No player makes the most and least sense as a trade target like A.J. Green. Every reason to trade him has a counterreason for why it probably won't happen.
The case for a deal is clear. At least four contenders need a No. 1 receiver, creative general managers are pulling off major trades without blinking, and an elite 2020 free agent watches from the sidelines as his winless Bengals try to preserve the anti-tank sanctity.
Even Green himself seems to understand all of that with his ready-for-anything tone with the local media.
But Green hasn't been healthy in months and isn't practicing this week, which means his only showcase before the Oct. 29 trade deadline would be Week 8 against the Los Angeles Rams. The Bengals are on the record saying they won't trade Green (which doesn't mean much, as Jacksonville just proved with Jalen Ramsey), and the franchise is fiercely loyal to its players.
The only thing left to do is shake out all the scenarios, with help from sources around the league, evaluating Green's worth on the trade and free agent markets, which teams make the most sense and how the player might age.
Jump ahead: Trade fits | Free-agent option
What happens if the Bengals don't trade him?
What's the biggest concern with Green?
That's easy: age and health. Green, 31, is all but guaranteed to rack up 1,000-yard seasons when healthy, but he can't be relied on for that anymore.
Green has missed 19 games and counting since 2016, mostly due to lower-body injuries. That's more than a full season since he signed a four-year, $60 million extension that expires after this season.
Right toe issues derailed his 2018 campaign, and a torn hamstring cost him six games in 2016.
His latest issue is not a routine ankle sprain either. Teams become leery any time torn ligaments are involved, which is reportedly the case here.
Considering the time missed -- he hasn't practiced since July -- many teams want to see him actually move around before entertaining an offer. That gives him limited reps to remind observers of what he does best, if he makes it back by the Rams game.
How much would that affect his trade value?
At least a reasonable amount, depending on the team. One NFC personnel evaluator I spoke to said, "Considering the recent injury history, I think [Cincinnati] can fetch a second-round pick for him," citing his immense talent as worthy of a Day 2 pick.
A few other personnel people agreed, adding that teams can always sweeten a deal with a fourth-to-fifth-round swap for future years. But the consensus is that he's not a first-round player right now unless a team gets aggressive. (Watch: The Rams will blow this thinking out of the water, offering three 1s and conditional Les Snead hair product.)
Green should age better than, say, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, whose performances fizzled in the years after they signed massive extensions. One AFC coach likened Green to a classic car -- still smooth to drive after all these years.
But that still doesn't buffer away the risks.
Where should he go?
These four scenarios are an easy sell all day:
New England Patriots
Green in New England's passing game would help fill the void left by Antonio Brown. He'd be the franchise's best deep threat for Tom Brady since Randy Moss.
San Francisco 49ers
Green as a vertical option to complement tight end George Kittle and that running game in San Francisco would wreck the NFC West picture. At 5-0, the 49ers might be less inclined to disrupt the offense this late into October. But perhaps Green offers what Pierre Garcon couldn't because of injuries: a consistent matchup problem against man coverage.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is one playmaker away from nudging Aaron Rodgers to a second Super Bowl. Marquez Valdes-Scantling can't do it all. Get the man some help! Even when Davante Adams returns, more balance would be ideal.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo needs a first-read option for young quarterback Josh Allen, who wouldn't have to read defenses every play. He could fire deep out routes and savor the results as Green celebrates in the end zone.
Why would the Bengals hold on to him?
This is where Cincinnati's traditional business practices come into play. Several NFL execs believe the Bengals' allergy to change will keep Green in the orange No. 18.
"They are very loyal, so [a trade] would surprise me," said one high-ranking AFC exec.
We're talking about Mike Brown, who didn't fire Marvin Lewis until after last season despite zero playoff wins in 16 seasons, routinely keeps slightly above average talent under contract forever and won't pay for an indoor practice facility (all prospective free agents talk about that last note before signing with Cincinnati, by the way).
Couple all of that with the mysterious personnel structure internally, and Cincinnati simply isn't moved to make moves.
"They are a founding father of the NFL. They don't worry about much," said one veteran NFL agent who's worked on multiple contracts with the team.
The numbers, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information, back that up:
Cincinnati has 35 of its own draft picks on the current roster, tied with the Minnesota Vikings for most in the NFL.
The Bengals have made 11 trades involving rostered players over the past decade, tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the NFL's fewest.
The Cordy Glenn deal in 2018 and the Carson Palmer deal in 2011 were the team's only moves of the past decade involving more than a late-round pick.
But the hold-on-to-your-picks strategy is shifting in the name of good veteran players being moved, so the Bengals could decide to join the fun.
So let's say Cincy keeps Green. Then what?
New coach Zac Taylor gets what he wants -- a morale-boosting receiver to elevate a sagging passing attack for at least half the season. Since Cincinnati doesn't actually mean to tank, giving Taylor a player who knows how to produce first downs isn't the worst concept.
The Bengals believe in Taylor, and they would be wise to surround him with more talent. And Green would be a friendly piece for a new quarterback in 2020. (As we say this, Andy Dalton probably lines up a six-year extension.)
Cincinnati likes to give lengthy contracts, so sometime soon it could offer Green another three- or four-year deal to allow him to retire in Cincinnati, knowing the team would get a future third-round compensatory pick if Green rejects the deal and hits free agency.
Then there's always the franchise tag, which doesn't discriminate by age. The receiver tag will be massive in 2020 -- think upward of $20 million -- which is great for Amari Cooper in Dallas but probably prices out Green.
All that sounds great ... except Green is probably ready to test his worth in March.
How would Green do in free agency?
He'd probably be at least $30-40 million richer -- and that's a modest estimate -- easily surpassing $100 million in career earnings. The best free-agent comparison might be at a different position: safety Earl Thomas.
Thomas earned the big second contract, entered his late 20s with injury issues and still got $14 million per year on a deal from the Baltimore Ravens in March.
With receivers Michael Thomas and Julio Jones hitting the $20 million-per-year mark in recent months, Green is still good enough to at least knock on the door of $15 million. One NFC exec predicted that a range of $12-to-14-million per year was too low for Green, assuming he recovers from the foot issues.
It's also not a stellar free-agency class at receiver. Assuming Cooper stays in Dallas, Green would headline the group over Emmanuel Sanders or Devin Funchess.
What does Green want?
It's natural to read his recent comments and wonder if, in his mind, he is already welcoming a trade.
"Like I said, I've been in this league a long time," Green said this week, per ESPN Bengals reporter Ben Baby. "I already know the ins and outs. At the end of the day, it's a business. This is a business, and I respect anything that happens. But it's always good that the head coach comes out and says [that]. But it didn't take any pressure off me. Like, I didn't hear anything."
Translation: What's good, NFL?