Week 13 of the 2020 NFL schedule is upon us, save for one important contest in the AFC North that you might have read about.
There are several intriguing games this week, one of which pits 8-3 teams in Cleveland and Tennessee, and a matchup of division leaders between the Giants and the Seahawks.
We asked our experts whom they like to win the NFC East, as well as the biggest potential upsets, fantasy football flops and sleepers, and whom they would hire if they were in charge of filling a coaching vacancy.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 13?
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Falcons (+3) over Saints. Atlanta just played against the run-heavy Taysom Hill attack two weeks ago, and it will be all-in on stopping it this time. The Falcons are a Todd Gurley II kneel away from being 5-1 under interim coach Raheem Morris, who is making a push for the full-time job. This is a sneaky-good team.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Browns (+5.5) over Titans. Yeah, I know it's Derrick Henry's time of year, but it's Nick Chubb's time of year too. Both of these teams are 8-3 and in the thick of the AFC playoff race. They play similar styles of offense. They both have defenses that have shown an ability to stop people but also to be run on. I think this game is a toss-up, so this is really just a hunch, but give me the Browns to clinch their first winning season since 2007 with an upset in Music City.
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Lions (+3) over Bears. The Lions' offense has been underperforming relative to its talent level, in part because of conservative playcalling. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell has hinted at a change; I suspect they'll take more risks than before against a talented Bears defense.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Washington (+10) over Steelers. No risk it, no biscuit, right? The Football Team will have a six-day rest advantage on Pittsburgh, which had its Week 12 contest rescheduled three times. Plus, while the Steelers are good, they're not as good as their record makes it seem. As of Monday, Pittsburgh had played the easiest strength of schedule of any team in the league, per ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Texans (+3.0) over Colts. We're at the juncture of the season where we have a large enough sample to know how good these teams are, as compared to early in the year when we were still figuring teams out and could thus get by in picking upsets that were more mirage upsets than true upsets, if that makes sense. So, yeah, it's a risky proposition to pick against an Indy team that I believe in. But after an extensive study of his recent film, I've concluded that Deshaun Watson is very good at football and good enough to spring an upset.
You get to make one of the open head-coaching hires. Who are you hiring, and for which team?
Fowler: Eric Bieniemy for the Texans. I'm not overthinking this one. Go with the top candidate and throw him enough money and years on the contract to secure him. Then give him ample time to figure it all out. For all Deshaun Watson's brilliance, there's untapped potential there. He could navigate the pocket better and avoid sacks with quicker decisions. Bieniemy can use his eight years of experience with Andy Reid to get the Texans' offense organized. Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is a tempting choice because of how he manufactures points with a run-heavy offense, but I see Bieniemy and Watson connecting in a big way for years to come.
Graziano: Raheem Morris for the Falcons. Take the interim tag off and give him the job full time. He is 4-2 since taking over for the fired Dan Quinn, and Morris would be 5-1 if Todd Gurley II had done what the coaches told him to do at the end of the Lions game. Morris has been on the staff for six years and has been a position coach on offense as well as defense. The players know him and appear to be playing hard for him. He has previous head-coaching experience. If you're the Falcons, you've spent more than a half-decade developing Morris as a coaching prospect; and in the short time he has had the job, he has shown himself to be capable. I guess you have to look around, but if the Falcons finish strong, why not stick with what's working and pick the guy you groomed?
Kimes: Robert Saleh for the Lions. Despite losing their best pass-rusher and best cornerback for most of the season, the San Francisco 49ers' defense ranks in the top 10 in Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric. Saleh is, by all accounts, beloved by his players. He could turn around a culture in Detroit that has been suffering in recent years and do the same with a defense that has ranked near the bottom of the league ever since former head coach Matt Patricia took over in 2018.
Walder: Joe Brady for the Texans. Yes, he is 31. And yes, he was a grad assistant just four years ago. But an edge gained in passing offense is the most important advantage a team can acquire. A year after Joe Burrow became vastly improved when Brady was LSU's passing game coordinator, Teddy Bridgewater has recorded a career-best QBR by a mile. The upside of what Brady could do with Deshaun Watson makes it worth taking a risk on his lack of experience.
Yates: Eric Bieniemy for the Texans. We'll see how many jobs wind up opening, but the Texans' gig will be among the most appealing from a roster standpoint for one reason: Deshaun Watson. Make no mistake, there is a ton of work to be done on this roster and within the organizational structure; but Watson is a prized quarterback with whom Bieniemy -- who has been remarkable with the Chiefs -- would have all sorts of fun working. Bieniemy seems to be the closest thing to a lock to earn a head-coaching gig this offseason, and he might have multiple suitors.
Who's your pick to win the NFC East?
Fowler: Giants. They are outplaying their talent because Joe Judge has the operation running smoothly. For the first time in a while, New York football looks organized and inspired. The defense is better than I expected, and there's playmaking versatility for Daniel Jones, who is banged up. Their remaining schedule is brutal, but so is Washington's, which could also win the title led by a vicious defensive front. But New York's more balanced roster wins out here.
Graziano: Washington. I hate having to pick any of them. I had the Eagles here and switched it after watching them Monday night. Just can't see it getting better there. Every one of these teams is terrible, but when I look around, I see one unit that actually is playing at a high level, and it's Washington's defense. The QB, we know, can execute a do-no-harm game plan and get a team to the postseason. And if Washington keeps playing defense the way it has so far in its front seven, I think it can get two more wins, which might be all it needs. Honorable mention to the Giants, who get docked because of the Daniel Jones injury. Even if he doesn't miss time, it's hard to see how he'll be 100 percent.
Kimes: Washington. Looking at the Giants' remaining schedule, I see only one likely win, especially with quarterback Daniel Jones out. I could see the Football Team picking up two victories; the defense is stout, and the run game has been creative and productive. Alex Smith isn't lighting the world on fire, but he has stabilized the offense and takes care of the football.
Walder: Washington. I can't believe I'm actually saying that. But since Week 10 -- when Alex Smith took over at starting quarterback -- Washington actually ranks seventh in expected points added per play. Granted, Washington has played some awful defenses in that span. And granted, it has a particularly tough final schedule. But especially with Daniel Jones hurt, Carson Wentz a mess and Chase Young turning it up, I think Washington has the best chance to be the least terrible down the stretch.
Yates: Giants. Initially, I tried to work my way through each team's schedule and simulate each of their remaining games. My brain became something of a pretzel, as it's not as though any of them have a schedule that inspires much confidence. The Daniel Jones injury certainly bears monitoring for the G-Men, but I'll buy into these factors that are not tied to his status: This team competes hard on defense; it plays with a tenacity and discipline that shows up; and the offensive line has created more room in the running game over the past five or so weeks than I expected.
Which potential wild-card team is primed to be the scariest to face in the postseason?
Fowler: Colts. They looked primed for playoff football with convincing November wins over Tennessee and Green Bay. The 45-26 loss to the Titans is an aberration since DeForest Buckner and several defensive pieces were out of the lineup. The Colts have consistently developed good rosters, and it's time for the payoff. Indy can win with a stout offensive line, playmakers who create mismatches and a disciplined defense.
Graziano: Dolphins. Because they play defense! They make you turn the ball over (an NFL-best 17 games in a row right now with at least one takeaway). They score touchdowns on defense and on special teams. They might not have enough on offense to win four games in a row in January/February, but they are going to be a very scary team to play and a threat to knock off one of the top seeds if they catch one on a bad day. And if the Dolphins can get the offense going? The defense is good enough that they can make a run.
Kimes: Buccaneers. I think they're a flawed team, and the offense is still wildly inconsistent, but they have the highest ceiling of any wild-card team (and the most talented defense). If Tom Brady is clicking with his receivers by the time the playoffs roll around, I wouldn't want to play them.
Walder: Rams. FPI says the answer is the Bucs, but I'm overruling. The combination of Aaron Donald plus Jalen Ramsey is a vicious obstacle for opposing passing offenses. Plus, I think we haven't seen the ceiling yet for Sean McVay's 2020 offense.
Yates: Rams. We've learned the spectrum of the Rams over their past two games, as a smothering defensive effort against the Bucs propelled Los Angeles to an impressive road win, followed up by a less-inspiring loss to the 49ers (who are still very tough!). What impresses me with the Rams is not just their defensive prowess, but so many of the players general manager Les Snead acquired around the margins who have emerged as key contributors this year. Players who are far from household names continue to impress and develop on both sides of the ball.
Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 13?
Fowler: Devontae Booker, RB, Raiders. Josh Jacobs' ankle sprain should create a bigger workload for Booker, who is averaging 5.5 yards per carry on 59 attempts. The Jets are actually respectable against the run, but it's the Jets -- and big plays will be allowed. Las Vegas typically sticks with the run, averaging 29.2 attempts per game.
Graziano: Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings. Only two teams are on byes in Week 13, but one of them is the Bucs, and if you've been starting Tom Brady and Cousins is on your waiver wire, give Cousins a look against a Jaguars defense that has been highly permissive with opposing fantasy QBs. Baker Mayfield threw two touchdown passes against the Jags on Sunday. They can be had.
Kimes: Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins. Gesicki has been a slightly risky play this year, because of the Dolphins' use of multiple tight ends; but he rewarded managers with a touchdown last week, and I expect him to do the same this week against a Bengals defense that has struggled to defend the position.
Walder: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos. I've gone to this well before, but the opportunity Jeudy is getting is fantastic. He ranks seventh in expected completed air yards volume per game, based on NFL Next Gen Stats' completion probability and the depths of his target. And against the Chiefs, the Broncos will have to rely heavily on their passing attack. Of course, this pick is contingent on Denver actually having a quarterback this week.
Yates: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Dolphins. The obvious caveat is that Fitz has to actually start for the Dolphins, but there are some early suggestions that might be the case. And if he does, the matchup is just right. You might have heard that the Bengals' secondary continues to struggle this season, while Fitz has at least 19 fantasy points in five of his past six starts. FitzMagic just finds a way as a fantasy starter.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Fowler: Devin Singletary, RB, Bills. Singletary will continue to get a healthy dose of carries but not in the red zone, where Zack Moss handled the load last week. Singletary just isn't enough of a scoring threat to be a reliable fantasy option at this point, and this week's opponent, San Francisco, is still a top-10 defense in rushing yards allowed per carry.
Graziano: Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints. The Falcons have been surprisingly tough on opposing running backs in fantasy this year. Kamara has a total of 99 rushing yards and one catch in the two games that Taysom Hill has started at quarterback (and one of those was against Atlanta). Hill, if he gets a third start, is obviously a threat to steal goal-line rushing work. Kamara's value feels depressed until Drew Brees comes back.
Kimes: Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans. Watson has been incredible this season, but he is facing a strong Colts defense without his No. 1 WR, Will Fuller V. Indy was humiliated last week with several defensive stars out; I expect the Colts to bounce back in a big way.
Walder: Wayne Gallman, RB, Giants. Gallman has scored a touchdown in five consecutive games, but I'll bet his opportunity takes a step back this weekend. The Giants were already overmatched against the Seahawks, but now with Daniel Jones likely out, the offense will be in even more trouble. I imagine the Giants will have to abandon the run quickly.
Yates: Any Falcons running back. We'll see whether Todd Gurley II (knee) returns to the lineup, but tread lightly if he does. In the event that Gurley sits, the blend of Brian Hill and Ito Smith is still one that I would prefer to shy away from. We referenced this last week in this space, and it's good enough evidence to come back for more: The Saints last allowed a 100-yard rusher in November ... of 2017. Couple that with the possibility of it being a split backfield and I'd avoid the Falcons runners if I could.