Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 6's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers. Plus, they make a few predictions for the season.
Dive into our analysts' takes on who has been dominant, whom they're worried about and more.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 6?
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Eagles (+3) over Vikings. Minnesota's offense bounced back last week, but quarterback Kirk Cousins faced little adversity against the struggling Giants defense. The Philadelphia defense is pressuring quarterbacks at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and I wouldn't be surprised if Cousins and the Vikings' passing attack comes back to earth.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated, senior writer: Dolphins (+3.5) over Redskins. Washington is a complete mess, but it's still trying to win. Dolphins management is laser focused on securing the top spot in the 2020 draft. No matter. The Dolphins will get their first victory of the season, while Washington drops to 0-6 in interim coach Bill Callahan's debut.
Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: Buccaneers (+2) over Panthers. The Panthers may have the better record, but both teams come out about even (and about league average) in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. The Bucs' defense is best in the ways that might help them slow down Christian McCaffrey: No. 1 in defensive DVOA against the run and No. 1 against running backs as receivers.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Lions (+4.5) over Packers. There was a time when no one would consider picking the Lions to win in Wisconsin, where they lost 24 consecutive games from 1991 to 2014, but they have won three of their past four games there. Plus, the Lions are coming off a bye while the Packers have played consecutive draining games against the Eagles and Cowboys.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Dolphins (+3.5) over Redskins. That's right, the Dolphins will find their way into the win column Sunday, taking it to the Redskins after a week off for Miami and a coaching change for the Redskins. Prior to their bye, the Dolphins showed a few signs of life on offense; specifically, quarterback Josh Rosen had a few moments of promise that reminded us why he was a coveted prospect just a year-and-a-half ago.
Let's reset the NFC East: Which team will win the division, and how many teams will make the playoffs?
Kimes: Philadelphia. I picked the Eagles to win the Super Bowl before the season started, and while they've been hit hard by the injury bug, they're still the most talented team in the division. The next four weeks on their schedule are tough, but after that stretch, they get the Dolphins, Redskins and Giants twice.
Reid: Dallas. I get that the Cowboys have had a couple of rough weeks, but they will still get it done. Let's not forget what the Cowboys have on both offense and defense. Philadelphia will join Dallas in the playoffs.
Schatz: Philadelphia. I picked the Eagles before the season and our playoff odds now favor them 54% to 42%. Doug Pederson's aggressive coaching and an easier remaining schedule than Dallas will make the difference. The Eagles will be the only East team in the playoffs, because the NFC playoff race is going to be very tight and will come down to tiebreakers, where beating up on the AFC East isn't going to help the Cowboys.
Seifert: Philadelphia. The NFC East will be a close, two-team race down the stretch and could very well be decided in a Week 16 matchup against the Cowboys in Philadelphia. Put aside all the specific matchups and analytics and ask yourself this question: Have you seen anything in the past few weeks to suggest the Cowboys would be likely to go into Lincoln Financial Field and beat the Eagles in a December game?
Yates: Philadelphia. The Eagles will win the division and two teams will make the playoffs. Teams do not make their own schedules, but it should have come as no surprise that Dallas would look ferocious after three weeks against a soft early-season run. The Cowboys will make the postseason, but ultimately I view Philly as the slightly superior team, though the secondary concerns are founded and must be improved.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Kimes: Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette. He rushed for more than 100 yards again, which is good news for fantasy owners. Bad news? He's slated to face the Saints' fearsome defensive line, which for the second week in a row didn't allow an opposing back to rush for more than 35 yards.
Reid: Vikings WR Stefon Diggs. I'm picking Diggs because he has been among the biggest flops this season, so why should this week be any different? With Adam Thielen (7 catches, 130 yards, 2 TDs) reconnecting with Vikings QB Kirk Cousins last week, expect Diggs' long funk to continue. Something has to change with the Cousins-Thielen-Diggs situation. And soon.
Schatz: Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett. The Browns allow only about 50 yards per game to opposing No. 1 receivers, and given the state of their run defense, this seems like a game where the Seahawks will really try to move the ball on the ground.
Seifert: Rams RB Todd Gurley. Beyond the Rams' obvious attempts to manage Gurley's workload this season -- he has 42% fewer touches at this point than he did through the same period in 2018 -- we need to start recognizing the 49ers' defense as a pretty legitimate force. Through a quarter of the season, it ranks fifth in rushing yards allowed and second via pass.
Yates: Eagles QB Carson Wentz. Reminder: We consider players ranked outside of our top 10 at quarterback as non-starters for the week, and while Wentz has been hot of late and the weapons are getting healthier in Philly, the Eagles face a difficult foe this weekend in Minnesota on the road. The Vikings are a top-10 pass defense in terms of yards per game allowed and yards per attempt allowed. Unlike the Vikings' first two home games where the contests got out of hand and some "junk time yards" entered the mix, I expect this game to be a competitive, grind-it-out victory in which Wentz won't pile up useless fourth-quarter stats.
Teddy Bridgewater got a one-year, $7.25 million deal to stay in New Orleans this offseason. What will his contract next offseason look like, and which team will sign him?
Kimes: Tennessee Titans for three years and $50 million. By my count, the teams that could -- emphasis on could -- be in the market for a quarterback are the Dolphins, Titans, Bengals, Broncos, Buccaneers and Bears. The first two teams pick high in the draft; I think Tampa Bay and Chicago stick with their guys. I think Denver will opt to move onto Drew Lock by then. Given the diminished market, I don't think Tennessee will have to pay close to what Jacksonville gave Nick Foles (though he didn't have much of a market either).
Reid: It will be somewhere between $45 million and $50 million. With Marcus Mariota in the final year of his deal, Tennessee could be a great landing spot for Bridgewater.
Schatz: New Orleans Saints for three years and $48 million. Drew Brees may retire, especially if the Saints can make it back to the Super Bowl. If he exits the stage, it makes sense for both the Saints and Bridgewater to stick with a marriage that has worked well so far.
Seifert: Saints for three years and between $10 million and $60 million. The Titans seems like a logical destination, but would they view Bridgewater as a fundamental improvement over Marcus Mariota? Both are relatively conservative passers and quiet leaders. There is no reason to think that Brees will retire, or that the Saints would push him out. But Bridgewater has already demonstrated that he won't just take any starting job. The Saints will make Bridgewater the NFL's highest-paid backup with starter money available if and when Brees departs.
Yates: Titans for three years and $45 million. I believe the market for Bridgewater will center around the Saints and teams that are talented enough not to bottom out this season and be in a spot to select a top quarterback in the draft. Tennessee checks that box and has no presumptive starter under contract beyond this season.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 3.
Kimes: Dolphins WR Preston Williams. Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points, on average, to wide receivers. Williams leads all Miami players in targets this season. Rosen has been good early in games, and I wouldn't be surprised if he and Williams hook up for a few big gains.
Reid: 49ers RB Tevin Coleman. He was only in the fringe category because he has been sidelined for most of the season with an ankle injury. Well, based on how hard he ran (16 rushes, 97 yards, one TD) in the San Francisco 49ers' 31-3 dismantling of the Browns, Coleman is a no-brainer start in Week 6.
Schatz: Redskins RB Adrian Peterson. Bill Callahan has expressed his desire to establish the run now that he's running the show in Washington. The Miami defense ranks second in most fantasy points allowed to running backs. This may be the one game on the schedule where Washington will have enough of a lead to make Callahan's desire to run more not ridiculous.
Seifert: Redskins RB Chris Thompson. There is every reason to think Callahan is going to run the ball all afternoon in Miami, in part to protect his quarterbacks and in part to capitalize on a Dolphins defense that is giving up more rushing yards per game than any other NFL team. Thompson should get some work along with Peterson in the backfield, and when they do throw the ball, look for Thompson to be on the receiving end frequently.
Yates: Falcons WR Mohamed Sanu. He's on pace for nearly 93 catches this season, asserting his always reliable skill set on a weekly basis. He has double-digit scoring in four of five games this season and should have yet another productive day against a porous Cardinals secondary.