The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Super Bowl LV champs, so let's look ahead to a 2021 offseason that could be filled with multiple starting quarterbacks changing teams. The Philadelphia Eagles traded Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts. Multiple teams have reached out to the New York Jets about trying to make a deal to add Sam Darnold. The Houston Texans are still trying to keep Deshaun Watson, who has requested a trade and doesn't want to play for the team.
Those three signal-callers aren't the only ones who could start elsewhere next season, with Dak Prescott, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston among the QBs who are slated to become free agents. This offseason also is expected to bring unprecedented movement in the wide receiver market, with several among the top 50 unrestricted free agents, including Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
We asked our panel of ESPN NFL experts to look ahead to the 2021 offseason, starting with their picks for next season's Super Bowl, the 2021 MVP and the most interesting team of the offseason.
Jump to a topic:
Which team will sign Allen Robinson?
Which rookie will make the biggest jump?
Who will be the Saints' 2021 QB?
Where will Deshaun Watson land?
Super Bowl LVI picks | 2021 MVP picks
Most interesting teams of the offseason
Where will Aaron Jones be playing in 2021?
Rob Demovsky, Packers reporter: Steelers. There's much to be settled with Pittsburgh's offense, including Ben Roethlisberger's immediate future, but the addition of a game-changing running back like Jones could steady things. No, the Steelers aren't traditionally big players in free agency, and yes, they have cap problems -- but so does just about every team this year. They can make it work if they want to. The Packers aren't going to pay guaranteed money to a running back, and it's hard to imagine Jones' new agent, Drew Rosenhaus, letting his client play under the tag without the promise of long-term security.
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Packers. With Jamaal Williams also heading into free agency, the Packers could bring back Jones. That would allow them to pair the explosive-play ability and receiving traits of Jones with AJ Dillon in the backfield.
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Jets. New York has a ton of cap space and has become a more attractive destination for free agents with Robert Saleh at the controls. Running back is a major need with 2020 fourth-round pick La'Mical Perine atop the depth chart. Assuming general manager Joe Douglas is willing to spend on a running back, this is one of Jones' best chances at a decent payday.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Packers. The franchise and transition tags will be reasonable this year, so running it back with Jones as the lead dog makes sense for a team on the cusp. Jones can be a do-it-all back next to the hammering style of Dillon.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Packers. I still don't think he gets a long-term deal from them unless he cuts them a bargain, but there's a strong chance they franchise him for what should be a relatively low RB franchise cost.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior NFL writer: Packers. This has a tag written all over it. I just don't see the Packers losing such a talented all-around back before retaining him becomes cap-prohibitive.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Bears. It hasn't always looked this way, but you should envision the Bears' offensive priorities as being similar to the Chiefs' under Andy Reid. In those systems, there is always a premium put on running backs who are good in the passing game. Jones has caught 96 passes over the past two seasons, and it's hard to see the Packers offering him a premium contract after using a second-round pick on running back Dillon last year.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Dolphins. The Packers are currently over the cap, and if I'm choosing between their potential free agents I'd prioritize re-signing Corey Linsley over Jones. In Jones Miami would be getting a running back who is an asset in the passing game, too -- and quite possibly for cheap given teams' tight budgets and the ever-shrinking market for backs in the modern NFL.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Dolphins. The Packers are in a tight cap spot due to the depressed salary cap and the fact that they have a darn good roster (good players make a lot of money!), so I'll lean toward Miami. On the one hand, the Dolphins learned in 2020 that value plays at running back can work better than free-agent/trade pickups (Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed were superior to Matt Breida and Jordan Howard); on the other, the team saw what it was like to go through a carousel of backs. Jones -- an excellent talent and high-football-character individual -- would give them a workhorse back.
Who will be Washington's starting quarterback in Week 1 in 2021?
John Keim, Washington Football Team reporter: Sam Darnold. It's early, but I see the next guy coming from outside the organization. One thing we learned with Alex Smith, however: Don't underestimate what he can do. It's hard to see Washington mortgaging what it would take to get Deshaun Watson. It's hard to imagine Derek Carr going anywhere. That leaves Darnold as a trade possibility. In talking to a couple of coaches around the league, he's the one they said they would pursue if they were Washington. He's young, talented, can move, and the hope would be his issues stemmed as much from the Jets situation as anything. I wouldn't give up a lot for him considering a team has only a year to make up its mind before his option kicks in, and his production doesn't merit a lot. But he's worth a shot.
Bowen: Ryan Fitzpatrick. He could fit as a short-term option in Scott Turner's offense. Fitzpatrick is an aggressive, veteran thrower. And that would allow Washington -- with more offseason additions at wide receiver -- to create explosive plays on offense.
Clay: Alex Smith. I realize the team is hunting for an upgrade, but it doesn't quite have the draft capital to select one of the top options in this year's class. The likes of Mitchell Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, Cam Newton or Ryan Fitzpatrick are free-agent options, but so is Smith, who remains under contract and figures to be only better in his second season back from injury.
Fowler: Sam Darnold. A Watson package might be too steep for the relatively new Washington regime, and it's doubtful the Eagles would trade Carson Wentz inside the division. Darnold has untapped potential, mobility and a modest trade price if the Jets find their future quarterback at No. 2 overall or via a major Watson play. And let's not discount Smith, who led Washington to a 5-2 record down the stretch.
Graziano: Cam Newton. Just get the band back together, Ron Rivera and Marty Hurney. If Cam has enough left in the tank to play the way he did in his Carolina prime, his former coach and GM could take a flier on him as their 2021 starter. Of course, it's also possible he has nothing left and could end up calling it a career. In which case, I like the Fitzpatrick idea.
Reid: Sam Darnold. Being a USC alum, I'd like to see Darnold start over in a good environment. Again, I can't believe I'm about to write this next sentence, but I've been doing it a lot lately: Washington qualifies as one. Finally, the franchise appears to have stability within both the football and business operations. With Washington, Darnold would at least have a chance to prove whether it was him or the Jets (history tells us it was probably the Jets). To acquire Darnold, Washington won't be required to offer anything close to the draft capital it took for the LoRams to get Matthew Stafford. Washington and Darnold makes a whole lot of sense.
Seifert: Sam Darnold. In most cases, the tendency would be to downshift into a lower-level projection such as Fitzpatrick, Smith or even Newton. But owner Daniel Snyder has always pushed for big-name players at this position, and I'll believe claims that Snyder is allowing his football leaders to make football decisions when I see it actually happen in a high-profile situation.
Walder: Cam Newton. It's hard not to connect the dots between Newton and Ron Rivera, particularly because Washington is caught in the unenviable position of needing a quarterback but drafting in the back half of the first round. Washington could draft someone like Alabama's Mac Jones, but one has to imagine that if Washington signed Newton he'd get the nod to open the season.
Yates: Ryan Fitzpatrick. Washington's draft slot (19th) leaves it too far down the order to be a shoo-in for a first-round quarterback, while Smith's contract is pricier than the team is probably equipped to pay if he decides to continue his career. Fitzpatrick represents that sweet spot for the Football Team of a player who won't command massive money but can bring playmaking and experience to a position of major need.
Where will Allen Robinson be playing in 2021?
Bowen: Patriots. Yes, having an answer at the quarterback position will be key for the Patriots in free agency to land a talent like Robinson. But they have the cap space and the offensive scheme under Josh McDaniels to make Robinson a high-volume WR1.
Clay: Colts. Tons of cap space? Check. Contender? Check. Need at wide receiver? Check. Solid quarterback situation? TBA. Robinson wants to win (who doesn't?), so if the Colts find themselves a replacement for Philip Rivers, this fit makes a ton of sense. With soon-to-be 32-year-old T.Y. Hilton entering free agency and unproven wide receivers behind him on the depth chart (Michael Pittman Jr., Parris Campbell), this is a need spot for the Colts.
Fowler: Washington. The team swung big for Amari Cooper a year ago but didn't land him. It won't miss this time. Pairing Robinson with Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic and Logan Thomas would equip Washington for shootouts with anyone in the NFC East.
Graziano: Patriots. They need to do something at wide receiver, and depending on what happens at quarterback they could be in position to sell themselves to Robinson as a team poised to bounce back from its first bad year in nearly 20.
Reid: Washington. Washington absolutely loves McLaurin, who is a lot better than the club's football people initially realized. But McLaurin (and Sam Darnold?) must have more help. Washington must add playmakers in the passing game. After whiffing on Cooper last offseason, Washington will close the deal with Robinson.
Seifert: Packers. It's just a guess at this point, but we can no longer exclude the Packers from big-time free-agent speculation. And despite some progress from their group of young receivers around Davante Adams, there is every reason to think they would get a major benefit from adding a player of Robinson's caliber.
Walder: Colts. They have a question mark at quarterback now, sure, but they also have a need at wide receiver. And while Robinson will be expensive, the Colts do have the cap flexibility to pay up. He would instantly upgrade the position group in Indianapolis and be an important asset to whoever lines up under center.
Yates: Bears. While contract talks to this point have been unsuccessful, there's one dynamic that cannot be overlooked: The Bears are in a win-now mode with both general manager Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy under scrutiny. This offseason won't be easy to navigate with cap constraints around the league, but finding a way to keep the best offensive player on the team certainly helps the 2021 cause, which is essential.
Who is the sneaky-good free agent teams should covet next month?
Bowen: DE Kerry Hyder. Hyder has traits as an edge rusher off twists and stunts with the ability to win isolated one-on-one matchups. The 49ers defensive end logged 8.5 sacks last season. I would look to add Hyder -- who will turn 30 years old this offseason -- on a three-year deal, with the option to release him or add more years going into the final year of the contract.
Clay: WR Curtis Samuel. When Carolina hired coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady last offseason, it seemed like Samuel might finally be used in a way that would maximize his abilities. That came to fruition. Samuel produced 848 yards and three touchdowns through the air and 200 yards and two scores on the ground. His 117 touches were the second most among wide receivers, and his 79% catch rate ranked first. Any team in the market for a versatile offensive playmaker should have Samuel, who is only 25 years old, at or near the top of its wish list.
Fowler: LB Jarrad Davis. He fell out of favor in Detroit, but Davis should have a nice market at middle linebacker. The former first-round pick can do more than rack up second-level tackles, having registered 10.5 sacks and seven forced fumbles since 2017. The Bengals are among the teams that could use the linebacker help
Graziano: WR Corey Davis. He was the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft. After a disappointing first couple of seasons, he was passed in the Titans' WR hierarchy by A.J. Brown. (No shame in that.) But Davis had 984 receiving yards in 2020, his best year as a pro. He just turned 26 in January and fits the physical profile of a No. 1 wide receiver for a team that might not want to spend for the top tier of free-agent wideouts.
Reid: WR Antonio Brown. Look, I get he doesn't truly fall under the category of "sneaky good," considering Brown was once, regardless of size, the most dominant WR1 in the NFL. And then there's the very legitimate issue of his off-field problems. Lastly, after winning a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers and potentially having a chance to continue playing with Tom Brady, perhaps Brown would sign a team-friendly deal to remain with Tampa Bay. All of that established, if he doesn't return to the Bucs -- and shows he has grown from his past mistakes and is willing to take a one-year deal elsewhere -- he could still make a major impact for a playoff-contending club. It's unlikely Brown, who will be 33 in July, remains capable of taking the top off of defenses multiple times a game. Again, though, if a lot of things fall into place, he could be a sneak-good signing for the right team.
Seifert: TE Jonnu Smith. I'm surprised we haven't heard more about Smith's pending availability after four seasons with the Titans. Every team wants the kind of mismatch he provides in the passing game, and few have it. Used in a more tight end-friendly system, Smith could really be an offensive force.
Walder: CB Brian Poole. He recorded the third-lowest target rate among corners with at least 200 coverage snaps and spent at least half the time in the slot, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Part of that might have been due to the Jets' weakness at outside corner, but when he was targeted, Poole allowed a completion percentage four points below expectation (and seven points below expectation in 2019).
Yates: CB K'Waun Williams. Fans of the 49ers will tell you all about Williams, who had yet another rock-solid season for San Francisco manning the slot in 2020, though he missed eight games with a knee injury. Thinking out loud, the Jets sure seem like a team that could use some reinforcements at the cornerback position -- and they just so happened to have hired former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh as their new head coach.
Which 2020 rookie will make the biggest jump in Year 2?
Bowen: Chase Young, DE, Washington. Young finished his rookie season with 7.5 sacks, and that number should jump in 2021. As we saw over the second half of the year, he developed more counter moves as an edge rusher to pair with his high-level traits. And, in Washington, he plays with one of the league's top defensive fronts.
Clay: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys. Lamb looked the part as a rookie, posting a 74-935-5 receiving line while adding 82 yards and one touchdown with his legs and another score as a returner. Of course, he enjoyed most of his success with a healthy Dak Prescott during Weeks 1-2, ranking sixth in the NFL in receiving yards during the span, before plummeting to 43rd from that point forward. The 17th overall pick has a good chance to jump to the elite tier of wide receivers with Prescott likely back under center in 2021.
Fowler: Jeff Okudah, CB, Lions. Okudah's rookie year couldn't have gone much worse, but he's more boom than bust, a talented player who works hard. Last year's Lions threw him in man coverage with minimal pass rush. He'll learn from that. New defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn helped another Ohio State corner, Marshon Lattimore, become a top-10 player at the position, and he'll do the same for Okudah.
Graziano: Van Jefferson, WR, Rams. I know the Rams loved him coming out of training camp; he just got stuck on the depth chart behind Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp on a Rams team that didn't use as many three-WR sets as it used to. When he got the opportunity, he looked good, and I think he fights his way into more playing time starting in Year 2 with Matthew Stafford throwing him the ball.
Reid: Chase Young, DE, Washington. Young, who came on strong to finish with a 7.5-sack season, is a force on the field and in the locker room. He's playing a major role in significantly improving the organization's culture. For Young's next act, don't be surprised if he doubles his sack total. He will be in the discussion for the Aaron Donald Defensive Player -- er, I mean the Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year Award.
Seifert: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins. Admittedly, this selection originates in part from Tagovailoa's underwhelming rookie season. He didn't seem to trust his downfield reads, and the Dolphins didn't seem to trust him in some important situations. But it's reasonable to attribute that to the very unusual nature of his rookie season, which was preceded by injury rehabilitation and offered none of the usual offseason help. He'll have a much better base in 2021.
Walder: Alex Highsmith, OLB, Steelers. After Bud Dupree tore his ACL in Week 12, Highsmith took over as a starter -- a role he'll presumably keep with Dupree likely leaving in free agency. And in his limited playing time, Highsmith shined; if we halve the qualifier, the Steelers rookie ranked seventh in pass rush win rate at edge ... one spot ahead of Chase Young.
Yates: D'Andre Swift, RB, Lions. It was a crowded space in the Detroit backfield this past season, but with Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson both due for free agency, Swift is in line to take on a featured role. The offensive staff hirings this offseason by the Lions suggest a scheme ready to be ground-focused. Swift's talent shined down the stretch last season.
Which team that didn't make the playoffs in 2020 will make it in 2021?
Bowen: Patriots. We still need to see what direction the Patriots go at the quarterback position, but with ample cap space and the best coaching staff in the league under Bill Belichick, I see the Patriots making the moves to produce a playoff-ready roster in 2021.
Clay: Patriots. New England will need to be aggressive in finding an upgrade at quarterback this offseason, but it's hard to imagine a Belichick team missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. Remember, the Patriots will get back a ton of talent from the opt-out list and should still have one of the league's top defenses. Expect the Patriots to leap right back into the wild-card mix.
Fowler: Cowboys. A defense that bottomed out last season will improve with new personnel and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. A healthy Dak Prescott with one of the deepest receiver corps in the league will catalyze a top-five offense. And the NFC East will leave the playoff door wide open.
Graziano: Giants. First off, no one wins the NFC East two years in a row, so sorry, Washington. The Eagles look like they're in full rebuild mode. And I'm just not sure one offseason is enough to fix what ails the Cowboys' defense. The Giants showed a fair bit of promise under first-year coach Joe Judge, and if Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can stay healthy, they have a chance to surprise some folks.
Reid: Cowboys. Now, I'm assuming the Cowboys and Prescott come together on a multiyear contract extension. I'm assuming that there's no way the Cowboys could possibly be as bad on defense next season. Big assumptions? Possibly. But with a healthy (and happy) Prescott and even the slightest improvement on defense, Dallas will be back in the postseason.
Seifert: Dolphins. Coach Brian Flores' rebuild has moved ahead of projections at every step, and it's more than reasonable to think the Dolphins are primed to enter a 14-team playoff field in 2021. They've won 12 of their past 18 games, dating back to the end of the 2019 season, and have another big draft haul headed their way.
Walder: Cowboys. They would have obliterated the woeful NFC East with a healthy Prescott, who will be back if there's any sanity in that front office. Don't get me wrong: That defense has problems. But defense can also be fixed much quicker than offense.
Yates: Cowboys. The division is wide open and I'm convinced Prescott will finally be signed long-term this offseason. His value was highlighted by his absence this past season and I expect an exceptional comeback.
Which team that made the playoffs in 2020 won't make it in 2021?
Bowen: Bears. They backed into the postseason field this season. With no clear answer at the quarterback position and limited offensive weapons, however, I don't see Chicago as a playoff team in 2021.
Clay: Washington. I don't expect the NFC East to be significantly better in 2021, but the Cowboys certainly will be if Prescott returns. Meanwhile, Washington has put together a strong defense, but it's hard to see a path to a clear upgrade at quarterback barring a blockbuster trade either for Watson or to move up to the top three of April's draft.
Fowler: Bears. Could also put the Saints on here as a team facing a (likely) Drew Brees hangover and aging veterans. But the Saints are still good enough, and though the Bears could improve from 8-8 with better quarterback play, there's not a clean path to the playoffs in what should be a stronger NFC field.
Graziano: Washington. I love the defense, don't get me wrong. But no team has repeated as NFC East champ since the 2003-04 Eagles, and I don't see that changing in 2021. Washington doesn't even know who its quarterback is going to be yet.
Reid: Saints. I get that coach Sean Payton has worked wonders before while Brees has been sidelined. Whether Teddy Bridgewater or Taysom Hill was under center the past two seasons, the Saints kept rolling. With Brees gone and not coming back, however, the Saints will have a whole different vibe while missing the playoffs.
Seifert: Washington. It has been almost two decades since a team won consecutive NFC East championships, and a very early guess about the NFC suggests that the wild-card entries will come from other divisions. And while Washington has some good pieces, it won the 2020 title at 7-9 and is hardly a lock to make significant improvement. The Cowboys could overtake Washington with a healthy Prescott, and the Giants will be more formidable with Barkley back on the field.
Walder: Bears. Frankly, they weren't a particularly good team in 2020, they just happened to reach the playoffs. In fact, the ESPN Football Power Index considers the 2020 Bears almost two points worse than the 2020 Falcons. I don't see a reason Chicago ought to be substantially better next season, so it is the obvious dropout.
Yates: Bears. They are the low-hanging fruit because they barely crept into the playoffs this season, but with quarterback uncertainty and other concerns across this roster, I believe they'll be on the outside looking in.
Who will be the Saints' starting quarterback in Week 1?
Mike Triplett, Saints reporter: Jameis Winston. Sean Payton raved about Winston during his Super Bowl week media appearances, making it clear that the Saints intend to re-sign the free-agent quarterback and let him compete for the job with Taysom Hill. That matches what I have heard privately as well. Of course the Saints could still consider other options like a splash trade or moving up in the draft. But they have limited cap space and don't pick until 28th in the draft. So Winston, who just turned 27 in January, probably has as much upside potential as anyone else they could acquire.
Clay: Taysom Hill. I realize reports suggest that Winston is the favorite, but I'm not sure that makes a ton of sense at this point in the process, especially considering Hill was ahead of him this past season. Hill completed 72% of his passes and averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt during his four starts, adding a 39-209-4 rushing line along the way. I'll give the dual-threat QB the early edge.
Reid: Jameis Winston. I've heard good things about Winston's state of mind and what the Saints think of him. I want to believe that Payton had a plan all along.
Graziano: Jameis Winston. By all accounts, he enjoyed his year as a backup in New Orleans, and the team feels positively about him. Bringing in someone from the outside would require time for that person to learn the system, and Winston has a one-year advantage on that. Giving the job to Hill would require ... well, I'm not sure what that would require, but it doesn't seem like it'd be easy.
Yates: Jameis Winston. The Saints are as resourceful and creative as anyone in maneuvering the salary cap, but this offseason presents a challenge that none of us expected with the suppressed salary cap due to COVID-19 financial fallouts. Along those lines, shopping for a pricey quarterback is unlikely, leading to another year with Winston back in the fold at a value greater than last year's bargain price, but not cap compromising.
Seifert: Jameis Winston. Payton was asked recently on the NFL Network about life after Drew Brees. The first name he mentioned was Winston, even though he is a pending free agent. We often assume that NFL coaches and executives are trying to mislead us with their public answers to hypotheticals, but in this case, Payton's interest in and respect for Winston is real.
Fowler: Taysom Hill. The Saints want Winston back, but he might just have himself a decent free-agent market with so many teams desperate for quarterback help. Winston can follow the Teddy Bridgewater plan -- get right in New Orleans for a stint, then become a starter elsewhere. And with the Saints' cap issues this year, I'm not sure they can outbid another team for his services. Hill is on the books for a $16 million cap charge, and Payton knows how to win with him.
Walder: Jameis Winston. I was surprised they went with Hill as the primary backup this season. It was fine, but I still think Winston offers the Saints the best chance to win in 2021. While his aggressiveness came at a price in 2019 -- 30 interceptions -- there was a reward: He ranked 16th in QBR that season.
Bowen: Jameis Winston. Payton can scheme for Winston, creating second-level windows while also stretching defenses vertically, which this offense lacked in 2020 with Drew Brees. And by re-signing Winston, the Saints can continue to use Hill as a versatile player in the offensive game plan.
Where will Deshaun Watson be playing in 2021?
Sarah Barshop, Texans reporter: Texans. At least, he'll be on their roster at the beginning of the season. Publicly and privately, the Houston organization has said that it does not want to trade Watson. He signed a four-year, $156 million extension in September and it is hard to see the Texans getting close to equal value for a 25-year-old top-five quarterback signed to a reasonable contract extension that runs through the 2025 season. Watson might choose to sit out if the Texans won't trade him, but it's hard to see the team changing its stance before the start of the season.
Yates: Dolphins. At some point, the Texans will have to make an incredibly difficult decision either way: Trade Watson, or risk him sitting out and wallowing through another terrible season. Miami's ability to offer an avenue to acquire a young quarterback to develop through the third overall pick is where Houston's focus should be in the package, but you can count on multiple more valuable draft picks heading Houston's way.
Fowler: Panthers. They have an aggressive owner, an aggressive GM, an aggressive coach, and they are all willing to scour the earth for one thing -- a long-term solution at quarterback. They don't seem sold on Teddy Bridgewater, so throwing a ton of draft picks (and maybe Christian McCaffrey?) to the Texans isn't the worst thing. In Watson's "Anywhere But Houston" plan, returning to the South might not be so bad for the Georgia native.
Graziano: Panthers. They have a high-enough first-round pick that Houston can use to address quarterback, and they could throw in Bridgewater as a bridge while the rookie gets ready. I think offensive coordinator Joe Brady is salivating at the idea of Watson in his offense.
Walder: Jets. In evaluating its trade options, Houston is going to be looking for an offer that provides a plan at quarterback. The Jets, with a package centered on the No. 2 pick in April's draft, can offer just that. Given the team's draft capital, cap space and young talent on the roster, it makes sense for the Jets to get aggressive in pursuing the star quarterback. They have significant upside in 2021 if they land him.
Bowen: Panthers. There will be multiple teams in the mix here. And there should be. Watson played his best football as a pro last season, producing from the pocket. But if I have to pick one team, I'm going with Carolina, which can package a deal for Watson that includes multiple draft picks and veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
Seifert: 49ers. Because of the no-trade clause in his contract, Watson has significant leverage over where he goes. And there are plenty of reasons to think the 49ers, and coach Kyle Shanahan in particular, would be high on his list. I can't even imagine the creative ways Watson could excel in the 49ers' offense. It's in no way controversial to think the 49ers would do everything they could to make that happen, even if it means giving up on Jimmy Garoppolo.
Clay: Panthers. This is an underrated and attractive landing spot for Watson. He'd be teaming up with second-year coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady and would also have a pretty attractive supporting cast led by Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, Christian McCaffrey and, if he's re-signed, Curtis Samuel. The offensive line in Carolina needs work, but with a young defense in place, landing Watson could get this franchise back into the Super Bowl mix within a year or two.
Reid: 49ers. I know that the Panthers seem like a logical landing spot because of the package they could offer. But Watson has a no-trade clause. If Shanahan and Watson teamed up, the offensive artistry would be something to watch.
Which team should be the early favorite to pick No. 1 overall in the 2022 draft?
Bowen: Texans. If they do move on from Deshaun Watson, Houston will receive multiple high draft picks and possibly a veteran quarterback as part of the deal. However, with a coaching change and a roster that needs upgrades in key spots, the Texans will be in a rebuilding stage next season.
Clay: Lions. They went 5-11 and downgraded at quarterback in the short term after swapping out Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff. The Lions appear committed to the long game in terms of contending, especially after acquiring a pair of future first-round picks in the Stafford deal. A rough 2021 campaign seems likely but will pay off down the road.
Fowler: Jaguars. Even if most can agree Trevor Lawrence has superstar potential, this roster is among the league's worst. It has problems at almost every position. Urban Meyer needs a few years to create a winner. Jacksonville might just go back-to-back.
Graziano: Lions. I don't think Stafford ends up being the only high-profile departure. The new coaching staff and front office took over knowing they were at the start of a rebuild.
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Texans. Assuming Watson either A) is gone or B) holds out, this is a woefully bare-bones roster. They had the third-worst defense in football last season, per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, and it's hard to envision a pathway where they get better quickly.
Reid: Texans. Even with Watson, the Texans are a dumpster fire. If Watson succeeds in forcing a trade, Houston will be the first on the clock in the 2022 draft. Count on it.
Seifert: Lions. They've parted ways with Stafford and replaced him with Goff, a big downgrade no matter whom you ask. They gave an inexperienced and lightly pursued coaching candidate (Dan Campbell) a six-year contract. All indications are that the Lions are buckling down for a long-term rebuild that could make 2021 an ugly mess.
Walder: Texans. The remains of a Watson-less, J.J. Watt-less Texans team will not be able to muster many wins in 2021. This was a bad team with an elite QB, so think of how they'll look with Sam Darnold/Justin Fields/Zach Wilson/Jimmy Garoppolo/Drew Lock taking over? Sure, the Texans will get a healthy return for Watson, but in 2021 the picks they earn back will only make them whole again after their past errors in the trade market.
Yates: Bengals. Having Joe Burrow back and at full strength obviously points this team in the right direction, but there are roster holes all over the place. Burrow needs a beefed-up offensive line, and the Bengals play in the one division that had three playoff teams in 2020, all of which figure to stay in the mix as competitive teams next season.
Which new coach will post the most wins in 2021?
Bowen: Brandon Staley, Chargers. With quarterback Justin Herbert and the impact players he can scheme on defense, Staley is in the best position to compete in his first year with the Chargers. Total wins? Give me nine for L.A.
Clay: Brandon Staley, Chargers. Among the teams that made a coaching change, Los Angeles' roster is currently best on paper. That includes a defense led by Joey Bosa, Casey Hayward, Chris Harris Jr., a healthy Derwin James and 2020 first-round pick Kenneth Murray. It also includes Herbert, who just posted one of the best seasons ever by a rookie quarterback.
Fowler: Arthur Smith, Falcons. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have won a lot of games together. One more ride with a finally healthy Jones will push Atlanta to respectability. Smith's offensive system is similar to what helped Ryan win an MVP in 2016. And Dean Pees will bring an old-school edge to a defense that needs it.
Graziano: Brandon Staley, Chargers. The Chargers went 7-9 this season. Get James back (I know, I know) and give Herbert a full offseason to work as the starter and this team is poised to be the best of the ones that changed coaches in 2021.
Kimes: Arthur Smith, Falcons. The Falcons were one of the strangest teams in the league in 2020; the defense gave Kansas City one of its most challenging games but also got beat down by Taysom Hill. I think a refresh with the coaching staff should revitalize an offense that has underperformed relative to its talent level.
Reid: Brandon Staley, Chargers. This one is an unguarded layup. Few, if any, NFL talent evaluators realized that rookie quarterback Herbert would be so good so quickly. There's also a ton of talent on defense. In league history, few rookie head coaches have ever appeared to be in such a strong position to thrive.
Seifert: Arthur Smith, Falcons. None of the new coaches is entering turnkey environments. But one thing can be said about Smith: He's inheriting the most reliable quarterback situation. Ryan should have several more seasons left in his prime. The Chargers offered Staley a promising future with Herbert, but for 2021, Ryan, Smith and the Falcons are the choice.
Walder: Robert Saleh, Jets. One way or another, the Jets will be making an upgrade at quarterback, and there's a decent shot that's a giant leap to Deshaun Watson. But no matter who is under center at MetLife Stadium, the Jets will have money to spend elsewhere to improve a roster that already has some good, young building blocks on it.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Brandon Staley, Chargers. Like anyone who watched him this season, I'm fully invested in Herbert and believe stardom is his path. The Chargers have been on an unfortunate run of injury luck for what feels like forever, but the defense shapes up in a much better spot entering the 2021 season (a healthy James goes a long way). I believe they'll finish second in the AFC West with nine wins.
What's your early Super Bowl LVI pick?
Bowen: Chiefs over Packers. It's still Kansas City in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and an aggressive pressure defense. Assuming Aaron Rodgers is back in Green Bay in 2021, can the Packers make the necessary defensive adjustments -- in personnel and scheme -- to close out games in January? I think they will.
Clay: Rams over Chiefs. Los Angeles' trade for Matthew Stafford further confirms the team's commitment to win-now mode. Sean McVay has yet to have a losing season as an NFL head coach, and the improvement at quarterback, coupled with a very good defense, positions him for another Super Bowl run. As for the Chiefs, well, Mahomes is on the roster.
Fowler: Packers over Browns. The Packers pick is predictable. The Browns pick is hardly that. But they looked awfully convincing in their divisional-round loss to the Chiefs. Add a few more defensive pieces and maybe another wide receiver and Cleveland will be feeling dangerous come next January. Green Bay finally concedes, breaks its mold and gets Rodgers more help on offense via free agency.
Graziano: Bills over 49ers. I think the pace Buffalo is on leads it all the way to the top next season. Yeah, I could pick the Chiefs, but why go with the easy choice? As for the NFC, San Francisco can't possibly suffer as many injuries in 2021 as it did in 2020, and I'm thinking it'll find a way to upgrade at quarterback as well.
Kimes: Chiefs over Packers. I'm going to stick with the answer I gave going into the 2020 season: Until Mahomes and Andy Reid are separated, I'm going to continue picking Kansas City. On the flip side, I think Green Bay can make some improvements on defense that should put it over the top.
Reid: Chiefs over Rams. Mahomes is the game's best player. Reid and everyone in the Chiefs organization understands what they have in Mahomes, and they're intent on maximizing their success while his window remains wide open. On the other side, the Stafford-Jared Goff trade will wind up being a spectacular success for the Rams. McVay will regain his playcalling groove; the Rams' defense will be even better under new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris; and the franchise will return to the Super Bowl for the second time in four seasons. But that's where the Rams will encounter Mahomes, and the meeting won't end well for them.
Seifert: Bills over Packers. It is indeed way too early to know what the NFL landscape will look like after what is expected to be a significant offseason quarterback shuffle. But we know that Josh Allen is returning to the Bills, who are really close on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs can't be dominant every year, can they? And at this point, the inclusion of the Packers' Rodgers in the QB shuffle seems unlikely.
Walder: Packers over Ravens. Green Bay's passing offense was exceptional this season, so we can have high confidence that Rodgers & Co. will be a high-performing offensive unit again. Just use your draft picks on positions that will help you win next year, OK? As for Baltimore, I'm not ready to give up on the 2019 magic of that team just yet.
Yates: Chiefs over Packers. The harder choice here was naturally the Packers, as the Chiefs figure to be nowhere near the end of this incredible run they are on. Cap constraints are going to lead the Packers to needing to make difficult decisions, but if Rodgers stays with the Packers (and that's my presumption), this team is well positioned to be back in the hunt next season.
Who's your pick to be next season's MVP?
Bowen: Josh Allen, QB, Bills. With Brian Daboll returning as the offensive coordinator, Allen will be in the mix for the MVP award. I would expect Buffalo to upgrade the tight end position, giving Allen yet another prime middle-of-the-field target in the passing game.
Clay: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. It's the obvious pick for a reason. He has already won NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP and has led his team to the Super Bowl twice in three seasons as a starter. Oh, and he's only 25 years old.
Fowler: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams. A few NFL coaches have told me: Imagine if Stafford played somewhere else, with a high-level offensive coach on a playoff team. Well, let's see it. With the Boy Genius label starting to fade, Sean McVay will be eager to prove his mettle by cooking up offensive goodness for his new toy. Stafford is going to play-action his way to 4,700 yards, 39 touchdowns and 12 wins.
Graziano: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Best player in the league, most valuable player in the league, not sure I've ever seen anyone better. He's still in his prime and is the best bet to win this award every year that's the case.
Kimes: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. This is probably getting a little boring, but it's the truth. He's the best quarterback I've ever seen, and he's getting better every season, developing different aspects of his game.
Reid: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Look, he's the best player in the league. And he's not even in his prime yet. For a way-too-early pick, this is also a very-easy-to-call pick.
Seifert: Josh Allen, QB, Bills. In many years, Allen's performance this season would have been enough to win the award. The only quarterbacks with a better QBR were Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Allen has all of his primary weapons returning, including his offensive coordinator. And as he turns 25 this summer, Allen has plenty of room left to grow.
Walder: Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans. OK, this is assuming a trade, and we don't even know where he'll be playing yet! But whichever team deals for Watson is going to upgrade at quarterback in a major and profoundly evident way. Whether it's the Jets, 49ers, Dolphins or Panthers, Watson makes any of them substantially better, and he'll receive credit for that.
Yates: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Until further notice, I will go into every season with the thought that Mahomes is the best bet to win MVP. He'll be in just his age-26 season, the Chiefs are loaded, and he's on another level.
Which is the most interesting team of the offseason?
Bowen: Saints. It's the quarterback position in New Orleans. With the anticipation that 42-year-old Drew Brees heads into retirement, I want to see what direction the Saints and Sean Payton will go here. And I think that means re-signing Jameis Winston as the No. 1 -- to pair with a playoff-level defense.
Clay: Jaguars. There are many good candidates here in what might be the wildest offseason we've seen in a long time, but I'm excited to see the transformation in Jacksonville. The Jags are armed with an intriguing first-time NFL head coach (Urban Meyer), the first overall pick in April's draft (likely Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence) and the league's most cap space. The popcorn is ready.
Fowler: Texans. Houston is the NFL's latest piñata for critics, only there's no candy inside, just hollow promises and sad quarterbacks. How new general manager Nick Caserio will handle the Deshaun Watson trade request is the most compelling question of the offseason. How organizational culture issues will permeate the locker room might be No. 2.
Graziano: Patriots. We saw what Tom Brady is capable of doing without Bill Belichick; now we need to see what Belichick is capable of doing without Brady. Belichick has spoken publicly about the extent to which the team was hamstrung financially in 2020, but those excuses are out the window as of now. Can he find a quarterback and rebuild his dynasty without Tom?
Kimes: Jets. There are a lot of teams that need to make a decision at quarterback, but none with as many interesting choices as New York -- I truly have no idea whether they'll roll with Sam Darnold again, target Ohio State's Justin Fields or BYU's Zach Wilson in the draft, or trade for Watson. All are legitimate possibilities with a new coaching staff.
Reid: Washington. Talk about a sentence I never thought I'd write. But led by impressive rookie edge rusher Chase Young, Washington is building something special on defense. If coach Ron Rivera, the big boss in Washington's football operation, can somehow acquire a top-notch quarterback (I'd be willing to give up a ton of draft capital to acquire Deshaun Watson), watch out.
Seifert: Texans. Watson, the best quarterback in franchise history, wants out. He's 25 and is fast becoming a generational player. Would the Texans really part ways with him? One way or the other, their decision will have cascading effects not only for the organization but also around the league.
Walder: Dolphins. Because there are four ways they could go at quarterback. They could trade for Watson; they could draft a quarterback with the No. 3 pick and trade Tua Tagovailoa; they could draft a quarterback at No. 3 and have him compete with Tagovailoa; or they could push their chips in on last year's first-rounder and do none of those things. No matter what, they'll be making a significant decision that will set the direction of the franchise for years to come.
Yates: Jets. The draft starts at pick No. 2 this year, and the Jets sit pretty with a pair of first-round picks and a decision to make: Do they further fortify their roster around Sam Darnold and build around him while picking up his 2022 fifth-year option that is fully guaranteed, or do they take a quarterback second overall who can be their new centerpiece? The Jets are well equipped.