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2020 free agency: NFL experts debate most improved teams, best signings, more

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Is Jimmy Graham being overvalued by the Bears? (1:52)

The NFL Live crew questions whether Jimmy Graham is capable of performing at the same level as he ages, and whether the Bears are overvaluing him with his new contract. (1:52)

Two star receivers were traded. A six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback is set to wear a new uniform for the first time in his career. And plenty of high-impact playmakers on both sides of the ball will suit up in new cities in 2020. It was a wild first week of NFL free agency, and there are even a few big names still out there on the market.

Tying the dozens of signings together as the dust starts to settle, our panel of NFL experts returns to answer several questions this week. Let's jump in.

Jump to:
Best move | Worst move
Most improved | Best bargain
Biggest remaining need

See more: Experts on the biggest deals of free agency

Which team still has the biggest hole to fill?

Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: The Indianapolis Colts at wide receiver. The Colts didn't sign a free-agent receiver, and they head into the draft without a first-round pick after trading it for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. Look for them to address the position -- in a deep wide receiver class -- early on Day 2 to add another target for new quarterback Philip Rivers.

Mike Clay, fantasy writer: The Carolina Panthers on defense. OK, not all of it, but most of it. The Panthers cleaned house under new coach Matt Rhule and currently have only four players rostered who played at least 30% of Carolina's defensive snaps last season (Brian Burns, Shaq Thompson, Donte Jackson and Tre Boston). Defensive tackle, edge, safety and cornerback all need significant attention.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: The Green Bay Packers at tight end. That Green Bay didn't make a harder push for Austin Hooper was a bit curious. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers needs help over the middle and at the complementary receiver spots opposite Davante Adams. Tight end is weak in the draft, too.

Mina Kimes, NFL writer: The New England Patriots at quarterback. I refuse to believe they're going to roll into 2020 with Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer as their only two options. But the Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets and New York Giants all need pass-rushers, too. I imagine Jadeveon Clowney and Yannick Ngakoue (via a trade) will end up on two of those three teams.

Jason Reid, senior writer, The Undefeated: The Patriots at quarterback. The Pats lost Tom Brady. Let that sink in for a moment. Perhaps Stidham will be up to the challenge. Or maybe the Patriots will trade for a veteran passer or sign someone still out there in free agency. At this point, however, QB is a canyon-sized hole in New England.

Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: The Patriots at quarterback. Obviously. Certainly he could surprise, but nothing Stidham did in college projects him as even an average NFL starting quarterback.

Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: The Patriots at quarterback. It wouldn't be the first time the Patriots have proved doubters wrong, but at this moment, it's entirely fair to doubt whether Stidham has any business as a starting quarterback in the NFL. After a free-agent market that featured an unprecedented number of available starters, the Patriots' decision to sit tight has raised eyebrows.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: The Jets at wide receiver. General manager Joe Douglas has been hammering the offensive line so far this offseason, doing an excellent job of creating competition and improving the group on the whole, while also remaining in position for a top offensive tackle in the draft. The Jets added Breshad Perriman, but the team's lone other receiver who is fully healthy and played a prominent role last season is Jamison Crowder. That's an area to further address.


What has been the best bargain deal of free agency so far?

Bowen: The Saints signing Emmanuel Sanders. At two years, $16 million, the Saints add a proven No. 2 wide receiver opposite Michael Thomas. Sanders is a detailed route runner who can separate from man defenders while finding open windows in zone coverage. That's a fit for quarterback Drew Brees in Sean Payton's system.

Clay: The Chargers signing Chris Harris Jr. Harris has been one of the league's best slot corners over the past decade and displayed his versatility by showing well on the perimeter during the 2019 season. He's now 31 years old, but it doesn't appear he has lost a step, so landing him for $11.5 million guaranteed over two seasons is quite the value. The Chargers now have the league's best cornerback trio.

Fowler: The Seahawks re-signing Jarran Reed. Reed would have been too pricey to retain a year ago, after a double-digit-sack season. But a suspension and a drop in production in 2019 helped Seattle swoop in for the late re-sign at a reasonable two years and $23 million. If he recaptures his 2018 form, this is a major bargain.

Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: The Falcons signing Todd Gurley II. We know the issues with Gurley and why the Rams cut him. His contract was too big. His health is suspect. But he's still an impact player when he has the ball in his hands, and $6 million is a steal if he ends up healthy for even, say, 12 games.

Kimes: The Chargers signing Bryan Bulaga. While the former Packers offensive tackle has battled injuries at various points in his career, he's incredibly polished and experienced, and signed for basically the same amount of money (three years, $30 million) as George Fant.

Reid: The Saints signing Sanders. Sanders agreed to a two-year, $16 million deal (it could become as much as $19 million) to be the team's No. 2 wideout behind Thomas. Sanders is outstanding working from the slot and a strong route runner. This move was great for both Brees and everyone involved in managing the Saints' cap.

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0:32
How Cardinals' free agency moves impact their draft decisions

Josh Weinfuss explains how each of the Cardinals' moves in free agency, including trading for DeAndre Hopkins, was strategic as he looks ahead to the NFL draft.

Schatz: The Chargers signing Bulaga. That three-year, $30 million contract looks like a bargain considering that the Jets signed Fant, who has never started for a full season, at three years and $27.3 million.

Seifert: The Steelers signing Eric Ebron. Ebron has made huge plays and flubbed a maddening number of others in his career. But the risk is low for the Steelers, at just two years, $12 million, especially compared to the deal the Browns gave tight end Austin Hooper.

Yates: The Patriots re-signing Devin McCourty. I'm always a fan of investing (two years, $23 million) in your own players, particularly one who is as indispensable as any other on the defensive side of the ball (certainly along with cornerback Stephon Gilmore). McCourty is one of the best players in football and an indispensable cog for the Patriots' defense.


What has been the biggest head-scratching move (outside of the Texans' trading of DeAndre Hopkins)?

Bowen: The Bears signing Jimmy Graham. Even with an obvious need at the position, Chicago GM Ryan Pace's decision to give the 33-year-old Graham a two-year deal for $16 million -- with $9 million paid out in the first season -- doesn't add up here. At this stage of his career, Graham isn't a dynamic threat in the passing game due to his declining play speed, and he will need to be schemed open to produce in coach Matt Nagy's offense.

Clay: The Bears trading for Nick Foles. The Bears have made a few head-scratching moves, but perhaps the biggest was trading for Foles (one of 2019's worst free-agent signings) as competition for Mitchell Trubisky. The move all but puts Chicago into quarterback purgatory for the near future and places any chances of a playoff run in serious jeopardy.

Fowler: The Lions signing Halapoulivaati Vaitai. The former Eagles offensive tackle did a nice job in spot duty last season, but $45 million over five years is too rich for a player with 20 starts in four seasons. Jack Conklin wasn't much more expensive than that, signing with Cleveland for $42 million over three years. The Lions are spending more than $130 million this free-agency cycle, and it's still uncertain how all the pieces will fit.

Graziano: I'm still wondering how the Jaguars couldn't get more than a fifth-round pick for Calais Campbell. I get that they had to move him for money reasons, and that he's no spring chicken. But in a market where most of the top pass-rushers got franchise-tagged, I would have expected a productive player and leader like Campbell to bring more back.

Kimes: The Jets signing George Fant. I was surprised by how few bad deals were signed, but the Jets' three-year, $30 million deal with Fant, who was essentially a backup offensive tackle in Seattle (as well as a tight end), was puzzling. Even though just $13.7 million of Fant's salary is guaranteed, it seems risky to bet on him protecting Sam Darnold as a starter.

Reid: The Bears taking on Foles' contract. Look, I get that Foles, a former Super Bowl MVP, was a fabulous backup for the Eagles. And I also get that the Bears need someone to challenge Trubisky for the No. 1 job. But they had to take on, to put it kindly, the highly questionable contract that the Jaguars gave Foles. Combined with the signing of Graham, the Bears made two huge head-scratchers.

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Stephen A. names his 2 most improved NFL teams

Stephen A. Smith explains why he believes the Buccaneers and the Browns are the most improved teams after their recent transactions.

Schatz: The Bears signing Graham. Foles brings a worse and much more expensive contract, but that move was more predictable than Chicago going out immediately after free agency started and signing a very average, clearly over-the-hill tight end. Graham has been below average in Football Outsiders' receiving DVOA for three straight seasons. And does this mean the Bears have given up on the idea of Trey Burton as their big tight end weapon?

Seifert: The Patriots letting Tom Brady depart. This decision was years in the making, and it was as much Brady's as it was the Patriots'. But it was the result of institutional stubbornness. Why did the Patriots create an environment that the best player in NFL history, still playing at a pretty good level, wanted to leave?

Yates: The Bengals spending big in free agency. To be clear, I admire what they are doing. D.J. Reader is a great player, and the secondary is unquestionably better with Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander. I'm just so accustomed to the Bengals being spectators during free agency that these moves caught me off guard.


What has been the best offseason addition?

Bowen: The Buccaneers signing Tom Brady. With the pass-game weapons already in place at wide receiver and tight end, signing Brady elevates the entire Bucs offense. And Tampa Bay can continue to build this system around Brady with scheme-specific talent by drafting a Day 2 running back with pass-catching traits.

Clay: The Cardinals trading for DeAndre Hopkins. I talked up Brady earlier this week, so I'll go with Hopkins here because A) Steve Keim and Kliff Kingsbury adamantly expressed a need for a perimeter, vertical receiver at the combine, and B) Arizona got such an incredibly good deal, which included getting backup running back David Johnson off the books. Supplying second-year quarterback Kyler Murray with a go-to weapon is huge for his development and figures to lead to a breakout 2020 for the Arizona offense.

Fowler: The Colts signing Philip Rivers. Everything makes sense about this pairing, from the familiarity between Rivers and coach Frank Reich to the modest money (one year, $25 million) to a team taking a chance because it knows it's close. The Colts are smart to think Rivers might return to 2018 form behind one of the game's best offensive lines.

Graziano: The Buccaneers signing Brady. Steadier quarterback play makes a huge difference in an offense with as many high-end targets as Tampa Bay's unit has, and Brady immediately elevates the Bucs from one of the league's most invisible teams to one of its most interesting. The impact on ticket sales alone is worth the signing.

Kimes: The Cardinals trading for Hopkins. He's a Hall of Fame-caliber receiver, and the Cardinals were able to procure his services at a ridiculously low cost. Even if they give him the big extension he apparently desires, it's still an incredibly good move and a godsend for Murray's development.

Reid: The Buccaneers signing Brady. The most successful quarterback in NFL history is just the right guy to end Tampa Bay's playoff drought at 12 seasons. Unlike last season with New England, Brady will have weapons on the outside with his new team. He'll make good use of them.

Schatz: The Colts signing Rivers. I think the upgrade from Jacoby Brissett to Rivers might be bigger than the upgrade from Jameis Winston to Brady. The Colts' offensive line will give Rivers time to stay upright and work down the field -- protection that's particularly important for an older and less mobile quarterback.

Seifert: The Cardinals trading for Hopkins. When someone offers you the chance to acquire a 27-year-old three-time All-Pro, plus the chance to dump Johnson's terrible contract, and you don't even have to give up a first-round pick? You take it and then simply blush at all the awards.

Yates: The Cardinals trading for Hopkins. GM Steve Keim deserves high marks for his full body of work this offseason, with the Hopkins trade right at the top of the list. No team played more snaps with four wide receivers than the Cardinals last year, and now the team boasts arguably the game's best at the position. He might well need a new deal from Arizona, but he is worth it.


Which team is the most improved after the first wave of free agency?

Bowen: Cleveland Browns. Cleveland upgraded with scheme-specific players for coach Kevin Stefanski's system in tight end Austin Hooper and right tackle Jack Conklin. With Hooper, the Browns now have a middle-of-the-field target for quarterback Baker Mayfield to stretch the seams and run crossers off play-action. And on the offensive line, Conklin is a prime fit for Stefanski's zone run system.

Clay: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are teams that added multiple impact players, but no team got nearly as much of a boost from one player as Tampa Bay did by signing quarterback Tom Brady. Brady vaults the Buccaneers from a borderline playoff contender to a strong bet to push for 10 wins and potentially an NFC South crown. The Bucs also did well to re-sign edge rushers Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul.

Fowler: Miami Dolphins. Miami easily could have leaned on its 14 draft picks to address its positional needs, but let's credit the organization for recognizing the draft won't be enough. There are needs all over the field, so coach Brian Flores and general manager Chris Grier threw cash at a high-level corner (Byron Jones), capable pass-rushers (Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah), a leader in the middle of the defense (linebacker Kyle Van Noy), interior offensive line help (Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras) and a tailback eager for a workload (Jordan Howard). The moves liberate Miami to prioritize athleticism regardless of position throughout the draft.

Graziano: Indianapolis Colts. The DeForest Buckner move isn't getting the attention it deserves. He'll play the vital 3-technique defensive tackle position in the Colts' defense and make everyone around him better. And the big signing on offense was, of course, quarterback Philip Rivers, who will play with better pass protection than he has had in years and should rebound for a late-career shot at that elusive Super Bowl.

Kimes: Arizona Cardinals. I'm tempted to pick the Colts, who got better on both sides of the ball with Rivers and Buckner, or the Dolphins, who will improve simply by adding starting-level players, but wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins -- acquired in a trade with Houston -- was the best player to change teams.

Reid: Miami Dolphins. This is an easy call for me. The Dolphins had a ton of cap space and put it to good use. Obviously, the Jones signing was the biggest move. The versatile Pro Bowl defensive back is a lights-out cover guy. Lawson will help in the pass rush, too. The Dolphins added quality depth and experience across the roster.

Schatz: Arizona Cardinals. Sorry to continue to harp on the Hopkins trade, but the Cardinals added a top-10 receiver and all it cost them was an overpaid running back (David Johnson) they didn't even want to start. Jordan Phillips and Devon Kennard are useful defensive pieces as well.

Seifert: Cleveland Browns. They objectively improved at every position they addressed. Hooper was the best tight end available and fills a mandatory need in Stefanski's offense. Conklin makes their offensive line better. Quarterback Case Keenum gives them a better chance to compete if Mayfield gets injured. Importantly, none of these additions comes with much risk.

Yates: Miami Dolphins. They have added a significant amount of talent that should immediately improve an already ascending team. While the team undoubtedly dug deep into its pockets to afford all of these players, the returns should be immediate. The signings carry a common thread of not just scheme fits but also high-character individuals.