238 pounds, and SackSEER saw him as more of a linebacker than a true edge player. SackSEER gave Baun a projection of just 12.6 sacks through his fifth season, citing his injury history, lack of production outside of his redshirt senior season and subpar jumps at the combine.
Sure enough, that's kind of unfolding with the Saints. New Orleans traded up to take Baun and turned him into a linebacker. He spent the 2020 season mostly as a special teamer. He did start the meaningless finale for the Saints against Carolina, but otherwise had no more than 13 defensive snaps in any one game last year. The Saints traded for Kwon Alexander at the deadline last year to further lock Baun out of playing time.
But with both Alexander and long-time coverage linebacker Alex Anzalone departed, the depth chart is pretty simple for Baun. He needs to beat out Florida State second-rounder Pete Werner to become the linebacker next to Demario Davis. "He's someone that has picked things up and, man, you came away from the season feeling real positive about what you're starting to see with a few of those guys, and he's one of them," said coach Sean Payton at OTAs. Certainly you can understand projecting Baun into that role, but he'll have to hold off Werner.
15. Deonte Harris, WR, New Orleans Saints
Age: 23 | Undrafted in 2019 | 235 offensive snaps
Most players that make this list have a ton of pre-draft coverage that makes them easy to understand as prospects. Harris, out of Division II Assumption College, is not most prospects.
There weren't many publicly available scouting reports for him. What is out there is some grainy video of him running punts around a bunch of slow college kids and winning out of the slot as a deep-ball receiver. He also has a physical profile that makes you question whether he can hold up. 5-foot-6 is hard to tackle, but when it gets tackled, bad things usually happen.
As an all-purpose weapon for the Saints, Harris has taken quite a few end-arounds for big gains. He was an All-Pro returner in 2019 and was quite good in that area in 2020 as well. As a wideout, Harris was almost exclusively used on quick outs, screens, or underneath routes to try to take advantage of how slippery he is. He proved exceptional there, racking up 13 missed tackles last season. While we don't have a ton of reps of him getting vertical on the route tree, there was some promise there at Assumption, and he does a good job coming back for the ball and tracking it.
As we noted above with Adam Trautman, there's not a lot of receiving production returning for the Saints this year, especially with Michael Thomas missing the beginning of the season with continuing ankle issues. The target void created may enable us to see a little more of Harris as an outside receiver. That doesn't mean he's going to go Tyreek Hill on the NFL -- very few receivers do -- but the opportunity is there and he's certainly shown he can be a productive part of an NFL offense already. If he's able to take it one more notch up, he can be the successor to the Robert Meachems and Devery Hendersons that popped up on deep shots for the Saints for years. Only, you know, much smaller.
16. Julian Okwara, EDGE, Detroit Lions
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 67 | 69 defensive snaps
Okwara led all edge rusher prospects in 2020's draft with an explosion index of 1.4 per our SackSEER system. Coming off a broken leg in 2019, he missed the combine and then Notre Dame's pro day was cancelled, so those numbers have to be taken with a bit of a grain of salt because we are using hand-timed numbers from Okwara's own personal pro day. ("Your own. Personal. Pro day," as Depeche Mode once nearly sang.) Okwara ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash there and said he ran a 4.53 before the injury. He'd had eight sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss in 13 games in his junior year.
Okwara played the nicest number of snaps last year after going back on IR for another leg injury suffered against the Jaguars in Week 6. He did factor in as a rotational edge player for the last two games of the season, notching a season-best 26% of the snap share in Week 16 against Tampa. There's not a whole lot else to say about his rookie year; it was a shame that it was wasted on the trainer's table.
Okwara's brother, Romeo Okwara, re-upped with the Lions this offseason, and the two have a plan to be bookmark ends. "So I definitely see myself getting double-digit sacks, my brother the same thing. I think that's something that hasn't been done," Okwara told reporters in May. Well, a little someone named Trey Flowers might have something to say about that, but Okwara absolutely has the raw talent to live up to double-digit sacks. Health and opportunity? That we're not so sure about yet.
17. Ashtyn Davis, S, New York Jets
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 68 | 402 defensive snaps
Davis is someone who shined on scouts' boards but also had some health concerns coming out of college, sitting out a bowl game with a groin injury and drawing the vague "medical red flag" from some teams. Davis was a difference-maker at overhang safety with six picks and nine additional passes defensed in his last two years at Cal, showcasing track speed. Cal's pro day was canceled, and Davis did not work out at the combine, but the skills were obvious enough to get him picked near the top of the third round anyway.
Davis took some time to take over at safety but would become a 99% snaps player from Weeks 8-12 before, you guessed it, injury struck. A foot injury sent Davis to IR, and he was lost for the rest of the season. Davis was used in a role that perhaps wasn't the best fit for him, with Marcus Maye entrenched at free safety. Davis defensed just one pass and had the lowest success rate in coverage of any Jets defensive back.
A new coaching staff is in town, and that could mean big things for Davis. Robert Saleh has a pretty stellar recent history as a defensive coordinator. However, Davis didn't show at OTAs or minicamps while recovering from the foot injury, and the team signed LaMarcus Joyner as insurance at safety. There's still a lot of upside here, and we can weigh that against how disappointing last year was, but the history of new coaches working with the previous administration's underused draft picks is not promising.
18. David Long, CB, Los Angeles Rams
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2019, pick 79 | 225 defensive snaps
A second returning player on the list, Long's 2020 opportunity for playing time was swallowed whole by an impressive run from Darious Williams. Not only did Williams take the third corner job, he ran away with it, getting a huge payday in the process. Long started just one game, a 28-17 loss to the Dolphins in Week 8, and allowed a three-yard touchdown to Devante Parker. Still, winning a ball from Parker in tight coverage isn't easy for anybody, and Long was not kept off the field by schlubs -- the Rams had one of the best pass defenses in the NFL last year.
On pedigree, Long came out of Michigan as a true outside corner with his most ridiculous calling card being the 6.45-second three-cone drill time at the 2019 combine. Long had three picks and 12 passes defensed in two years with the Wolverines, with Big 10 quarterbacks all but avoiding him if they could.
Troy Hill fled to the Browns in free agency, and the Rams didn't make any real stabs at replacing him beyond using a fourth-rounder on Central Arkansas corner Robert Rochell. "He's done a great job," Sean McVay said in May. "I think he's really done a nice job elevating his game at the outside location. He has been a guy with some position flex inside, but I think he's really, really done a nice job of growing. He's gotten a lot of really valuable, beneficial reps where you've seen him tangibly improve throughout the course of the offseason because the one thing that we have done full-speed is 7-on-7. He's taken to Coach Evero, Coach Cooley and Coach Morris' teaching progression, understanding concepts better and I've been really pleased with David and he's a guy we're going to count on and we're expecting him to be a big-time contributor for us." Long certainly appears to have the inside track on playing time this year.
19. Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Cleveland Browns
Age: 22 | Drafted: 2020, pick 187 | 268 offensive snaps
Those of you who like raw talent will very much enjoy the Peoples-Jones experience. At 6-foot-2 and 212 pounds, Peoples-Jones profiles as an outside receiver. He ran a 4.48-second 40-yard dash on that frame and added 99th percentile results among wideouts in the vertical jump (44.5 inches) and the broad jump (139 inches) at the combine. He was regarded as an excellent return prospect. As for his skills as a wide receiver, well, he never had more than 612 receiving yards for a run-focused Michigan team and scouts dinged his ability to separate.
Peoples-Jones had a fairly successful rookie season, finishing second among wideouts with 10-49 targets and a 51.9% DVOA on a 70% catch rate. He surged a bit towards the end of the season as well, finishing with 55 or more yards in three of his last four games. It's easy to understand why the Browns would be excited about what he showed in 2020, but with Odell Beckham back, it's also fairly hard to see a clean fit for him in the starting lineup. The Browns received solid work from KhaDarel Hodge last year, Rashard Higgins and Baker Mayfield seem to have a great connection, and they also drafted Anthony Schwartz in the third round. Peoples-Jones may be a returner first this year if everyone is healthy. But he's also so physically talented that it may be hard for the Browns to leave him out of the receiver rotation.
20. Matt Peart, OT, New York Giants
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 99 | 150 offensive snaps
Somewhat of an afterthought in a tackle-rich class, Peart got hit with a critique of "why is a guy this physically talented rated a two-star recruit and sent to Connecticut?" Well, because he's from Jamaica and didn't play football until high school. Peart is a physical dream, with a 6-foot-7 frame and 36 5/8th-inch arm length that is built to be an obstacle. He ran a 5.06-second 40-yard dash with that physique, which would be impressive for any offensive tackle.
The Giants had an interesting offensive line situation last year, right down to firing their line coach Marc Colombo after a verbal spat with head coach Joe Judge. They got players like Peart and Shane Lemieux involved, but also drafted and watched Andrew Thomas struggle. With Kevin Zeitler released and Cameron Fleming not re-signed, there is suddenly a big opening for snaps on the line. Peart had some issues in pass protection last year but was better than expected as a run blocker.
The reason Peart is as low as he is? We can't say from our publishing deadline if he'll win a fair battle against Thomas and COVID opt-out Nate Solder. Both of those guys have massive incentives to play if they are retained. Solder publicly said, "who cares who starts?" after Peart was the first-string tackle at OTAs. It certainly would make sense for the Giants to see what they have, as Solder wasn't exactly great in 2019, but there are more questions here than there are at the top of our list.
21. Devin Duvernay, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 92 | 347 offensive snaps
What Duvernay showed at the University of Texas is the ability to be a gadget wideout around the line of scrimmage. He came out with a strong 1,392-yard season in 2019 after Lil'Jordan Humphrey moved on to the NFL. Some of that was an extension of the running game, and that's definitely Duvernay's calling card. But he also won deep balls, showed NFL-caliber releases and stacked corners fairly easily in college. A 4.39-second 40-yard dash hinted at the upper-echelon speed he could put on the field.
In his first season with the Ravens, Duvernay peaked at about 80% usage as the team dealt with a horrific COVID shortage in early December. Most of the damage he provided was as a kick returner -- his lone touchdown came against the Chiefs in Week 3 on a kickoff -- and otherwise he only had three targets deep and was mostly a screen and quick-move receiver. Duvernay did not break many tackles in space when given a chance, but he also has shown the ability to do that, and it was a small sample of targets.
Unfortunately for Duvernay, the Ravens reinforced wideout pretty heavily this offseason. Sammy Watkins came on as a reclamation project, and the team also drafted Rashod Bateman in the first round. It's hard to see Duvernay growing much out of his 2020 role in 2021 because there are people in front of him. But he does have a little more talent than the 2020 flash might have shown you, and if the Ravens can't get Lamar Jackson a little more focused on the sidelines, Duvernay does profile to be in Jackson's high-usage target areas frequently.
22. Marcus Epps, S, Philadelphia Eagles
Age: 25 | Drafted: 2019, pick 191 | 474 defensive snaps
There are two kinds of prospects that tend to hit the end of this list. There are the ones who have the pedigree but haven't done much yet, and there are the ones without the pedigree who have been showing out whenever they get on the field. Epps is in the latter camp. Yet another Wyoming product, Epps got a priority free-agent grade from NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. He was Mel Kiper's 50th-ranked ... safety. Epps ran a 4.55-second 40-yard dash at his pro day, showing off a nice 6.7-second three-cone drill time as well. He picked off nine balls in four seasons at Wyoming, adding 22 passes defensed and five forced fumbles. But at 6-foot-even and just 191 pounds, size was a major factor in forcing him out of the NFL's upper rounds.
Drafted by the Vikings, Epps was claimed by the Eagles on waivers and used at free safety in December of 2019. Rodney McLeod was ahead of Epps on the depth chart last year, but after a torn ACL in December, Epps grabbed a major share of the snaps yet again by getting at least 56 percent of the snaps in each of Philadelphia's last four games. Epps picked off two passes and defensed four more. And while we wouldn't expect this to last at his size, Epps had the best run stop rate of any Eagles secondary player last year, at 64%.
The Eagles had themselves a Vikings import offseason on defense. They brought in former Vikings defensive backs coach Jonathan Gannon as defensive coordinator, and they added Anthony Harris to the safety equation on a one-year deal. Epps will be battling a 31-year-old McLeod and 2020 fourth-rounder K'Von Wallace for playing time, but he outplayed Wallace last year and has shown the ability to be a versatile middle-of-the-field defender. Don't sleep on his chances of yet again bubbling up to the surface in 2021.
23. Amik Robertson, CB, Las Vegas Raiders
Age: 22 | Drafted: 2020, pick 148 | 35 defensive snaps
When it comes to the Raiders' cornerback depth chart, everyone seems to play poorly, and when Jon Gruden just decides he doesn't like you, you're gone. "The best guys are going to play," Gruden said at OTAs. "I don't care if it's Nate Hobbs or Amik Robertson. I don't care what round they came in. We're going to play the best four or five guys and players will decide that." It was a not-so-veiled message, aimed like a dodgeball at Damon Arnette's head. The former first-rounder has disappointed so far.
We can't write about Hobbs because he's a rookie, but Robertson is an interesting player. Compared to Chris Harris by draftniks, Robertson measured in at 5-foot-8 and 187 pounds at the combine. He played strictly nickelback in college because of his size but finished his collegiate career with 14 picks and 48 passes defensed. That's a hard combination of anticipation and ball skills to downplay considering he only played three years.
Buried on the depth chart in 2020, Robertson provided 23 of his 35 snaps in Weeks 4 and 5 before being a healthy scratch towards the end of the year. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is also reportedly high on Robertson, and as we have learned in the Gruden Vegas era, the depth chart is always up for grabs with one bad impression. Robertson has the talent to stick if he gets the chance to play next to Casey Hayward and Trayvon Mullen.
24. Lucas Niang, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 96 | 0 offensive snaps
Coming out of TCU, Niang was regarded as pro-ready and a "help-now" right tackle prospect by NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. Niang didn't work out at the combine but had 75th percentile or better rankings at 6-foot-6 with 34 1/4-inch arm length and 10 1/2-inch hands. He didn't do any draft workouts after surgery to repair a torn hip labrum but was still considered a top-100 pick and roughly a back-of-the-top-10 tackle by most draftniks.
Certainly you remember what happened to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Niang was supposed to be part of the crew drafted to deal with a potential injury to Eric Fisher or Mitchell Schwartz. But he opted out of the season under the league's COVID plan, something that was rare from players on rookie contracts and particularly so among players who hadn't played an NFL snap yet.
Niang comes back this year, along with Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, to a team that has gone hog-wild on offensive line this offseason. We know that Orlando Brown and Joe Thuney are starting, and Niang is likely battling with Kyle Long and Mike Remmers at right tackle. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid complemented Niang at OTAs by saying "He has these beautiful feet. I look forward to getting him back in the pads at training camp and moving around and doing what offensive linemen do, the real football part of it." There's a lot of missed time to make up for, but Niang has the talent to emerge as a starter from that group.
25. Jonathan Greenard, EDGE, Houston Texans
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 90 | 265 defensive snaps
Greenard transferred from Louisville to Florida and led the SEC in sacks in his senior year in the swamp under former Cardinals defensive leader Todd Grantham. What Greenard lacked in explosion in college, he made up for in heady play. He was perceived by draftniks to have a good grasp of line play, pass rush moves and angles. That elevated him to the Texans in the third round even though his subpar jump numbers left him with a SackSEER explosion index score of -0.8, tied for fourth worst in the class.
The Texans refused to acknowledge the concept of rookies last year as they dug into their nice little resting place at the bottom of the division, with Greenard only seeing elevated playing time in the game at Jacksonville that Whitney Mercilus and Jacob Martin missed due to COVID protocols. Naturally, the Texans won that game, which meant the answer was to go right back to the other outside linebackers on the roster. Greenard only would receive extended playing time again in Weeks 16 and 17 with the season all but over.
What the Texans have done is created a roster so full of mediocre edge rushers that we're really not sure who they'll pick to play. That's the major reason Greenard is as low as he is. He's not a high-ceiling superstar, but Greenard could develop into a positive second- or third-banana edge player with playing time. Do we have any faith that he'll get that playing time on the team that signed Jordan Jenkins and wants to fit Charles Omenihu, Mercilus and Martin into roles? Not a ton. But he deserves the run. Someone on this roster has to be a long-term piece, right?
Methodology
This is the 15th anniversary of the list. We're still relying on the same things we always do: scouting, statistics, measurables, context, ceiling, expected role and what we hear from other sources. The goal is to bring your attention to players who are still developing in their second and third seasons, even after the draftniks have forgotten them. It's important to note that this list is not strictly about fantasy football (otherwise, there would be no offensive linemen on it) and career potential matters. It's not just a list for the 2021 season.
Here's our full criteria:
Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent
Entered the NFL between 2018 and 2020
Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps (except running backs, who are allowed just 300 offensive snaps)
Have not signed a contract extension (players who have bounced around the league looking for the right spot, however, still qualify for the list)
Age 26 or younger as of September 1, 2021
You'll see a number of references to Football Outsiders stats on our list, in particular DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which takes every play and compares its success to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You can read more about DVOA and other FO stats on this page. Many of the other stats, including blown blocks and success rate in coverage, come from Sports Info Solutions and can be found in our new book, Football Outsiders Almanac 2021.