Too soon to think about Super Bowl LIV? Nonsense. Through four weeks of the NFL season, the 2019 playoff picture is slowly starting to clear up. Championship favorites are emerging, and it's the teams you might guess -- sort of. The New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs and ... San Francisco 49ers are the lone unbeatens left.
So which teams have the best chance to make the Super Bowl? That's where the Football Power Index (FPI) comes in. To produce the 10 most likely Super Bowl LIV matchups, FPI uses its strength ratings for each team to simulate the season 20,000 times, so the likelihood is determined by not only how good teams are now but how easy their paths are the rest of the way.
Here are the 10 most likely matchups that occurred in those 20,000 simulations:
1. Patriots vs. Cowboys
FPI chance to happen: 8%
Number to know: Tom Brady will grab most of the headlines in this matchup, but Dak Prescott leads the league in Total QBR at 86.6, six spots ahead of Brady (65.6). Plus, Dallas leads the league in pass block win rate -- an ESPN metric powered by NFL Next Gen Stats -- meaning Prescott is getting better pass protection than any other quarterback.
What makes this an interesting matchup: Last season, Bill Belichick took down a coaching prodigy in Super Bowl LIII. This time, will 31-year-old Kellen Moore, the Cowboys' offensive coordinator, be able to scheme up his nouveau offense to overcome an all-time great coaching opponent?
2. Chiefs vs. Cowboys
FPI chance to happen: 7%
Number to know: These teams rank Nos. 1 and 2 in both offensive efficiency and offensive FPI. In other words, they've been the best offensive teams, and we expect that to continue.
What makes this is an interesting matchup: Prescott vs. Patrick Mahomes. They're the two leaders in Total QBR -- separated by a tenth of a point -- and neither team boasts anything particularly special on defense. We'd be in for a shootout ... and both quarterbacks could be in line for mammoth contracts this offseason.
3. Patriots vs. 49ers
FPI chance to happen: 7%
Number to know: Wait, the 49ers? Yes, FPI is head over heels for San Francisco through three games. One reason for Kyle Shanahan's success: His offense is running play-action on 38% of its dropbacks -- and it's working. The 49ers have averaged 10.6 yards per dropback on play-action and 7.0 yards on all other plays.
What makes this is an interesting matchup: Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Brady. The man once believed to be Brady's successor now taking on the GOAT. Plus, if the 49ers win, the sweet irony of the Patriots shipping him to the NFC only to see Garoppolo hurt New England anyway. And maybe Super Bowl week also could solve the mystery of why the Patriots landed only a second-round pick for him.
4. Patriots vs. Rams
FPI chance to happen: 7%
Number to know: New England's secondary is on fire so far, and it would again prove a challenge for Rams quarterback Jared Goff. We know Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore is elite, but this season teammate Jason McCourty has held opponents to just a 36% completion percentage when he is the nearest defender to the target, the lowest among corners with 20 such plays, per Next Gen Stats.
What makes this is an interesting matchup: The rematch!
5. Chiefs vs. 49ers
FPI chance to happen: 7%
Number to know: Mahomes throws into tight windows (1 yard of separation or less) just 9% of the time, third lowest in the league, per Next Gen Stats. But it's actually much more impressive than that, because the two quarterbacks ahead of him on that list are Kirk Cousins and Drew Brees, who throw the ball much shorter than Mahomes and thus have an easier time finding receivers with separation. That stat is a result of a combination of skills from Mahomes, his receivers and Andy Reid, but the point is the quarterback doesn't throw many dangerous passes, and that makes him tough to stop.
What makes this an interesting matchup: The 49ers' pass rush hasn't completely put it together yet, but Dee Ford, DeForest Buckner and Nick Bosa have the potential to be devastating. Would San Francisco be able to wreak enough havoc on Mahomes to slow him down?
6. Chiefs vs. Rams
FPI chance to happen: 7%
Number to know: 105. That's how many points these teams scored when they faced off against each other on Monday Night Football a year ago. There'd be fireworks again.
What makes this an interesting matchup: Two of the sport's biggest young stars in different capacities going against each other: Mahomes and Sean McVay. Plus, another revenge game for Rams cornerback Marcus Peters against his old team.
7. Patriots vs. Saints
FPI chance to happen: 5%
Number to know: Saints receiver Michael Thomas is on fire again this season. See for yourself:
Michael Thomas' route chart on targets, via NFL Next Gen Stats. Cumulatively those passes had an expected completion percentage of 71%, but he has caught 81% of those targets. Red = complete, blue = incomplete, green = touchdown.
What makes this is an interesting matchup: Brady and Brees -- two legendary quarterbacks in their 40s -- each trying to add to their Super Bowl tally. Though Brees is out with an injured thumb now, he should be back long before then.
8. Chiefs vs. Saints
FPI chance to happen: 5%
Number to know: In 48 pass attempts this season, Brees has thrown only 20-plus yards downfield on 2% of his tosses. That's quite the contrast to Mahomes, who is at 17% on 156 attempts. The 24-year-old Mahomes chucks it down the field with the best of them.
What makes this an interesting matchup: Offensive firepower in every way. The quarterbacks, sure. But also the playmakers -- Alvin Kamara to Travis Kelce to Thomas -- and the head coaches.
9. Patriots vs. Packers
FPI chance to happen: 4%
Number to know: The Patriots have run man coverage 71% of the time this season, the second-highest rate in the league, according to ESPN pass coverage metrics powered by Next Gen Stats. That's not good for Aaron Rodgers, who has been much better against zone (7.6 yards per dropback) than man (5.6 yards) this season.
What makes this an interesting matchup: Two of the all-time greats at QB going to head-to-head. It's actually Rodgers who has hit his decline first -- he ranks just 13th in Total QBR since 2017 -- but he can negate that by earning a ring over Brady.
10. Chiefs vs. Packers
FPI chance to happen: 4%
Number to know: Rookie safety Darnell Savage has been incredible out of the gate for the Packers. Opponents are averaging just 3.4 yards per target when the first-round pick is the nearest defender to the target, and Savage has tallied one interception and three passes defensed.
What makes this an interesting matchup: The Packers' defense has the fourth-best expected points added (EPA) per play on dropbacks. Green Bay will need a stout defense against the Chiefs, who average the highest EPA per play on offensive dropbacks.