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          How Aaron Rodgers has turned back the clock: Five keys to the Packers QB's huge start to the 2020 season

          • Matt BowenOct 5, 2020, 07:15 AM ET
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              Matt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.
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          Aaron Rodgers' talent transcends scheme. The Green Bay Packers quarterback can be a star in any system. But after a bumpy 2019 in first-year head coach Matt LaFleur's rhythm- and timing-based offense, Rodgers is off to a great start this season.

          Through Week 3, Rodgers' 90.3 Total QBR ranks second in the NFL -- just behind Patrick Mahomes -- and he has thrown nine touchdown passes without an interception. Rodgers put up a career-low 52.5 QBR last season, which ranked 20th in the NFL. After the Packers picked quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft, questions were raised about the 36-year-old Rodgers' future in Green Bay. He has silenced doubters so far, however, leading the NFL's most prolific offense.

          As the Packers prepare for a Monday night matchup with the Atlanta Falcons, I went back to the game tape to find the areas in which Rodgers looks much improved from 2019. Here are five reasons why Rodgers has been more efficient and should still be considered one of the NFL's best quarterbacks:

          Playing within the structure of LaFleur's system

          Rodgers doesn't need strict play design to produce, given his high-level throwing and movement traits. We saw situations of that in Year 1 under LaFleur, which led to Rodgers going outside of structure -- but he left some open throws on the field. In his second season with the Packers' coach, however, Rodgers is getting the ball out with speed and in rhythm to carve up defenses.

          Last season, Rodgers averaged a release time of 2.88 seconds. That number has dropped in 2020 to 2.77 seconds. That might not seem like a big difference, but it is. He's hitting the schemed-up targets and taking the underneath throws based on route design in LaFleur's offense. Plus, Rodgers is making the majority of those throws from the pocket.

          He averaged 4.8 throws per game off scramble attempts in 2019. This season? A more modest 3.7 per game. The number of times Rodgers pulls the football down to run is declining, too, as he has averaged just one rushing attempt off scramble situations this season, compared to 1.7 per game in 2019.

          Yes, we are looking at a small sample size after only three weeks of the new season, but the numbers and the tape match up here. Rodgers is much more dialed in as a rhythm thrower within the structure of LaFleur's route tree.

          Early-down play-action

          One of the biggest jumps we've seen from Rodgers is his efficiency in the play-action game. In 2019, he recorded a QBR of 51.6 on play-action throws, with just three touchdowns for the season. He has already thrown four touchdowns in 2020 off play-action, and his QBR on those throws has spiked to 93.4, which ranks fifth.

          Why are we seeing such a rapid boost in production and efficiency? It starts with aggressive, early-down play-action calls from LaFleur. The Packers are averaging 7.0 play-action attempts on first down, which is a noticeable climb from the 4.6 per game in 2019. This is where LaFleur can scheme up high-percentage throws, particularly with the threat of running back Aaron Jones coming downhill. That includes the schemed-up shot plays, like we saw in Week 3's victory against the Saints.

          This is a first-down situation -- with the ball in the "shot zone" -- and Green Bay aligned in a reduced formation. There's misdirection here with jet, plus the downhill action to Jones. Those false run indicators create an advantage against overaggressive defenses. Here, it allowed the Packers to grab the eyes in the secondary, with Rodgers moving off the boot concept to target wide receiver Allen Lazard on the deep ball. And, really, Rodgers makes this high-level throw look almost effortless.

          Over the first three weeks of the season, Rodgers has completed 73.5% of his play-action throws, up from 65.2% last season, in a system that that will create both open windows and vertical opportunities, especially in early-down and distance situations. And Rodgers is capitalizing on the aggressive playcalling here.

          More pre-snap movement

          Along with giving Rodgers pre-snap indicators of zone or man coverage, using motion and shifts allows the Packers to scheme opposing defenses while also creating conflict for second- and third-level defenders.

          In 2019, Green Bay used motion at or before the snap on 37.5% of offensive plays, which ranked No. 16 in the NFL. This season, that number is up to 51.7%, the ninth-most in the league. We see it with the jet sweep action, the motion to bunch to attack man coverage or when Jones shifts outside of the backfield as a viable receiving target on schemed matchups.

          With that increase in movement, Green Bay is telling defenses they simply can't line up and play stagnant football. The communication will have to speed up in the secondary and the eye discipline had better be locked in, or this Packers offense is going to tax the defense mentally while giving Rodgers the ability to decipher both coverage and key matchups before the ball is even snapped.

          On-point ball location

          If you run through the tape on Rodgers' 10-plus-yard throws, one of the first things you notice is the ball location when he is targeting defensive leverage or attacking tight windows. Here's an example from an NFL Next Gen Stats animation that highlights Rodgers' ability to put the ball on the front shoulder of wide receiver Davante Adams.

          Adams is running an in-breaking route against good coverage, with cornerback Cameron Dantzler funneling the route inside. And this goes back to what we have already discussed with Rodgers. Off play-action, Rodgers throws on rhythm to deliver a ball with velocity and to Adams' upfield shoulder. The location wins.

          Based on NFL Next Gen Stats metrics, Rodgers' completion percentage on "tight window throws" -- which accounts for less than one yard of separation between target and defender at pass arrival -- has climbed from 27.3% in 2019 to 54.5% in 2020. This season's number ranks third in the NFL behind Josh Allen and Ben Roethlisberger.

          There is context here, too. Rodgers isn't throwing up 50-50 balls or making his receivers work to bail him out of trouble. Rodgers doesn't have that luxury, lacking the numerous skill position offensive playmakers (outside of Adams and Jones) that other top quarterbacks have at their disposal. Instead, when he is in a position to target a tight window versus either man or zone coverage, he is making more accurate throws.

          The second-reaction ability

          Let's not forget about Rodgers' elite second-reaction ability, because like Mahomes and Russell Wilson, it separates him from the majority of the quarterbacks in the league.

          Here's an example from the Packers' Week 1 win over the Vikings. Watch as Rodgers steps up into the pocket and slides to stay parallel to the line of scrimmage. That gives Adams an opportunity to find open turf, and Rodgers delivers an absolute laser for the score.

          Yes, Rodgers is throwing with more rhythm from the pocket, and LaFleur is scheming up opponents in the pass game. But when Rodgers is forced to go off script, he is still one of the most dangerous players in the NFL to defend.