The New England Patriots are 10-1 and have one of the best defenses in NFL history. And yet, there's a problem that's nagging at Patriots nation, a big reason to doubt the team that has spent the last 18 years erasing all the doubts. The questions are there in the local media, and you can hear them on sports radio:
What's wrong with the Patriots' offense?
The Patriots may rank fifth in the league in scoring, but that's in large part because of the great field position delivered by their defense -- not to mention the six touchdowns scored on defense or special teams. In terms of yards gained, the Patriots rank only 17th in the league. New England is used to being at the top of the league, not in the middle.
So where are the biggest weaknesses in this offense, and can they be fixed over the rest of the season?
The first thing to note when analyzing the problems with the Patriots' offense is that it's not as bad as it seems. Conventional wisdom seems to be confusing "terrible" with "not as good as usual." That No. 17 rank in yards per game is an example. That metric is where the Patriots offense ranks about its worst, and it's still basically average.
Football Outsiders' play-by-play metrics are even more sanguine about the Patriots' struggling offense. As of this week, the Patriots rank 10th in our offensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings. They aren't up to their usual level when it comes to gaining yardage, but New England has still avoided turnovers, with only 10 so far this season. And while their schedule seemed really easy for much of the season, as of this week the Patriots have actually played a slightly harder-than-average schedule of opposing defenses. (It's the schedule of opposing offenses that has been super easy.)
Nonetheless, things could definitely be better. The Patriots are used to a top offense. They have not finished lower than sixth in offensive DVOA since the year Tom Brady missed with injury (2008). And things have gotten worse since a strong start to the season in Weeks 1-3. Since Week 4, New England's offense has been below-average by DVOA, ranked just 18th in the league over that time.
The ground game has disappeared
The most obvious problem, though not the biggest, is the complete disintegration of the running game. The impact of the power running game on last year's Patriots offense is a bit overstated -- they were still generally a pass-first team early in games until they established a lead -- and their average of 4.3 yards per carry was just league average. But there's no question that the Patriots could gain yardage on the ground when they needed it in 2018. When we account for down-and-distance in analyzing the running game, the 2018 Patriots were ninth in run offense DVOA.
This year, the Patriots are averaging a measly 3.3 yards per carry, 30th in the league. They are just 21st in run offense DVOA. And the answer to "who is at fault" seems to be "everyone." The blocking has been poor, as evidenced by New England's rank of 17th in adjusted line yards. That's a Football Outsiders metric that splits carries of different lengths to try to separate the value of blocking from what the running backs do on their own. The Patriots are even worse, 27th in the league, when it comes to the frequency of backs getting stuffed for a loss or no gain.
But the backs aren't doing the line any favors when they do get good blocking. The Patriots rank 30th in open-field yards, which measures yards per carry that come more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Only the Jets and Dolphins are worse. Sony Michel has only 13 broken tackles this year (through Week 11) according to Sports Info Solutions charting; the only starting running back with a lower rate of broken tackles per touch is Frank Gore.
Will things get better from here on out? It's hard to count on Michel to start breaking long runs on a regular basis. You may remember the 26-yard run that helped ice the Super Bowl LIII victory over the Rams, but that was an aberration. Last year, Michel was near the bottom of starting running backs with only 23 broken tackles, and the Patriots were just 25th in open-field yards per carry. No, the difference between this year and last year is the blocking. The Patriots ranked third in adjusted line yards in 2018, and fourth in the lowest frequency of backs getting stuffed at the line.
It's hard to argue that the Patriots are going to get back the blocking they had last year. Both right-side blockers, Shaq Mason and Marcus Cannon, are having off years, and could theoretically return to last year's level of play. But the Patriots have downgraded at center with David Andrews missing the year with circulatory issues, and the retirement of Rob Gronkowski deprived them of one of the NFL's best blocking tight ends. The best argument for improvement is to hope that left tackle Isaiah Wynn, now that he's healthy, can be what Trent Brown was at the position last year. But in Wynn's return to action against Dallas, the Patriots had their second-lowest game of the year by rushing DVOA.
A step back for Tom Brady?
The decline of the Patriots' offensive line has also had a major effect on the passing game. Brady isn't suddenly taking a lot of sacks; the Patriots still rank third in the league in lowest adjusted sack rate on offense. And surprisingly, the Patriots are just fourth in pressure rate allowed according to ESPN Stats & Information charting (22.2% of passes).
Nonetheless, ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate suggests that the blocking has been a big problem for the passing game this year. The Patriots currently rank 26th with a 52.6% PBWR. A year ago, they were 10th, at 60.8%. You can see the effects of this every time Brady hurries a throw and sends the ball just out of the reach of one of his receivers. Plus, Brady leads the league with 26 passes this year where there's no intended receiver listed in the play-by-play. He's the only quarterback in the league with 20 or more such passes.
This is the place where the return of Wynn is likely to help. Replacement Marshall Newhouse was 153rd out of 168 qualifying linemen in PBWR. If Wynn can be just league average, that will be a big step up for the Patriots' pass protection. But there's still going to be a problem on the right side. Cannon has ranked even worse than Newhouse in PBWR, 158th among qualifying linemen, and that's not just an off year. Last year, he was 153rd.
The decline in pass protection has complicated Brady's problem dealing with the blitz. For years, blitzing Brady was a bad idea because he played so well against extra pass-rushers. That's not the case anymore. Brady's 40.6 QBR against the blitz ranks 30th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. That's significantly lower than his QBR against the blitz last season (68.6, 12th) or the year before (73.8, 11th).
There are a lot of possible scapegoats for this difficulty with the blitz. Pass protection is certainly part of the problem. Brady's decline with age could be a culprit. There also could be a problem with the receivers' ability to get open quickly so that Brady can hit a hot route. And this is where new addition Mohamed Sanu could play a big role once he's healthy again. Based on NFL Next Gen Stats, Sanu gets open within two seconds on 74% of his routes, near the top of the league for wide receivers. The rest of the Patriots' wide receivers are below the NFL average of 66% -- even Julian Edelman, at 65%.
The trouble with the blitz is mirrored by overall bad numbers for Brady whenever he is pressured. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he has a dismal QBR of 13.4 when under duress, 30th among qualifying quarterbacks. But surprisingly, that might be good news for the improvement of the Patriots' offense. Research has shown that performance in a clean pocket is more consistent and more predictive than performance under pressure. Brady's 55.0 QBR from a clean pocket (14th) certainly doesn't live up to his previous level of performance, but it ranks a lot better than his performance under pressure, suggesting that his performance under pressure should improve over the rest of the season.
There's another metric that also suggests that the Patriots' offensive struggles could benefit from some positive regression in the next few weeks. New England's offense is only 19th in the red zone (24th since Week 4). Over time, red zone performance tends to regress toward a team's total performance -- which, remember, is better in the Patriots' case.
Looking ahead
Despite some reasons for optimism, it's very hard to see how the Patriots return to their previous level of offensive glory over the rest of the 2019 season. It's most likely that things get a little better than they have been in the past few weeks -- that the Patriots play closer to their ranking of 10th over the course of the whole season than their ranking of 18th over the last few weeks.
The good news for Patriots fans is that this level of offense is combined with the stellar defense and special teams the Patriots are putting on the field this year, plus a very likely No. 1 seed in the AFC. That's a combination that's good enough to make the Patriots the current favorites to win Super Bowl LIV, even with the offense struggling compared to the offense of recent Patriots championship teams.