<
        >

          Bruce Arians has adapted his Bucs offense to fit Tom Brady -- but maybe not how you think

          • Seth WalderSep 25, 2020, 07:05 AM ET
            Close
              Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.

          Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians loves for his quarterbacks to throw the ball down the field. It's a staple of his vertical scheme. And through two games of the 2020 season, we can already see that he has altered his offense to fit Tom Brady.

          Among the changes we've seen? Virtually eliminating the deep out route, which was a staple for Jameis Winston in 2019.

          When Brady signed with Tampa Bay in the offseason, there were some questions over the fit in Arians' scheme. When Arians coached the Cardinals from 2013-17, for example, his quarterbacks ranked second in highest air yards per attempt (9.8). Brady, for all his talents, is not known as a deep-ball thrower -- especially at age 43.

          So let's take a closer look at what we saw in 2019 vs. what we've seen this season.

          Last season, with Winston at quarterback, the Bucs' average pass attempt was more than 10 yards downfield, which was the deepest in the league. Three seconds after the snap, all Tampa route runners -- regardless of whether they were targeted -- were, on average, 8.5 yards downfield, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

          Both of those numbers have dropped substantially in 2020. The Bucs' average air yards is just over 7 now (20th in the league) and receivers are only 7 yards downfield 3 seconds into a play (24th). That second part is particularly important. In order to see how Arians is adapting to Brady, we ought to consider what all route runners are doing, not just the pass-catchers to whom Brady is throwing.

          Upon seeing those numbers, my assumption was that Arians was cutting out vertical routes -- like posts, corners and goes -- which his receivers ran at the highest rate in the league last season. But that actually wasn't the case. Tampa is running slightly more vertical routes. There are big changes elsewhere, however.

          In 2019, 5% of all of Tampa Bay's routes were deep outs, according to ESPN route classification based on Next Gen Stats player tracking data, the highest rate for any team. This season, that number has dipped all the way below 1%, the second-lowest rate in the league.

          Deep outs aren't the only route group to drop off in usage: the Bucs have lowered their rate of hook routes (comebacks and curls) from 8% to 5% and dig routes from 5% down to 3%. Those might not sound like big differences, but in total that's a sizable shift.

          Here's what a couple of those changes actually look like for Mike Evans. In 2019 -- in the graphic on the left -- Evans ran deep outs 5% of the time and digs 8% of the time. The graphic on the right shows those same routes in 2020. Of course, Evans played 13 games in 2019 and only two in 2020, but the point is clear (though he has run hook routes at a high rate in 2020).

          So what gives with the reduction of these routes but not verticals? I asked my ESPN colleagues -- analysts Dan Orlovsky and Matt Bowen -- to help me make sense of the results.

          With verticals, they both explained, a quarterback has the freedom to put air under the ball. But the quarterback has to drive a deep out -- and the difference in arm strength between Winston and Brady is a factor. The consequences of a missed deep out also are worse, as the pass is more likely to be intercepted -- and more likely to be a pick-six.

          While not a deep out, we've already seen evidence of that risk with Brady. In Tampa's opening-week loss to the Saints, he threw a speed out to Evans from the far hash and it was jumped by Janoris Jenkins and returned for a touchdown. And again, that was a short out.

          "I don't expect Tampa to throw a deep out at all the rest of the year." Orlovsky said, noting that Brady didn't throw a lot of them in New England either (more on that in a second). "The risk-reward isn't worth it."

          So where have all of those missing deep out, dig and hook routes been redistributed to this season? Mostly short outside routes (like flats or speed outs) and pivot routes (like hitches and whips), plus the aforementioned slightly higher rate of vertical routes.

          That rebalancing of routes? It actually brings Tampa Bay's route rates remarkably in line with the 2019 Patriots. The Bucs are running deep outs, digs, short outside routes and pivots all at rates that are within 1 percentage point of the rate the Patriots ran each of them last season.

          There are differences -- the Patriots ran crossing routes about 6 percentage points more often than the 2020 Bucs, and the 2020 Bucs run verticals about 6 percentage points more often than the last year's Patriots. But among the routes whose usages have significantly changed for Arians from last season to this, most have been brought into line with the offense Brady ran a season ago. Ultimately, the overall distribution of routes run by this Bucs team looks like something of a compromise between what the 2019 Bucs and 2019 Patriots ran.

          We're just two games into the season, and offenses can evolve. The early signs are clear, however: Arians is adapting his offense to his new quarterback.