Phew. The first back-to-back tripleheader NFL playoff weekend is over. The "super wild-card" round brought six dramatic games and delivered us into the traditional four-game divisional round.
We're going to get the third Brady-Brees matchup in five months, along with a look at the top two contenders for the MVP and some relative playoff newcomers. There is an entire week remaining for hype and analysis, so for now, here is our top-line look at the divisional matchups, set for Jan. 16-17.
Note: Odds and game lines are via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. Predictions are from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
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Super Bowl chances
NFC
(6) Los Angeles Rams at (1) Green Bay Packers
4:35 p.m. ET, Saturday, Jan. 16, Fox | Preview
Opening line: Packers -7 (46.5)
FPI prediction: Packers, 65.1% (by 5.1 points)
What to watch for: The matchup of the expected MVP against arguably the NFL's best defense is going to be a highlight of the divisional weekend. It's a pretty good bet that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will win the MVP and, for that matter, Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald will be named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year. If you're having trouble picturing the Rams winning at Lambeau Field, it's because they've done so only once in the past 24 years.
Why the Rams will win: Donald's health will need to be monitored after he suffered a rib injury Saturday. But the Packers will have to assume they will be contending with a fully stocked defense that allowed the fewest points per possession (1.46) in the NFL this season. They are uniquely set up to stymie the Packers' timing. If anyone can check All-Pro receiver Davante Adams, it's cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Packers lost only three times in the regular season, but two of those came in their two lowest-scoring games. The Rams probably aren't winning a shootout, but fortunately for them, they have a chance to keep the scoreboard quiet.
Why the Packers will win: The bar for outscoring the Rams shouldn't be high. The Rams' offense scored an average of 12.7 points per game during the final three weeks of the regular season, and neither of their quarterbacks -- Jared Goff and John Wolford -- are 100 percent healthy. Neither is receiver Cooper Kupp, who has bursitis in his knee. Since Week 13, the Packers have allowed 17.2 points per game.
X factor: Rams running back Cam Akers. It seems likely that the Rams' passing offense is going to be limited, given the health of their two quarterbacks. But Akers emerged late in the season as an offensive force. He capped it off with 131 yards in the wild-card win over the Seahawks, and a similar performance would keep the Rams competitive in this uphill battle.
(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (2) New Orleans Saints
6:40 p.m. ET, Sunday, Jan. 17, Fox | Preview
Opening line: Saints -3.5 (50)
FPI prediction: Saints, 53.6% (by 1.2 points)
What to watch for: The Saints owned the Buccaneers during the regular season, beating them twice and outscoring them by 26 along the way. They also intercepted Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady five times, sacked him six times and forced a fumble. You'll hear a lot this week about the difficulty of beating the same team three times in one season, but the overlapping issue will be whether the Saints are simply a bad matchup for the Buccaneers. And in either event, the third matchup between Brady and Saints QB Drew Brees in five months will be a treat for us all.
Why the Buccaneers will win: They've played their best football of the season over the past five weeks, all victories. During that span, they've averaged 35.8 points per game and clearly gotten Brady into a more comfortable spot in their offense. In his past three games, Brady has averaged 145.7 passing yards off play-action, more than twice his average prior to that (64.9). With Brady clicking and linebacker Devin White back from the reserve/COVID-19 list, the Buccaneers have everything going for them at just the right time.
Why the Saints will win: We've already noted they were well-matched against the Buccaneers, and especially Brady, during the regular season. The Saints' defense was great against the pass for most of the season, holding opposing quarterbacks to the fourth-lowest QBR in the NFL (58.4). As a franchise, the Saints have made four consecutive playoff appearances. This year's edition seems to be the most competitively balanced. With a top-five defense, a future Hall of Fame quarterback and a running game that produced more touchdowns (30) than any other team, the Saints have multiple ways to beat playoff opponents.
X factor: Saints running back Alvin Kamara. One of the under-discussed factors in the Buccaneers' success this season has been their run defense, which led the NFL in allowing 3.6 yards per carry. In fact, it held Kamara to 56 yards on 21 carries in the regular season (both games combined). But now that the Buccaneers are scoring better themselves, production from Kamara and the rest of the Saints' running game is likely to factor more heavily into the outcome.
AFC
(6) Cleveland Browns at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
3:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, Jan. 17, CBS | Preview
Opening line: Chiefs -9.5 (55)
FPI prediction: Chiefs, 81.3% (by 11.7 points)
What to watch for: If the Browns can go to Pittsburgh and score 48 points in a playoff victory, with their head coach and multiple assistant coaches at home because of COVID-19 protocols, after a week of largely virtual practices, and without arguably their best offensive lineman, then what could they do in a normal postseason week with a full complement of personnel? We might be about to find out. The Chiefs are deservedly heavy favorites, but the Browns have proved in the past two weeks that they have more fortitude than anyone gave them credit for.
Why the Browns will win: They have a chance to control the line of scrimmage against the Chiefs' defense, which has allowed opposing runners an average of 3.0 yards per carry before first contact. In most of the games they've won this season, the Browns have taken their leads via the passing game. And maybe that would be the case in this game with quarterback Baker Mayfield. But if you give tailbacks Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt that kind of head start into the secondary, they're going to do some damage.
Why the Chiefs will win: It seems hard to believe that the Browns' pass defense can stay with the Chiefs' receivers. The Browns ranked No. 24 in the NFL in opposing QBR and No. 25 in touchdown passes allowed (31) this season. The Chiefs will take plenty of lessons from the soft coverage the Browns played during the Steelers' comeback attempt Sunday night, and there will be just too many weapons for the Browns' defense to keep track of.
X factor: Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield. You can't upset a No. 1 seed on the road without high-level play by a starting quarterback. Is Mayfield capable of it? He certainly has played that way of late. From Weeks 12 to 17, he ranked No. 5 in the NFL in QBR (79.6). And in his first playoff start, Mayfield threw three touchdown passes without a turnover. If the Browns are to win Sunday in Kansas City, he'll need to match or exceed that type of performance.
(5) Baltimore Ravens at (2) Buffalo Bills
8:15 p.m. ET, Saturday, Jan. 16, NBC | Preview
Opening line: Bills -2.5 (50)
FPI prediction: Bills, 51.4% (by 0.5 points)
What to watch for: Two quarterbacks of the heralded 2018 draft will meet for the chance to go to the AFC Championship Game. The Bills' Josh Allen and the Ravens' Lamar Jackson are going to be battling for AFC supremacy for a long time.
Why the Ravens will win: They have found their running game at the most important time of the year, rediscovering the formula that made Jackson the 2019 MVP. To be more specific, they're averaging 262.2 rushing yards per game during their six-game winning streak. Jackson has five rushing touchdowns and eight rushes of at least 20 yards over that period. During the regular season, the Bills' defense gave up the third-most rushing touchdowns (seven) and seventh-highest rushing yards per carry average (5.2) to opposing quarterbacks.
Why the Bills win: The Bills are more than capable of matching the Ravens score-for-score in a playoff game. They've scored at least 30 points in seven of their past nine games, averaging 36.7 points overall during that span. Allen is one of the NFL's best passers outside of the pocket, and he set a career high with 117 such passing yards on Saturday against the Colts. The Ravens' defense will be a stiff test. It limited opponents to 4.79 yards per attempt on passes outside the pocket, third lowest in the NFL. But after this regular season, it makes sense to side with the offense in a strength-on-strength matchup.
X factor: The Bills' edge defenders. Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Matt Milano, A.J. Klein and even middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds will all have responsibilities for keeping Jackson in check. Jackson gets a decent portion of his rushing yardage between the tackles, but for the most part his success will rest on whether the Bills' exterior defense can keep him contained.
FPI chances to reach the Super Bowl
Chiefs: 51.3%
Packers: 36.0%
Saints: 28.7%
Buccaneers: 24.3%
Ravens: 23.5%
Bills: 20.7%
Rams: 11.0%
Browns: 4.5%
FPI chances to win the Super Bowl
Chiefs: 26.8%
Packers: 17.4%
Saints: 15.6%
Buccaneers: 13.1%
Ravens: 11.6%
Bills: 9.4%
Rams: 4.8%
Browns: 1.3%