Imagine playing defense in the NFL and trying to stop elite passers from either finding talented pass-catchers downfield or handing off to dynamic running backs on every play. Now imagine doing it while also needing to consider a quarterback's scrambling ability when he is given an opening. Scrambling is an underrated element of a signal-caller's arsenal, but who are the best of the best?
To be clear, we aren't just talking about the top running QBs. It doesn't just mean tucking and running, or picking up big chunks on designed runs. There's a difference here. Instead, scrambling is all about picking spots, finding openings and creating positive yardage when there is nothing else there -- or when it all breaks down. Successful scramblers need high-end movement traits in the pocket, awareness and vision. They need the speed and physicality to beat defenders when leaving the pocket and hitting the open field. And they need to be able to do it in the most critical moments of the game.
I dove into the tape to find the 10 quarterbacks who stand out from the rest in this area, with some help from advanced statistics and expected points added (EPA) -- the number of points the offense is expected to score on average at the start of the play versus the end of the play, based on factors such as down, distance, yard line and the clock. Again, this isn't just a listing of the best rushing quarterbacks but rather a look specifically at opportunistic scrambling. I also included three young quarterbacks who aren't quite there yet but have a good chance to join this list in due time. Let's begin my top 10 with the obvious No. 1 scrambler.
1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
EPA per scramble in 2019-20: 0.46 on 53 scramble rushes
Since the start of last season, Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 497 rushing yards on scrambles, and his 23 first-down conversions -- which include nine on third-down attempts -- rank third in the league.
On tape, Jackson is an effortless mover, a glider in the open field, with the high-end foot speed to simply erase second- and third-level pursuit angles. And with those natural traits as a runner, opposing defenses are limited in terms of what coverage schemes they can toss at him because of the threat of Jackson pulling the ball down. You want the best scrambling quarterback in the game right now based on tape, numbers and overall impact? It's Lamar.
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
EPA per scramble in 2019-20: 0.52 on 42 scramble rushes
Opposing defenses have to consistently account for Mahomes' arm talent and second-reaction ability when he leaves the pocket, which pushes coverage down the field. And that creates more space for Mahomes to use his movement traits on scramble attempts, especially in critical game situations. Over the past two seasons, Mahomes has 14 scramble attempts on third down with 12 conversions. He keeps the chains moving on "money downs," like we saw in the final minute of regulation during the Chiefs' Week 2 win against the Chargers, presented below via an NFL Next Gen Stats animation.
This is a third-and-20 situation, and Mahomes identifies the coverage. With the middle of the field open, he pulls it down and picks up the sticks.
Plus, Mahomes can find the end zone in these types of spots, too. His four touchdowns on scrambles are tied for second in the league since 2019. There's a reason Mahomes has registered a first down or touchdown rate of 47.6% per scramble, which ranks fourth in the NFL among quarterbacks with 10 or more scramble attempts.
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
EPA per scramble in 2019-20: 0.29 on 62 scramble rushes
Since the start of 2019, Wilson ranks second with 459 rushing yards on scrambles. And of his 23 first-down conversions on scrambles over the past two seasons, 10 came against the blitz, which is the most in the league during that stretch.
Yes, the number of designed run concepts have dropped for Wilson, but his veteran play style continues to put him in a position to pull the ball down and go. That's where we still see Wilson's athletic traits and ability to avoid contact in the open field. Here's a prime example from the Week 5 win against Minnesota, shown by NFL Next Gen Stats animation.
This is the start of the game-winning drive for Seattle: first down, with the ball backed up, in a two-minute drill. With some interior pressure, Wilson slides and diagnoses the coverage rotation. He finds the daylight and picks up a quick 17 yards. That's smart, situational football from a veteran. And it speaks to his ability to create conflict as one of the league's most dangerous quarterbacks with the ball in his hands as a runner.
4. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
EPA per scramble in 2019-20: 0.74 on 23 scramble rushes
Tannehill doesn't have as much rushing volume as most of the other quarterbacks on this list, but the tape and rate numbers tell us that he is one of the premier scrambling quarterbacks. Since the start of 2019, Tannehill's EPA on scrambles ranks No. 1 in the league among quarterbacks with at least 10 attempts, as does his first down/touchdown rate per scramble at 69.6%. Tannehill is also a threat to score when the Titans have the ball in the low red zone, as his four touchdown runs on scrambles is tied with Mahomes at No. 2.
Given the Tennessee offensive structure -- a run-heavy system that builds out to the play-action pass game -- I expect Tannehill's rush volume to stay consistent. But as we saw this past week in the win over Buffalo, Tannehill can pick up the sticks or find the end zone when there's an opportunity. And I would like to see him scramble more given his ability in the open field as a runner.
5. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
EPA per scramble in 2019-20: 0.25 on 46 scramble rushes
After watching the tape of Murray's scramble rushes, I expected the metrics to be a little higher, in both EPA and rate of first downs/touchdowns per scramble (37%). Murray's 187 rushing yards on scramble attempts this season leads the NFL, however, as do his two touchdown runs. Check this one out from the Week 1 win over the 49ers.
What. A. Play.#RedSea x @K1
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) September 13, 2020
📺 #AZvsSF on FOX pic.twitter.com/S2ETMRFGpF
That's where we see Murray's instant acceleration and lateral agility to skate past defenders. While I would like to see Murray hang in the pocket more to drive the ball on second- and third-level throws, his high-level traits as a runner make him one of the league's most dangerous offensive weapons in space. And remember, he is still developing at the position.
6. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
EPA per scramble in 2019-20: 0.29 on 64 scramble rushes
Watson ranks second in the league with 64 rush attempts off scrambles over the past two seasons. That has led to Watson recording 400 rushing yards and four touchdowns on those plays.
But the key statistic for me is Watson's ability to pick up first downs with his legs. Yes, given the rush volume here, his first down/touchdown rate per scramble sits a little lower at 39.1%. But he has converted a league-leading 25 first-down runs off scrambles over the past two seasons. And while I do believe Watson can play more within the structure of the Texans' offense, his fluid running style and body control allow the Houston quarterback to convert in big spots.
7. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins
EPA per scramble in 2019-20: 0.37 on 51 scramble rushes
Fitzpatrick is fearless as a runner. You can see that in his play style, when he drops his pads in the open field against linebackers and defensive backs. But we can't discount his decision-making on when to run -- or the production that comes with it.
Since 2019, Fitzpatrick leads all NFL quarterbacks with five rushing touchdowns on scrambles. He becomes a viable runner in the low red zone. Plus, on the 12 scramble attempts versus blitzes, Fitz has converted eight first downs, contributing to a first down/touchdown rate per scramble of 45.1%. That's a good number for a veteran quarterback who will sell out to move the sticks or put the ball in the end zone.
8. Cam Newton, New England Patriots
EPA per scramble in 2019-20: 0.55 on 4 scramble rushes
In just three games this season, Newton has already posted 31 carries -- with four touchdowns -- on designed quarterback run concepts. That's the zone-read scheme, QB power and more. And we are seeing how coordinator Josh McDaniels is building the offense around Newton's upper-tier traits as a runner.
Newton has only four scrambles this season, but the production is there in that small sample. Those four scrambles have turned into 58 yards. And while he might not scramble at a high rate this season, given the heavily defined pass game structure in New England, the veteran quarterback is always a threat to get outside of the pocket.
9. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
EPA per scramble in 2019-20: 0.40 on 30 scramble rushes
Rodgers is the most interesting study of the group. We know about his second-reaction ability and movement skills as a runner outside of the pocket. Those have always been key parts of his game. But after rushing for 203 yards on 26 scramble attempts in 2019 -- which included nine first-down conversions -- Rodgers is playing much more within the offensive structure of Matt LaFleur's system this year. The result? Rodgers has only four rushing attempts on scrambles in 2020.
Simply put, Rodgers is throwing more on time and within rhythm, in an offense that features heavy play-action concepts. But regardless, he's making my top 10 here because, like Wilson, Rodgers can still pick his spots in big game moments. He still shows a natural feel and awareness based on down and distance or game situation.
10. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
EPA per scramble in 2019-20: 0.26 on 50 scramble rushes
Allen already has 23 rushes this season on designed QB runs, which cater to his size and physical traits at the position. The surprising number here, however, is the drop in scramble attempts this season. A year after rushing for 313 yards and three scores on scrambles, Allen has only six attempts this season through five games. He is hanging in the pocket much longer, passing up on scramble opportunities, and using his second-reaction ability as a thrower to extend plays.
While we know Allen has the high-level movement ability to threaten defenses with his legs, his play style has changed at the start of the 2020 season.
THE NEXT WAVE
Here are three quarterbacks who have the potential movement traits to extend plays and pick up first downs in big game moments based on the tape I've watched. They are the next in line to create stress for opposing defenses outside of the pocket as runners.
Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars
I thought about putting Minshew up top, given his 440 rushing yards on scrambles since the start of 2019, which ranks third behind Jackson and Wilson. And he certainly shows an ability to find creases or opportunities to run. With a play style that reminds me of Fitzpatrick, Minshew just needs a larger sample size to join the established vets.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow has the movement traits to consistently covert in third-and-medium situations. See it and go. We know that from watching his LSU tape. And Burrow has shown that ability as a pro, picking up 61 rushing yards on 13 scramble attempts already this season while playing behind a subpar offensive line in Cincinnati.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert has only eight scramble attempts this season for 36 yards, but the rookie has converted five first downs on those eight rushes. Herbert has the 6-foot-6 size and high-end movement traits to create impact plays off scrambles, but he must also learn how to protect himself in the open field.