Sports commentators with hot takes like to believe there's a clear dichotomy between Super Bowl contenders and pretenders. In reality, it doesn't work that way. Every team in the NFL has its strengths and weaknesses, and there are a number of teams that could win the Super Bowl every year. Some teams have better odds than others, but there isn't a clear demarcation between the teams that can win it all and the teams that can't. Sometimes, as with last year's Chiefs, a team will finish up a strong multiyear run with a title. Sometimes, as with the 2011 Giants or 2012 Ravens, those teams you didn't think were true contenders will come out of nowhere to win it all in February.
Below we're going to look at this year's top dozen Super Bowl contenders and their current chances to win it all, along with the biggest strength for each team and the biggest weakness that might keep that team from winning the title. Note that these Super Bowl chances use a Football Outsiders simulation based on our DVOA metric, which will be a little different from ESPN's simulation based on FPI. Our simulation is based on ratings that combine opponent-adjusted performance so far this season with preseason data to get the best estimate of how well teams will play the rest of the way. We're more conservative about the gap between the best teams and the average teams, so the Super Bowl chances for the top teams will be higher than in ESPN's simulation.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1): 14.4%
Kansas City currently ranks just sixth in DVOA, but the Chiefs are second in our DAVE ratings that also incorporate preseason data. In addition, a lack of competition in their division (sorry, we're not high on the Las Vegas Raiders despite their head-to-head win) makes Kansas City the only team in the NFL with an over 80% chance of a division title right now, and no team in the AFC has a stronger chance of getting the important first-round bye as the No. 1 seed.
Biggest strength: As always, the passing game. Kansas City is No. 1 in pass offense DVOA and Patrick Mahomes is No. 2 in QBR, narrowly trailing Aaron Rodgers. The most remarkable thing about the Kansas City offense is that Mahomes simply doesn't have bad games. Even his down games are above average; Mahomes has never had a game with QBR below 50. And Mahomes is at his best when the Chiefs really need him to move the chains. This is the third straight year that the Chiefs have ranked No. 1 in pass offense DVOA on third and fourth downs.
Biggest weakness: As always, the run defense. Kansas City is fourth in DVOA against the pass, but the Chiefs come out as 27th against the run. The Chiefs are one of only three defenses that have allowed better efficiency on the ground than through the air. (Miami and Detroit are the other two.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2): 12.1%
Surprise! Tampa Bay is the clear No. 1 in our DVOA ratings after its dominant victory over Green Bay earned the highest rating of any single game this year. With two losses so far, Tampa Bay isn't the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (Seattle is) but our numbers have the Bucs as the favorites should they make it that far. (And, as of Friday night, the Bucs added Antonio Brown, who could make his debut in Week 9.)
Biggest strength: The entire defense. Tampa Bay is now No. 1 in the league in defensive DVOA after shutting down Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Green Bay offense. The Bucs don't have a historically great defense like New England and San Francisco had in the first two months of last year, but this week they did move into the top 20 defenses we've ever measured through six games (since 1985). Even more impressive is the fact that Tampa Bay is playing its "worst" defense in the situations that are less stable and predictive going forward. The Bucs rank eighth in DVOA on third downs and seventh in the red zone despite being first overall.
Biggest weakness: It's hard to find one right now. The Bucs' offense ranks in the DVOA top 10 both passing and rushing the ball. The special teams are close to average, which isn't really a weakness, especially given the natural variability of special-teams play. The closest thing to a weakness is probably Tampa Bay's offensive line. The Bucs rank just 10th in pass block win rate and 14th in run block win rate. Based on ESPN's metrics, the weakness is on the right side. Although Tristan Wirfs has looked good as a rookie, he ranks just 43rd in pass block win rate among tackles. And right guard Alex Cappa ranks just 39th among guards.
Baltimore Ravens (5-1): 11.5%
Despite their loss to Kansas City, the Ravens have the best point differential in the league so far. They rank second in DVOA and third if we incorporate preseason data.
Biggest strength: Baltimore special teams are easily No. 1 in the league so far this year. The Ravens' special-teams DVOA is nearly twice that of any other team, and Baltimore has positive value in all five areas of special teams that we track. Baltimore is the rare team that is consistently good in special teams, which are usually very inconsistent.
Biggest weakness: So far this year, it's the passing game led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, which ranks just 20th in the league in DVOA. Jackson ranks ninth in QBR, which incorporates his running performance, but only 23rd in passing DVOA, which does not. Three of Baltimore's top four wide receivers have negative receiving DVOA, with the exception being rookie Devin Duvernay. Baltimore is particularly bad, averaging just 4.8 net yards per play, when Jackson drops back to pass on second-and-long (7 or more yards to go).
Seattle Seahawks (5-0): 11.0%
The Seahawks get the first-round bye in 36% of our simulations right now, the highest rate in the league. They're in a tough division, but they have a 1.5-game lead on the Rams and Cardinals, and they are the only NFC West team with a below-average remaining schedule based on the DVOA of their remaining opponents.
Biggest strength: The passing game led by quarterback Russell Wilson. Seattle is third in DVOA passing the ball and eighth rushing the ball, which combines to make the Seahawks our No. 1 offense so far. Despite the relative efficiency of the running game, it's the imbalance between the two that makes Seattle No. 1 overall. Because passing is much more efficient than running, and Seattle is passing more this year than in years past, the Seahawks' overall rating is higher than in years past. It pays to let Russ cook.
Biggest weakness: Pass coverage in the secondary. Seattle has allowed 296 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. No other defense in the league comes within 80 yards of that figure. Top cornerback Shaquill Griffin is allowing a 70% completion rate with 9.1 yards per target according to Sports Info Solutions charting. Tre Flowers is allowing an 84% completion rate with 12.0 yards per target.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0): 9.7%
Pittsburgh is third in DVOA behind Tampa Bay and Baltimore, the best rating for the three remaining undefeated teams. However, competing with Baltimore for the AFC North title hurts both teams' chances of getting a playoff home game.
Biggest strength: Defensive front. Name a stat that tries to measure the defensive front, and the Steelers are near the top of the league. They rank No. 1 in both adjusted line yards allowed and run stop win rate. They're also No. 1 in adjusted sack rate and No. 2 in pass rush win rate. Obviously, inside linebacker Devin Bush (torn ACL) is a major loss, but the Steelers have enough talent up front to continue to rank among the league's best units.
Biggest weakness: Defensive coverage. The Steelers have been a very well-rounded team this year, ranking in the top 10 of DVOA for all three phases of the game. But they do have an issue allowing a lot of yardage when the pass rush doesn't get to the quarterback, especially when you adjust for their easy schedule so far this year. Pittsburgh ranks 30th in DVOA covering wide receivers, and 31st in DVOA on deep passes (16 or more yards downfield). Joe Haden, Mike Hilton and Steven Nelson have each allowed over 8.0 yards per target.
New Orleans Saints (3-2): 7.2%
Despite two losses for New Orleans, DVOA ranks the Saints seventh so far this year, in part because they've played a top-five schedule based on average DVOA of opponent. The incorporation of preseason data in our simulations also helps the Saints in our Super Bowl odds because we had them with our top projection coming into the season.
Biggest strength: Run defense. The Saints rank fourth in DVOA against the run, including No. 1 against the run on first downs. Opponents are constantly putting themselves into bad down-and-distance situations by running against the Saints on first down.
Biggest weakness: The stagnant pass game. You might be surprised to see that Drew Brees has climbed up to eighth in QBR -- he's not quite cooked yet -- but the Saints' passing game as a whole ranks just 14th in DVOA. In particular, they aren't getting consistent yardage when they pass on first downs, ranking just 23rd in DVOA. Compare that to 2019, when the Saints ranked No. 1 passing the ball on first down.
Tennessee Titans (5-0): 5.3%
Close wins (four by less than a touchdown) put the Titans lower than the other two undefeated teams in DVOA. They currently rank eighth.
Biggest strength: Play-action passing. The Titans are currently second in the league in pass offense DVOA, and that's powered by their incredible performance when they use a play-action fake. Ryan Tannehill is averaging a league-leading 10.1 yards per dropback with play-action, and his 92.0 QBR with play-action ranks him behind only Josh Allen. This is a continuation of last year's astonishing performance with play-action, which we expected to regress to the mean. Last year, Tannehill averaged an incredible 12.3 yards per dropback with play-action. That number has regressed to the mean -- but it's still No. 1 in the league despite the regression.
Biggest weakness: Pass defense. There are struggles all around here, both in pass rush and pass coverage, and it results in the Titans ranking 24th in pass defense DVOA. Tennessee is just 22nd in pass rush win rate and just 31st in adjusted sack rate with only seven sacks in five games. However, even when they do pressure the quarterback, the Titans allow a 56% completion rate (27th in the NFL) and 4.67 net yards per dropback (26th in the NFL).
Indianapolis Colts (4-2): 4.8%
This is the team with the biggest disagreement between our odds and the odds based on ESPN FPI, which don't even put the Colts in the top half of the league. DVOA likes that the Colts have some big wins and played better than the final result in their Week 5 loss to Cleveland. But their schedule is about to get much harder. They go from the easiest schedule so far (by average DVOA of opponent) to the fourth-hardest schedule remaining.
Biggest strength: Pass coverage. The Colts had the best defense in the league for the first couple of weeks of the season and still rank third in defensive DVOA, including third against the pass. (They're sixth against the run.) The Colts are average in pressure rate and rank 23rd in pass rush win rate, but the pass coverage is winning nonetheless. In particular, they've shut down opposing tight ends, allowing them just a 47% catch rate with 22 yards per game. And veteran Xavier Rhodes, coming off a dismal last year in Minnesota, has had a fantastic rebound season, allowing just 6.4 yards per target with a 41% completion rate in coverage according to Sports Info Solutions.
Biggest weakness: The whole Indianapolis offense has been a bit disappointing, but the wide receivers might be the most disappointing part of it. Rookie Michael Pittman Jr. has missed part of the season with a calf injury -- the Colts hope to get him back after a Week 7 bye -- and second-year receiver Parris Campbell has a knee injury. Meanwhile, we rank starters Zach Pascal and T.Y. Hilton 58th and 64th in value, respectively, among 73 receivers with at least 24 targets so far this year. Hilton's performance is particularly discouraging: a career-low 40 yards per game with no touchdowns, although he does have a "hidden" 56 yards on four defensive pass interference flags.
Green Bay Packers (4-1): 4.4%
The big loss to Tampa Bay dropped the Packers from sixth to 12th in DVOA. Preseason data also lowers them in our playoff odds simulation because the underlying data from last year's team was not as good as last year's 13-3 record.
Biggest strength: Yes, he was bad against Tampa Bay, but quarterback Aaron Rodgers still stands out as the biggest strength on the Green Bay roster. The Packers dropped to sixth in passing DVOA, but Rodgers is still No. 1 in QBR. He has excelled this season despite getting just three games each out of his two best receivers, Davante Adams and Allen Lazard.
Biggest weakness: Despite the presence of standout players such as Za'Darius Smith and Jaire Alexander, the entire Green Bay defense has been a weakness so far this year. The Packers rank 30th in defensive DVOA, although that's somewhat biased by the fact that they've faced so many passes due to taking big leads into the second half. If we split things into pass and run, Green Bay ranks 25th against each. Some of this bad rating comes because Green Bay allowed opposing offenses to ride roughshod once the Packers had taken those big leads and were playing prevent defense, but that's not the only time Green Bay's defense has played poorly. The Packers' defense also ranks 30th in DVOA in the first quarter of games. And Green Bay so far has the worst defensive DVOA in the league in the red zone.
Los Angeles Rams (4-2): 4.2%
The Rams are currently ninth in DVOA and eighth in our ratings that incorporate preseason data. Like Indianapolis, they are about to face a much tougher schedule, going from 30th so far to third the rest of the way.
Biggest strength: The Rams' biggest strength right now is their ground game, which ranks No. 1 in the league by DVOA. That might seem like a surprise when the Rams don't even rank in the top 10 for yards per carry, but the secret to this year's Rams is consistency. The Rams lead the league with a 52% success rate, denoting running plays that gain at least 45% of needed yardage on first down, 60% on second down or 100% on third or fourth down. And unlike in past years, the Rams aren't necessarily gaining yardage by manipulating box counts. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, the Rams have run a league-leading 50 times with eight or more defenders in the box.
Biggest weakness: Run defense. The Rams rank 17th in run stop win rate and 21st in run defense DVOA. The defensive front ranks even worse, 28th, in adjusted line yards. They've stuffed just 10% of opposing running back carries for a loss or no gain, which ranks 31st in the NFL.
Chicago Bears (5-1): 3.2%
Chicago is just 14th in DVOA, but an early season full of close wins gives the Bears a leg up on a playoff spot.
Biggest strength: What else is new, it's pass defense, where the Bears rank second in DVOA trailing only Tampa Bay. This seems to be more about pass coverage than pass rush, as the Bears are just 20th in pass rush win rate and 22nd in pressure rate. However, the Bears rank second in DVOA when covering opposing No. 1 receivers and sixth in DVOA when covering opposing No. 2s. They also rank No. 1 when covering running backs in the passing game.
Biggest weakness: Quarterback is the Bears' most important weakness, but the running game is probably the Bears' biggest weakness. Chicago ranks 24th in DVOA passing the ball, but even worse at 28th running the ball. It's difficult to tell where the fault lies on this one. Chicago is dead last with just 2.07 average yards before contact per rush, but is that an issue of the offensive line not making holes or of running back David Montgomery not making it to the holes before they close up? The individual parts of the running game all rank better than the whole. For example, Chicago is 18th in run block win rate and 13th in adjusted line yards, while Sports Info Solutions has charted Montgomery with 13 missed tackles, tied for 14th in the league.
Arizona Cardinals (4-2): 3.1%
Arizona moved up to 10th in total DVOA following Monday night's blowout win over Dallas. Like their division rivals in San Francisco and Los Angeles, the Cardinals will face a much tougher schedule moving forward.
Biggest strength: It might be their unheralded offensive line, especially when it comes to run blocking. The Cardinals rank second in rushing DVOA behind the Rams and lead the league with 4.27 average yards before contact. No other offense is above 3.66. The Cardinals rank third in both pass block win rate and run block win rate. Sports Info Solutions puts four of the five Cardinals linemen among the league's top 40 linemen in its "Total Points Earned" metric, including left guard Justin Pugh, who is tied for second in the league.
Biggest weakness: Nobody would have expected this before the season, but right now the biggest weakness might be quarterback Kyler Murray as a passer. It makes a little sense if you watched Arizona stomp Dallas on Monday night despite Murray going just 9-for-24 throwing the ball. QBR puts Murray 10th in the NFL this year, but remember, that includes his very impressive rushing value. The Cardinals rank only 18th in pass offense DVOA (which includes scrambles) and Murray is 21st in individual passing DVOA (which does not). Murray is struggling in particular on third downs, where Arizona ranks just 28th in passing DVOA.
In Murray's defense, his struggles might be more about the scheme than his own inaccuracy; NFL Next Gen Stats says Murray has a positive (2.0%) completion percentage over expectation.
The rest
Other contenders who win the Super Bowl in at least 1 out of every 100 simulations: Buffalo 2.1%, San Francisco 1.3%, New England 1.0%.