The NFL offseason is all but over, with free agency and the draft behind us, although several good players remain on the open market. Next up on the NFL calendar? A period of virtual workouts and meetings, with a few teams reopening their facilities to players who are rehabilitating injuries.
Our panel of NFL experts takes a look at the past few months and looks ahead to the 2020 season, answering questions to recap the offseason action.
The topics our panel has hit so far (click the links to see the answers):
Who's your pick to be 2020 MVP?
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals. Murray was my pick in February, and I'm sticking with it, especially considering I made it before Arizona traded for DeAndre Hopkins. It still might seem like a massive stretch, but Patrick Mahomes came out of nowhere to win it in his second NFL season in 2018 and Lamar Jackson did the same in 2019. Murray is a strong bet for a big leap in his sophomore campaign.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions. Went bold with this pick a few months ago and can't back down now. Stafford was pacing for nearly 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns before his back injury sidelined him last season. His offense is loaded with weapons, the NFC North is wide open and Stafford will capitalize.
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs. Brave, I know! But there's no reason to think the Chiefs' juggernaut offense will decline this coming season, especially with Mahomes at full health.
Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: Mahomes. He's the best player in the league. He will be the MVP favorite in the preseason for years to come.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys. From 2016 to 2018, the Packers dropped back to pass at a higher rate on first down and overall than any other team in the league. With Mike McCarthy's pass-heavy approach now in Dallas and with a plethora of weapons to throw to, Prescott could be staring at a career year.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Mahomes. The Chiefs' offense is loaded.
Who's your dark horse pick to win MVP?
Clay: Drew Lock, QB, Denver Broncos. Here's the thing: The Broncos look good on paper. Vic Fangio's defense is loaded, especially after the additions of Jurrell Casey and A.J. Bouye. Offensively, the line is solid and the weapons, while young, are impressive. That leaves 2019 second-round pick Lock as the wild card. If he proves to be legit, the Broncos are going to surprise in a big way.
Fowler: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks. Somehow Wilson can't crack the MVP discussion. This year will be different. Wilson's connection with DK Metcalf is set to explode, and a 1-seed in the NFC isn't out of the question for the Seahawks.
Kimes: Philip Rivers, QB, Indianapolis Colts. Sure, he struggled quite a bit last season ... but I'm in the camp that believes his issues were largely the product of circumstances (poor protection, game situation). Rivers actually finished eighth overall in the NFL Next Gen Stats' completion percentage above expectation rankings, and now he gets to play behind a significantly better line with terrific coaches and solid weapons.
Schatz: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions. Check out Stafford's stats from before he was injured last season: sixth in Total QBR and fourth in Football Outsiders DVOA among quarterbacks with at least 200 passes in 2019. When you also consider the amount of new defensive talent they've brought aboard, the Lions are a dark horse contender in the NFC North, which in turn makes Stafford a dark horse MVP candidate.
Walder: Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns. Look at Cleveland's roster. It's loaded! Mayfield is throwing to Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper and has a reinforced offensive line that now includes Jack Conklin in front of him. If the season breaks right for Mayfield under new coach Kevin Stefanski, there's a chance it can break right into an MVP award.
Yates: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints. And before you brush off my assertion that he's a dark horse, remember that Drew Brees has never won MVP. He's due for yet another typically robust stat line complemented by plenty of wins. He's due for one.
Which team declined the most this offseason?
Clay: New England Patriots. The loss of and failure to replace Tom Brady is enough to qualify New England here, but keep in mind that Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Duron Harmon and Danny Shelton (all played 500-plus snaps in 2019) also departed. Perhaps they found a gem in Jarrett Stidham, but history tells us that's a long shot.
Fowler: Houston Texans. Losing top-shelf receiver DeAndre Hopkins instantly makes the offense worse, and Houston is replacing him with random parts such as Randall Cobb (on a bloated deal) and Brandin Cooks (who has a concussion history and cost the Texans a second-round pick to acquire). Houston let 1,000-yard rusher Carlos Hyde walk in favor of David Johnson, who was benched in Arizona.
Kimes: Patriots. I'm not terribly worried about the defense, despite their losses up front (file my confidence under "Trust in Belichick"), but losing Brady and replacing him with an unknown in Stidham is a big question mark. I also worry that the retirement of offensive line guru Dante Scarnecchia could have an unexpected impact up front.
Bill Belichick is confident Jarrett Stidham will be able to lead the Patriots' offense.
Schatz: Patriots. It's not just because of the loss of Brady. Based on approximate value (from Pro Football Reference) over replacement, the Patriots also have the greatest offseason net loss of defensive talent of any team since 2003.
Walder: Patriots. Going from Brady to Stidham has to be a huge blow. But also, the instability of defense -- theirs was incredible last season -- from year to year means that side of the ball will likely regress.
Yates: Jacksonville Jaguars. It was by design, but it's Jacksonville. It traded away Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye in moves that were motivated by draft capital and financial relief and flexibility. The Jaguars probably will endure a long season, but I give general manager Dave Caldwell credit for establishing a plan, and if it results in landing a top-flight prospect at quarterback in the 2021 class, that will prove worth it in the long run.
Which team improved the most this offseason?
Clay: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski were the big-name additions, but I'm also anticipating a big leap from a young, high-pedigree defense. Vita Vea, Devin White, Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, M.J. Stewart, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Edwards were all drafted on Day 1 or 2 of the past three drafts and positioned for sizable 2020 roles. This defense could make a huge leap, especially after its strong finish to last season.
Fowler: Philadelphia Eagles. Let's bypass Tompa Bay on the GPS and head to Philly, where the additions of Javon Hargrave and Darius Slay bolster the Eagles' defensive attack. They spent the better part of the past year combing the trade market for corner help, and holding out paid off: Getting Slay in exchange for third- and fifth-round picks is great value. Hargrave is a versatile interior lineman with pass-rush explosion. Slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman and safety Will Parks bring good depth. And the draft brought receiver help with do-it-all playmaker Jalen Reagor.
Kimes: Buccaneers. Brady doesn't have to do a whole lot to make life easier for the defense -- he just needs to turn the ball over less. The Bucs managed to bring back most of their defensive talent up front, while adding day one contributors like Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr. in the draft.
Schatz: Arizona Cardinals. It's easy to say Tampa Bay, but I'm going to swerve and take Arizona. DeAndre Hopkins is obviously a big addition, but the Cardinals also added a good amount of defensive talent, including Jordan Phillips, Devon Kennard and first-round pick Isaiah Simmons.
Walder: Buccaneers. I'm with Mike: This defense has young talent and was already good (seventh in defensive efficiency last year), so there's the possibility of natural growth there. That the Bucs addressed their weaker side of the ball with Brady and Gronkowski is quite the quick fix.
Yates: Cardinals. High marks for general manager Steve Keim, whose trade for Hopkins ranks among the highest-impact moves of the offseason, while adding Simmons at pick No. 8 was tremendous value. Supplement those moves with need-filling free-agent additions and the expected improvement of Kyler Murray, and this team feels like one primed to make a leap.
Which offseason addition will make the biggest impact in 2020?
Clay: Philip Rivers, QB, Indianapolis Colts. Tom Brady is the obvious choice, but the Colts' signing of Rivers -- as well as the trade for DeForest Buckner -- vaults them into contender status. Interceptions were a problem last season, but Rivers was still effective and will have the benefit of an elite offensive line in Indianapolis.
Fowler: Rivers. He and Frank Reich collaborated for 13,000-plus yards and 92 touchdowns in San Diego from 2013 to 2015. Now, they reunite in Indy with a strong roster around them. Rivers is eager to rebound from a subpar 2019 with the Chargers. On a one-year deal, expect fireworks from the 38-year-old.
Kimes: Rivers. The Colts finished with a bottom-10 passing offense last season, per Football Outsiders' DVOA; if Rivers can bounce back (I think he can), then they'll get a bigger bump than the Bucs will by going from Winston to Brady.
Schatz: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Simply because of one category: The difference between Brady and Jameis Winston when it comes to turnovers is gigantic.
Walder: Brady. Even accounting for his decline last season, he elevates the Bucs to a potential Super Bowl contender. That wasn't the case without him.
Yates: Brady. It's hard to make a case for someone else, right? Quarterbacks impact their team more than any other position, and acquiring Brady led to a chain reaction of other moves executed by Tampa Bay to bolster their roster for the upcoming season.
What was the most underrated move of the offseason?
Clay: The Cincinnati Bengals' defensive overhaul. It has been a while since the heart of free agency, but I'm still hearing and seeing some variation of "the Bengals' defense is bad!" Yes, the unit struggled in 2019, but the offseason additions of D.J. Reader, Josh Bynes, Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander and Vonn Bell solidify a defense that also includes Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap, Sam Hubbard, William Jackson and Jessie Bates.
Fowler: The Green Bay Packers actually did get some receiver help in signing Devin Funchess, whose broken collarbone spoiled his season in Indianapolis. Funchess should be healthy now, and if he can regain his form from 2017, when he posted 840 yards and eight touchdowns as a primary option for Cam Newton in Carolina, his prove-it deal of $2.5 million in Green Bay will be a worthwhile investment.
Kimes: The Baltimore Ravens acquiring Calais Campbell from the Jaguars for a fifth-round pick. The Ravens' defense was excellent last season, but it struggled at times to stop the run, as we saw in the playoffs. Enter Campbell, one of the best run-stuffing linemen in football. This was a huge acquisition at little cost.
Schatz: The league getting rid of replay review for pass interference. It was frustrating, time-consuming and inconsistent, and I guarantee there will be a play in next year's postseason where you will swear at your television and wish it was still in the rulebook.
Walder: The Los Angeles Chargers' acquisitions of tackle Bryan Bulaga and guard Trai Turner were important. Over the past three seasons, Philip Rivers has played behind the 28th-ranked unit in pass block win rate, and general manager Tom Telesco would be wise to not have Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert do the same. But the job isn't done: The Chargers still need a left tackle. Signing, say, Kelvin Beachum to fill that hole would put them in a better position for success.
Yates: The Philadelphia Eagles added two players to their secondary -- slot cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman and safety Will Parks -- for less than $3 million combined for this year. Even though neither projects to start, the Eagles know the importance of depth in the secondary after theirs was tested so severely last season, and each player adds pedigree to this position group.