Only six NFL games this weekend instead of 16? Only seven left in the season? You know what that means, don't you? That's right. Postseason overreactions!
In case you're new here, we do this every Sunday in the regular season. We take five strong declarations fans are making based on the weekend's developments and we judge each to see whether it's an overreaction or not.
But in the playoffs, that's where it gets really juicy. Fewer games, a ton more intensity. Reactions in general -- over and otherwise -- are ratcheted up this time of year. Nerves are frayed. Pressure is turned all the way up. Heck, as you'll see below, your team doesn't even have to be in the playoffs for things to be getting intense this time of year.
In fact, we start with one team that isn't -- anymore, at least.
Ben Roethlisberger has played his last game for the Steelers
The first snap of Pittsburgh's playoff game Sunday night sailed over Roethlisberger's head and rolled into the end zone, where the Browns fell on it for the first of their four first-quarter touchdowns. Things got worse before they got better, and by the time Roethlisberger and the Steelers collected themselves, they were too far behind. Roethlisberger ended up with an eye-popping stat line: 501 passing yards on 68 attempts with four touchdowns. But he also threw four interceptions for the first time ever in a postseason game. The punches he and his team took early in the game had taken their toll, and ultimately the Steelers, who haven't won a playoff game in four years, once again went out with a whimper.
This wasn't just a random bad day, either. In Weeks 8-16 of the regular season -- he didn't play in Week 17 -- Roethlisberger ranked 18th in Total QBR, 23rd in completion percentage, 31st in yards per attempt and eighth in interceptions.
He and the Steelers began the season 11-0, but they lost five of their final six games, including Sunday night's 48-37 decision. They trailed the Colts 24-7 late in the third quarter of the only game they won over that stretch. Basically, they've played one good quarter since November.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. You want to know a category in which Roethlisberger ranks first? That would be 2021 salary-cap number. Roethlisberger, who turns 39 in March, has one year left on his contract and is scheduled to cost $41.25 million against Pittsburgh's cap in 2021.
Remember, the NFL salary cap is going to drop in 2021 because of 2020 revenue losses as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This year's cap was $198.2 million per team. Next year's could be as low as $175 million, in which case Roethlisberger would consume 23.6% of Pittsburgh's cap. That's not really tenable for any team, let alone one that has a bunch of young stars (Bud Dupree, T.J. Watt, JuJu Smith-Schuster) in line for big deals of their own. If Roethlisberger were 29 instead of 39, or if he were playing the way Tom Brady is playing at 43, then maybe you figure out how to carry that number. But he's not. He's neither of those.
Here's the breakdown on Roethlisberger's remaining contract: He's scheduled to earn $4 million in 2021 salary and a $15 million roster bonus that's due on the third day of the league year in March. But due to signing bonuses and previous restructures, the Steelers are on the hook for $22.25 million in prorated bonus money charges against their cap. So if they cut him before the third day of the league year, they'd save $19 million in 2021 cash and cap space, but they'd still carry a $22.25 million dead-money cap charge for him. The same would be the case if he decided to retire or if they were to trade him, though that last scenario would also require them to somehow hypnotize a trading partner into ignoring Roethlisberger's age and his last two seasons. Tricky stuff.
Ben Roethlisberger and Maurkice Pouncey are sitting side by side on the Steelers bench. Teammates are coming up to see them.
— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) January 11, 2021
Have to wonder if this is the end of the road for both. pic.twitter.com/NuIAFFh4AB
Here's what Roethlisberger said after the game: "It's going to start between me and God, a lot of praying. A lot of talking with my family, discussions, decisions. I still have a year left on my contract. I hope the Steelers want me back, if that's the way we go. There will be a lot of discussions. But now is not the time for that."
I don't see any way the Steelers can bring him back on his current contract. They can't restructure again, because there's only one year left on the deal (and thus no future years into which they can dump money), so the only way they can knock down his cap number would be to extend him. And even then, they could only get it down to about $27 million, which would be the 11th-highest quarterback cap number as of now.
The Steelers could absolutely decide to bring back Roethlisberger. He has mattered enough to the franchise that you can make the case he deserves to be there as long as he wants to be there. But bringing him back will force them to make tough roster decisions elsewhere, and the team around him likely won't be what he's accustomed to having.
The Ravens will be dangerous the rest of the way, now that they've won a playoff game
Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, the reigning league MVP and one of the NFL's most electrifying young players, has spent the past year hearing justified criticism of the way he'd played in his first two career playoff games.
He and the Ravens lost their playoff opener to the Chargers two years ago and to the Titans last year (when they were the AFC's No. 1 seed and coming off a bye), and Jackson had a 21.6 QBR over those two games. (QBR is measured on a scale of 0 to 100.)
Jackson also, before Sunday, had never won an NFL game -- regular season or postseason -- in which his team trailed by 10 points at any time. That streak is over too, as the Titans had a 10-0 lead in the game before Baltimore scored the next 17 points en route to a 20-13 victory.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. I could cop out here and say something like, "Every team that is left is dangerous at this point," and that is technically true. But Baltimore presents unique challenges, since no team has a more potentially dominant, game-controlling run game and no team can really simulate Jackson's speed and elusiveness in the practice week.
The Ravens have won six games in a row by an average of 17 points. And while the only two playoff teams they've faced in that stretch are the Browns (who came within a whisker of beating them) and of course the Titans, the team is playing with the same kind of confidence and swagger it carried throughout Jackson's 2019 MVP season.
It only gets tougher from here, with the Bills on tap next week and then either the Chiefs or a Browns rematch in a potential AFC Championship Game the following week. But Jackson is playing great right now, and Baltimore's defense held human steamroller Derrick Henry to 40 rushing yards and boasts the league's deepest secondary. The Ravens might not be as good as the Chiefs or Bills on paper, but they're not going to be any fun for either of those teams to play.
Deshaun Watson will be starting for a team other than the Texans in 2021
By now you've likely seen the reports from ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen that Houston's superstar quarterback is unhappy with the team's coach/GM hiring process and could consider sitting out or pushing for a trade. This has vaulted to the top of the list of offseason storylines, and if this situation deteriorates to the point where the Texans decide they have to move on from Watson, the ripple effect would be massive leaguewide.
Teams looking for quarterbacks would have to wait to see whether they had a chance to land Watson. The Jaguars would have to think about whether they'd rather have Watson or Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall in the 2021 draft. Mort floated the idea of a Texans-Dolphins deal in which Watson would trade places with 2020 first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa.
This thing could get messy and interesting and stay that way for a while.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Oh, it's possible. Don't get me wrong. We've seen more and more big stars force their way out of situations they didn't like over the past few years. Do not think I'm ruling out the possibility for Watson. But I am calling this an overreaction, because there's a possibility the Texans figure out a way to smooth things over with him, and that's a more likely outcome than a trade.
There's a lot of time left before the season. Heck, there's a lot of time left before OTAs, assuming they even have those this year. The Texans just signed Watson to a contract extension that runs through 2025 and guaranteed him nearly $74 million at signing. And it's highly unlikely new GM Nick Caserio rushed there from New England just so he could trade his star quarterback.
Could Watson force their hand? Yeah, maybe. But it's far from a sure thing, and a reconciliation of some sort still makes the most sense if they can find a way.
The third time's a charm: The Buccaneers will beat the Saints
Next Sunday night will feature Tom Brady's Bucs vs. Drew Brees' Saints for the third time this season. The Saints won 34-23 in Week 1 in New Orleans and 38-3 in Week 9 in Tampa. But in Week 1, Brady and the Bucs were still very new to each other. And in Week 9 they were in a midseason lull. They'd barely beaten the Giants the week before, and after they beat the Panthers in Week 10, they lost a pair of tough ones to the Rams and Chiefs going into their bye.
Since their bye week, the Bucs are 5-0 and averaging 35.8 points per game. Brady looked absolutely fantastic Saturday night against Washington, with his offensive line keeping him upright and his receivers reliably on the other ends of his pinpoint passes. This looks like a different Bucs team than the one that was so out of sync around midseason.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. First of all, no it doesn't. The Bucs have been a bully team all season. They are 1-4 against teams that finished the regular season with winning records and 11-1 against teams that didn't (including their first-round playoff opponent). Against the Saints, Rams, Chiefs and Bears -- the teams that beat them -- Brady's deep-ball issues really show up. He completed just 21% of deep throws (20-plus yards downfield) with one touchdown and five interceptions in Tampa's five losses this season, versus 47%, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Bucs' 11 regular-season wins.
And before you come at me with, "It's hard to beat a team three times in the same season," you should know it's really not, statistically at least. According to colleague Bill Barnwell, since the 1970 merger, teams that beat another team twice in the regular season and faced that team again in the postseason are 14-7 in the postseason rematches.
The Saints are and should be favored -- even if something weird always does seem to happen to them in January.
Saturday was Philip Rivers' last NFL game
The 39-year-old Rivers was very good Saturday in the Colts' 27-24 loss in Buffalo. He threw for 309 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and posted a 91.9 QBR. Indianapolis did basically everything it wanted to do in that game in terms of running its offense and controlling the clock. But the Colts' inability to score when they got close to the Buffalo goal line doomed them, and when Micah Hyde knocked down Rivers' last-second Hail Mary attempt, you had to wonder whether that was the veteran quarterback's final NFL pass.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. It's easy to paint a picture of Rivers wanting to come back to play one more year for coach Frank Reich, behind that offensive line, in Jonathan Taylor's and Michael Pittman's second season. It's a nice situation, for sure, and Reich sounded more than open to the idea of having Rivers back in 2021.
"As I sit here right now, yes, I want Philip Rivers to be my quarterback next year," Reich said on Sunday. "That could change. We have to do what's best for the team."
The deeply religious Rivers said he'd leave it up to a higher power and "if it's here playing another year in Indy, then we'll be here. And if it's not, then I'll be on the sideline with a ball cap coaching the heck out of a high school football team down in south Alabama."
It's possible he runs it back one more year in Indy. It's possible he retires. It's possible the league "retires" him -- i.e., the Colts don't bring him back and he can't find a starting job anywhere else. It's possible he finds a starting job somewhere else.
Rivers has never played in a Super Bowl and obviously would love to do so if he can still play, and the way he played this season indicates that he can still help someone as a starter. But the offseason gets guys thinking, Rivers has a rich and full family life, and the idea of picking up and moving to a new city while putting his body through all of the necessary offseason preparations may well sound too exhausting for him. Not ruling out the possibility at all that we've seen the last of Rivers' brilliant career.