Time was, the NFL trade deadline was something of a joke. I covered baseball for the first 14 years of my sportswriting career, and when I switched to NFL coverage in 2009 I was more than a little stunned by the contrast. Baseball's trade deadline was always a dizzying experience, with teams dealing prospects for (usually expensive) veterans they thought could help put them over the top in that particular season. The NFL deadline was a big nothing. Teams didn't make trades.
But now they do, and they aren't just small ones. Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas, Damon Harrison, Golden Tate and Dante Fowler Jr. were among the players traded last October. And in case you thought that was just a blip or an anomaly, Jalen Ramsey and Marcus Peters have already been traded this month, with the Oct. 29 deadline still more than a week away.
Who's the biggest name that could move before this year's deadline? The answer seems to be Denver Broncos edge rusher Von Miller, who has 2.5 sacks in six games.
No other potential trade target has a Super Bowl MVP award (unless you think Eli Manning is getting traded, which I don't). Miller is only 30 years old, and he's already in the top 30 in league history in sacks (100.5). His 14.5 sacks in 2018 represented the second-highest single-season total of his career. He had at least 10 sacks in seven of his first eight years in the league. This is his ninth. He's a likely Hall of Famer in the prime of his career playing a position so valuable that players who play it almost never become available. If the Broncos decided to trade Miller, he'd be a hotter-than-the-sun trade target.
After calling around and surveying agents and league executives on the topic, here's what we came up with regarding this idea:
Would the Broncos trade Miller?
As of now, interested teams are being told no. It was a "no" two weeks ago when the Broncos were 0-4, and it's a "no" now that they've won their past two games. Miller is a franchise icon and a still-productive player on an affordable contract, and teams keep players like that. Broncos team president John Elway said recently when asked about the possibility of trading veterans such as Miller, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and cornerback Chris Harris Jr.: "We're trying to win football games. No one from our side is on the trading block. We're going to try to continue to win football games." And if you want to believe there's no chance the Broncos are trading Miller, that's the quote to which you'll cling.
However ... team executives always fib about this stuff in public, and even if they're telling the truth, they often change their minds. The Jaguars were telling teams as recently as Saturday that Ramsey wasn't available, and by Tuesday night he was on the Rams. It's not an apples-to-apples situation, since Miller isn't asking to be traded as Ramsey was, but the point is that things can change, and there are people around the league who believe the Broncos would at least listen if the offers were good enough.
Miller has two years left on his contract, and Denver has a second-year star pass-rusher in Bradley Chubb -- on injured reserve for the rest of the season after tearing his ACL -- who'll need to be paid within the next two or three years. It happens, but it's not overly common for teams to pay top-of-market money for two players who play the same position. If the Broncos survey the next couple of years and decide they might have to move on from Miller eventually, it's not outlandish to think they could try to get something of value in return now, while his value is high.
Should the Broncos trade Miller?
Can you ask me again Friday morning? The Broncos play the Chiefs on Thursday night, and while they're heavy underdogs, anything can happen. A victory over Kansas City would improve Denver to 3-4 and one game out of first place. It's tough to trade a difference-making superstar when you're in the race.
A loss would drop the Broncos to 2-5 and put them three games out of first place and could result in a different outlook -- one that could harden with a Week 8 loss in Indianapolis two days before the trade deadline. If they're 2-6 after that game, they could face some tough choices. A critical part of team management is accurate self-assessment, and if the Broncos aren't 2019 contenders -- which not many expected them to be -- then concern for the 2020 season and beyond has to assume a more prominent place on their priority list. Miller could surely help them in 2020, but if they don't plan on giving him another long-term contract, now might be the sweet spot for getting something that makes it worth trading him. Stating the obvious, it's easier to trade a guy when he's 30 than when he's 31 or 32.
Miller's contract is eminently tradable. After this year, it consists of a pair of $17.5 million team options for 2020 and 2021. The team -- be it the Broncos or any acquiring team -- has until the second week of March in each of those years to decide on the option. The salary is high but reasonable for a pass-rusher of Miller's talent and résumé.
What would happen if the Broncos traded Miller?
Denver would save the remainder of his $17 million 2019 salary -- so, $9 million if they dealt him on deadline day. They'd carry dead-money charges of $7.625 million on this year's cap and again next year. The acquiring team would then inherit the $17.5 million team options for 2020 and 2021.
So if that team decided it didn't want to keep Miller, it could decide by early March not to exercise the option, and he would become an unrestricted free agent. Obviously, if that team paid a significant price to get Miller, it presumably would want to keep him beyond the end of this year, which means any team that acquired him probably would engage his agent in contract extension talks, if only to get an idea of what he'd be looking for so that it could budget for the next couple of years.
What would happen if the Broncos didn't trade Miller?
The Broncos would then become the team in the above example, having to decide by the second week in March whether to accept or decline the option and, potentially, engage Miller in contract extension talks.
Who would be interested in Miller if the Broncos decided to trade him?
More or less every team. Pass-rusher might be the toughest position other than quarterback to find on the market. Almost every team needs pass-rushers, and contending teams could see him as the type of difference-maker that could put them over the top and launch a Super Bowl run this year.
The Eagles stand out as a team that could use the pass-rush help (or the help on defense in general). The Raiders are a surprise contender that has been looking for pass-rush help since trading Khalil Mack last September (though the Broncos probably wouldn't want to trade him to a division rival). Baltimore, Houston, Indianapolis ... maybe the Rams? Kansas City? New England? The Broncos would encounter a robust market.
What could the Broncos expect to receive in return?
The consensus among those to whom I spoke was that it's not inconceivable for Denver to get a first-round pick and something else in return if it puts Miller on the market.
The Rams gave the Jaguars a third-round pick and a fifth-round pick for Fowler at last year's deadline, and while he was only 24 at the time, he was also a disappointing player who'd fallen out of favor in Jacksonville. L.A. was taking a flier on his talent, and it worked out.
Miller's experience, accomplishments and status as a certain down-the-stretch difference-maker would make him worth much more -- as would the likelihood that multiple teams would be bidding.
Will Miller be traded?
This is just based on my own informal polling of a few knowledgeable people around the league, but I would say about 30%-40% of the people with whom I spoke think Denver will end up moving Miller.
"He's still good, and he means a lot to them. In the end, I don't see them pulling the trigger," one team executive told me.
Another said they thought the offers would get to the point in which Elway would be tempted. I wouldn't bet on it happening, but I can't completely rule it out. The NFL trade deadline is a lot crazier than it used to be.