The 6-4 Baltimore Ravens' offense is stuck in the mud, and while we search high and low to figure out why, the answer might be the offseason retirement of a really good offensive guard.
After a 2019 season in which Baltimore had the NFL's best offense, leading the league in rushing by nearly 1,000 yards, scoring the most points per game (33.2) and with quarterback Lamar Jackson having the best Total QBR (83.0) on his way to winning MVP, the expectation was for more of the same and possibly better. This has not been the case. (And now Jackson has tested positive for COVID-19.)
Entering Week 12, the Ravens ranked 21st in yards per play (5.5) and 24th in yards per game (344). They're scoring 26.8 points per game. Jackson's QBR is down to 62.3, putting him 23rd among quarterbacks. Baltimore still leads the league in rushing, but its per-game rushing average is only 160.5 yards, down from 206 a year ago.
There seems to be a perception among a few observers that the problem has to do with Jackson's failure to develop as a passer. We hear a lot about a lack of explosive plays -- plays that result in a gain of at least 20 yards -- in Baltimore's offense this season, or Jackson's weaknesses throwing outside the numbers.
But my Get Up! colleague Paul Hembekides and I don't like to assume we know the reasons for things. We like to find out. And few are as good as Hembo at finding out things like this.
So he did some digging, and he found that the reason for the Ravens' offensive struggles is a lot more boring than the ones that are generally being assumed. The main reason the Ravens' offense isn't working is found not down the field or outside the numbers but rather in the trenches, where the football answers are almost always found.
Explosive plays? The 2020 Ravens are actually a little bit better at those. Their explosive play rate last season was 6.2%, good for 18th in the NFL. This year, they're up to 6.4%, which ranks ninth.
Jackson outside the numbers? About the same. He's averaging 6.4 yards per attempt on throws outside the numbers, same as he did last season. His yards per completion on those throws is actually up from 9.5 to 10.8.
No, where you really see a difference in the Baltimore offense is in the run game and on early downs. That's where the Ravens are different from what they were in 2019.
The 2019 Ravens averaged 6.0 yards per play on first and second downs, which ranked seventh in the league. As a result, their average distance to go on third down was 6.6 yards, the third-lowest figure in the NFL. This year, they average just 5.1 yards per play on first and second downs, which ranks 25th, so they have 7.1 yards to go on third down, which ranks 24th.
The end result is that the 2020 Ravens aren't as good at sustaining drives as their 2019 predecessors were. Last year, Baltimore's average drive covered a league-best 39.7 yards. This year, that's down to 31.0 yards per drive, which ranks 24th. As you might expect, this affects their time of possession and average time per drive, both of which have dropped from first to 11th this season.
Now, it's hard to lay all of this on one event or one person, but it's hard to ignore the impact the offseason retirement of longtime guard Marshal Yanda has had on this offense. Last season, the Ravens averaged a league-high 56.6 yards per game on runs up the middle. It's 35.6 this season, which ranks 17th. Their average yards per rush on those runs is also down from 4.5 to 3.6.
The difference between second-and-5 and second-and-7, stretched out over 10 games, is significant. Football is a ground-acquisition game, and Baltimore simply isn't as good at acquiring ground as it was a year ago. There's no shame in this -- it was utterly awesome at it a year ago -- but if you're wondering where the problems lie, look to that line, where the Ravens haven't been able to replace Yanda, are struggling at center and even lost left tackle Ronnie Stanley to an injury a couple of weeks ago. They're thin at tight end, too, and that position was a big part of their rushing success a year ago. Jackson also hasn't been as effective as a runner as he was in 2019; he's averaging 5.6 yards per carry -- down from 6.9 a year ago -- and has rushed for only 30 first downs, down from 71 in 15 games last season.
Jackson might need more development as a passer, which is fair, since he's still only 23 years old. He might need better weapons at wide receiver. But those things were true last year, too, and the Ravens' offense set records. This year, the foundational things on which many of those records were set have crumbled a bit -- just enough to take their offense from otherworldly to ordinary, and possibly out of the playoff picture.
Two more notes ahead of Week 12's Sunday slate:
Philip Rivers on Frank Reich: 'A real substance to him'
I talked to Colts quarterback Philip Rivers last week for my preparation for Packers-Colts, and as is always the case with Rivers, I got a lot more than I could use on a single Sunday morning. One particularly interesting part of our conversation, I thought, was when I asked him what he thought about Frank Reich as a head coach, since he'd known him as an offensive coordinator once upon a time in San Diego.
Rivers gave a long answer. Believe it or not, this is an edited and cut-down version of it:
"He's very much the same as I remember him. Very steady. Very strong presence in front of the team and in the room. You never walk out of a meeting not knowing what the message is. And I think the value of his messages, his themes, is that they're bigger than football. So they directly apply to how we're going to win this week and this year and all that, but they also have value for guys in their home life, in their personal life and their life after football. And I think guys really appreciate that. There's a real substance to it, a real substance to him. You don't get a lot of football clichés. It's real and it's authentic, and I think that's why guys respond so well to him.
"One thing that's been consistent with him and his messages is that we really focus on the process. He told us in camp, 'We're not going to ride the wave of results. We're going to create our own wave with our process.' And that's so important, because it's so easy to get caught up in those highs and lows week to week. If you'd asked me after the Ravens game, I wouldn't have felt as good as I do this week. So you can get caught up in that, but you have to make sure you don't, and I think focusing on the process and trusting that, rather than letting the results dictate how you feel, I think that's a strong message. And I think the reason it's well received is we know he believes in it. It's not something he has to sell to us."
That's a long quote, but I wanted to share it because we're only about six weeks away from the time of year when teams are going to be firing and hiring head coaches. And when that process starts, you're going to hear a lot of talk about "offensive-minded" and "defensive-minded" coaches and which ones are preferable. Just remember: Reich is an offensive-minded coach, yes, but that's not what makes him a good head coach. This stuff -- the stuff Rivers is talking about -- is what makes a good head coach. Authentic leadership. Consistency of message. The ability to deliver the message in a way that connects with the players and your assistant coaches. The ability to set a tone for the team that your people can believe in.
I'm not saying these things are easy to find. Reich wasn't even the Colts' first choice, remember? Josh McDaniels was supposed to be their coach in 2018 but bailed on the deal after the Super Bowl and forced Indy to do a new search. They landed on Reich, and are thrilled they did. The stuff that makes him good at what he does is hard to identify in a typical six-hour or eight-hour NFL head-coaching job interview. But when you find it -- even when you stumble on it -- it's gold. Teams looking for coaches need to remember, as always, that they aren't looking for an offensive or defensive scheme genius or playcaller but a leader. Not easy to find, but that's why you see a half-dozen or more of these jobs come open every year.
No, the NFL isn't punishing the Steelers. It's 2020.
I have gotten a lot of questions, after the Ravens-Steelers game was postponed from Thursday to Sunday (and now will move to Tuesday), about the NFL's fairness and consistency in these matters. Why were the 49ers forced to play their Thursday night game a couple of weeks ago in spite of a COVID-19 outbreak that left them short-handed against the Packers and the Ravens get an extra couple of days to regroup? This is not fair, fans of the Niners seem to believe. And Steelers players were publicly expressing annoyance over the fact that they lost their bye week earlier this season when their game against the Titans had to be postponed due to an outbreak in Tennessee and now have lost their "mini-bye" due to a Ravens outbreak. Baltimore now has had at least a dozen players test positive for the coronavirus this week, and Sunday's game could be in doubt as well.
I get it. A lot of stuff that's going on this season seems unfair, and a lot of it actually is from certain perspectives. When viewed through the prism that Niners fans or Steelers players are using -- one that considers these things mainly (or only) in the manner in which they affect your specific team -- the inconveniences brought on by postponements and schedule adjustments feel wrong. There are players and fan bases around the NFL that are inclined to feel as if the league is biased against them, and when things like this happen, it feeds into that perception. That's just not the case.
And as for consistency on COVID-19 policies, it's foolish to think the procedures under which the league began the season would remain unchanged as the months went on and it learned more about where the problems would arise.
Earlier this year, it was easier to postpone games and rearrange schedules because there were bye weeks available and places on the calendar to put the games. That is no longer the case. Only two teams have yet to have their byes. The league is facing a crunch, at a time when the COVID-19 crisis is getting worse in our country, and getting games in is going to get tougher.
It's also important to understand that, given the knowledge that has been gathered over the course of the past four months about how the virus can enter a team facility and potentially spread throughout it, the league would be responding to incidents differently than it did in August or September. It might be that the Titans and Patriots postponements that occurred earlier this season wouldn't have been handled exactly the same if everyone had known then as much as they do now. These protocols have to evolve, because the NFL and everyone else entered the season uncertain as to the exact manner in which the virus would impact the season. They only knew that it would, and that they'd have to be prepared to react when it did.
I've had people ask me, "Why are the Steelers being punished if it's the Titans and Ravens who messed up?" The Steelers are not being "punished." At worst, they're being inconvenienced. Inconvenience is the order of the day. And just because one team had an outbreak doesn't mean yours can't be next. This virus is highly communicable and difficult to control, and there are many examples of people catching it in spite of taking precautions. The Steelers might be inconvenienced this week, but at least they aren't sick. Personally, I think it'd be nice to see more concern expressed over the Ravens players who tested positive than the Steelers players who had their game moved back three days.
This season was never going to be totally fair, and It's either this occasionally unfair season or no season at all. I truly believe the vast majority of the people involved are doing the best they can, and reaching Week 12 with every game played so far is an accomplishment unto itself. We won't know whether this season can really be completed until such time as it actually has. The rest of the ride is likely to be bumpy. It won't do any good to get worked up over what's fair and what's not.