Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season brings us a coronavirus pandemic-postponed matchup that a couple of weeks later has gotten even juicier.
With some moving around of the schedule, the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0) and Tennessee Titans (5-0) will meet in Nashville on Sunday. Now they're two of only three undefeated teams, and the only two in the AFC.
So we asked our panel of experts for their thoughts on that matchup and their thoughts on the league's other unbeaten team, the Seattle Seahawks (5-0). They also weigh in on biggest potential upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers, as well as talk about which player in a new environment has made the most impact.
Quick links:
Schedule | Depth charts | PickCenter
What's your top upset pick for Week 7?
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Bengals (+3.5) over Browns. These teams met in Week 2, and the result was a shootout that ended with the Browns slipping by with a 35-30 victory. Cleveland has won more games since but is coming off a 38-7 beatdown by the Steelers in which struggling Baker Mayfield was removed from the game. Bengals QB Joe Burrow, meanwhile, continues to shine, and Cincinnati very likely has the edge at the position in this game. I expect the home underdog Bengals to slip by with a 25-24 upset.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Giants (+4) over Eagles. New York is in almost every game, and maybe on this one occasion Daniel Jones will avoid that backbreaking mistake. The Eagles are one of the most injured teams in the league and things are getting ugly in Philly.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Bengals (+3.0) over Browns. They played them tough in Week 2, showed they could score on them and have been sooooo close too many times this year. In that game, Nick Chubb ran for two touchdowns and Baker Mayfield threw for two. Chubb won't play in this one and ... will Mayfield? And if so, is that a good thing for Cleveland?
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Niners (+2.5) over Patriots. The Niners' pass defense has been ravaged by injuries, but the likes of Kerry Hyder, Jason Verrett and Emmanuel Moseley have stepped up. The run defense, which ranks sixth in efficiency, is well equipped to stop New England's ground attack.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Lions (+3) over Falcons. Since Week 3 when Kenny Golladay returned, Matthew Stafford has recorded a 79.8 QBR -- seventh-best in the league -- and Golladay's catch rate over expectation (per Next Gen Stats data) is +9. One good game from Atlanta's defense last week doesn't change my belief that's a very bad unit overall.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Bears (+6) over Rams. The Bears know they lack style points, but what they lack in style points they have made up for in wins this season. They're 5-1 and play downright stingy defense. There's no better stage to show they are for real than Monday Night Football.
5-0 Pittsburgh Steelers at 5-0 Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Who are you taking?
Clay: Titans. This is a tough call, but I'll give a slight edge to the home team. The Tennessee offense is red hot, having scored 33, 31, 42 and 42 points during its past four games. The Steelers have put up 26-plus points in all five of their games, though this will be their first road game since Week 1. Interestingly, both teams have faced four teams with losing records and dominated the only game against a winning team (Titans over Bills, Steelers over Browns).
Fowler: Steelers. The Titans are rolling offensively but haven't faced a defense quite like Pittsburgh's, which allows 66.2 rushing yards per game. The Steelers have the versatility to beat teams in different ways -- with sacks, with turnovers, with James Conner and the running game, or clutch third-down plays from Ben Roethlisberger.
Graziano: Steelers. Almost impossible to pick this game. The winner will be able to claim it's the top team in the AFC, if not the entire league. I'm giving Pittsburgh the slight edge because of its pass-rush -- especially after Tennessee just lost left tackle Taylor Lewan to a torn ACL.
Kimes: Steelers. Both teams are incredibly balanced, but I think Pittsburgh's defense, which has been among the best in the league vs. the run and play action, is well equipped to thwart the Titans' offense, which leans heavily on both.
Walder: Steelers. I'll predict a multi-sack game for T.J. Watt, who likely will be going against Dennis Kelly -- who ranks 48th among tackles in pass block win rate -- and pursuing a sack-prone quarterback in Ryan Tannehill.
Yates: Titans. Because of the disrespect Derrick Henry frequently distributes to defensive players, it's easy to assess the Titans as a smashmouth football team. They are, but they're also an incredibly explosive one, as they've scored at least four touchdowns in four straight games and Ryan Tannehill is a downright problem for defenses. Give me Tennessee in a tight one.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 7.
Clay: Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals. Higgins has been targeted at least six times in each of the Bengals' past five games. The second-round rookie scored two touchdowns in Week 3 and has followed up with three consecutive games over 60 receiving yards. That includes a career-high 125 yards against the Colts on Sunday. Higgins is on the WR3 radar this week against a Browns defense getting crushed by wide receivers.
Fowler: D'Andre Swift, RB, Lions. Swift finally delivered with 116 yards and two scores against Jacksonville, and though Adrian Peterson's potential workload looms large, Swift is making a case to be the lead guy. A run-first attack could catalyze the Lions and alleviate pressure on Matthew Stafford to win shootouts.
Graziano: La'Mical Perine, RB, Jets. The Chiefs just ran for 245 yards against the Bills on Monday night. And while no one is ever going to confuse the Jets' offense with the Chiefs' offense, the Buffalo defense doesn't look quite locked in enough to get things fixed on a short week. Perine is going to play more of a role as the Jets' lost season rolls along. Might as well start it now against a vulnerable Buffalo front.
Kimes: Darren Fells, TE, Texans. Watson targeted Fells seven times last week, for 85 yards and a touchdown; this week, he faces a Packers defense that just got lit up by Rob Gronkowski and has struggled vs. tight ends all year.
Walder: Travis Fulgham, WR, Eagles. It's time to throw him in the starting lineup, even though he'll spend some time against James Bradberry, who has looked good for the Giants. Over the past two weeks Fulgham ranks third in expected completed air yards among all receivers using NFL Next Gen Stats' model. That kind of opportunity is too good to turn down.
Yates: Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers. With three games of at least 20 points in his four starts, Herbert will soon be testing the limits of being considered a fringe starter. He should be in lineups this week with an incredible matchup against the Jaguars, who are struggling to do much well at all defensively this season. The Jaguars are allowing more than 400 yards and 30 points per game this season.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Clay: Darius Slayton, WR, Giants. Slayton has put together back-to-back solid fantasy performances with 129 yards against Dallas in Week 5 and 41 yards and a score against Washington in Week 6. Life will be much tougher this week with Darius Slay shadow coverage likely. Slay has been a bright spot on a struggling Eagles team this season, showing very well despite tough shadow assignments against the likes of Terry McLaurin and A.J. Green.
Fowler: Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders. The Buccaneers' run defense is approaching legendary status. No tailback has broken the 60-yard rushing barrier on Tampa, which has faced Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara through six weeks. Jacobs can get tough yards, but Darren Waller seems like the safer fantasy play from Las Vegas' offense.
Graziano: Allen Robinson II, WR, Bears. The Rams have been very tough against wide receivers for fantasy purposes, and if they've watched any tape at all they know Nick Foles is looking for Robinson on just about every dropback. I think this is a really rough game for Chicago's offense overall, and it could be for those using Robinson as their fantasy WR1.
Kimes: Mike Davis, RB, Panthers. Davis has been awesome in Christian McCaffrey's stead -- but against a Saints defense that has struggled in many ways but continues to be stout against the run, I think he'll see his performance dip. Running backs are averaging just 3.55 yards per carry against New Orleans this year, and they've played some solid ones.
Walder: Devonta Freeman, RB, Giants. In a game in which his team is an underdog, Freeman will have to go against the third-best run stop win rate squad in the league in the Eagles. Brandon Graham, who has had a nice resurgence overall this season, ranks second among qualifying edge players in RSWR.
Yates: D'Andre Swift, RB, Lions. I hope so badly that I am wrong on this. Swift was awesome in Week 6 and clearly the Lions' most explosive back, but he did play one fewer snap than Adrian Peterson in that game, and Peterson finished with 15 rushing attempts and a score. The matchup does sound good on paper, but Atlanta just contained Alexander Mattison to the tune of just 26 rushing yards filling in for Dalvin Cook.
Which player who changed teams in the offseason has been the best addition?
Clay: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay hasn't managed double-digit wins since 2010 and hasn't made the playoffs since 2007. It appears both statistics will need to be updated in a couple months. Brady has Tampa Bay sitting atop the NFC South at 4-2 following Sunday's 38-10 victory over the previously undefeated Packers. Brady is on pace for 40 touchdowns and 10.7 interceptions, compared to the 34 touchdowns and 30 interceptions posted by Jameis Winston in 2019.
Fowler: Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers. How often does a player use free agency to catapult from role player to top-10 receiver in a year? No longer just a deep threat, Anderson is pacing for an obscene 107 catches and 1,509 yards through his first six games in Carolina, while his former team, the New York Jets, is allergic to the end zone.
Graziano: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's a pretty grim list -- a fact that surely will be forgotten when everybody is going wild over free agency next March. Most of the best signings were re-signings. You could make a case for either of the big WR trades -- DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona or Stefon Diggs in Buffalo -- but Brady is the clear call here, as he has elevated the Bucs to contender status.
Kimes: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brady's statistics don't leap off the page, but one thing that jumps out to me is 15.9% -- that's the rate at which he has been pressured, which is the lowest in the NFL. Some of that stems from the excellent play of the offensive line, and some of it can be attributed to Brady's quick release, which makes their jobs easier. He has made the offense click and protected the football.
Walder: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's a snoozy answer, but I can't not. He has actually posted only a 66.6 QBR this season, but that's often good enough to get the win when paired with all the talent on that Tampa defense. That should be enough to get into the playoffs and maybe win the division. That Brady has shown his upside on his best days -- such as Sunday against the Packers -- means the Bucs are a legitimate Super Bowl threat.
Yates: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. My colleagues have all laid out worthwhile cases for Brady, many with a statistical hook. I will lay out a less quantifiable case: He immediately changed the culture in Tampa Bay, instilling a resilience that is infectious and contagious. You don't become the greatest to ever do it without a mindset that drives you and brings the best out of those around you, too. We're seeing that already in Tampa.
Are you buying or selling the Seahawks as the NFC's best team?
Clay: Buying. Seattle has turned to an extremely pass-heavy offense this season, which has opened the door for an MVP run by superstar QB Russell Wilson. Seattle's offense has scored an incredible 23 touchdowns through five games. The defense is off to a rough start, but it has cracked down a bit the past two games and still has game-changers such as Jamal Adams, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright and Shaquill Griffin.
Fowler: Buying. The reason the Seahawks are letting Russell Wilson truly cook is simple: This is the best receiving corps they've had in years. They can win with the running game on first and second down, or if that fails, they have no problem with Wilson winning on third downs. The pass-rush will continue to be an issue, but finally getting healthy around midseason will help. The secondary, when fully intact, is legit. The Packers are close but still have those curious lapses that give you pause.
Graziano: Buying. They're 5-0 and have played dreadful defense. There are worse bets than a Pete Carroll defense turning things around after a rough start. And the quarterback is an Avenger. Buying.
Kimes: Buying. The Bucs have a better defense (and it's not close), but the Seahawks' offense is an absolute buzzsaw right now, with the best quarterback in the NFC and a one-two punch at wide receiver that's a nightmare for opposing secondaries. Getting Jamal Adams back will help the pass defense, which needs to be only average to make this team a true Super Bowl contender.
Walder: Buying. Even though it means I'm going against FPI, which is just all in on that Tampa defense and has the Bucs behind only the Chiefs in its rankings. But to me, there's no unit more unstoppable in the NFC than Seattle's offense when they're playing aggressive and letting the best deep thrower in the game work. Plus, I have some faith that Pete Carroll will be able to keep the defense respectable going forward.
Yates: Buying. The Seahawks are not the most balanced team in the conference as they rank dead last in total defense, but Russell Wilson cares not about your imbalance concerns. Offensively the formula to slow down this group is to hope Wilson decides to retire from football in the days leading up to your game against him. He's cookin' this season.