The 2020 NFL draft's wide receiver class has been widely hailed as perhaps the best class in over a decade.
However, aside from the sheer number of first-round prospects, there may not be anything particularly special about this year's wide receivers. Playmaker score, which is Football Outsiders' statistical system for projecting college wide receivers to the next level, has two prospects it really likes but believes the rest of the first-round prospects available are average when compared to first-round wide receivers from past drafts.
Note: Players are listed in order of their projected average receiving yardage.
Below, we take a look at some of playmaker's top prospects in this year's draft, along with some similar prospects from previous drafts. Our similar historical prospects are based on former players who were similar in their playmaker statistics, so you might see us compare two physically dissimilar players because they were similar statistically. Read more on our methodology here.
Oklahoma wideout CeeDee Lamb can play both slot and outside and is considered one of the most evasive offensive players in the 2020 NFL draft.
1. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma Sooners
Projected yards/season, first five years: 691
Scouts Inc.: No. 7 overall
Similar historical prospects: Odell Beckham Jr., Amari Cooper
For the second consecutive year, an Oklahoma Sooner holds the playmaker projection top spot (Marquise Brown held the distinction last year). Lamb recorded 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior in 2019. Moreover, contrary to Oklahoma's reputation from past years as a "pass-happy" team, the Sooners attempted only 381 passes last season. As a result, Lamb has the best touchdowns per team attempt and yards per team attempt of any underclassman wide receiver in this class. In short, Lamb, like many successful NFL wide receivers before him, was the focal point of his college's passing offense.
Another positive sign for Lamb is that his coaches involved him in the running game as well. Lamb had nine rushes in his career -- all last season. That may not seem like many, but any carries at all are a good indicator of whether the wide receiver's coaches thought the player was a special talent who should have the ball in his hands.
Although not necessarily a knock on Lamb, it's worth noting that no other Oklahoma wide receiver prospect was invited to the combine this year, so Lamb does not get any adjustment for playing alongside talented teammates. It's true that Lamb had to fight Brown for pass attempts as a sophomore, but playmaker uses only the receiving numbers from the wide receiver prospect's best season. For Lamb, that was his junior year, after Brown was long gone and catching passes for the Baltimore Ravens.
However, like all draft prospects, Lamb is not a lock to succeed. Lamb had excellent production, but it was not quite to the superhuman level that the very best historical prospects -- such as Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald -- reached in college. Still, the numbers think Lamb is well worth his high projected draft position.
2. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected yards/season, first five years: 668
Scouts Inc.: No. 3 overall
Similar historical prospects: Sammy Watkins, Reggie Wayne
Jeudy was a reasonably productive wide receiver in college, but his numbers are much more impressive in the context of the absurd amount of receiving talent on the Crimson Tide. In 2020, Jeudy had to compete for passes with Henry Ruggs III, who is also projected as a first-round pick. Amazingly, neither Jeudy nor Ruggs was the receiving yards leader on his own team. DeVonta Smith outgained both of them but declined to enter the 2020 NFL draft and is returning to Alabama for his senior season. The 2019 Alabama Crimson Tide might have had the most receiving talent since the 2000 Miami Hurricanes, which sent Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss and (one year later) tight end Jeremy Shockey to the first round (future star Andre Johnson was on the bench).
Playmaker does not give Jeudy credit for playing with Smith, but it gives him a sizable boost for playing with Ruggs. You could argue that it should give Jeudy credit for playing with Smith as well, but historically no adjustment is necessary for players who have to compete with a potential future draftee for passes. Overall, playmaker projects Jeudy to be slightly more productive than the average first-round wide receiver.
3. Justin Jefferson, LSU Tigers
Projected yards/season, first five years: 599
Scouts Inc.: No. 16 overall
Similar historical prospects: Roy Williams, Michael Crabtree
If you read only Jefferson's stat line at LSU, you might think he was far and away the best wide receiver in this year's draft. Jefferson caught 111 passes for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. However, LSU passed the ball 569 times in 2019. After adjusting Jefferson's numbers on a per-play basis, he falls behind both Lamb and Jeudy. His numbers are still good, of course, and they put his projection about 30 yards per season ahead of the average wide receiver drafted in the first round.
Moreover, Jefferson did have to compete with Biletnikoff Award winner Ja'Marr Chase for passes. Chase is not in this year's draft. He's not eligible until 2021, so Jefferson does not get a bump for competing with a talented teammate. However, even if Chase were able to enter this year's draft and was projected as a first-round pick, Jefferson would still fall just short of Jeudy's projection.
4. Henry Ruggs III, Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected yards/season, first five years: 567
Scouts Inc.: No. 11 overall
Similar historical prospects: Laveranues Coles, Travis Taylor
There is an appealing theory supporting Ruggs' success. Ruggs played in one of the most talented receiving corps in college football history and might have dominated on a team with less competition for passes. Ruggs also flashed big-play greatness, averaging 18.7 yards per catch.
However, the counterfactual is that a mid-first-round pick is a high price to pay for a wide receiver who never had more than 746 receiving yards in a single season. As a junior, Ruggs averaged less than 2.0 yards per team attempt. The most successful wide receiver in playmaker's data set to average less than 2.0 yards per team attempt in his best college season is Coles. Coles is actually a fairly good comp for Ruggs because Coles had to compete with other highly drafted wide receivers (namely, Peter Warrick and Ron Dugans) during his senior year at Florida State.
However, after Coles, the record of wide receivers with less than 2.0 yards per team attempt is not good. The second best is Kenny Stills, and it goes downhill from there. Only two wide receivers since 1996 have been drafted in the first round and averaged less than 2.0 yards per attempt: Cordarrelle Patterson and Travis Taylor. Neither made much of an impact in the NFL. (Well, Patterson made an impact as a return man, but not really as a wide receiver.)
Ruggs' potential upside is intriguing, and his unique situation makes it easy to explain away his low production. Those explanations might ultimately prove to be right. However, playmaker is concerned that Ruggs' production might be too low, even after accounting for the intense competition for passes in Alabama's offense. Overall, playmaker sees Ruggs as a prospect who belongs in the middle of the first round rather than near the top.
5. Jalen Reagor, TCU Horned Frogs
Projected yards/season, first five years: 566
Scouts Inc.: No. 20 overall
Similar historical prospects: Koren Robinson, Chad Jackson
Reagor's production was better than Ruggs', but Reagor had much less competition for passes in the TCU offense. Other than Reagor, the most productive wide receiver on TCU was Taye Barber with 372 yards -- a far cry from the dominant wideouts who played with Ruggs at Alabama. Reagor gets a boost because he was heavily involved in the Horned Frogs' rushing offense (he averaged one rushing attempt per game) and because he entered the draft as an underclassman.
6. Tee Higgins, Clemson Tigers
Projected yards/season, first five years: 552
Scouts Inc.: No. 23 overall
Similar historical prospects: Torrey Smith, Reggie Williams
Higgins has the same issue as Jefferson: His raw numbers look good but are less impressive when adjusted on a per-play basis. Higgins had 1,167 receiving yards and caught 13 touchdown passes as a junior. However, Clemson attempted 509 passes, which brings Higgins' rate stats a bit lower than you would like for a first-round pick.
Potential sleeper
7. Tyler Johnson, Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected yards/season, first five years: 303
Scouts Inc.: No. 182 overall
Similar historical prospects: Deion Branch, Justin McCareins
The most productive receiver in this draft class is not Lamb or Jeudy. It's Johnson. As a senior, Johnson recorded 1,318 yards with 13 touchdowns. However, his numbers are even more impressive when you consider that Minnesota attempted only 323 passes in 2019, resulting in an outstanding 4.08 receiving yards per team attempt.
To put Johnson's yardage numbers in perspective, only 18 drafted FBS/Division I-A wide receivers hit 4.0 yards per team attempt or higher in their college careers and most of them were ultimately first- and second-round picks. The most lowly drafted of the group to date is McCareins, who was drafted in the fourth round and significantly outperformed his draft projection. Although playmaker significantly downgrades Johnson's prospects because he enters the draft as a senior, his outstanding production more than suffices to overcome his upperclassman status.
Johnson fits the profile of a wide receiver who could succeed despite a relatively humble draft position. The typical profile of a successful late-round wide receiver is not a raw height-weight-speed player with little production. It's a productive college wide receiver who scouts maybe second-guessed a little too much. Johnson fits the latter description to a T.
That humble draft projection is, of course, the real damper on Johnson's playmaker score -- Scouts Inc. projects him as worthy of a pick near the very top of the sixth round. Although there are many famous examples of fifth- and sixth-rounders who become stars, the vast majority of these players either have very short careers or never make it out of training camp. So will Johnson buck the trend and be a star? Probably not. However, his chances are considerably better than most fifth- and sixth-round picks. Even accounting for Johnson's projected draft position, playmaker thinks Johnson has more than twice the chance of succeeding as a typical fifth- or sixth-round wide receiver -- or roughly the same chance of succeeding as a typical wide receiver drafted in the third round.
Methodology
Playmaker score is based on a statistical analysis of all of the Division I wide receivers drafted in the years 1996 to 2017, and measures the following:
The wide receiver's projected draft position. These projections use the draft projections from Scouts Inc.
The wide receiver prospect's best or "peak" season for receiving yards per team attempt (i.e., a wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards whose team passed 400 times would score a 2.5)
The wide receiver prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt
The difference between the prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team and the prospect's most recent season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt (this factor is simply "0" for a player whose peak season was his most recent season)
A variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen and punishes those who exhaust their college eligibility
The wide receiver's rushing attempts per game during their peak season for receiving yards per team attempt
A factor that gives a bonus to wide receivers who played for the same college team, entered the draft in the same year and are projected to be drafted.
Those of you familiar with playmaker score might notice that we have changed the factors a bit this year. First, we have added a factor for "talented wide receiver teammates" for the first time. Historically, playmaker score has underrated those wide receivers who had fewer yards and touchdowns because they split passes with one or more other talented wide receivers. The new metric fixes that problem. Second, we have eliminated the vertical jump and the yards per reception metric from the model. These two metrics were never especially strong predictors of performance and their predictive value has faded considerably in recent drafts.
Playmaker's primary output projects the average number of regular-season receiving yards that the wide receiver will gain per year over the course of his first five NFL seasons.