Lamar Jackson's four-touchdown day against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10 brought him to a benchmark: 16 regular-season starts. That's one full season's worth of data for the second-year quarterback, who -- if you can believe it -- is the last of the five QBs picked in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft to reach the 16-start mark.
That means it's a perfect time to stack those signal-callers, taking a look back at their rookie seasons, how they've fared in Year 2, and what to expect from them the rest of 2019. I dug deep into the tape on Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen to identify their strengths and weaknesses. Sorry, Mason Rudolph -- I'm just focusing on the first-rounders from the class.
My ranking has to start with Jackson, who is an MVP candidate and could be in the running for the NFL's Most Improved Player:
1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Why he's ranked here: Jackson ranks fourth in the league in Total QBR (78.1) through 10 weeks of the season, and his dual-threat ability makes the Baltimore offense one of the league's toughest units to defend. He's a legitimate MVP candidate. With clear signs of development as a thrower in offensive coordinator Greg Roman's system -- he has 15 touchdown passes this season -- Jackson's growth from his rookie season jumps. This doesn't look like the same quarterback who struggled throwing the ball in the playoff loss to the Chargers. And it's the high-level production this season and that improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 that makes Jackson the clear choice over the rest of the 2018 class.
Biggest strength: Dynamic, playmaking traits
Stat to know: Jackson has rushed for 419 yards and five touchdowns on designed QB runs this season, by far the most in the league.
With Roman building a game plan that caters to his quarterback's skill set, Jackson has rushed for a total of 702 yards -- at 6.62 yards per carry -- and the designed-run concepts put defenders in conflict. Plus, with the former No. 32 overall pick's ability to make second-reaction plays as a both a runner and thrower, he consistently puts pressure on opposing defensive game plans. Jackson also leads the NFL in QBR when blitzed (92.2), which shows off his ability to throw strikes when pressured or scramble away from pass-rushers to get first downs. How Roman & Co. have maximized Jackson's dual-threat ability has been fun to watch, and it has paid off in the Ravens' 7-2 start.
Biggest weakness: Ball placement
Stat to know: Jackson is completing 52.1% of passes that travel 10 to 20 yards (23rd in the NFL) this season.
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After completing less than 60% of his passes as a rookie, Jackson has upped his overall completion percentage to 65.2% this season, which is 13th in the league. That's a huge improvement. But we still see situations in which Jackson's ball placement can improve in intermediate throws. And Roman can create more production here with multiple tight end packages as Jackson continues to develop as a second-level passer. Give Jackson those big-body tight ends at the point of attack who can make pays outside of their frame. Throw the seams, the crossers, the in-cuts. And pepper the middle of the field. That's how Jackson can be even better.
Prediction for the rest of the season: Jackson is going to finish in the top three in MVP voting, and he's going to lead the Ravens to a first-round bye in the playoffs. This offense is designed to maximize his talent, and the return of rookie wide receiver Marquise Brown from injury gives Jackson a true explosive threat in the passing game.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Why he's ranked here: Let's be honest here -- Nos. 2-4 on this list are extremely close, and it's not because they've all been excellent. After a season's worth of starts, Allen, Mayfield and Darnold all have major issues and rank near the bottom of the league in multiple statistical categories. But this is my ranking, and I have Allen just barely ahead of Mayfield because of his development in a Bills system that has highlighted his natural tools. While Mayfield has struggled with consistency in his second pro season -- despite his top-tier traits as a thrower -- the Buffalo coaching staff continues to put Allen, the former No. 7 overall pick, in favorable positions that cater to both his arm talent and movement skills.
Biggest strength: Arm talent with second-reaction ability
Stat to know: Allen is completing 64.4% of passes traveling 10-20 yards (seventh in the NFL) this season.
Allen's overall passing numbers are ugly in Year 2. He ranks 30th in the league in Total QBR (38.0) and is completing just 59.9% of his passes. But in a power-based Bills offense that creates play-pass opportunities and isolation throws, Allen has been extremely productive targeting the intermediate zones. Throw the deep curl or comeback to John Brown. Attack the middle field. Toss in some run-pass options. Or hit the open-window crossers. Now pair that with his rushing ability -- his six touchdown runs are tied with Jackson -- and the second-reaction plays that pop on the film, which increase his value. This is how offensive coordinator Brian Daboll plays to Allen's strengths, while masking the underdeveloped areas of his game.
Biggest weakness: Accuracy
Stat to know: Allen is completing 60.9% of passes traveling 0-10 yards (30th in the NFL) this season.
Allen is a one-speed thrower, and that creates issues in the quick passing game. That includes slants, shallows and quick-decision throws in which Allen has to get the ball out of his hands. There are too many misses there, which can trace back to his lower-body mechanics. While Allen's footwork and throwing base have improved since his college days at Wyoming, he still has to develop more touch on throws. This also shows up on verticals throws, which tells us that he will hover around the 60% completion mark this season. Allen still has a lot of room to grow, but you can see his development this season.
Prediction for the rest of the year: At 6-3, the Bills have a real shot at the playoffs -- if they can manage the Weeks 13-16 stretch with matchups against the Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers and Patriots. Not easy. Allen, however, has had only one disaster game this season -- in Week 4 against the Patriots when he tossed three interceptions and lost a fumble. If he can limit the mistakes, and give this offense a boost in the vertical passing game, Buffalo will sneak into the postseason dance as an AFC wild-card team.
3. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Why he's ranked here: After Freddie Kitchens took over as playcaller for the final eight games in Cleveland in 2018, Mayfield tossed 19 touchdown passes and completed 68.4% of his passes. The film was clean too. The former No. 1 overall pick looked like a developing star. That's why it's tough to figure out his regression this season as the Browns have put more skill talent around him. In fact, of these quarterbacks, Mayfield has the best weapons at his disposal. And don't blame the offensive line alone for Mayfield's struggles. Sitting at a completion rate of 59.9% -- that ranks 30th in the league -- Mayfield slips behind Allen on my list.
Biggest strength: Accuracy off play-action
Stat to know: Mayfield is completing 69.1% of his throws off play-action (13th in the NFL) this season.
Mayfield is a decisive thrower, and he can deliver the ball with anticipation off play-action schemes. Attack tight windows underneath, hit the seams or take a vertical shot. And when he sees it, Mayfield can throw the ball with velocity. Just look at Kitchens' game plan from the Week 10 win over the Bills. Mayfield completed 9 of 14 passes for 123 yards off play-action, and he finished the day with a completion percentage of 68.4. That meshes more with what I studied on the 2018 tape, as he can throw the quick game and use play-action to put defenders in conflict on second-level throws.
Biggest weakness: Turnovers
Stat to know: Mayfield has thrown 12 interceptions (last in the NFL) this season.
After throwing just 14 interceptions over his final two seasons at Oklahoma, Mayfield is already up to 26 interceptions in 22 NFL starts. And while I won't put all those picks on Mayfield, he's giving the ball away far too often. Yes, the Browns have issues in pass protection, and Kitchens plays a role here too, but Mayfield hasn't managed the pocket consistently this season. He has to step up and throw a strike, and Kitchens needs to scheme open some receivers. There are far too many isolation or one-on-one routes in the Cleveland offense this season, which includes red zone throws, where Mayfield's QBR sits at 24.5 (26th in the NFL). Mayfield is a talented thrower, but he has regressed in Year 2.
Prediction for the rest of the season: Getting running back Kareem Hunt on the field in Week 10 provided some much-needed juice to the Cleveland offense. Plus, I liked the game plan from Kitchens in the win over the Bills. Look for Mayfield to push his completion percentage past the 65% mark over the last seven weeks of the season. And with a favorable schedule down the stretch, the Browns will win enough games for Kitchens to return as coach in 2020.
4. Sam Darnold, New York Jets
Why he's ranked here: Playing in a broken Jets offense under Adam Gase -- with no running game and no movement up front -- Darnold's situation is rough. And that has led to poor decision-making from the former No. 3 overall pick, with nine interceptions and a QBR of 42.0, which ranks 26th in the league, this season. Darnold has flashed his high-level ability at times -- just go watch the film from the win over the Cowboys -- but the lack of consistency drops him on my list. Yes, Darnold's mononucleosis earlier this year has stunted his progress, but he has thrown an even 24 touchdown passes and 24 interceptions since entering the league.
Biggest strength: Anticipation
Stat to know: Darnold is completing 69% of passes that travel 0-10 yards (12th in the NFL) this season.
Playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, Darnold has to get the ball out with speed. We know that. He's tied for seventh in the league in average time before pass (2.67 seconds). But it also caters to his ability as an anticipatory thrower. And his QBR jumps to 71.8 on quick-game passes, as opposed to 42.0 overall. Darnold can throw the ball from multiple platforms, while working through his reads -- with speed -- to find open windows underneath. And this has to continue for the Jets to be competitive on offense.
Biggest weakness: Decision-making while under pressure
Stat to know: Darnold has thrown five interceptions versus the blitz, with a QBR of 17.8 (31st in the NFL) this season.
This has been a major issue for Darnold this season. In addition to his inability to pull the trigger consistently on throws down the field, he has been careless with the ball when opposing defenses bring pressure. He's completing just 50% of his passes versus the blitz, which ranks last in the league. And that has led to some questionable throws in critical game moments. The consistency isn't there in Year 2 for Darnold, but he has flashed enough high-end tools to not panic just yet.
Prediction for the rest of the season: Darnold is coming off one of his best games of the season, as he completed 19 of 30 passes for 230 yards in the win over the Giants last Sunday. And there are some winnable games left on the schedule, starting this Sunday against Washington. I expect Gase to scheme up more big-play throws off max protection for Darnold, but the rest of this game plan will have to focus on getting the ball out of his hands quickly until the Jets can rebuild that offensive line in the offseason. That's why 2020 will be so important for him.
5. Josh Rosen, Miami Dolphins
Why he's ranked here: After a year on a three-win Arizona team, the former No. 1 pick was traded in April and now finds himself as a backup for the rebuilding Dolphins. And that makes his evaluation unique. Instead of playing in a system that is built through personnel and scheme to maximize the quarterback's talent -- like we see with Jackson in Baltimore -- Rosen's opportunities have been limited in his first two seasons. That's why he comes in at No. 5 on my list.
Biggest strength: Processing ability from the pocket
Given the situation Rosen waded through in Arizona, and the limited reps he has had in just three starts in Miami, let's pass on the stats here and focus on Rosen's traits as a thrower. He is a pure passer. He can spin the ball from the pocket. And you could make a case that he has the best processing ability of the class. Put him the right system with a good offensive line and some talent at the skill spots? That's when we'll get the best look at his game. Don't give up on Rosen yet, though.
Biggest weakness: Arm talent/mobility
Of all the quarterbacks listed here, Rosen ranks at the bottom in terms of natural arm talent. He's not a velocity thrower. Plus, the lack of mobility has to be mentioned. This is a quarterback who needs to be in the right offensive system, with a capable offensive line, that allows him to develop as a pocket thrower to dice up opposing defenses in the short-to-intermediate passing game. And we simply haven't seen that yet.
Prediction for the rest of the season: The Dolphins will draft a quarterback in April, with eyes on LSU's Joe Burrow, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa or Oregon's Justin Herbert. And that's going to push Rosen out of Miami. Whether he is traded or released, he will be on his third team in three years. Chicago, Denver, Cincinnati and Tennessee could all be in the mix here to bring in Rosen in 2020.