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Experts predict Week 4 NFL upset picks, fantasy football sleepers and flops, plus best rookie

The Monday night game didn't turn out to be the epic many figured it would be, but it still saw Patrick Mahomes account for five touchdowns.

He wasn't the only quarterback to do that in Week 3 of the 2020 NFL season, either. Russell Wilson tossed touchdowns 10-14 on the season, the most TD passes through three games in NFL history.

Seven teams moved to 3-0, while 1-2 is good enough to be tied atop the NFC East.

Our panel of experts is here to push the panic button on one would-be NFC contender and help you with Week 4's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers.

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What's your top upset pick for Week 4?

Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Jaguars (+3.0) over Bengals. With more volume for rookie running back James Robinson, plus quarterback Gardner Minshew going up against a subpar Bengals secondary, the Jags can get the road win.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Chargers (+7) over Buccaneers. The Chargers are still having problems closing out games but can play with anyone. Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert is legit. Joey Bosa and the pass rush will have something for Tom Brady.

Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Titans (+1.5) over Steelers. Two 3-0 teams are facing off, and the home team is the underdog. Titans tailback Derrick Henry might struggle to hit his usual productivity against the Steelers' stout run defense, but Tennessee will find ways to move the ball through the air.

Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Jaguars (+3.0) over Bengals. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has flashed his ability at times in his young NFL career, but I'm not fully buying his immediate ascendancy just yet. Minshew has outperformed Burrow in QBR and in NFL Next Gen Stats' completion percentage over expectation thus far this season.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Bears (+2.5) over Colts. Bill Parcells famously proclaimed "you are what your record says you are," so despite the fact Chicago has won each of its games by exactly four points, the Bears still deserve some respect. Nick Foles probably will start, and the quarterback steered the offense efficiently during a Week 3 relief outing.


0-3 Vikings at 0-3 Texans in Week 4: Which team are you more worried about and why?

Bowen: Vikings. I question the Vikings from a game plan and execution standpoint -- on both sides of the ball -- after three weeks of the season. And without Danielle Hunter on the field, the lack of a pass rush has exposed some real concerns in a young Minnesota secondary.

Fowler: Texans. Here's to betting on coach Mike Zimmer to get the Vikings' defense organized, and the offense showed life in a loss to the Titans. That Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is still facing constant pressure is alarming. The offensive line obviously plays a role, but league evaluators say Watson's biggest longstanding issue has been pocket presence, and maybe he has more work to do there.

Seifert: Vikings. The single player on any team who can most power a turnaround is the quarterback. Most of us would choose Watson over Kirk Cousins to elevate his team. Both teams have faced difficult schedules -- their opponents have combined for two losses all season -- but the Vikings don't have the same ability to overcome their deficiencies.

Walder: Vikings, but it's close. Houston desperately needs better blocking for Watson, but I'm wondering if part of the issue has been the stiff competition over the first couple of weeks: The Steelers and Ravens are difficult foes for any offensive line. There's at least a chance we look back in a few weeks and chalk up the Texans' 0-3 record just to the quality of their opponents.

Yates: Both. But if forced to pick one, I'll go with Minnesota because Houston faced the toughest three-game stretch any team will face in the NFL at any point this season. Losing to the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers is not desirable, but it's also understandable. The Vikings will find a way.


On a scale of 1-10, how panicked should Eagles fans be about their winless start?

Bowen: 8. Carson Wentz has looked tentative as a thrower to start the season, and his ball location has been sporadic. The injuries to the pass-catchers don't help, either. Plus, with a defense that isn't making opposing quarterbacks work from a scheme perspective, the Eagles have the ceiling of an eight-win team -- with San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Baltimore up next.

Fowler: 7. Leaving the light on for Wentz to rediscover his enormous talent and figure this out. And what coach Doug Pederson alluded to this week is spot-on -- a bad team can win the bad NFC East. But injuries are piling up, offensive line play is uneven, and the defense isn't creating turnovers. Recipe for a dud season.

Seifert: 10. You can't panic a little bit. You're either all-in or you're all-out. So after watching the Eagles fall under the weight of offensive line injuries and questionable in-game coaching -- all while Wentz reacted with inexcusable terror -- I'm thinking the Eagles are cooked.

Walder: 9. In Weeks 2 and 3, Wentz was actually pressured at the fifth-lowest rate in the league. Yet he recorded the 28th QBR in the league in that two-game span. I know the receiving corps is in shambles again, but Wentz's play is a problem.

Yates: 9. Believe it or not, the Eagles actually gained ground in the NFC East on Sunday with their tie, but my panic is not in regard to finding a way to win the division. It's all about Philly's chances of making a deep playoff push in the NFC, which is the expectation for this squad. And with a depleted offensive line and wide receiver group plus Wentz's early struggles, this team doesn't have the look of a legit contender right now. I'm worried.


Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 4.

Bowen: Preston Williams, WR, Dolphins. Given the aggressive throwing style of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, Williams could have WR value this weekend versus a Seahawks defense that is surrendering a league-worst 430.7 pass yards per game.

Fowler: Myles Gaskin, RB, Dolphins. He sure looked like a central part of the game plan last week against Jacksonville. Jordan Howard is stealing his goal-line touchdowns, which means Gaskin will go ahead and break off a 20-yard score for good measure. Seattle is stout against the run but is due a lapse after emotionally charged victories vs. Dallas and New England and injuries galore.

Seifert: James Robinson, RB, Jaguars. Opponents are having their way with the Bengals' rushing defense, which has given up the second-most yards on the ground per game (181.7) this season. Assuming the Jaguars don't fall behind early, a problem in their games this season, Robinson will be in line for a big day.

Walder: Carlos Hyde, RB, Seahawks. Russ Will Cook, but it's reasonable to expect the chef to hang up his apron earlier in this one after securing a big lead over the Dolphins. That will let Pete Carroll indulge his run-game approach by giving a heavy workload to Hyde, given Chris Carson's injury.

Yates: Greg Ward, WR, Eagles. Someone has to catch passes, right? With DeSean Jackson leaving Week 3 early, a razor-thin Eagles wide receiver group got ... thinner. Ward was a standout performer down the stretch in 2019 for Philly and will need to be again in Week 4, especially if Alshon Jeffery is not ready for his season debut. Coach Doug Pederson said on Monday that Jackson has a chance to play in Week 4.


Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?

Bowen: Darius Slayton, WR, Giants. The Rams have used a more zone-heavy approach this season, but they muddy the coverage looks post-snap. They will make Giants quarterback Daniel Jones work. And when L.A. does play man coverage, I expect Slayton to draw the matchup of cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

Fowler: Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington. Baltimore's defense needs to regain its edge after the poor performance against the Chiefs. McLaurin will get the best from Ravens cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, who won't let him go off and will force Dwayne Haskins to spread the ball.

Seifert: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans. Having already absorbed the NFL's heaviest workload this season, with 87 touches in three games, Henry will face the NFL's top rushing defense in Week 4. The Steelers have limited opponents to 54 rushing yards per game.

Walder: Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos. The Jets are a mess, but their run defense actually is pretty solid: They rank seventh in run stop win rate this season. And with Brett Rypien at quarterback on the road in a short week, the scoring opportunities probably will be in short supply.

Yates: Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers. Among the rules I follow in life is to never bet against Tom Brady, so allow me to clarify: The number of quarterbacks with favorable matchups is high this week, so Brady gets pushed down my rankings as a result. Plus, while the Chargers are without Derwin James and Melvin Ingram, their defense has still proved to be one that can give any offense fits (it made life tough on Patrick Mahomes for three full quarters).


Which rookie has impressed you most so far this season?

Bowen: Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals. The rookie is playing fast and managing the pocket behind a subpar offensive line. The processing ability jumps. Plus, he is throwing the ball decisively with location. And you can see the toughness he brings to the field. In short, Burrow has given the Bengals a chance to compete every week.

Fowler: L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Chiefs. Kansas City's cornerback depth was an issue entering the season, but Sneed has helped quell concerns in a hurry with two interceptions and three pass deflections. He's versatile, physical, fast and big. Lots of good options here, but Sneed gets the nod as a pleasant midround surprise. [Editor's note: Sneed broke his collarbone in the Monday night game, coach Andy Reid announced Wednesday, and a timeline for his return has yet to be determined.]

Seifert: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings. The primary reason that Jefferson's breakout game came in Week 3 is that he -- and the rest of the Vikings' offense -- was hardly on the field in Weeks 1 and 2. He played nearly as many snaps against the Titans (51) as he did against the Packers (36) and Colts (29). He entered the season ready to be a big-time playmaker.

Walder: Mekhi Becton, OT, Jets. While the Jets' season is already in shambles, their first-round pick is off to a great start: He has cracked the top 10 in pass block win rate among tackles, sitting in between Andrew Whitworth and Terron Armstead. On Sam Darnold's first-quarter touchdown to Braxton Berrios on Sunday, Becton dominated Justin Houston, sustaining his block against the veteran pass-rusher for 5.5 seconds.

Yates: Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Buccaneers. I was tempted to pick Becton, but a Week 3 injury cut his afternoon short. I'll instead pick the Bucs' second-round safety, who looks like a heat-seeking missile in the secondary. What a natural playmaker.