We're halfway through the 2020 NFL season. Do you know where your favorite team's playoff chances stand? For some, it's straightforward. The Steelers? Yeah, you're going dancing. The Jets? Better luck next year. But for the folks in the middle, the future may be murkier.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is here to help. Using FPI's 20,000 daily simulations, we can lock in certain results to get a better sense of what playoff hopes look like for every team and see what games those hopes really hinge on. That's what we're doing today: playing the scenario game with a few of those whose path to the postseason exists but is far from guaranteed. Let's take a look at key matchups on the slate and how they might play a part of which teams head to the playoffs.
Note: The following projections assume the current playoff format remains intact and do not consider the possibility of an expanded playoff in the event the regular season cannot be completed.
Could the Minnesota Vikings still reach the playoffs?
FPI says: Yes, they could
After crashing pretty hard to start the season, Minnesota is maybe back in this thing? FPI, which really never lost faith in the 3-5 Vikings to begin with, doesn't think it's a reach.
Let's start with whether they'll sweep the Bears. If Minnesota can win Monday in Chicago and then again while hosting the Bears in December, you're looking at almost a 50/50 shot (47%) of getting into the playoffs. Those are Minnesota's two highest-leverage games of the season, which makes sense -- both teams are vying for wild-card spots. A loss in either of those games drops the Vikings' chances to 16%.
Eight wins probably won't cut it for the Vikings in the NFC, even with a seventh seed, as FPI gives Minnesota just a 10% shot to reach the playoffs with a .500 record. At nine wins, though, that number jumps way up, but it depends heavily on whom the losses are against. If the losses come at the hands of unideal opponents -- say the Bears and Bucs -- the Vikings would have a 59% chance of reaching the postseason. But if they lose two games instead to non-wild-card contenders like the Cowboys and Lions, the Vikings would fly all the way up to 87%.
The long story short, the Vikings need to win nine games and make sure to beat the Bears twice along the way.
What would it take to make the Baltimore Ravens the AFC North favorite?
FPI says: Not that much
Baltimore heads to Pittsburgh for Thanksgiving, and if the Ravens end up feasting on TV, all they will need is one guaranteed win to overtake the Steelers. So if the Ravens beat the Steelers and then win, for example, at home against Dallas in the following week, Baltimore edges out the divisional projection, 49.8% to 49.4%.
That's despite the fact that we've only locked in a single loss for the Steelers (compared to the Ravens' current two). And if we lock in a more difficult second win than one over the Cowboys, the Ravens become stronger favorites. A win over the Steelers and at the Patriots next week gives Baltimore a 54%-45% edge over Pittsburgh.
These scenarios are giving me similar vibes to our single simulation of the season from August, in which the Steelers started off the year with the best record in the league before losing to the Ravens in Week 12 and ultimately failing to hold on to the division. It might just go that way.
Which games will swing the playoff picture the most?
FPI says: Two intradivisional Las Vegas Raiders games
Dolphins-Raiders in Week 16 and Colts-Raiders in Week 14 are the two highest combined leverage games remaining this season. There's more at stake in terms of reaching the playoffs for the teams playing in those games than any other.
If Las Vegas coach Jon Gruden manages to pull off wins in both, the Raiders would be sitting pretty with an 88% chance to reach the postseason. But a loss in both games? It would drop Las Vegas all the way down to 19%.
And those contests matter for the opponents, too. A win for the Colts in Week 14 puts them at 66% to make the postseason, whereas a loss drops their chances to 34%. For the Dolphins, its 35% after a loss in Week 16 versus 71% with a win.
Could the New York Giants win the NFC East?
FPI says: It's theoretically possible, but they better win this week
The Giants' chances at the division are already at a tiny 6% even in the sad, sad NFC East. They are 2-7 and haven't given much reason for optimism in the second half.
But here's the good news: Winning five of their seven remaining games, to give them a 7-9 record, probably lands them the division, as long as one of those wins comes against the Eagles on Sunday.
If the Eagles beat Joe Judge's team this weekend, the Giants' chances of winning the NFC East would drop to 1%. But if the Giants somehow win their five easiest games -- meaning they beat the Eagles in Week 10 and lose only at the Seahawks and at the Ravens the rest of the way -- they would have somewhere in the 60-65%-chance range to win the division.
Who would earn the No. 1 pick if the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars each finish 1-15?
FPI says: Most likely the Jaguars
It's not certain because the tiebreaker is strength of schedule based on opponents' records, and that tiebreaker remains in flux. It's also too specific of a scenario for us to put an exact number on. But suffice it to say that the Jaguars would be roughly 80/20 favorites to land the No. 1 pick if both teams finished with a single win.
The interesting thing is that puts each team's fates on the shoulders of their opponents. A game to watch in this scenario: Patriots at Texans on Nov. 22. That's a contest between a team that plays the Jets twice and a team that plays the Jaguars twice, so that would at the very least swing the odds. The Jets ought to be rooting for the Texans (to reduce the Patriots' win percentage), and the Jaguars should be cheering on New England.
Could Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots pull off the incredible?
FPI says: A wild-card berth is not impossible but unlikely
After a Jets implosion handed New England its third win of the season, the Patriots have about a 1-in-10 shot at reaching the playoffs. If we lock in wins against their two toughest opponents -- the Ravens on Sunday and then at the Rams in December -- their chances grow to 30%, still not super positive. And those don't feel like winnable games for the Patriots.
There is a path, though. In fact, if the Patriots win each of their next four games, they would become more likely than not (57%) to reach the playoffs. But come back to us after that happens. Because 96% of the time, our projections say that won't happen.
So yes, a wild-card spot is possible. But it's more than three times more likely that the Patriots end up drafting in the top 10.
What about the 3-6 Atlanta Falcons?
FPI says: Not this year
According to FPI, Atlanta falls short 99.2% of the time, even after winning three of its last four games.
What are the most likely playoff combinations?
The NFC is so up in the air that there isn't a single playoff configuration that has a full 1% of occurring. That said, some combinations are still far more likely than others, so we've listed out the five most likely configurations in each conference. The AFC is slightly more predictable, as the most likely exact configuration has a 1.6% chance of happening.
An important note: Don't mistake these for projections -- those can be found right here.