What's clear after Saturday night's news, after asking around NFL front offices: Matthew Stafford wants to be a winner. He doesn't care about the stats. He wants a chance to contend.
That's the crux of his trade request, which the Detroit Lions will honor by exploring options for the quarterback on the market. He gave it 12 years in Detroit. It didn't work. That's OK for both parties to admit. And never was there a cleaner time to do this, for three reasons.
Age: Stafford turns 33 next month (OK, so maybe 40 in Lions years) and should have a few more prime seasons left.
Contract: His deal is reasonable for high-level-quarterback standards. Stafford, who is eligible for free agency in 2023, is owed $53 million over the next two seasons. That's basically the same commitment Tampa Bay made to Tom Brady last offseason. The $10 million roster bonus is due on the fifth day of the league year, which creates a trade deadline of sorts. And the cap hits for the next two years are $33 million and $26 million, the first of which could be offset by the Lions absorbing the $10 million left of signing bonus proration.
Compensation: Stafford will be costly, but the consensus around the league is that this won't be outrageous. While Deshaun Watson could justify a haul of picks in any Houston trade, Stafford is generally considered in that next tier. And maybe, with a new scene, Stafford's game hits a new stratosphere.
So what would it take to land Stafford from the Lions? And which teams should be in the mix? Here's how it all lines up, based on calls made to execs around the league over the weekend.
What a Stafford trade package would look like
The consensus is Stafford won't command the same market as Watson, who might require at least three first-round picks to secure.
Teams are in the process of trying to find out the price. There's no definitive compensation package to get there just yet, but some around the league are wondering if a first-rounder and multiple picks in the second through fourth rounds gets it done.
The Carson Palmer trade between the Cincinnati Bengals and Oakland Raiders in 2011 is a good reference point. Palmer was 32 when the Raiders gave up a first- and second-rounder for him. Teams generally are more willing to part with draft capital now, so consider this a start.
Then there's the Jay Cutler deal in 2009, with the Chicago Bears giving up Kyle Orton, two firsts and a third-rounder. Cutler was 25 and coming off a Pro Bowl. But most agree Stafford is a better quarterback.
Many teams will make calls on Stafford if they haven't already. Here's a breakdown of teams that will or should be involved:
Note: Cap space figures are according to ESPN's Roster Management System.
Indianapolis Colts
Day 1-2 draft picks in 2021: No. 21 overall, one second-round pick, one third-round pick
Projected 2021 cap space: $69,288,959
This is an easy dot to connect due to Indianapolis' QB depth chart of Jacob Eason and ... Jacob Eason. The Colts also have nearly $70 million in projected cap space available.
But it goes deeper than that. General manager Chris Ballard has patiently built a winner over the past few years. The roster is ready to contend now. The Colts did a one-year deal with Philip Rivers last offseason knowing they could attack this quarterback window now. They have the line to protect Stafford and intriguing playmakers to bolster the passing game.
This is a spot Stafford most definitely has his eyes on, from what I'm hearing. And NFL execs starting telegraphing this one last month.
"Makes a lot of sense, which is why the Colts will really look into making this work," an NFC exec said.
There's really no financial adjustment Indy must make. The expiring deals of Rivers and Jacoby Brissett create $46.3 million in space alone. Plug and play.
The only issue is the Colts' standing in the first round. They pick 21st overall in this draft and could be picking outside of the top 20 in future years. They'll likely have to part with a high volume of picks to compensate.
San Francisco 49ers
Day 1-2 draft picks in 2021: No. 12 overall, one second-round pick
Projected 2021 cap space: $11,201,358
I'm not convinced the 49ers are definitely moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo, who is well-liked and 24-9 as the starter in San Francisco. But when you ask people around the league for potential fits for Stafford, San Francisco almost always comes up. Stafford's arm would add a dimension to Kyle Shanahan's multitier attack.
"He has the arm and is an underrated athlete, so he's scheme-versatile," an NFC exec said. "They could do a lot of different things with him [in San Francisco]."
And as the quarterback carousel spins, Garoppolo will have some trade value, providing extra draft capital for a Stafford flip. The Niners' 12th overall pick is low enough to entice Detroit.
San Francisco has $11.2 million in cap space and might need roster concessions to make it work: Slashing a few veteran salaries or parting with left tackle Trent Williams, who's eager to hit free agency. All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner needs a new deal, too.
New England Patriots
Day 1-2 draft picks in 2021: No. 15 overall, one second-round pick
Projected 2021 cap space: $50,642,785
The need is jarring. The Patriots ranked 27th in total offense, and 30th in passing offense. Bill Belichick all but punted on the 2020 offense knowing more cap space and options are coming in 2021. New England is projected to have $50.6 million in space this offseason.
Stafford, who will likely need to sign off on any deal, would be betting on the Belichick pedigree and not on the supporting cast. The Patriots need major playmaking upgrades. But Stafford's running mate, Kenny Golladay, is a free agent. If the Lions don't franchise-tag Golladay, this would be quite the package deal in New England.
Belichick loves the art of the trade and has executed a deal with all 31 opponents. But he has never shown willingness to splurge on a single entity with a first-round pick or more, preferring bargain-hunting for disgruntled vets or better draft positioning.
This is his chance to change, but that might not be his style.
One wrinkle in any New England courtship is former Lions coach Matt Patricia, who just rejoined the staff in a nebulous all-purpose role.
Patricia and Stafford didn't have major problems in Detroit, but Stafford clearly was fatigued at the end of the Patricia tenure. I'm not sure Patricia's presence is necessarily a perk in landing Stafford; either way, the main focus will be his work with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Washington Football Team
Day 1-2 draft picks in 2021: No. 19 overall, one second-round pick, two third-round picks (own, 49ers')
Projected 2021 cap space: $35,462,755
Washington knows that this is its time to strike, and many around the league expect the team to shop for quarterback help -- if not Stafford, then somebody else -- this offseason.
"I think they'll at least explore it," one exec predicted.
Washington has a little more than $35 million in cap space and a ton of intriguing pieces on both sides of the ball.
New general manager Martin Mayhew, plucked from San Francisco's front office, was the Lions' GM who drafted Stafford No. 1 overall in 2009. There's a mutual respect.
The question is how far Ron Rivera is willing to stretch his draft capital for a team that's still young in several spots. Washington does have an extra third-round pick to package with 19th overall and more.
Houston Texans
Day 1-2 draft picks in 2021: One third-round pick
Projected 2021 cap space: -$21,344,006
One NFC exec floated Houston as a possibility if Deshaun Watson continues to force the issue on a trade.
In theory, general manager Nick Caserio could spend his first few months on the job repackaging his massive haul from a Watson trade to acquire Stafford and have more picks left over to rebuild. Take the New York Jets' No. 2 pick and two future firsts, then give the Lions the No. 2 and a future first for Stafford and the Lions' seventh overall pick, which they use on LSU's Ja'Marr Chase or Alabama's DeVonta Smith or whichever premier player is available.
But that's more amusing than feasible, and the Texans have been clear -- up to this point -- that they aren't trading Watson.
Given the cap-space situation -- and that's with Watson's bargain $9.8 million this year -- the Texans would have to do some maneuvering.
Carolina Panthers
Day 1-2 draft picks in 2021: No. 8 overall, one second-round pick, one third-round pick
Projected 2021 cap space: $10,934,779
Like Washington, Carolina figures to be heavily involved in the QB carousel. It has $10.9 million in cap space, the No. 8 overall pick and exciting young players it could include in a deal if necessary, such as safety Jeremy Chinn, defensive tackle Derrick Brown or even running back Christian McCaffrey if the Lions want an exciting playmaker for offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn's run game.
The Panthers probably won't want to part with any of the young core, but a competitive push out of Carolina would hardly surprise.
New Orleans Saints
Day 1-2 draft picks in 2021: No. 28 overall, one second-round pick, one third-round pick
Projected 2021 cap space: -$99,864,924
That $99 million cap deficit is crippling for New Orleans, but the idea of Sean Payton drawing up plays for Matthew Stafford in the Superdome can't be ignored.
The Saints are intrigued by a potential re-signing of Jameis Winston. Taysom Hill's $16 million cap hit is a drain if he's not the starter.
New Orleans can win with either option, but questions would persist. Stafford could help answer those.
Denver Broncos
Day 1-2 draft picks in 2021: No. 9 overall, one second-round pick, one third-round pick
Projected 2021 cap space: $12,624,095
New GM George Paton is measured, so not sure this would be his first splashy move. But Paton saw Stafford up close for 12 seasons while with the Minnesota Vikings, and considers him a top-tier talent. And John Elway isn't afraid to gamble on quarterbacks.
However, giving Drew Lock one more year is a much cheaper play.
Las Vegas Raiders
Day 1-2 draft picks in 2021: No. 17 overall, one second-round pick, one third-round pick
Projected 2021 cap space: -$17,045,769
Jon Gruden has long been enamored by Stafford's arm, and the Raiders like to insert themselves into potential deals. They want to be active.
Clearly the Raiders could stick with Derek Carr, who, like Stafford, signed his extension in 2017. But including Carr or Marcus Mariota in a deal would give Detroit a good option at the position.
That $17 million cap deficit could be an issue.