NFL training camps begin this week, which means the focus turns to the field. But there is still much off-field business to be done before the start of the 2021 season, and each year that business includes contract extensions for teams' key players.
Whether it's a young quarterback getting paid big money for the first time, an offensive or defensive lineman elevating the salary ceiling for his position or just an important player the team wants to lock up before he gets too expensive, the NFL is dotted with players for whom the two months between now and the start of the season could be extremely rewarding.
A few factors make this year's crop of potential contract candidates interesting. First, there were six designated franchise players who didn't get extensions before the July 15 deadline, which means all six will be eligible for unrestricted free agency next spring. The potential for, say, Washington's Brandon Scherff to reset the offensive line market after playing on two straight franchise tags could prompt a team to extend its star offensive lineman before the price goes up.
Second, the salary cap dropped this year as a result of NFL revenue losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This has forced every team to recalibrate its contract plans and should continue to affect the timing and structure of deals done this summer. It's possible a team might be more inclined to extend a player for the purpose of dropping this year's cap number or next.
And third, due to the shortened preseason, some teams will have two full weeks between their final preseason game and their first regular-season game. It's possible that could provide more time to negotiate some deals that otherwise might have dragged on into the season.
All of that said, we wanted to take a look at some of the players who could be in line for big extensions between now and the start of the season, and what type of money each could get. Please bear in mind that this is not intended as a comprehensive list and, if your favorite player isn't on it, that's not because we don't like or respect your favorite team. We're trying to hit some of the more notable names. Let's start with some of the big-money guys:
The Class of 2018 quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Josh Allen, Bills
Baker Mayfield, Browns
Of the five quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2018 draft, these are the three who are still with the teams that drafted them. Having played three years, they are now eligible for extensions. Their teams don't have to extend them; all three had their fifth-year options picked up, so the teams have control of them through 2023 and could franchise them in 2024, 2025 and 2026 if need be. But recent history (Carson Wentz and Jared Goff in 2019, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson last year) shows teams extending their star quarterbacks at the first opportunity, and it would be surprising if these three didn't follow suit.
Industry buzz seems to think Jackson will not only sign first but get the biggest deal of these three, since he's the one with an MVP trophy he can wave in his team's face at the negotiating table. Jackson is working without a traditional agent, which throws at least some uncertainty into the issue. But the Ravens have made it clear they want to keep him and understand what it'll cost. It wouldn't surprise people around the league if Jackson's deal came in behind Mahomes' $45 million-a-year average and ahead of Prescott's $40 million, but as always, the key will be to watch the structure and guarantees.
Allen will surely be watching the Jackson negotiations, and it probably makes sense for him to wait for Jackson's deal to be done and slot in right behind it. (He surely wouldn't mind topping it, but again, no MVP trophy yet.) Mayfield is likely in a lesser contract category (as symbolized by the fact that his 2023 option number is $18.858 million while Allen's and Jackson's is $23.106 million), but should be able to come in ahead of the $32-33 million range in which Goff and Wentz landed two summers ago.
One potential factor to watch here: Part of the reason the Rams and Eagles moved so quickly to sign Goff and Wentz two years ago was their (correct) belief that the quarterback market would spike the following summer with the Mahomes and Watson deals. At this point, next summer doesn't appear to carry the same kind of threat. Kyler Murray is the only QB who looks like he might put himself in line for a big extension next summer, unless Daniel Jones has a big year with the Giants. So if, say, Mayfield is asking for more than the Browns want to pay, they could potentially gamble and wait without fear of the price going through the roof a year from now. Not saying they will, just that they could.
Potential market-setters at other positions
Quenton Nelson, G, Colts
In a lot of ways, this is the big one. Nelson is the only member of the 2018 draft class to have made all three Pro Bowls since being drafted, and he has also been named first-team All-Pro in each of his first three seasons. Hall of Fame running back Barry Sanders is the only other player in the past three decades to be named first-team All-Pro in each of his first three seasons.
The question is not whether Nelson will set a new salary bar for interior offensive linemen, because he surely will. The question is whether his inevitable new deal lands him in the $20 million-plus-per-year range along with top-paid tackles Trent Williams, David Bakhtiari and Laremy Tunsil. Williams in March signed a deal with the 49ers that included $40.1 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Davante Adams, WR, Packers
In case you hadn't heard, the Packers have other issues they're dealing with at the moment. But their No. 1 wide receiver is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season and has performed in a manner deserving of a top-of-the-market salary.
Four wide receivers have deals that average $20 million or more a year, with DeAndre Hopkins the high-end outlier at $27.25 million and Julio Jones coming in second at a likely more attainable $22 million. Can the Packers, who face major cap challenges not just this year but also in 2022, afford to put Adams in that class? Or is he in line to be an ultra-hot free-agent commodity next spring at age 29?
T.J. Watt, EDGE, Steelers
With 42.5 sacks over the past three seasons, including an NFL-leading 15 in 2020, Watt has surely outperformed the $10.089 million he's scheduled to earn on his fifth-year option this year. The Steelers aren't about to risk losing him, even with cap issues of their own and fellow defensive star Minkah Fitzpatrick also in line for a new deal.
Is it possible that Watt challenges Joey Bosa's $27 million-a-year figure and further narrows the salary gap between the league's highest-paid pass-rushers and its highest-paid passers?
Darius Leonard, LB, Colts
Roquan Smith, LB, Bears
San Francisco's Fred Warner started a potential run on top linebacker contracts Wednesday, when he signed a five-year extension worth an average of $19 million per year, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. That surpasses Bobby Wagner's $18 million average, which had been the standard for inside linebackers.
Leonard looks likely to pass Warner in short order, and Smith could land in the same neighborhood. It's not a position at which teams have historically been inclined to spend big, and these teams do have other big spends to think about. But these are vital pieces of their defenses and players whose organizations have incentive to keep around for a long time.
Jessie Bates, S, Bengals
Jamal Adams, S, Seahawks
Bates and Adams are different types of players, but for various reasons these two should be eyeing the top of the safety market, which is currently Denver's Justin Simmons at $15.25 million a year. It's hard to predict what the Bengals will do from a spending standpoint on any of their players, but Bates is the kind of player you keep around.
And given what the Seahawks gave up to acquire Adams -- two first-round picks -- they almost have to pay him whatever he wants.
More players who could get extensions
Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
A vital piece of the Ravens' passing attack, Andrews doesn't have the numbers to challenge George Kittle and Travis Kelce at the top of the tight end market but still should be able to pull in $11 million or more a year at a position whose market value is slowly starting to rise.
Denzel Ward, CB; Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
Two other stars from the Browns' 2018 draft class are in line for extensions, with Chubb's the most pressing since he wasn't a first-round pick and therefore doesn't have a fifth-year option. Running backs have a hard time getting paid in this league, but deals like the ones Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara got last summer offer a template for the Browns and Chubb to get something done.
Jonathan Allen, DT, Washington
Like the 49ers before them, Washington has some big decisions coming in the next couple of years on which of its star defensive front seven players it can and can't keep. Allen is first up for a new deal, and whether the team does one (and what it looks like) could offer some clues about their future plans for players such as Daron Payne and Montez Sweat.
Braden Smith, OT, Colts
Indy's right tackle has been a reliable part of its stellar line play and could be eyeing the recent right tackle deals done by Ryan Ramczyk and Taylor Moton as a guideline for his next big payday.
The Colts have a lot of guys to take care of, which is why they always leave themselves plenty of cap room. They have $101 million in cap space in 2022, according to Roster Management System.
Stray thoughts on a few other players
Would the Giants do a Saquon Barkley deal now, or do they need to see him healthy? He said Monday that he might not be ready for Week 1.
How do the Bucs value Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette in an always-complicated running back market? Jones was a second-round pick in 2018 but is now behind Fournette, who signed a one-year deal in March, on the depth chart.
If the Packers are struggling to sign Adams, would they give lesser (but still good) money to Allen Lazard and/or Marquez Valdes-Scantling?
Speaking of wideouts, who bites first from the 2018 first-rounders? DJ Moore in Carolina or newly minted No. 1 WR Calvin Ridley in Atlanta? Does Denver want to pay Courtland Sutton yet? Do the Chargers plan to keep Mike Williams around long term? What does the new Jacksonville administration have in mind for DJ Chark?
Mike McGlinchey (San Francisco) and Brian O'Neill (Minnesota) could join the parade of newly paid right tackles before long.
The Rams put a first-round tender on restricted free agent Darious Williams in March, which tells you they value him highly. He could be in line for a sneaky-good cornerback deal.
There's no guaranteed money left on Derek Carr's deal with the Raiders. Would they extend him, or does Jon Gruden have his eye on next spring's intriguing-looking veteran QB market?
Orlando Brown Jr. wanted out of Baltimore because he felt he was a left tackle stuck on the right side. Do the Chiefs need to see him play a year at left before paying him?
The Cowboys had players on this list every year. But with Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott and DeMarcus Lawrence all signed long-term (and given the way the team played last season), there aren't a ton of obvious candidates in Dallas. Maybe guard Connor Williams?
Kickers are people too, and Younghoe Koo has been a good one for the Falcons -- just sayin'.