August is nearly here, my friends.
To many, that simply means summer is winding down and "back to school" is on the horizon.
To you and me, it means the heart of fantasy football draft season has arrived.
The purpose of this piece is to take a thorough look at the fantasy landscape and offer tidbits of information that can help you make the best decisions not only on draft day, but in the weeks leading up to Week 1 and throughout the season. The focus will primarily be on average-sized, season-long leagues, but I didn't forget those of you who, like me, are in unique leagues, including dynasty, keeper, superflex and IDP. If you're a regular reader of my work, first of all, thank you. Second of all, this will seem quite different. Instead of going heavy on data, numbers and charts, this is a strategy piece for beginners and advanced players that shows you how I apply all that I've learned during an offseason of research.
Bear with me and I'll cover as many bases as possible in a relatively short amount of time.
The state of fantasy football drafts in 2021
Our quest to identify the perfect fantasy football strategy continues to evolve, but at the end of the day, finding quality RB options remains the most important goal. How exactly you find those quality options remains an industry-wide debate, however, as some will tell you to load up early and others opine that some form of the "Zero-RB" strategy is your ticket to a fantasy title. If you're not familiar, Zero RB is an anti-fragile drafting philosophy that involves not selecting any running backs until at least the middle portion of your draft, instead loading up on wide receivers (and perhaps an elite TE) in the first several rounds.
What do I think? I think that it depends on whom you're drafting with and how your draft is going. That's a bit of a cop out, but it also follows suit with my general drafting strategy of never (OK, rarely) allowing biases, emotion or need to stop me from maximizing value.
An example of this is my squad in the eighth annual MFL10 of Death draft, which went down back in late May. I knew I was drafting with some of the smartest minds in the industry and also knew that many of them were on the "Zero-RB" train, which was sure to mean a heavier dose of wide receivers in the first few rounds. This allowed me to grab Alvin Kamara fifth overall, Nick Chubb 20th, D'Andre Swift 29th, Josh Jacobs 53rd and Leonard Fournette 125th (The first four were picked within the first five rounds). At the time, I picked all five backs later (some way later) than their estimated ADP, so while I'm a step behind at WR (Adam Thielen and JuJu Smith-Schuster are still a decent one-two punch), I built myself a sizable edge at RB and should have a weekly edge in the flex. Will it work? We'll see, but I went in a similar direction in 2020 (four RBs in the first seven rounds) and -- prepare yourself for the first of several not-so-humble brags -- I came away with the title.
OK, so that covers leagues against 11 humans (or perhaps 10 -- Shawn Siegele, the man who popularized "Zero RB," may be a robot) who think about fantasy football year-round, but what about a more casual league? ADP suggests that the recent influx of young talent into the position means leagues will be extremely heavy on RBs in the first few rounds. Recent best-ball ADP shows RBs as 14 of the first 19 picks and 16 of the first 26. In an average 12-team league, 50% of the picks in the first four rounds will be running backs.
So, the question is, do you follow the herd by optimizing your early-season RB situation or zag toward elite WRs and perhaps tight end Travis Kelce? It somewhat depends on where you're drafting in the first round, but the best way to maximize your entire lineup is going to be a mix of both.
If you have the first-overall pick, the right answer is to grab Christian McCaffrey. If you have one of the next few selections, drafting one of the superstar feature backs like Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley makes sense, although it's at this point where you can get creative and take Kelce (more on the TE landscape later). Jonathan Taylor and Ezekiel Elliott are also fine options in the middle of the round, and it's here that it makes sense to get the WR run going with Tyreek Hill or Davante Adams.
The bottom line: In an ideal world, I'm getting at least one star RB early (two if the value is there) and then aggressively attacking the wide receiver position, while also monitoring tight ends.
Let's dive more into that.
This season's RB situation feels unique in that it includes an exciting group of young, emerging backs, but it's also similar to past years in that (a) they ain't cheap, and (b) it gets ugly when they're gone. Put it this way: If you spend only one of your first four picks on a RB, you're likely going to enter the season with an uneasy feeling at the RB2 spot. And, honestly, that's OK. With the well-documented high injury rate at the position, it's more likely than not that you'll be able to fill that spot with a mid-round pick in the short term and a bench stash or waiver add later in the year.
I already talked about the top seven RBs (from CMC as the clear No. 1 to Taylor and Elliott later in the round), but the RB tier that covers late Round 1 and early Round 2 is also very intriguing. It includes Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb and Cam Akers, all of whom are viable RB1 plays. The next tier isn't much worse honestly, with Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson (who I personally think has as high a ceiling as any RB in the league and -- bold prediction alert -- is a sleeper to lead the position in fantasy points in 2021), Najee Harris, D'Andre Swift, Miles Sanders, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, J.K. Dobbins, Josh Jacobs, Chris Carson and David Montgomery. That's 21 backs, 16 of whom were already top-26 fantasy RBs in 2020. It's a lot of talent and should help you understand why drafters are struggling to pass on the position in the first two-to-three rounds.
Another reason for the heavy early-draft run on the position is the RB "dead zone" that has been a popular point of discussion in the industry this year. Once the top group of backs are off the board, it becomes hard to add value to your team by drafting running backs, because of the severe drop-off in talent/situation and because you're passing on reliable, star players at other positions, especially wide receiver.
Consider your current RB options in the fourth and fifth round of drafts: Jacobs, Montgomery, Travis Etienne, James Robinson, Kareem Hunt, Mike Davis, Javonte Williams.
And now your WR options in the same range: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, Julio Jones, DJ Moore, Diontae Johnson, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Ja'Marr Chase, Brandon Aiyuk and Tee Higgins.
I'm not a doctor, but one of those groups seems way more valuable than the other (hint: it's the wide receivers).
And the gap in talent between the two positions only gets wider from there, as the RBs available in the middle rounds fall in the area of a 110-to-150 point projection, while the WRs in the same vicinity are in the 160-to-200 range. You're essentially throwing darts at backs with major roadblocks to success, like rookies Michael Carter and Trey Sermon or backups Kenyan Drake and AJ Dillon, instead of picking reliable WRs like Robby Anderson, Tyler Boyd, DJ Chark, Curtis Samuel and Michael Gallup or high-pedigree every-down youngsters like Jerry Jeudy, Deebo Samuel, DeVonta Smith, and Laviska Shenault Jr. This should be obvious by now, but you shouldn't be targeting RBs at this point in your draft.
State of the Position
That should give you an idea of how to attack the first few rounds of your draft, but let's also do a quick check in on the state of each fantasy position.
Quarterback: Top heavy
It wasn't long ago that a superstar QB like Patrick Mahomes would be a first-round pick in all fantasy leagues. The industry has wised up in that department and casual drafters have caught on as well, with Mahomes now generally picked in the third or fourth round. Drafters are also valuing QB rushing ability appropriately, which has led to a major market correction on the position heading into 2021.
With that in mind, we're now in a situation in which it's no longer a must to wait until the late rounds before drafting a QB. Mahomes is still an expensive investment, but picking the likes of Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson in the fifth/sixth round is justifiable. That's especially the case with the futures of Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson (literally 20% of the QB1 pot in 10-team leagues) in doubt.
That aforementioned "Big 5" holds a pretty nice edge over the field, though the likes of Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson aren't the worst fallback options in the middle rounds. After that group is gone, you can return to fading the position for a while, as there's not a huge gap between the remaining tiers. Sure, Tom Brady and Ryan Tannehill are safe, yet fringe, QB1 options, but both have limitations (no rushing for Brady, run-heavy scheme for Tannehill) and there is a ton of upside and several running QB options later in the draft, including Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones and this year's rookie class.
Running back: Good, actually
Considering the position's rapid turnover and high injury rate, "The RB position looks good!" certainly feels like famous last words, right? As noted earlier, the position includes a lot of star feature backs at the top, and the following few rounds are loaded with young backs (mostly in Years 1-3) who pretty much all have RB1 upside. The quality of depth is most apparent when you consider that David Montgomery (fourth), James Robinson (seventh), Josh Jacobs (eighth) and Kareem Hunt (10th) were all top-10 fantasy RBs in 2020, but are all being drafted after the third round. None are higher than 19th in my ranks. Even the back end of the notorious RB dead zone includes some interesting names like Myles Gaskin and Chase Edmonds. It gets pretty ugly from there, but since we only need roughly 28 or so weekly starting options in 12-team leagues, the health of the position is pretty solid.
Wide receiver: As deep as ever
I touched on the incredible amount of WR depth earlier and I'm not sure I can go much deeper without just listing names. I mean, there are so many quality wide receivers with high-end/breakout upside that you can pick your poison. Let's say it's the middle of your draft and you're eyeing some wide receivers. Perhaps you're big on Trevor Lawrence, so you snag DJ Chark in the seventh round, Laviska Shenault Jr. in the eighth or Marvin Jones Jr. in the 11th. Rookie QBs not for you? No problem. How about one of the Broncos' youngsters, Courtland Sutton (sixth round), Jerry Jeudy (seventh) or KJ Hamler (undrafted)? Worried about that Denver QB situation? Cool. How about Diontae Johnson (fourth round), JuJu Smith-Schuster (sixth) or Chase Claypool (sixth) from Pittsburgh's WR-friendly scheme? Sounds good, but perhaps you're fading Big Ben and the new scheme. You could pivot to one of Miami's new "Big 3," with William Fuller V (seventh round), Jaylen Waddle (10th) and DeVante Parker (10th) all relatively inexpensive. Or maybe you're expecting a Carson Wentz bounce back. How about one of Michael Pittman Jr. (ninth round), T.Y. Hilton (11th) or Parris Campbell (15th)? OK, so I did end up just listing lots of names, but that covered only five of the league's 32 teams! I think you get the gist; the position is loaded with depth.
One warning I'll throw out here is to make sure you're properly identifying viable sleepers. Think about this: 289 wide receivers were picked in the 10 NFL drafts prior to 2021 (2011-20) and only 23 of them finished as a top-30 fantasy WR as a rookie. Of those 23, only one (Tyreek Hill) was picked after the third round. That late-round flier on Lions' fourth-round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown isn't looking so attractive now, eh? Instead of reaching on players with low hit rates, focus on high-pedigree players, especially post-hype, recent early-round picks. Examples of non-rookies include Henry Ruggs III (12th round), Jalen Reagor (12th), Mecole Hardman (11th), Pittman, Campbell, and, in deeper leagues, Van Jefferson (19th), Denzel Mims (15th) and Hamler.
Tight end: Extremely top-heavy ... but trending up
Kelce is on a tier of his own and, as usual, the five-time defending top-scoring fantasy TE is a viable mid-first-round option. Darren Waller and George Kittle are also strong TE1 targets. Those three are all but certified as your elite options at a top-heavy position that drops off quite a bit from there.
That said, the next tier or two of tight ends does have some intriguing options and perhaps even a name or two who could leap into the elite tier in 2021. That group includes Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, rookie Kyle Pitts, underrated Logan Thomas, Dallas Goedert, Robert Tonyan and Noah Fant. You could also make the case for Mike Gesicki, Irv Smith Jr. or perhaps one of New England's duo (Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry). Oh, we also have the second-year breakout tier led by Cole Kmet and Adam Trautman. There is a long list of viable fringe TE1/solid TE2 options this season, but it's important to keep in mind that a lot of these players will produce less than half the points of the top two or three scorers at the position.
D/ST: Same as usual
If you're not streamin', you're not strivin'. I just made that up. Will it catch on? Only time will tell. (It won't.)
Kicker: Same as usual
No, I don't care how much Jason Sanders helped you last year. Don't draft a kicker before the last round. In fact, don't pick one at all unless forced to.
Draft strategy sawdust
Now that we have a pretty good feel for the 2021 fantasy football draft pool, I have a few additional thoughts on draft strategy.
During my draft, I'm obviously keeping track of who I've picked and which positions need filling, but I'm never going to pass on an obvious value, even if it's not a position of need. Rarely do I complete a draft in which there wasn't a point in which a player was plummeting well beyond his ADP and I anxiously awaited my opportunity to pounce.
As luck would have it, an excellent example of this came up in a recent 10-team staff mock draft. I picked ninth and opened with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas and Allen Robinson. I was obviously monitoring my RB options at each spot, including when I was on the clock in the fifth round. My best RB options? Chase Edmonds, Kareem Hunt and Mike Davis. My best WR options? DJ Moore, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay and Tyler Lockett. If you think I forced a RB selection here, you're out of your mind. I went Moore with the goal of continuing to take the best value on the board. I can always work on finding RB values later in the draft and during the season.
You may be wondering why I went Zero-RB with the first four picks and it's for the same reason: value. My best RB options when I took Kelce were Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones. When I took Hill, they were Cam Akers and Joe Mixon. When I took Thomas, they were Josh Jacobs and Chris Carson. When I grabbed Robinson, it was Carson and David Montgomery.
Call me a value-based drafter. Call me conservative. I don't care. I'm happy as long as you can't call me someone who is willfully giving an edge to a league mate.
Passing on value is an obvious recipe for disaster over the long term, but many do it. There are always players like Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, Tyler Boyd or Jarvis Landry who fall too far in drafts. These players aren't new or young or particularly exciting. Eric Decker, Derrick Mason, Pierre Garcon, Golden Tate, Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman come to mind from years past. I always feasted on these players. Look, you don't need a home run with every single pick in order to win the title. You need to get to the playoffs first and, from there, you need a competent lineup and some luck. In order to achieve both, having a few reliable, high-floor starters like Boyd is usually necessary.
Here's something else to think about: I don't think we fully acknowledge as an industry how different our lineups look in the playoffs than they do entering Week 1. And that's why focusing too much on filling out a perfect lineup on draft day isn't as important as collecting the best talent possible. Where is the line? You'll know it when you see it (aka when guys like Thielen and Woods are staring you in the face).
This perhaps isn't the best example, but in the 14-team 2018 FSGA industry league, I drafted for value as usual and ended up with a very Zero-RB-friendly squad. My top RBs after the draft were Marshawn Lynch, Duke Johnson, Kerryon Johnson, Jordan Wilkins, Devontae Booker and Latavius Murray. Zero of those backs were on my roster in Week 16, but I won the championship with Damien Williams, Jaylen Samuels and Elijah McGuire in my starting lineup. How did I win with that trio? Well, by drafting the best players on the board, I also had Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Zach Ertz and Patrick Mahomes (OK, maybe that one was lucky) in the lineup. Had I forced myself to pick early-round RBs over Ertz and that WR core, I doubt I win the title in what is a very competitive league.
The Draft is complete...but we're just getting started
OK, so your draft is in the rear-view mirror. Your team looks great. There's no way you're losing this title. Your work here is done. Right? Wrong.
I'm in a lot of leagues and most are against industry experts, but I'm also in a few long-running, casual leagues with college friends, family and neighbors. In both situations (industry and family/friends), there are extremely active managers and there are extremely lax managers. Some (like me) are rarely content and are tinkering with trade offers and waivers often in order to get one step closer to a title. Others attack waivers only when needed (injury, bye weeks) and are the strongest bet to commit the most heinous act of all -- ignoring trade proposals (more on this later!).
As you might imagine, the active managers win at a much higher rate than the casual ones. Is it possible to simply hit on nearly every draft pick and compete for a league title? Of course. In a high-variance game like fantasy football, it happens.
In fact, that reminds me of the infamous 2007 season in my long-running 16-team, family and friends dynasty league. With zero fantasy football acumen and only Vikings, Patriots and Miami Hurricanes fandom at his disposal (the perform storm, as it would turn out), my brother Matthew drafted Patriots Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Stephen Gostkowski, as well as Adrian Peterson and Kellen Winslow II. So, yeah, the top-scoring QB, WR and K, as well as the WR11 (Welker) and top-five finishers at RB and TE. Matt never (or, at least, very rarely) checked his team and still started 9-0. The funny part of the story was Week 10 when the Patriots were on a bye. Matt, whose team otherwise averaged 105.3 points per week, didn't check his lineup and lost 69-9. Having relied only on his draft while failing to add complementary producers during the season, he inexplicably went on to lose in the semifinals.
On the other hand, my team (this was before my fantasy analyst days, by the way) started 0-7, leading me to shake up my roster with a few trades. I won six in a row, somehow made the playoffs and went on to win the league title. His team was way better, but (a) it's a weekly game and (b) fantasy points come in all shapes and sizes.
Matthew "lucked" himself into a stacked roster, but post-draft negligence cost him what should've been a surefire league title. How do you avoid a similar fate? Let's take a look at strategies you can use on the trade and waiver market.
Trading
What better way to kick this section off than another real-life example from one of my long-running dynasty leagues?
Some quick background: it's a 12-team, PPR, non-superflex league in which we can roster 26 players, nine of which are starters (1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 5 flex).
I entered the offseason with a very good roster and as the defending league champ (another humblebrag), but I also was overloaded at QB: Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz and Taysom Hill. I knew that I had to unload several of these QBs in order to clear roster spots of unnecessary depth while also adding talent at other positions. Leading up to our rookie draft in June, I made the following trades:
• Traded Chris Carson, Carson Wentz, 2021 rookie pick 2.8 (Dyami Brown) and a 2022 first-round rookie pick for George Kittle and a 2022 third-round rookie pick.
• Traded Jalen Hurts and 2021 rookie pick 2.12 (Chuba Hubbard) for Henry Ruggs III, Parris Campbell and a 2022 fourth-round rookie pick.
• Traded Ryan Tannehill and a 2022 third-round rookie pick for Brandin Cooks and a 2022 fourth-round rookie pick.
That will do the trick. I still have Herbert and Prescott at QB, Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon at RB, Kittle as a major edge at TE, and a WR room led by Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, DJ Chark, Michael Gallup and Jarvis Landry, and that also includes a ton of young depth thanks to the above additions.
Did I just write all this so I can gloat over my loaded squad? Absolutely. But I also posted it as a lesson: Team building -- whether it's a season-long, dynasty or keeper -- is an ongoing process. You'll rarely be quite this stacked at one position in season-long leagues, especially with smaller rosters, but you will almost always be better at one position than you are another. Many fantasy managers don't maximize their chances at a league title because they are content with their roster and are afraid to shake things up with a trade (more on overcoming this fear later). Especially as bye weeks begin to dry up and your playoffs draw near, it's important to focus on maximizing your starting lineup. If, for example, you're shaky at WR, but have four quality RBs, you're just hurting yourself by not shopping around.
Trading in fantasy is one of the most bizarre aspects of the game, as most managers seem to either be extremely aggressive or extremely quiet in the department. If you've been playing against the same league mates for a long time, I imagine you could place each of them in one of the two categories within seconds of contemplation. Understanding the philosophy, tendencies, skill level, etc. of your league mates is an edge you can utilize when evaluating the trade market. For example, let's say I was holding the first overall pick in a rookie draft this season. I'd have Ja'Marr Chase all but locked in as my selection. However, along the way, I observe that someone in my league is willing to pay almost any cost for Kyle Pitts. I'd be crazy not to reach out to that manager to see how much he'd offer (this is based on a true story, as in one of my competitive dynasty leagues, a savvy fantasy analyst traded three first-round rookie picks for Pitts).
There are countless ways in which knowing your league mates can help your cause and sometimes it's as simple as identifying which ones respond and which ones don't. Or which ones are open to trading and which ones are afraid to make a move with a crippling fear of the possibility that it won't work out (this is very real and these managers overvalue their players so much that it's not worth your time to even negotiate).
I mentioned that managers are generally either aggressive/active or conservative/quiet on the trade market and I'm, without question, the former. I love trading. I love throwing out offers. I love fielding offers. The only thing better than a "Trade Proposal" alert is a "Trade Accepted" alert. I throw out trade offers because I enjoy the negotiating process, but as the commissioner of several leagues across multiple sports, I also like to try to inject activity into my leagues. Perhaps my offer gets declined, but now that manager is on the league page and perhaps he counters, makes a waiver move, or makes an offer to someone else. An active league is a great league.
One drawback to throwing out trade offers is that you're sure to rub some people the wrong way. The fun of fantasy is that we don't all value players the same way. Unfortunately, it's very easy for managers to become offended -- sometimes infuriated -- if they feel you're trying to rip them off. Sometimes this person will simply ignore the offer, others will reply with an "LOL" and others will lose his/her cool and go on an expletive-laden tirade in the league forum or group chat. We've all seen it and I'm asking you right now -- please don't be that person.
Look, if someone keeps sending you "Gus Edwards and Durham Smythe for Calvin Ridley" offers, fine, I get the irritation. But, in most scenarios, even if you don't like the offer, it's not hard to understand where the other guy/gal is coming from. Even if I get an offer I'm not even considering, I'm excited by the idea of someone being open for business. If someone is higher than I am on a player on my roster, perhaps I can take advantage with a counter offer and improve my squad. Also, my first offer is rarely my best offer. I mean, why would it be? That's negotiating 101. Your first offer should be fair and sensible, but it can also be a starting point. How many of you have thrown out an initial trade offer that gets accepted within minutes? Your initial reaction is almost always: "Oh no! What have I done?! Did I just rip myself off?!" We've all been there.
To wrap up on the trading topic, here are a couple tricks I use when making/considering offers:
1. When making an offer, don't just consider what the other manager can do for you. Look closely at his/her roster and see if there is a void you can fill. Referring back to my trio of QB trades, I identified the manager who owned Brandin Cooks as one with a major void at QB and good depth at WR. It made him a natural trade partner and, sure enough, we worked it out painlessly. If he had Patrick Mahomes on his roster, there's no way he's making that deal.
2. Put yourself in the other manager's shoes. This relates to my first point, but focuses more on the "fairness" of your offer. Once you have a trade proposal in mind, flip the script, imagine you're on the other side of it and think about if you'd accept, consider or laugh off the offer. If it's the latter, adjust the deal. If you think you'd at least consider it, hit that "send" button, baby!
3. Cure crippling trade fear with this simple trick! This is like clickbait, except you just have to keep reading for the payoff. I have a good friend in the fantasy industry who straight up admits that he's afraid to make trades. Even if he likes the deal, he dreads the thought of making the wrong decision and it backfiring. Perhaps to some extent, we all deal with that a bit. You certainly don't want to do something you regret. Fortunately, there's a trick I use that calms any trade anxiety pretty quickly: Flip the players. If someone offers you "Player A" for "Player B" and you can't decide what to do, imagine you already had "Player A" and he was offering you "Player B". Would you accept the deal now? I realize how simple and pointless this may seem, but it's no secret that we're all guilty of overrating our own players. In fact, it's human nature. Specifically, it's a cognitive bias called the endowment effect, in which we value an asset higher when it's in our possession than we would if it wasn't. I use the strategy of swapping the players in my head before deciding on pretty much any offer I receive and I absolutely recommend it, especially if you're afraid of the "accept" button.
4. Don't get mad about trade offers. I already talked about this earlier, but I'm reiterating. This drives me nuts. Even if you don't like the offer, just be happy you have someone in your league unafraid to keep the league active by making offers.
5. Pick your spots. We've all been there. A top local beat writer tweets that "Player X" is unstoppable in camp and it looks like he's in line for a breakout. The initial inclination will almost always be to make a trade offer for that player, but now is not the time. Even if you're buying the hype, wait a week or so until the industry is buzzing about someone else before making the move. On the other hand, if there's a negative report on a player and you're not buying it, now is the perfect opportunity to make an offer.
Waivers
I'm not going to lie, waivers can be a tedious process when you manage 16 fantasy football teams like I did in 2020. And yet I still put the time into making claims in every single league. Why? Because, if I don't, I'm putting myself at a disadvantage. Every single week, there is at least a player or two on waivers who is well worth adding to your roster, if not your starting lineup (one big injury can really shake things up in a hurry). And that goes for the weeks leading up to the season, as well.
One of the ways managers ended up stacked at RB last season was by snatching James Robinson off waivers. Once Leonard Fournette was cut loose, it was a mad dash to the free agent list to take a flier on the likes of Robinson, Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo. I had some exposure to all three and, while only one worked out, it worked out in league-winning fashion, whereas all I lost by stashing Ozigbo and Armstead for a few weeks was an end-of-bench stash. Granted he was injured down the stretch, but Robinson was one of the most valuable players in fantasy last season, as he went from undrafted in most leagues to immediate RB1 status. Just how valuable was he? An almost-unbelievable 67% of playoff teams across ESPN leagues had Robinson on their roster. It's those types of players who get you a gigantic edge on your league mates and you're simply playing at a disadvantage if you fail to remain active.
Beside the common sense "drop my worst player and add the best available player" waiver strategy, one trick you can use during the season is to drop your kicker and/or defense and instead hold a skill position player for a few extra days. In fact, as someone who often streams both positions, I'll just straight up drop my kicker and D/ST in order to add to the available player pool, which slightly increases my chances of getting who I want off the wire.
For example, let's say I use the San Francisco 49ers' D/ST in Weeks 1-2 against the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles this season, but have no interest in using it against the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals the following three weeks. I'll cut bait right away on Tuesday. This way, one of my league mates might place a claim on the 49ers' D/ST instead of a free agent I have on my radar.
And in this scenario, unless there is an available D/ST with a terrific short-term matchup, I'd likely use the roster spot on a skill position player in an uncertain situation heading into the week. Let's say Clyde Edwards-Helaire hurt his toe two days earlier and is questionable for the upcoming week. Instead of grabbing a dime-a-dozen D/ST, I'll go after Darrel Williams. If CEH plays, I just cut Williams for a defense on Sunday. If CEH is out, I just found myself a starter and can cut someone else for a D/ST. I most certainly use this "hack" more often with my kicker slot, since we know there is a ton of randomness with that position. As long as you remember to check your lineup Sunday morning, the strategy is a no-brainer.
Oh, and I recommend this during the period between your draft and the start of the season, too. Even if forced to draft a kicker and D/ST, I'll just drop them (assuming league rules allow it) and instead grab a high-upside insurance RB or other skill position player to keep rostered until closer to Week 1. There's very little to lose and quite a lot to gain (speaking as someone who dropped Chris Boswell and added James Robinson in the week leading up to Week 1 last season). By the way, I've used Robinson as an example a few times, but he's not alone: There are players like him available late in drafts or on preseason or early-season waivers every single year. Last year, for example, it cost you little (or in most cases, nothing) to get your hands on Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers (remember, he went undrafted in shallow leagues), Mike Davis, J.D. McKissic, Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins, Logan Thomas and Robert Tonyan. If you're active, you can butcher your draft and still claw your way to a title.
All leagues are not created equal
A lot of what I just laid out will apply to most of you, but I realize leagues come in all shapes and sizes. In fact, I know this better than most, as none of the 16 teams I managed in 2020 (not to mention dozens of Best Ball and mock drafts) are exactly the same, with a steady mix of season-long, dynasty, keeper, IDP, super-deep lineups and/or very creative scoring (one league even has punters!).
Anyway, folks often ask about how to adjust strategy based on these leagues, so while this isn't the place to get too into the weeds, here are ways I adjust my strategy based on format.
Dynasty leagues
As much as I enjoy a good season-long draft, there is nothing I love more than dynasty leagues. It's the closest you can get to playing the GM role, as you retain your assets year to year and can make moves at nearly any point on the calendar. There are few better feelings in fantasy than hitting a home run on a rookie pick (just ask those who spent a late first-rounder on Justin Jefferson last year) and the season never ends. Sure, it stinks to have a bad team, but if you fall out of contention in dynasty, the offseason begins and you can immediately begin making trades and waiver moves to set yourself up for future success. As odd as it sounds, sometimes that can be more of an enjoyable ride than a stressful playoff run. And when it eventually leads to a title? Again, there are few better feelings in this game.
The best general advice I can give as it pertains to dynasty is to consider perceived value. Dynasty managers love unproven youngsters and first-round draft picks way more than they like established veterans, excluding obvious superstars in their early prime. We get bored with guys who just get the job done year after year, and we are easily distracted by the shiny new toy.
You can and should take advantage of this and one way to do that in a start-up draft is to go extremely young at the expense of winning in the short term. That may seem counterintuitive to what I just said, but bear with me. Aim for 20-to-24-year-old players (adjusting slightly by position) and do your best to fade everyone else. Not everyone you pick will pan out, but enough will and within a year or two, your roster should be peaking while the managers who drafted depreciating assets will be fading. Odds are, your slow start will also allow you another potential superstar via an early pick in the Year 2 rookie draft. It's at this point that you should have a good, deep roster of young players entering their prime and also an extremely attractive roster on the trade market. Remember my QB-heavy team from earlier? Prior to my 2020 championship run, my roster was talented, young and deep, which allowed me to make a push for one more superstar. I traded Terry McLaurin (albeit reluctantly), Raheem Mostert and a pair of future second-round picks for Davante Adams. That was fair market at the time and proved to be a title-winning move.
Speaking of dynasty trades, don't be afraid to trade rookie picks. I swap them often, especially if it lands me an established good player. We tend to overestimate the hit rate of rookies (like it or not, a lot of the rookies you're excited about right now heading into 2021 will bust) and, as long as the player isn't "too old," turning what is essentially a lottery ticket into a weekly starter should be a no-brainer. I'm especially aggressive trading away picks if I expect my team to be good (my picks would, in turn, be late in the round the next year).
Keeper Leagues
Prefer season-long leagues, but hate the feeling of not getting to hang on to that amazing, late-round home run pick you made for multiple years? A keeper league is your new best friend. It's hard to give detailed advice here, as keeper leagues are known for having all kinds of rules and regulations pertaining to whom you're allowed to keep, how many players you can keep and, in many cases, which picks you must surrender in order to keep players. That said, I get a lot of keeper questions and usually they are incredibly easy to answer. Look, if you're able to keep only a player or three, you're basically playing in a season-long league and should thus keep the players who help you in the short term, adjusting only slightly for age. The best advice in these scenarios is to consider ADP. A realistic question I get is something like "Should I keep Stefon Diggs for a second-round pick or Justin Herbert for a 15th-round pick?" Obviously Diggs is the better asset, but his ADP is in the second round, whereas Herbert's is roughly in the seventh round. In this scenario, you obviously keep Herbert and you'll still get a player similar to Diggs (if not Diggs himself) when you're on the clock in the second round. I can't stress enough how easy it is to make keeper decisions simply by considering ADP.
IDP
There are some hardcore, serious IDP leagues out there, but I'd guess that most of you who are in a league with defensive players have a fairly normal set of starting slots at the offensive positions and then something in the range of one to six IDP starters. In this scenario (and assuming default scoring), you simply don't need to value defensive players very highly in your draft or on the trade market. Sure, a standout linebacker like Darius Leonard can give you an edge and has mid-round value, but since IDP scoring is generally a step or two below offense and because you're likely only starting one or two players at very deep positions, you're going to have plenty of good options, both during the draft and on waivers during the season. Also, casual players know offense significantly better than defense, so identifying and finding good starters will generally be easier. In a nutshell, in leagues with fairly basic IDP settings, you should focus on offense first and worry about IDP later. You can find our latest 2021 IDP rankings right here.
Superflex
If you're not familiar with superflex, it means that your starting lineup includes a flex spot that can be filled with a quarterback. Because the worst starting QB option in a given week is generally going to be projected to outscore the best flex options, this means that each team in your league will ideally be starting two quarterbacks. Needless to say, QB is significantly more valuable in this format. You should move all quarterbacks up your draft board and you should plan to roster an extra player or two at the position, as starting two good QBs each week needs to be your primary goal. Whereas top QBs Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson are picked in the fourth-to-sixth-round range in one-QB leagues, you can expect all six to be off the board in the first round of superflex leagues.
Knowing that the early QB run will lead to stars at other positions falling in the draft, my goal is almost never to open a superflex draft by picking two QBs. Instead, I'll aim for one star QB and then grab an elite back or perhaps wide receiver. Once the initial rush of QBs ends, it tends to quiet down significantly for several rounds, so I simply monitor the situation and eventually pounce on a good QB2 (generally one in the 10-to-18 range) when the opportunity presents itself. I also make sure to grab either a reliable or upside third QB once the starters begin to dry up. You have to be careful to walk the line of not reaching too early and jeopardizing the rest of your roster, while also not getting stuck with a really poor QB situation that handcuffs you all season long. In a perfect world, I have a very good QB1, a reliable QB2 (guys like Kirk Cousins and Ben Roethlisberger are perfectly reasonable QB2 targets) and someone with upside (last year this would've been someone like Justin Herbert and this season you'll want someone along the lines of Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa or any of the first-round rookie QBs).
6-point pass TD
I quickly want to touch on leagues that award six points for a passing TD, as opposed to the standard four points. Honestly, I don't adjust too much for this. As a whole, quarterbacks are more valuable, but there is still sufficient depth at the position, so we don't need to move them significantly up our ranks. The key is bumping up QBs projected to throw a lot of touchdowns at the expense of quarterbacks who do a lot of damage with their legs. The likes of Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts take a hit, whereas Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger get a boost. A quick scan over projections and/or actual output is your friend here.
TE premium
Leagues that award 1.5 or even 2.0 points per reception to tight ends are becoming more popular and have been common in high-stakes leagues for many years. It makes sense when you consider that the No. 3 TE in 1.0 PPR leagues last season (Logan Thomas) scored 177 points, which would've ranked 38th at wide receiver, 22nd at running back and 25th at quarterback. In a 1.5 PPR TE premium league, Thomas would've scored 213 points, which would've ranked 24th, 11th and 21st, respectively. Perfect? Perhaps not. Better? Of course. In this format, you could make a case for Travis Kelce as the first overall pick in your draft (he outscored every non-QB other than Alvin Kamara in 2020) and the likes of Darren Waller and George Kittle leap into the second-round mix. Considering the big drop-off in projected output after the top few tight ends, it makes sense to target one of the "Big 3." If you miss out, attacking the next tier (Andrews, Hockenson, Pitts, Thomas, Goedert, Fant) becomes a must. You should also make it a priority to stash a tight end with breakout potential and/or upside on your bench (Trautman and Kmet come to mind).
Punters
Just kidding. Or am I? I'm targeting Jack Fox (Lions) and Cameron Johnston (Texans).
Final Thoughts
There's not much else I can add here that I haven't said already. When it comes to the draft, know your league settings, have a good set of rankings, be aware of ADP and don't pass on obvious values. Once the draft concludes, be active. Monitor NFL news and be ready to make savvy waiver moves and trade offers while loading your bench with upside. That may sound overly simplified, but like almost anything else in life, hard work will pay off in the long run (He's lying. Never hustle -- Edited by Berry, Matthew).