The NFL's new 17-game regular season means statistical leaderboards are going to reach new heights in 2021 and beyond. More passing yards, more touchdowns, more sacks, more everything.
Though this will inevitably lead to record-breaking statistical showings by rookies, we also need to keep in mind that first-year players tend to experience a learning curve. So who will stand out? Which newly drafted players will lead the pack in major statistical categories? How many yards should we expect to see from No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence, which of the talented receivers in the class will have the most production and who will pace all rookies in sacks?
Let's take a look at the top five projected leaders among rookies in a variety of categories for the 2021 season. These team and player projections are my own, compiled through a thorough process that is both quantitative (league, team, coaching and player trends) and qualitative (projected depth chart placement and role). And for full statistical outlooks, you can head over to our projections page to sort and filter through the entire league. I update them often leading up to the start of the season.
Jump to:
Passing | Rushing | Receiving | TDs
Interceptions | Sacks | Tackles
Passing yards and touchdowns
1. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 4,269 yards, 23 pass TDs
2. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 3,993 yards, 20 pass TDs
3. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 3,187 yards, 18 pass TDs
4. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: 2,464 yards, 16 pass TDs
5. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 1,410 yards, 7 pass TDs
This is certainly driven by the number of projected starts for each quarterback. I have Lawrence and Wilson projected as Week 1 starters, with Fields taking over for Andy Dalton in Week 4, Lance overtaking Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 8 and Mac Jones relieving Cam Newton in Week 12. Of the 34 first-round quarterbacks drafted during the 2010-20 seasons, 24 took over as starter by Week 4 and only seven had to wait until after Week 8.
Lawrence's total would rank third highest for a rookie since 2010, trailing only Andrew Luck (4,374) and Justin Herbert (4,336). Of course, Lawrence gets to play an extra game and is likely to be throwing often as Jacksonville rebuilds its defense. It's worth pointing out that Joe Burrow was on a 17-game pace for 4,570 yards before his injury last season, so rookie QBs are being asked to perform right away.
These are big yardage projections for Lawrence and Wilson, but they are attainable. Twenty-eight teams reached 3,800 passing yards last season if we extrapolate for a 17th game.
The touchdown projections aren't quite as high at the top, as these teams will surely suffer through some growing pains. Herbert's 31 passing TDs last season were an NFL rookie record, whereas Lawrence's projection of 23 would tie for fifth over the past decade.
Rushing yards
1. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: 987
2. Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos: 789
3. Michael Carter, New York Jets: 623
4. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars: 616
5. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 463
The first running back selected in April's draft, Harris landed in an ideal spot as the Steelers' immediate featured back. His projection might seem low for a lead back -- it would rank 18th among rookie RBs since 2010 -- but (a) this is a 15-game projection to account for injury rates, (b) Pittsburgh runs a pass-heavy offense and (c) the team's offensive line is the shakiest it has been during the Mike Tomlin era.
Elsewhere, both Etienne (James Robinson) and Williams (Melvin Gordon III) will have to share the backfield with a veteran, at least in the early going. Carter was a fourth-round pick, but considering that his primary competition is the likes of Tevin Coleman and La'Mical Perine, the North Carolina product has a shot at a lead role.
The 49ers' third-round running back Trey Sermon just missed the cut here at 405.
Quarterback rushing yards
1. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 463
2. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: 437
3. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 288
4. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 264
5. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 67
Among the five QBs picked in the first round, only Jones is unlikely to produce much with his legs in the pros. Lance (1,325 in 19 games), Fields (1,133 yards in 34 games), Lawrence (943 yards in 40 games) and Wilson (642 yards in 30 games) were all busy in the rushing department in college, whereas Jones (42 yards in 30 games) was a nonfactor.
This is an important fantasy nugget, as only nine rookies have finished a season better than QB14 in fantasy points, and all nine rushed for at least 213 yards and four TDs. (Those nine averaged 442.2 yards and 6.4 TDs.)
Receiving yards
1. Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: 1,003
2. DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles: 964
3. Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins: 875
4. Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: 780
5. Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens: 657
Three wide receivers -- Chase, Smith and Waddle -- were picked in the top 10 of April's draft. That probably didn't get the attention it deserves, considering zero wide receivers were picked in the top 10 in the prior three drafts, and a total of 11 were taken in those picks during the prior 10 drafts (2011-20). Of those 11, only two failed to appear in at least 10 games as rookies (John Ross and Kevin White). Six of the remaining nine reached 900 receiving yards, scored seven-plus touchdowns and were top-30 fantasy WRs.
This paints a very positive picture for Chase, Smith and Waddle in 2021. Assuming they stay healthy, all three are positioned to play significant offensive roles out of the gate.
Pitts' projection would place him fifth all-time for a rookie tight end and give him the most receiving yards by a first-year player at the position since Evan Engram's 722 yards in 2017. And while Bateman's upside is limited by Baltimore's run-heavy scheme, he has a path to an every-down role opposite Marquise Brown.
Running back receiving yards
1. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars: 463
2. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: 379
3. Michael Carter, New York Jets: 221
4. Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos: 186
5. Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers: 153
With Robinson and perhaps Carlos Hyde also involved in the running game, first-round pick Etienne is expected to be very busy in the passing game as a rookie. Think Alvin Kamara-type usage for Etienne, compared to the Mark Ingram II role for Robinson/Hyde. Kamara had 826 receiving yards as a rookie, but we can't assume this offense will be nearly as good or that Etienne will be as good as one of the league's best players. Nonetheless, 463 receiving yards would still rank ninth among backs over the past decade.
Harris caught 43 passes at Alabama last season -- five fewer than Etienne caught at Clemson -- and will be more involved in the passing game than you'd probably expect from a big back. Carter could be forced into a big rookie-season role as noted earlier, but his specialty is as a playmaker in the passing game. Williams' targets will be limited by the presence of Gordon and a Denver run-first offense that has a lot of mouths to feed at wide receiver and tight end. And Sermon's 2021 usage will depend on the health of Raheem Mostert in San Francisco.
Touchdowns from scrimmage
1. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: 8
2. Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: 7
3. Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: 6
4. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars: 5
5. DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles: 5
Since 2010, 24 rookie backs have reached eight touchdowns, though only six were selected in the first round. The 230-pound Harris is fully expected to handle goal-line work as part of his featured role, so a double-digit TD total is certainly on the table.
At 6-foot-1 and 208 pounds, Chase figures to see sufficient work near the goal line, whereas the weight of Waddle and Smith (both under 185 pounds) could limit output in that department a bit for them. Six scores for Pitts may seem a pinch low, but that would tie for fourth among rookie tight ends since 2010, with Rob Gronkowski (10) the only one above eight.
Alvin Kamara (five), Christian McCaffrey (five), Saquon Barkley (four) and David Johnson (four) are the only rookie backs with more than three touchdown receptions over the past decade, but Etienne's role will allow him to make a push to join the list. He could be a scoring threat in Jacksonville right out of the gate.
Interceptions
1. Jaycee Horn, Carolina Panthers: 2.1
2. Richie Grant, Atlanta Falcons: 1.8
3. Caleb Farley, Tennessee Titans: 1.7
4. Pat Surtain II, Denver Broncos: 1.6
5. Asante Samuel Jr., Los Angeles Chargers: 1.5
These are going to seem ridiculously low at first glance. So low, in fact, that I included decimals. But that's intentional. Rookies combined for only 38 interceptions last season (41.9 average over the past decade), and first-round rookies combined for six interceptions in each of the past two seasons (10.6 average over the past decade).
Only 14 rookies have reached three INTs over the past decade, with Marcus Peters' eight very much an outlier. Over the past two seasons, Devin Bush (two) and Darnell Savage Jr. (two) are the only first-round picks with more than one interception as a rookie.
Four of the five players on our list are corners, with the exception (Grant) a good bet to play an every-down role out of the gate at safety in Atlanta. Rookie cornerbacks have struggled in recent years, but Horn, Farley, Surtain and Samuel have a legitimate shot at an immediate top-three role.
Sacks
1. Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins: 5.5
2. Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts: 5.0
3. Odafe Oweh, Baltimore Ravens: 4.5
4. Payton Turner, New Orleans Saints: 4.5
5. Joe Tryon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4.5
In 2019, rookies combined for 126.5 sacks, and first-round rookies combined for 60. Both totals were the most since 2011. But in 2020, those numbers dropped to 71.5 and 18, respectively -- both of which registered easily as the fewest in over a decade. Chase Young's 7.5 sacks paced all rookies last season, though he was the only first-year player with more than four. Four others had more than 2.5 sacks.
Phillips and Paye have paths to big 2021 roles with underwhelming competition for reps with their new teams, and it may not take Oweh long to overtake Tyus Bowser and/or Pernell McPhee in Baltimore. Turner and Tryon have a tougher task in finding opportunities with Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport on the Saints' depth chart and Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul back in Tampa Bay.
Tackles
1. Zaven Collins, Arizona Cardinals: 128
2. Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys: 113
3. Jamin Davis, Washington Football Team: 108
4. Pete Werner, New Orleans Saints: 85
5. Jaycee Horn, Carolina Panthers: 70
Luke Kuechly's 164 tackles in 2012 are the most by a rookie over the past decade, though he is one of only six rookies to reach 130 tackles during the span. All six were picked in the first two rounds of the draft. In 2020, safety Jeremy Chinn's 116 tackles led all rookies, with first-round linebackers Kenneth Murray (107) and Patrick Queen (105) being the only others above 91. So here's a quick look at how the situations set up for the top five projected in this area for 2021:
Jordan Hicks had 118 tackles while playing 92% of the snaps as Arizona's middle linebacker last season, and first-round pick Collins is expected to slide into that role in Vance Joseph's 3-4.
Dallas is overloaded with linebacker options, but Parsons will play a big role out of the gate.
Davis has a path to a full-time role in Washington after Jon Bostic played 93% of the snaps in 2020.
Werner will slide in alongside Demario Davis in New Orleans, but 2020 third-rounder Zack Baun will also be in the mix.
Horn's 70 tackles would rank ninth for a cornerback over the past decade, but 2020 rookies Jeff Gladney (81) and A.J. Terrell (74) both eclipsed that mark last season.