You know it's 2020 when you're sitting down on a Sunday evening to write about the AFC East race and the fact that the Patriots' game hasn't kicked off yet doesn't make any difference.
Yes, folks, there is a race in the AFC East -- the division the Patriots have dominated since the turn of this century -- and New England is not one of the two teams in it.
Week 10 was wild, as it should be. We are entering a critical portion of the 2020 NFL schedule, with less than half a season to go and the shapes of the division races coming into clear relief. Some of them look as if they might not be races at all, as Pittsburgh and Green Bay roll on in the respective North divisions. One of them is in a flat-footed tie after the Colts beat the Titans in Thursday night's AFC South showdown.
So for this week's overreactions column, we picked the five close division races that were on display Sunday, starting with the two that were affected by the Kyler Murray-DeAndre Hopkins Hail Mary play at the end of the Bills-Cardinals game:
The Dolphins will win the AFC East
The Hopkins catch you've surely seen by now was over half of the Bills' defensive backs room and drove a stake into Buffalo's heart just ahead of its bye week. Moments earlier, Stefon Diggs had made an incredible catch in the opposite end zone to put Buffalo ahead by four points and on the doorstep of an 8-2 record. But Murray and Hopkins are superheroes, which means that just when it appeared they were done for, they did something completely incredible and came out on top.
We will get to them in a moment. Right now we are talking about the Bills, who instead go into the bye week at 7-3 off a bitterly disappointing loss and with the 6-3 Dolphins in their rearview mirror. If Miami wins next Sunday in Denver, this race is tied with six games to go.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Dolphins have won five in a row -- they took down the Chargers on Sunday -- and are 3-0 since making the move from Ryan Fitzpatrick to rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Their defense is playing at a high level and they make plays every week on special teams. Make no mistake, though: They've been better in key areas since the quarterback switch.
In three games with Tagovailoa as the starter, Miami has scored touchdowns on 8 of 10 red zone possessions, and he is 4-for-6 with four touchdowns on third-down red zone plays. In its first six games, it was 8-for-15 scoring touchdowns in the red zone, and Fitzpatrick was 1-for-6 with a touchdown and an interception on red zone third downs.
But here's the big thing: The Dolphins' next three games are at Denver, at the Jets and home to the Bengals. They will (and should) be favored in all three, and if they win them they'll be 9-3 heading into the final stretch of the season. Now, that stretch includes a home game against the Chiefs and a trip to Las Vegas, which are obviously tough matchups. But they do finish with a Week 17 game in Buffalo. Which means, if they can stay tied or in front, they can win the division on the field on the final Sunday.
The Bills, last-second losses notwithstanding, do look like the all-around better team. But the margin isn't massive, and Buffalo still has a cross-country trip to San Francisco, a road game in New England (which, sure, but the Bills haven't won there since 2016) and the Steelers at home. You don't need to be picking the Dolphins, but to say they can win the division is by no means an overreaction at this point.
The Cardinals will win the NFC West
About the team that beat Buffalo on Sunday. Kyler Murray is electrifying, a legitimate threat to extend the streak of breathtaking second-year quarterbacks winning the MVP award to three years in a row, and he has his team tied with the Rams and Seahawks atop the division. His eight games this season with at least one rushing touchdown and at least one passing touchdown tie the single-season record ... and he has seven games left to play.
The 6-3 Cardinals are on a tightrope, as their past three games have all been decided by a field goal or less, but they're right there with Seattle and L.A. as the race heats up.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. They have the division's best point differential, the division's best road record and a head-to-head victory over Seattle with a rematch looming Thursday night. They have won four of their past five games, losing only to those red-hot Dolphins during that stretch, and they still have two games left against NFC East teams (though, as we'll discuss in a second here, those might not be the pushovers they once appeared to be).
The defense needs to tighten up. They aren't going to win many games where they give up 30-plus points. But Seattle (6-3) is wobbling, having lost three of its past four, and the Seahawks' defense makes Arizona's look like the '85 Bears. The Rams also are 6-3, but four of those wins are against that NFC East, and they just won their first division game by beating Seattle on Sunday. It's hard to know for sure how good they are.
The opportunity is there for the Cardinals, who have a lot less playoff-race experience than the other teams in their division. But they're stacking confidence-builders and if they complete their season sweep of the Seahawks on Thursday night, you have to think they're in the driver's seat. The only problem? Russell Wilson is 32-9 in his career in games immediately following a Seattle loss -- the best such record of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era other than Tom Brady.
The Giants will win the NFC East
The Giants? The 3-7 team that has lost more games over the past four seasons than any other team in the entire league? Yes, those Giants. Don't look now, but Sunday's victory over first-place Philadelphia moved Big Blue within a game-and-a-half of the division lead. Daniel Jones has played two games in a row without turning the ball over, which might have been cause for a ticker-tape parade in less socially distant times. This wasn't some kind of fluky, bad-bounce win. The Giants looked better than the Eagles, who are now 3-5-1, and Jones looked like a better quarterback than Carson Wentz, whose inexplicably miserable season continues.
Entering this week, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) had the Giants' chances of winning the division at 6%. But as ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder pointed out, those chances would jump to something in the 60-65% range if they were to win five of their final seven games -- as long as one of those wins came Sunday against the Eagles. It did, and now they have their bye next week to rest up before a winnable Week 12 trip to Cincinnati.
Perhaps most importantly: No team has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons since the Andy Reid Eagles did it in 2003-04, and the Eagles are the current defending division champions. Hope lives.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Here comes old Graziano, raining on Big Blue's parade just like he used to do when he covered the team. I hear you. And please believe me when I say I really like what the Giants are doing under Joe Judge. They play hard. They've been in every game except the one where the 49ers' backups blew them out at home. No matter how this season finishes, Giants fans have to feel good about where things are headed -- especially if Jones really can get the turnovers under control.
But the remaining schedule is not easy. After that Bengals game, their next four games are against teams that have winning records -- at Seattle, home to the Cardinals, home to the Browns and at the Ravens. Say they split those four, beat the Bengals in Week 12 and beat the Cowboys in Week 17. That gets them to 7-9, which honestly could be good enough to win the NFC East. But I still think this is a team that, as hard as it plays, is going to be outmanned more weeks than not. I do not think Jones has made his last killer turnover of the season. And while I cannot explain to you what is wrong with Wentz, it still looks to me like the Eagles -- who are still in front of the Giants by a game-and-a-half, remember -- are getting healthier and have the best chance of anyone in this division to field a truly competitive team the rest of the way.
Sunday's win was great. Winning two in a row is great. But don't lose sight of how far this Giants roster still has to go -- in the short term and the long.
The Buccaneers will win the NFC South
All was right again in the world of Tom Brady, Bruce Arians & Co. on Sunday after a dominant Tampa Bay victory over Carolina. This was a game that answered "Heck, yeah!" to the question of whether Brady can keep all of his receivers happy. Chris Godwin had six catches for 92 yards. Mike Evans had six for 77 and a touchdown. Antonio Brown had seven for 69. Rob Gronkowski caught a touchdown pass. Running back Ronald Jones ran 98 yards for a touchdown.
This was the Tampa Bay offense functioning the way it always hoped it would and believed it could, putting its doubters on the bench for a week and keeping pace with first-place New Orleans, which won its sixth game in a row and remains in first place by a half-game.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. They still have to pass the Saints outright, because the Saints beat them twice. But while the Saints did beat the 49ers on Sunday, the news out of New Orleans was not excellent for the home team. Quarterback Drew Brees left the game at halftime with a rib injury and the severity remains unknown. Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill took it from there, and presumably the quarterback position would be some mishmash of those two for however long Brees would theoretically miss.
The Saints (7-2) have both of their Falcons games remaining, trips to Denver, Philly and Carolina plus home games against the Chiefs and the suddenly surging Vikings. Manageable, yes, but less so without Brees. Tampa Bay (7-3), meanwhile, doesn't have to leave home again until Dec. 20. It has home games against the Rams and Chiefs the next two weeks, then a bye, then a home game against the Vikings before finishing with two Falcons games wrapped around a trip to Detroit.
Nothing's easy, but not having to get on a plane for more than a month is a nice treat for a veteran team in the final third of the season. Especially if Brees has to miss time, a Buccaneers comeback division title is not remotely out of the question.
The Raiders will win the AFC West
The Raiders are 6-3, which puts them two games behind first-place Kansas City (8-1). But they beat the Chiefs earlier this season, which means that if they can do that again next week they will be just one game behind and hold the critical tiebreaker. Sunday's 37-12 victory over Denver was impressive. The Raiders picked off Broncos quarterback Drew Lock four times. As a team, they had only three interceptions in the first eight weeks.
Offensively, this game was Jon Gruden's dream -- 203 rushing yards as a team, including 112 from 2019 first-round pick Josh Jacobs. No turnovers. A whopping 36:38 time of possession. Las Vegas has won three in a row and four of its past five and seems to be sticking to its formula pretty reliably. The Raiders are a legit playoff contender.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Look, they could beat the Chiefs again next week. Their Week 5 victory in Kansas City was no fluke. They played them the way they wanted to play them -- grinding out yards, keeping Patrick Mahomes on the sideline for long stretches, grinding out tough yards on the ground to set up big downfield throws by Derek Carr. They will not be afraid. They will be at home. They absolutely can win the game.
But even if they do win the game, they'd still be a game behind the Chiefs with six to go. Tiebreakers only help if you're tied, and no one else has shown they can beat the Chiefs this season. All due respect for what the Raiders are doing, but (A) there's a pretty good chance the Chiefs come out next week mad about what happened in Week 5 and kick their butts and, (B) even if they don't, they're still the Chiefs. And the champs. I like their chances of winning the division for the fifth year in a row.