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          How each NFL divisional-round team advances: Game plan keys to victory for all eight squads

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          Scott: Titans are a tough matchup for Ravens (0:52)

          Bart Scott explains why the Titans will be a difficult matchup for the Ravens in the AFC divisional round. (0:52)

          • Matt BowenJan 9, 2020, 07:30 AM ET
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              Matt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.
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          The field grows thinner in Week 2 of the NFL playoffs, as the wild-card weekend winners advance to meet the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in each conference. Super Bowl LIV stands just two wins away.

          The pair of improbable 6-seed upsets to open the postseason illustrates how anything can happen -- especially if teams can carry out their strategy. Let's dive into all four divisional-round games and see how each team moves on to the conference title games.

          Here are a couple of game plan keys -- one offensive and one defensive -- that can create matchup edges and a path to the conference championships for all eight teams still in play.

          Jump to:
          AFC: TEN | BAL | HOU | KC
          NFC: MIN | SF | SEA | GB

          The Minnesota Vikings beat the 49ers if ...

          1. They get running back Dalvin Cook volume in zone and gap schemes

          Cook played with some serious juice in the Vikings' wild-card win over the Saints, rushing for 98 yards and two touchdowns on a season-high 28 carries. The volume was there. So was the play speed. And why would that change heading into Saturday's matchup with the 49ers? Attack the San Francisco four-man fronts out of 12 personnel (1RB, 2TE) and 21 personnel (2RB, 1TE) on both zone and gap schemes.That should be at the top of the call sheet for offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski.

          But don't forget about using 11 personnel here (1RB, 1TE) to get the 49ers into their nickel fronts. That's when Stefanski can use pre-snap movement -- jet motion and split-flow zone schemes -- to influence second-level defenders while creating natural cutback lanes for Cook. Want an example? Just go back to Cook's first touchdown run of the game in last weekend's win over New Orleans, shown below in an NFL Next Gen Stats animation. Find the daylight and go.

          2. They take away intermediate throws in split-safety coverages

          We know that Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer leans on split-safety coverage in his zone-based scheme. And we also know that Niners coach Kyle Shanahan will use Hi-Lo concepts -- the two-level reads are a staple with coaches who run West Coast systems -- to manipulate second-level defenders on in-breaking routes off play-action.

          That's why I'm looking at the Vikings linebackers as key players on Saturday in terms of their ability to close the intermediate windows. In quarters coverage, Cover 2 and Cover 6, linebackers Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks and Eric Wilson have to take those quick correction steps versus play-action and gain depth as curl or hook defenders. The athletic traits are there, and 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo can at times make some questionable throws into the teeth of zone coverage by failing to identify the underneath zone defenders.

          The San Francisco 49ers beat the Vikings if ...

          1. They scheme throws to tight end George Kittle and fullback Kyle Juszczyk

          With the expectation that Shanahan gets a heavy dose of split-safety coverage from the Vikings, look for the 49ers' coach to script throws to Kittle and Juszczyk off play-action. Occupy defenders, create coverage voids and give Garoppolo a defined matchup with room for Kittle and Juszczyk to run after the catch. Here's a good example from the regular season, with Kittle aligned in the backfield versus a quarters coverage look. San Francisco schemed a matchup versus the middle linebacker in zone coverage while getting Kittle loose in the open field.

          2. They take away the crossers in boot concepts

          I wrote about it last week for the Saints, and I'm running it back because of the Minnesota play-action passing game. Will we see more quarters coverage from the 49ers on Saturday, which would allow them to use the safeties as "cut" players versus the crossing routes in the three-level flood concepts? This season, the 49ers have played quarters coverage on 17.4% of their defensive snaps (second most in the NFL) and showed more split-safety versus the Seahawks, another boot-heavy team, in Week 17. Get out of single-high Cover 3 here, and use quarters to limit those intermediate reads for quarterback Kirk Cousins when he boots outside of the pocket.

          The Tennessee Titans beat the Ravens if ...

          1. They feature more Derrick Henry on outside zone runs

          Henry had 182 rushing yards -- including 96 after first contact -- in the Titans' wild-card win over the Patriots. So why change the script? Yes, the Titans will need to create more chunk plays in the passing game to get past Baltimore -- they're going to need points in this one -- but after watching the Ravens' defense struggle at times to limit the 49ers' outside zone run game in Week 13, I fully expect Henry to see heavy volume again. His ability to get on a downhill track can wear a defense out. And here it also allows Tennessee to limit possessions for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense.

          2. They 'spin' the safeties in the red zone

          Jackson threw 24 red zone touchdown passes this season. And with defenses consistently dedicating another defender to the box to account for the Ravens' run game, he saw a lot of single-high coverage. He's going to throw the seam ball all day there. But the Titans also have shown the ability to disguise their split-safety coverages all season: Line up in single-high with man-coverage matchups underneath, and then spin those safeties to two-deep. That will allow the Titans to cap those seam routes and also be in a position to steal one from Jackson in critical field position.

          The Baltimore Ravens beat the Titans if ...

          1. They use misdirection and jet motion to get numbers in the run game

          The misdirection out of multiple personnel groupings has been a staple of the Ravens' run game this season. Bring your big boys out there with two or three tight ends in the game. Go three wide. Or use fullback Patrick Ricard to get the numbers at the point of attack off pre-snap jet motion, with blockers wrapping to the edge of the formation.

          The Ravens -- who averaged a league-leading 206 rushing yards per game -- will test the run fits and the "option" responsibilities of the Titans' defense on Saturday night. And I haven't seen a defensive game plan yet that can shut down this run game.

          2. They figure out how to tackle Henry

          Forget scheme for a minute. Game plans, too. Henry is going to get another 20-plus carries on Saturday night -- he's averaging 26.2 over his past five games -- with outside zone at the top of the call sheet. Can the Ravens' defense tackle him for four quarters and limit the amount of yards he racks up after first contact?

          Even with the anticipation that Tennessee works to get more pass game production from quarterback Ryan Tannehill, I fully expect Tennessee to pound the ball early. And look for the Titans to also use their wide receivers on inside crack blocks to make the Ravens cornerbacks tackle Henry on the edge. This will be the most physical game of the season.

          The Houston Texans beat the Chiefs if ...

          1. They use play-action to create rhythm throws for quarterback Deshaun Watson

          Watson struggled at times to manage the pocket in the first half of the Texans' wild-card win over the Bills. In the second half, Watson threw the ball more in rhythm, tying his eyes and feet together on play-action concepts. See the field, find the matchup and get the ball out. Just look at his deep-ball throw to DeAndre Hopkins in the fourth quarter. He moved the free safety and took the one-on-one outside. When Watson last saw the Chiefs in Week 6, he showed those same positive traits in the pocket while Kansas City tried to heat him up with pressure.

          2. They run more 2-deep coverage versus the Kansas City speed

          What do you have to limit against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game? Hi-Lo concepts, deep crossers and flood. But with the track speed Kansas City has at wide receiver and the route-running ability of tight end Travis Kelce, could we see more zone-based looks from Romeo Crennel's defense on Sunday? The Texans did play man coverage in the Week 6 win over Kansas City, but aligning in a quarters shell or Cover 2 would give them layers on defense with a tent over the top of the secondary, while allowing the safeties to top the crossers to Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Kelce.

          The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Texans if ...

          1. They create matchups for tight end Travis Kelce as the boundary 'X' receiver

          This is a matchup I really like for the Chiefs, with Kelce flexed from the formation as the backside receiver in 3WR-1TE sets. And it sets Mahomes up versus both zone and man coverage. The Chiefs can work the Hi-Lo concepts, while also creating voids for Kelce on inside breaking routes. It also plays to the matchup ability of Kelce versus man defenders. Walk a safety or linebacker out in coverage, and then throw the corner route or stem to the crosser, catering to the route-running chops and frame of Kelce to create separation or win on contested throws.

          2. They feature safety Tyrann Mathieu as a 'monsterback'

          Mathieu's ability to make splash plays, along with his versatility within defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's scheme, allows the Chiefs to utilize his skill set as a "monsterback." He can drop down as robber safety -- as shown in this clip against the Chargers -- match in the slot versus Hopkins, add to a blitz front or play as single-high defender. That versatility is a key part to the multiple game plan I anticipate from Spagnuolo, meshing man and zone coverage (and sending pressure), with Mathieu playing a critical role from various pre-snap alignments.

          The Seattle Seahawks beat the Packers if ...

          1. They throw verticals, crossers and slants to DK Metcalf

          Finding answers for the run game has to be mentioned, after Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch produced just 19 yards on 17 carries in the wild-card win over the Eagles. Use more 11 "XT" personnel (bring an extra offensive tackle into the game) and create another gap for the outside zone scheme.

          But perhaps even more important, Metcalf needs a high target volume versus Green Bay after seven catches for 160 yards and a touchdown last week. Get Russell Wilson throwing outside verticals when he reads a single-high coverage or use play-action to create the intermediate void for Metcalf on crossers. And if the Packers want to play more man coverage on midrange third downs, look for Seattle to dial up their pick/rub routes to get Metcalf open underneath.

          2. They play Cover 2 in the red zone

          For as much as we associate the Seahawks' defense with single-high Cover 3, it is actually more Cover 2-heavy inside the 20-yard line. During the regular season, Seattle played Cover 2 on 28.6% of defensive snaps in the red zone, third most in the league. And I would really lean on split-safety coverage versus Aaron Rodgers in scoring position. It closes the middle of the field with linebacker Bobby Wagner as the deep middle-hole defender, and it allows the Seahawks to play top-down with their deep-half safeties. It sounds old school, but forcing Rodgers to throw underneath versus the Seahawks' defensive speed is a win.

          The Green Bay Packers beat the Seahawks if ...

          1. They attack vertically with Aaron Jones in the pass game

          Take strike-zone shots (20-35-yard line) with Jones releasing from the backfield. This is how Green Bay can attack zone coverage to create open windows in the outside third of the defense. In Week 7 versus the Raiders, the Packers ran off the top of the secondary, removed the underneath defender and created a vertical matchup for Jones versus a linebacker (shown below with NFL Next Gen Stats animation). That is where the Packers can generate a chunk play when the Seahawks do show their single-high schemes.

          2. They scheme interior pass-rush matchups for Za'Darius Smith

          As we will break down on this week's NFL Matchup show, Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine will cater to the versatility and short-area speed of Smith. Pettine can bump the outside linebacker down to rush as a defensive tackle or use him from a two-point stance to hit the A-gaps. Given the matchup advantage I see here versus Seahawks center Joey Hunt, the Packers can occupy blockers while creating an interior one-on-one for Smith to wreck the pocket in critical game situations.