There's no risk in the NFL quite like the risk of drafting a quarterback. No defense revolves around a single player the way every offense revolves around the quarterback. Trust your offense to the wrong young quarterback, and your team isn't going to climb back into playoff contention. Quarterbacks get drafted earlier than players who rank similarly at their respective positions. And while quarterbacks have more statistics measuring them than other players do, teams haven't been more accurate in drafting them. Just ask the Chicago Bears, who selected Mitchell Trubisky before Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes three years ago.
The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That's the point of Football Outsiders' quarterback-adjusted stats and experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience, and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss). To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3-5 of his career according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) metric. A total of 50,000 simulations produces a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.
You'll notice that every listed quarterback prospect has a chance to be elite, and every quarterback has a chance to be a bust. That reflects just how much we don't know about drafting quarterbacks, and the wide range of possible outcomes for each player.
QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long résumé of college success, according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt (adjusted for touchdowns and interceptions), and team passing efficiency (measured with Bill Connelly's passing SP+ stats). These numbers are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates. QBASE is meant to be used only on players chosen in the top 100 picks; after that, the judgment of scouts becomes even more important, and statistics become even less predictive.
Skip ahead to a QB:
Burrow | Tagovailoa | Love
Herbert | Fromm | Eason
Hurts | Gordon
Overall, QBASE thinks this is a good year for moderately promising quarterback prospects. None of this year's quarterbacks comes close to the top projections in QBASE history, in part because no top quarterback prospect this year has four full seasons as a college starter.
However, this is the first year with three prospects with mean projections over 600 DYAR since 2012 (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson) and the first year with five prospects with mean projections over 400 DYAR since 2006. Then again, those five quarterbacks in 2006 were Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson -- once again demonstrating that projecting quarterbacks is very difficult.
Here are projections for eight quarterbacks who might go in the top 100 picks of the 2020 NFL draft.
Joe Burrow, LSU Tigers
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 2
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 759 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 42%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 27%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 18%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 13%
Joe Burrow's 2019 season was among the greatest in college football history. He set a record with 60 touchdown passes. His completion rate of 76.3% was the second highest ever. His 12.5 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked fourth. He did this against an above-average schedule in the SEC.
Burrow's forecast takes a small hit from playing alongside a very high amount of draftable talent, highlighted by likely first-round picks Justin Jefferson (this year) and Ja'Marr Chase (next year). But the experience variable is the main reason Burrow's QBASE projection is not higher. The system still identifies the risk that comes with drafting a quarterback with only two years of starting experience. Nonetheless, Burrow has the second-highest projection ever for a quarterback with less than three years of starting experience.
Top QBASE projections for one-year and two-year starters, from 1997 to 2020:
1. Alex Smith (2005): 798
2. Joe Burrow (2020): 759
3. Cam Newton (2011): 698
4. Tua Tagovailoa (2020): 653
5. Kyler Murray (2019): 595
6. JaMarcus Russell (2007): 570
7. Sam Bradford (2010): 545
8. Vince Young (2006): 536
9. Dwayne Haskins (2019): 527
10. Tim Couch (1999): 474
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama Crimson Tide
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 7
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 653 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 46%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 27%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 19%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 8%
As a sophomore, Tagovailoa had 12.8 adjusted passing yards per attempt, the third-highest number ever. As a junior, Tagovailoa had 13.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt before he injured his hip. That would be the highest number ever if Tagovailoa had not missed time and failed to qualify for College Football Reference's historical rankings. So the elements of QBASE based on past performance like Tagovailoa an awful lot.
On the other hand, QBASE has a variable to discount quarterbacks whose stats are helped by playing with a lot of draftable talent at the wide receiver and offensive line positions. And in the history of QBASE, which goes back to 1997, no quarterback played with more talent in his final college season than Tagovailoa in 2019.
Three different Alabama teammates are forecast to be top-20 picks in the upcoming draft: tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. and wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. Two more of Tagovailoa's offensive teammates are likely to be top-10 picks in next year's draft: tackle Alex Leatherwood and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Receiver DeVonta Smith and guard Deonte Brown are also likely to be drafted in 2021. As a result, the projected draft value for Tagovailoa's teammates is over 60% higher than the previous quarterback who played with the most draftable talent, Danny Wuerffel in 1997.
(Burrow is also in the top five for teammate value, along with Johnny Manziel and Matt Leinart.)
Tagovailoa's schedule also wasn't as hard as you might expect for the SEC; due to his injury, he missed Auburn (fifth in SP+ defense) and the bowl game with Michigan (11th).
These elements drop Tagovailoa only a little bit, however. So he still has one of the all-time best QBASE projections for a quarterback with only two years of starting experience.
Jordan Love, Utah State Aggies
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 22
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 57 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 64%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 23%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 10%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 2%
Scouts are high on Love's arm talent and smooth release, but his final year of college was quite unimpressive. Thanks in part to 17 interceptions with only 20 touchdowns, his already mediocre 7.2 yards per attempt number becomes 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt. Over the past decade, the only top-100 pick with a lower adjusted yards per attempt in his final college season was C.J. Beathard. Love had this poor performance against the easiest schedule of pass defenses faced by any of this year's top quarterback prospects.
But there's an asterisk here, which is that Love's performance declined dramatically between his sophomore and junior seasons. In 2018, Love had a far more impressive 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt, with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. If Love had come out a year ago, he would have had a higher projection (420 DYAR). Teams considering Love in this year's draft need to watch two years' worth of film and figure out what changed for him in 2019.
Justin Herbert, Oregon Ducks
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 23
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 689 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 43%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 28%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 19%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 11%
Herbert has started for two full seasons and two partial seasons at Oregon, so we counted him with three seasons for the purposes of QBASE. That gives him the second-best projection this year, ahead of Tagovailoa but still behind Burrow. Where Herbert takes a bit of a hit is that Oregon was only 36th in FBS in passing SP+ this season.
Jake Fromm, Georgia Bulldogs
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 57
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 439 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 51%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 28%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 15%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 7%
Fromm gets a boost in QBASE from three years of starting experience. Both his 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt and 61% completion rate last season are below the mean for top-100 picks over the past 20 years, but he played the hardest schedule among this year's top quarterback prospects. And like Love, Fromm declined in his final season, as he had a 67% completion rate and 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt in 2018. Unlike Love, Fromm's QBASE projection would have been lower had he come out a year ago with less experience (208 DYAR).
Jacob Eason, Washington Huskies
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 60
Mean projection in Years 3-5: -98 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 68%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 21%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 9%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 2%
Eason's 2019 season stats were close to the mean for top-100 quarterback prospects, but he put up those numbers against an easier-than-average schedule. Combine that with a lower expected draft position (end of the second round) and only two years of starting experience, and Eason does poorly in our QBASE projections.
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma Sooners
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 98
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 410 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 51%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 25%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 16%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 7%
The QBASE system likes Hurts even though he's projected to be a late third- or early fourth-round pick. He has three years of starting experience and had awesome statistics at Oklahoma in his senior season: 70% completion rate and 12.2 adjusted yards per attempt. That latter number is the sixth-highest qualifying AYPA number in FBS history. But when you look at the five players ahead of him, you sense the biggest question about Hurts. Those players include Baker Mayfield twice and Kyler Murray. Four of the top six APYA seasons ever come from Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma offense. How much of Hurts' performance is Hurts, and how much is the offense, especially considering the big jump in Hurts' stats from his two starting seasons at Alabama to last season at Oklahoma?
Anthony Gordon, Washington State Cougars
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 116
Mean projection in Years 3-5: -234 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 72%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 20%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 7%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 1%
It's hard to put too much faith in Gordon considering that his only season as a starter came as a redshirt senior. Even Gordon's good-looking stats aren't as impressive as they might seem at first glance. He was second in FBS with 5,579 passing yards and fourth with 48 touchdowns, but those stats were partially the product of ranking first in pass attempts in Mike Leach's pass-friendly Washington State offense. Gordon was also helped by an easier schedule in the offense-friendly Pac-12. His 8.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked only sixth in the conference.